Meeting of Minds – June 2018

Published on: June 28th, 2018

In this Meeting of Minds, Julian looks at Financial Conditions and the risk that an accelerative USD up-move will prove to be a catalyst for the deterioration of global liquidity conditions. Raoul, on the other hand, examines some of the structural fractures in the world order and highlights interesting charts that have caught his attention.


  • SR
    Steve R.
    28 June 2018 @ 10:54
    Raoul - I find your point about world events happening too fast really resonating. I've felt exactly the same way for the last couple of years. It feels like the world is riding an accelerating exponential curve to self-destruction.
  • jm
    james m.
    28 June 2018 @ 17:19
    great read chaps!
  • RM
    R M.
    28 June 2018 @ 19:16
    You two chaps are very thoughtful, and I read your pieces with great interest. But I do want to add that methinks the risk of a USA flash crash have risen, not receded. International markets, such as IXUS, will shortly have the 20wk/50wk sell signal, and have already had the 10month MA sell signal (another favorite). Since the Fed no longer has the back of the SPX, everyone has become momentum traders, and they are all watching the 200 day, which also happens to be the 10month. If it breaks on a news event (gee what likely news event, such as indictments/constitutional crisis might spook this market??), the move down will be so sudden that everyone watching that 200 day/10month will be trapped. Possible upside not worth the risk, especially as we get to elections in the USA. Good time to exit stocks is now, wait for better entries. Recession will follow the market drop, as the folks holding up the spending in the US economy are the wealthy stockholders, who will see their wealth deteriorate. Gold price remains the enigma of the year. Cash is king right now.
  • TH
    Thomas H.
    29 June 2018 @ 00:35
    How many think it was appropriate for Raoul to send an email that he is going to update us with a special report on August 9 in order to get us to renew our subscription?
    • DB
      David B.
      7 July 2018 @ 14:24
      Hi Miguel, Although I didn't like the marketing tactic (felt like it was insulting my intelligence), I agree, the work both put out, is very good and requires a decent price tag. Also agree, that both Julian and Raoul seem like nice genuine decent guy's.
    • MG
      Miguel G.
      5 July 2018 @ 15:52
      I understand everyone's point of view and you're entitled to your opinion, but I'll remind you guys the quality of work that we receive from macro insiders is incredibly good. The price point at which they sell it at is VERY REASONABLE. You want quality work you have to pay for it simple as that. I understand everyone's concern, but I personally don't really care what sales tactic Raoul decides to use I'm a macro insider sub for life. Maybe I'm naive but they both seem like very nice genuine people and Im very happy with the service I subscribed to.
    • gg
      gurdeep g.
      4 July 2018 @ 12:09
      Sadly if the economy isn't on brink of recession ever year or dollar to move higher and life on earth is over as we know it...who would sign up to RV. The games up. Posted my last comment on this platform too
    • MS
      Morten S.
      4 July 2018 @ 11:23
      OMG yes extremely inappropriate. You caught him now Thomas! My first and last comment on this platform, but seriously guys do you really think Raul needs to persuade people to follow his work? Sad shit that this is "hotly debated".
    • RB
      Richard B.
      2 July 2018 @ 16:56
      I thought the cheap marketing trick from Raoul and Julian was very inappropriate. I'm not renewing my subscription. Any good ideas that Raoul puts out he sticks on the main real vision channel a week or month later. The ideas he talks about are so long term that it doesn't matter if you have to wait to hear about them. I really think this service was overkill. Your not getting any special secrets here. #I'mOUT
    • gg
      gurdeep g.
      30 June 2018 @ 08:21
      Sell the fear, subscribers will follow... that’s how I have read the last few emails. (I don’t care how many dislikes this comment gets)
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      29 June 2018 @ 09:00
      I second that. That is very cheap Marketing tricks. If what he is working on Right now is so important he should get it out now.
    • DB
      David B.
      29 June 2018 @ 01:12
      I must admit, I didn't like it.
  • BA
    Bob A.
    29 June 2018 @ 04:11
    Raoul, I agree with your thoughts, but I have to admit that after reading about 50% of your section I scrolled up to see if you were quoting Neil Howe. Good Stuff.
  • DP
    Devraj P.
    3 July 2018 @ 15:05
    Sometime ago RV distillery was maintaining trade table. Can we have some sort of tracking the ideas discussed and performance over time here?
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    5 July 2018 @ 15:47
    Julian love the explanation as to why financial conditions continue to be loose. It all makes perfect sense, but Im stuck with this lingering question which is what causes the fed to step away from monetary policy and finally stop this game of smashing interest rates in to the ground? My best guess would be it has to be sustained inflation which would make me think these 20 plus years of global disinflation may be at an important juncture where the return of a multi year inflation environment becomes the norm. Naturally keep monetary policy at bay and flipping equities and bonds back to their historically positive correlation. Thoughts?
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    6 July 2018 @ 12:46
    Julian/Raoul, what level would you be watching in the US dollar as your line in the sand. Better stated what level would have to break in order to make you question your thesis of a strong dollar? I personally think we can easily see a 100 dxy just trying to figure out where I could step in and add to my position.