Meeting of Minds – May 2018

Published on: May 28th, 2018

This month Raoul and Julian share details from the recent meetings they’ve had with clients. Julian highlights some of the discussions from MI2 client meetings in the US North East, revealing where macro portfolio managers are investing their energies. Raoul releases the final part of his latest GMI report, which gives a peek into the world of some of the most famous investors who showed up at the world-renowned Global Macro Investor Round Table in early April.

Comments

  • GC
    Gerard C.
    6 June 2018 @ 12:53
    Thanks to both of you for putting in the legwork
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    4 June 2018 @ 06:13
    Great Discussion, but I find myself frustrated reviewing the charts, some of which are questionable….. The Crude Oil Demand China (pg-8) is very "iffy"; the entire ordinate axis has a range less than 10% of the absolute number, and only across 2 years. The roll-over is from 11.9 to 11.8 mm BBLS (less than 1%), I would put forward this graph shows noise. Also, please chart to allow easier direct comparison. A prime example on Page-9: "China Total imports" (on 2006-2018 time scale) immediately above with "China monthly storage” (from 2010-2018) could easily be plotted on same time scales. Then we can compare directly, - perhaps leave some charts half-blank, as I understand that data may be scarce/unavailable.
  • JM
    Jason M.
    3 June 2018 @ 15:42
    Excellent work gentlemen. I love this format.
  • RI
    R I.
    28 May 2018 @ 17:01
    Raoul & Julian - how would stagflation change your views? To quote Raoul, “the future of the global economy is not inflation and higher growth but lower growth and disinflation.” Isn’t that a rather simplistic conclusion for an increasingly complex macro environment with overtly loose monetary policy. Why not at least discuss the possibility of lower growth and higher inflation (i.e. stagflation)?
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      1 June 2018 @ 14:55
      Hi R I. As I've mentioned, I view the policy end game as rapid nominal GDP ie real growth plus inflation, with the objective of monetising the debt accumulated by all groups from govts to individuals. In an ideal world policy makers would like 2% ish inflation and high real growth of 3%. However, if the growth isn't achievable they go with higher inflation. So in that sense we could have a "stagflationary environment". But at the end of the day the objective is achieve 5%+ nominal GDP. Hope that helps?
  • CG
    Craig G.
    31 May 2018 @ 01:04
    Is there any way to trade the FX vol or the MOVE vol for retail investors?
  • PG
    Paul G.
    30 May 2018 @ 05:24
    may sound duh - but how would one register / take part in the Monax ICO? Is there an exchange that is offering it? I checked their website but can't see anywhere to register interest.
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      30 May 2018 @ 11:45
      "Token sale date TBA" Icogens.com/monax
  • JC
    Jason C.
    30 May 2018 @ 00:09
    Really fresh and helpful macro insiders piece. Love the curated incorporation of feedback/thoughts/ideas from both personal and client meetings. Very insightful.
  • GS
    George S.
    29 May 2018 @ 11:17
    Bang! Fantastic issue!
  • WD
    Wim D.
    29 May 2018 @ 07:29
    Top one! Is there an actual trade idea for that ICO?
  • IO
    Igor O.
    28 May 2018 @ 18:33
    This one is a blockbuster!
    • IO
      Igor O.
      28 May 2018 @ 18:41
      Liked blockchain compared to the big bang. Hope to see more from this guy.
  • jm
    joeri m.
    28 May 2018 @ 18:27
    For all the gold bugs among us. We all have been waiting for the breakout of the Head and Shoulders bottom. The last months a lot have called for a breakout but sentiment was always too high (I use the daily sentiment index, it works very well for gold, for currencies, it doesn't work so well, so be careful when you use it) so the breakout didn't happen. What we are seeing now in gold is that it broke down from its trading range of 1310-1360. Sentiment is getting very bearish right now. Positioning is extremely low. The gold-silver ratio is at a crucial point that indicated big bottoms in gold over the last two decades. I'm looking for gold to go a little bit lower (1240 would be ideal). At this point, sentiment and positioning will be like at the beginning of 2016, we all know how great gold and the miners performed the following months. Julian's comment that compares the inflation situation right now to 2010-2011 provides the last missing piece. The fundamental reason why gold will break out this time. 2010-2011 was obviously an amazing time for gold and that is when Julian's company price model went straight up. The other time was 2016. And now, it will be in the coming months. I think gold is finally ready for the breakout, We are getting the positioning, sentiment, technicals, and now the fundamentals.