This month, our contributors focus their attention on 2 essential parts of the US economy – consumption and inflation. With consumption now an unprecedented 70% of GDP, understanding consumption patterns will be crucial to determine the timing of the next recession. Raoul expects 2018 to be the turning point. Julian, on the other hand, looks at the US inflationary impulse, which leads him to strengthen his call for higher bond yields before Christmas. He goes on to look at what implications this may have for other assets including USD.