Comments
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PNJulian, do you have any thoughts or counterpoints on Raoul’s idea that financial conditions are actually very tight despite the Goldman chart saying otherwise? Thanks.
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WMSimply excellent reading gentlemen. I become more nervous by the month although essentially I currently own no stocks nor any bonds, mostly sitting in cash and watching closely for the strong recommendations on investment action from you as time goes on (of course taking into account the usual investment advice disclaimers etc. etc.)
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agGood article - some thoughts - from Rosenberg to Hedgeye - Raoul is more right than Julian on this one in my view - We shall see.
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DYComments to Raoul section : 1) some amazing charts! Please show to Mr Trump who thinks US economy is strongest in 300 years; yet it should not be a reason to stop hiking as debt grew due extremely low rates and this needs to be normalized ; 2) as I can find about 95 percent of mortgages in US are fixed interest rate. So Fed raising does not really matter to them? Only 5-6 percent of mortgages are adjusted rates and even they are usually fixed for 10-15 years (seeing some info on Forbes); hence I am not convinced Fed hikes are so impactful to mortgages? 3) Farms: Raoul truly doesn't understand commodities well! If crops are large it means supply exceeds demand and prices fall! It's not just about dollar! Agri prices only rising when there is huge drop in crops and with ever better technology, seeds, etc the crops are ever more resilient and ever better. 4) truly amazing how the official inflation is calculated when cost of healthcare and fuel and education has risen so much!? Thanks overal great charts!
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KCJulian, I found your remark on Powell hilarious but so important, there will be a Powell put at some level of a decline in the stock market. Hopefully you will have some insight on that level for us to watch. "He will be feeling hot under the collar if a fall in equity prices is attributed to him going “loco”. "
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RMGents, excellent work! Same question for both of you please: When the fed starts to ease again, is there a concern that the fed may lose control of the long end of the curve? (Roaul has tweeted he is alrady in the 10 year, so I guess your not worried?) And how best to position for the ease? Gold or treasuries?
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HOCurrently Fed and eurodollar futures are pricing 2-3 rate hikes next year. My view has been that Dec will be the last one, and terminal value for the Fed balance sheet will be much bigger than initially planned. They should wrap up balance sheet shrinkage in Q1 next year IMO. This matches with much of Raoul's analysis. If this happens, and markets reprice based on such adjusted expectations. How would this change your outlook? Especially where it applies to the max range for the current USD cycle. Thanks for a great update.
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CPThoughts on the strategy of 1) shortening fixed income maturities for now, 2) awaiting interest rates to peak (probably in sync with the economy rolling over) and then 3) extending maturities. And if we finally have our "come to Jesus" moment with all the debt we have accumulated forcing rates up, stay short. The likelihood of our finally facing our borrowing binge dramatically increases going into a recession.
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SNAwesome in depth analysis from both Raoul and Julian! As usual, so hard to sort out the short to medium term scenarios. Maybe Raoul is right and 'real life' economic conditions are at their peak and about to start falling steadily, and take everything else down with them. Or perhaps as Julian states the topping process can be more rounded, and the Fed can keep tightening longer. Like Grant always likes to say, "it's going to be a hard needle to thread". Politics and behavioral psychology dominate the short term moves ... Would be great to see both your updated views (and where you agree) on the long term adjustment that seems inevitable here and how / when to position for it. I have trouble seeing a future where my dollar doesn't buy a lot less than it did in the past... Thanks!
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KRBest piece ever
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apI am confused as there have been no trade recommendations with entry exit levels during this volatile period ?
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apI am confused as there have been no trade recommendations with entry exit levels during this volatile period ?
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apI am confused as there have been no trade recommendations with entry exit levels during this volatile period ?
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apI am confused as there have been no trade recommendations with entry exit levels during this volatile period ?
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apI am confused as there have been no trade recommendations with entry exit levels during this volatile period ?
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apI am confused as there have been no trade recommendations with entry exit levels during this volatile period ?
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RMGood Read
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DYJulian hi, you said in below comments "if and when the Fed starts to ease again for me thats the signal that yields take two steps forward". Would this be bullish or bearish for metals like Gold? Thank you
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LDHi guys i have a question, i have literally copied & pasted the following sentence from a historic comment - "I look at US macro and the data is pointing to the economy slowing down in Q3 in rate of change terms" My question is - how do i go about looking @ the data and then decide that the economy is going to grow or decline in a future Quarter? maybe this is covered on the rvtv platform (apologies if it is) if so which video? if not maybe an idea for a future video perhaps OR maybe some body could give directions how i could achieve the above Question right here if possible. Thanks
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PMFascinating and useful to see how Residential Fixed Investment as a percentage of Total Fixed Investment leads ISM. This continued analysis has really changed my trading, especially my research approach. Would be grateful for more discussion (or review) on the EDZ0 trade from May.
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FM50 million 'new home' sales since 2007? This must be existing home sales?
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TWHi Raoul and Julian, In general, what is your weapon-of-choice to play the currency markets? Options spreads? I’m sure it’s a case-by-case basis based on r/r etc., but just generally what are some of your favorite instruments? Thanks, Tim
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MDHi Raoul, Very interested to hear more re your tweet earlier today about lightening up "a lot of risk in short eq's, short commods, long dollars, but not bonds". Suppose shld reduce short EEM and EUR/USD too? Going long anything? Best,
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MGCan we get an email alert please when a new post is uploaded to macro insider subs
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AAHi Raoul. Is there any data you can pull out on the 401K.. in total how much is invested in which assets classes and showing trend.... to concur with ur view i am looking for when 401k balances will start to reduce and which assets classes are the money coming out of