Of Egos & Accidents

Published on: April 14th, 2021

First GameStop, now Greensill and Archegos. The early fissures in market structure are beginning to appear. But Bear Stearns (2007) tells you things take time. Emblematic they may be, but FOMO remains the dominant factor in a financially repressed world of loose fiscal and monetary policy. With re-opening on the horizon, Risk Management holds the key.

Comments

  • AA
    ALLEN A.
    21 April 2021 @ 04:04
    Hi Julian, Thanks for the great write up. In your conclusion: "Bull markets climb a wall of worry. There are certainly plenty of things to worry about, some of which I have mentioned above. Bezzles, liquidity risks, extended positioning, rising yields on the back of inflation, underperforming EM darlings. We could add to the wall of worry the mishandling of Covid vaccinations in Europe, fears of third waves and mutations, as well as a series of recent escalations of geopolitical tensions: USA/China/Taiwan, Russia/Ukraine, Iranian nuclear ambitions." Is it ever going to be time to buy VIX or VXX call options for a direct vol play? *I've literally, read one paper on volatility ever, so please forgive the naïve question. Regards, Allen
    • Dd
      David d.
      26 April 2021 @ 19:47
      great question... JB ??
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      14 May 2021 @ 11:33
      Vix is a horrible way to hedge against volatility. Most of the products are negative carry. They often involve high fees and you need to buy near lows and sell out pretty early for the trade to have any hope of making any money. As a general rule I know a lot of PMs who swear by selling VIX related ETFs when vol is elevated as a positive carry mean reversion trade. Generally if I were going to hedge using volatility (and hedging is a lot trickier than simply dialing down risk) I would not use VIX but index options.
  • JG
    John G.
    17 April 2021 @ 05:43
    thank you Julian, i enjoyed your observations!
  • KH
    Kavi H.
    16 April 2021 @ 07:33
    Hello Julian, Thanks for the update. I wanted to ask your opinion (If any) of buy the Hong Kong listed China H-Share ETF (2828) as getting EM exposure? Or has that got too much tech exposure to fall within your framework? Thanks Kavi
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 April 2021 @ 14:49
      At first blush one might argue its a little cheap although it has been in a bit of a downtrend. But I dont have any strong view. Let me ask JB.
  • km
    ken m.
    16 April 2021 @ 08:00
    These reports and the insider discussions are worth the price of admission alone, in my view.
  • JW
    Joel W.
    16 April 2021 @ 07:34
    Thanks for another well written report. Following along most of the trades. Of all of these, the UK one seems to accelerate the most right now.
  • SS
    Steven S.
    15 April 2021 @ 15:32
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