Own the Change

Published on: February 26th, 2021

Raoul’s offering for Macro Insiders Deep Dive this month is a bumper edition. He starts off by reviewing some of the extraordinary events of 2020, putting them into a context that is replete with surprises. As 2020 barrelled us into the largest recession of our lifetimes, a global pandemic stopped the world, everything from US elections to Brexit highlighted political polarisation, the money printer saved the day, and equities rallied to new all-time highs as bond yields made new record lows. How all this resolves, will make for a dynamic 2021. But will it be a macro world or a more nuanced mix of macro and micro?


  • KS
    Kevin S.
    5 March 2021 @ 03:52
    Are you able to suggest ways to get exposure to the “monsoon” sector?
  • BN
    Barrett N.
    2 March 2021 @ 19:29
    R, huge fan of your work and your ability to weave the narrative in a straightforward pragmatic no BS manner! Thank you! BN
  • SK
    S K.
    2 March 2021 @ 06:45
    Unlike prices in markets which are determined by buyers and sellers, facts in science are not determined by fact checkers, news writers or government bureaucrats. I know fear sells, but geez, Raoul's view on the virus makes me wonder what other flawed perceptions of reality have seeped into his thought process on markets.
    • SB
      Samuel B.
      2 March 2021 @ 16:12
      The central banks, the treasury, and the military seem to have a lot to do with prices as well.
  • CH
    Christopher H.
    1 March 2021 @ 20:03
    Besides the great information overall, i love the fact that you point out, that steak is actually a superfood!
  • JM
    Jimmy M.
    28 February 2021 @ 19:20
    Raoul, Can you clarify this for me? "I want to buy SPX March 31st puts for 100 points." March 31st exp 3100 puts? Thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      1 March 2021 @ 16:41
      Was supposed to read 3600 puts
  • TC
    Tascha C.
    28 February 2021 @ 18:56
    US Covid cases started to decline sharply right around the time this was published. Predicting the future is tricky business.
  • HK
    Hendrik K.
    28 February 2021 @ 16:52
    Dear Raoul, many thanks for sharing this here. As this is from January I would be curious on your and Julians view on the current increase in yields and the breakdown of Tesla as well as outflows of ARK. Cheers
  • MS
    Mark S.
    28 February 2021 @ 00:22
    Raoul great work. Would you adjust your gold call? Gold just broke 1760 a key support. I can't chart it here . Then on Friday Ed Harrison showed a chart gold and real yields (inverse) correlate nicely. You commented on twitter that Dan T was right, gold is a hedge against deflation, not inflation. So I am hearing conflicting arguments. What do you think?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      28 February 2021 @ 00:29
      I think its likely to go to 1685. It acts more like a deflation hedge than inflation but I suspect that if new wave of fiat debasement takes hold, it will find its feet. Remember, that debasement occurs when things are weak, so gold is a growth hedge these days.