Pro Macro: Flash Update – June 2, 2023

Published on: June 2nd, 2023

Raoul wants to add to his Exponential Age bets…


  • BG
    Bob G.
    2 June 2023 @ 17:08
    Musk is a visionary engineering manager, but he's also become the modern Howard Hughes. That's going to be particularly damaging for Tesla, since of his various endeavors Tesla seems to be the one he is least interested any more; it's also the one where his customer / fan base is most likely to be turned off by his more recent antics. There's a lot of potential there, and he tends to attract really good people (though he doesn't always retain them, and that's been getting worse). Raoul's fanboying is probably a bit too much, or at least the risk of more mediocre results due to erratic leadership is more substantial than I think he's building in.
    • BS
      Bobby S.
      3 June 2023 @ 17:07
      The musk 'bandwagon' just continues to roll on and with the additional leverage of space ~x and now Twitter strongly suggests it's only going to get louder!
    • TD
      Troy D.
      2 June 2023 @ 22:38
      Bob, I think you're looking too closely. Raoul puts his neck on the line when he commits to trade recommendations, and in this case I don't think he's too worried about the finer minutia of the inner workings of either company. What he's saying in my opinion, is that both Tesla and Apple have a giant sleeping network of hardware infrastructure throughout their vehicles/ computers and phones which are ready to be awakened. From listening to RP for many years, I think he has the ability to cut out the noise and focus on what matters, and in this case its the capacity for these two companies to awaken their already existing network of sleeping computer chips to become AI leaders in a short timeframe, and not about what Musk is thinking about.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      2 June 2023 @ 17:32
      Its just a stock that is going up, not a life philosophy!.
  • WM
    William M.
    2 June 2023 @ 18:11
    To say that Raoul Pal is in the opposite side of predictions from a raft of other well known commentators regarding Apple and Tesla is of course, not an understatement. Somebody is going to be right and the others wrong. I understand Raoul's thesis, having read it carefully, however I remain tied to a large position in Ethereum which remains 60% underwater at this time so I must take a raincheck on other exponential bets at this time. Good luck folks.
  • TD
    Troy D.
    2 June 2023 @ 22:46
    Thanks Raoul, I really appreciated this update. Particularly your thoughts on the narrative around the TGA rebuild, as it's been getting quite a lot of commentary which was messing with my head a little. I know I have a habit of getting caught up in short term noise, so I very much appreciate the updates at these times. Your confidence in the tech and Crypto sector over the past months has been very positive for me, and certainly against consensus which is exactly why I subscribe, and take the time to read. Cheers.
  • SR
    Steve R.
    3 June 2023 @ 00:22
    It might be great for humanity having all this new tech stuff, but as incomes fall and debt levels grow globally, not sure who it going to afford all this stuff or why? On the Apple front, I'm not sure why you think humanity is going to spend its days with a headset glued to their face. All the research I've seen points the other way. A solution looking for a problem that doesn't exist. Remember IMAX/3D cinemas? Yeah, that didn't work out so well either. I can't think for one minute you would give up real life in the Cayman Islands to spend your time with a headset glued to your face, and neither would anyone else. The people who build this stuff spend all their time and wealth accumulating real world life styles. There is a message in that.
  • BS
    Bobby S.
    3 June 2023 @ 17:04
    It's interesting that everyone seems to be fighting the trend including Julian B; Raouls has remained consistent with his thesis and until it is disproved I for one remain on board. The secular trend is pointing in only one direction at this time..
  • SR
    Steve R.
    6 June 2023 @ 00:57
    Well if that's the best Apple can do then I think its safe to say the Metaverse aint happening anytime soon. The fact that Meta couldn't make this work was a massive tell. There is nothing good going for Apple right now.
  • ML
    Michael L.
    6 June 2023 @ 02:07
    Raoul - thanks for the update. Any update on the AAPL / metaverse view given the rather underwhelming debut of their new VR product? Retail price of USD3499 to boot may be difficult for mainstream adoption
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    6 June 2023 @ 16:15
    Nice write up Raoul, while I know your base case is for inflation to go to zero even possibly negative, what if that is wrong? Have you tested what that would mean for liquidity for the remainder of the year? Id assume it would mean the EU and the US probably stay more hawkish on the margin and probably keeps the dollar bid. Would that mean a strong dollar would keep the BOJ and PBOC from doing any meaningful easing? I like your framework and I think its going to be wildly correct Im just curious on what you think the potential risks could be if inflation does in fact stay sticky? Thanks for the write up, what Im thinking is short term stuff I think as we get in to 2024 that becomes a much easier call to make for liquidity to really take hold. Its the medium term risk from here til then that concerns me if inflation doesnt crack to the fed 2% mandate.
  • SB
    Sean B.
    9 June 2023 @ 13:16
    You really nailed this one on the head Raoul! Thank you