Pro Macro: Flash Update – March 24th, 2022

Published on: March 24th, 2022

Despite a hawkish Fed and in the teeth of the trouble emanating both from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the weakness of Chinese equities (until last week), Latin American equities have been toying with trend breakouts. While broad USD weakness was heretofore a necessary condition for me to get comfortable with LatAm risk, the charts are forcing me to reconsider.

Comments

JW

JW2 W.

24 March 2022 @ 20:25

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Muy apreciada Amigo!
- JW
  
  JW2 W.
  
  24 March 2022 @ 20:57
  
  1 0
  
  sorry, 'apreciado' :-)
WM

William M.

24 March 2022 @ 20:38

1 0

I still find it incredible that most seem so sanguine about interest rates going up even another 1% with US debt now at 30 TRILLION dollars and rapidly rising. The deficit is rising at 1 trillion + a year and thats before any further QE, war spending, potential commodity support, etc etc. Clearly I just don't understand a thing about debt levels or risk. There was also lots of talk about YCC a year back, but that seems to have moderated. It seems to me, given all that has occurred since just 2020, that folks should be very very very much more concerned than they are letting on. Perhaps the water in the pot is just not getting hot quickly enough for us frogs to save ourselves by jumping out, but I am looking at the rising steam levels with some concern now........
- HM
  
  Harry M. | Real Vision
  
  25 March 2022 @ 12:14
  
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  And there is another inflationary impetus one the way! We havent really even seen a quarter of the impact of the Russian sanctions on inflation yet.
- WM
  
  William M.
  
  24 March 2022 @ 20:54
  
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  Sorry thanks Julian for the flash. Got in on XME and been in silver since $17, looking at EWZ and EWW now.
SB

Stephen B.

24 March 2022 @ 20:53

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Thanks, Julian!
LM

Lawrence M.

25 March 2022 @ 05:06

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Thanks!
LS

Luca S.

25 March 2022 @ 20:57

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Thanks a lot guys, as the saying goes, there's always a bull market somewhere, and having a nice list of macro trades handpicked by Julian, is truly a fantastic gift. As far as XME goes, it's last major top occurred on April 2011, at 75.59, not far from Julian's 70 target... maybe we can hope for a perfect retest of those highs next month, on the 11th anniversary of the last big top? Hoping for a wonderful trade to get even better than planned?
- LS
  
  Luca S.
  
  25 March 2022 @ 21:20
  
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  Actually, if XME maintains the current angle of ascent, it will hit 75.59 as early as April 11, and as late as May 6; and it will hit all time highs of 94 bucks as early as May 11, and as late as June 7. Regardless of it hitting those targets by those dates, my money is on it.