Pro Macro: In Focus – EU ETs – A New Dawn

Published on: January 23rd, 2023

This month Raoul hosts a guest article by Lawson Steele updating us on the opportunity in EU Carbon allowances in 2023/24.


  • JL
    John L.
    23 January 2023 @ 18:34
    Article says buy the Dec 22 future. I'm guessing you mean Dec 23?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 January 2023 @ 20:12
  • BJ
    Billy J.
    23 January 2023 @ 21:05
    Very informative. What happens when a company surrenders the EUA to gov? Is it destroyed, resold at auction later etc? Trying to wrap my head around the supply/demand dynamics, what is the inflation rate (new issuance) of EUAs and understand risks to the rules of the game for investors.
  • JM
    Jake M.
    24 January 2023 @ 00:17
    Raoul, do see KEUA etf as good alternative?
    • JS
      John S.
      25 January 2023 @ 01:30
      In 2021 I used KRBN to execute the trade in preference to futures. Worked fine. Note it is diversified across other carbon markets with ~60% in EU ETS. Pluses and minuses to that. I am planning to reenter the trade based on Lawson's analysis.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    24 January 2023 @ 01:26
    I can't find the IB symbol, anyone?
    • RA
      Rob A.
      5 February 2023 @ 01:22
    • PQ
      Pascal Q.
      26 January 2023 @ 07:11
    • DD
      Donal D.
      25 January 2023 @ 09:39
      No I cant seem to find it either I looked on the ICE and it said EU ETS but IB does not recognize that ticker Anyone else know what it is?
  • AS
    Andrew S.
    24 January 2023 @ 02:14
    I can't join the Kakubi discord. It says the invite is invalid. Does anyone else have the same issue?
    • AS
      Andrew S.
      24 January 2023 @ 23:16
      Thank you Ross, the new link works fine.
    • RH
      Ross H. | Real Vision
      24 January 2023 @ 12:39
      Andrew: Please use this link instead
    • RH
      Ross H. | Real Vision
      24 January 2023 @ 12:18
      Hey Andrew, we're looking into this and will hopefully have a new link up soon!
  • KS
    Kashyap S.
    24 January 2023 @ 03:20
    Such a dumb idea. If this trade works, factories will simply shut down and move to China. EU will end up scrapping this whole shebang if it ever becomes a real, visible burden to businesses and you'll end up with a piece of nothing. If you're a sucker for artificial constructs, I'd suggest buying real estate in one of the Dubai islands. At least you're guaranteed to get something out of it. China is an expert in taking advantage of gullible Western governments.
    • AS
      Andrew S.
      24 January 2023 @ 23:38
      Even China is doing its own carbon credit trading system. In the next decade of time, the playing field will be pretty equal amongst all the big manufacturing nations. When big companies consider moving, surely they will look at this and realize there's no place to run in the long term. After all, the payoff time needed for moving big factories and everything these factories need will be such that carbon trading systems would likely catch them before they can move again. The place that will benefit the most is likely to be the US because 1) many in congress are deniers of climate change thus they are likely to fight this kind of thing in order to prolong its implementation; 2) US has the lowest cost in energy as long as they can keep Russia energy products out of the market; 3) US demographics is actually favourable relative to EU and China. So if I'm in the EU, I'd look to the US and Canada as the place to run to. To a degree, this is already happing. Just not at a large scale yet.
  • AM
    Aaron M.
    24 January 2023 @ 10:18
    discord link doesn't seem to work
    • RH
      Ross H. | Real Vision
      24 January 2023 @ 12:37
      Aaron: Please use this link instead - thanks!
    • RH
      Ross H. | Real Vision
      24 January 2023 @ 12:16
      Hi Aaron. Looking into this and will keep you updated.
  • RH
    Ross H. | Real Vision
    24 January 2023 @ 12:41
    Hi everyone. While we work on updating the discord link for Kakubi in the report itself, please use the following link to access:
  • JS
    John S.
    25 January 2023 @ 01:30
    Excellent analysis from Lawson
  • JL
    John L.
    26 January 2023 @ 03:34
    Is this an actual trade idea or just an attempt to market Kakubi? Hard to differentiate