Pro Macro: In Focus – Of Rocks & Hard Places

Published on: December 14th, 2022

With only effectively a handful of trading days remaining until we ring out a turbulent 2022, we have one last slew of data and policy decisions this week. CBs are in challenging territory either way. Thereafter, I recommend letting year-end window dressing noise play itself out, before engaging again in January.

Comments

  • JM
    John M.
    14 December 2022 @ 23:32
    3 0
    Thanks for a great year, and not the easiest one!
  • KB
    Keith B.
    15 December 2022 @ 00:10
    6 0
    Julian and team Bravo You have excelled as advisor and guide Joyous Holidays to you Keith Bronstein
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    15 December 2022 @ 19:39
    0 0
    Julian you have been a blessing to us all in 2022. Happy holidays to you and your team. Looking forward to you keeping us ahead of the curve in 2023!
  • LA
    Lysander A.
    15 December 2022 @ 23:04
    0 0
    You have been a most trusted guide in 2022. Merry Christmas!
  • SN
    SAT N.
    16 December 2022 @ 04:10
    1 0
    Well done! Thanks. ITB/DIA trade. "This trade is now a little stale and given that housing markets have been under pressure, I would have expected more traction" It would be helpful if you can expand on this. Not much appears to have changed since the thesis behind this trade was laid out. Mortgage rates have come down a bit, but all other housing data continues to worsen. Is it just a matter of time for this trade to work out? Or is it time to move on, and if so, why?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 December 2022 @ 14:22
      1 0
      I would say that we consider the trade stopped out for flat. So intellectually we like do still like the trade, but as far as we were concerned it just didn't work and we have closed it.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 December 2022 @ 13:13
      1 0
      Thats precisely the thing. We dont know. It should be working given the data flow which has been exactly what we expected, but for some reason it isn't. Perhaps there is something we have missed? Perhaps there are other factors driving the stock price. We remain bearish the housing market, but the price action is not confirming the trade, which means we are now looking at it as questionable. The facts have not changed (as we understand them) but the trade is not performing as we would have expected. Treat with caution.
  • LH
    Luis H.
    18 December 2022 @ 07:26
    0 0
    Title of second graph is page 7, shouldn’t be EEM/Nasdaq ?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      22 December 2022 @ 12:59
      0 0
      Yes, and logged.
  • NJ
    NB J.
    27 December 2022 @ 19:41
    0 0
    Is it possible to get these reports summarized in a video? Tks.
    • JS
      Jim S.
      30 December 2022 @ 01:04
      0 0
      Set up your phone to read the text ( I swipe down with 2 finger on my iphone and it'll read the text to me) - not perfect but it works
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      28 December 2022 @ 22:44
      0 0
      Interesting idea.
  • JL
    John L.
    29 December 2022 @ 04:56
    1 0
    Stop loss for new tlt tranche ? Currently down c.5% from 105 entry