Pro Macro: In Focus – Peak Fear

Published on: June 21st, 2022

Raoul thinks we have hit peak fear for now. Some things are starting to become clear and opportunities for long-term investment are now setting up, but it is not yet clear we are out of the woods…


  • JM
    Jaron M.
    21 June 2022 @ 14:27
    Hello, on page 2 Raoul writes, " I was stopped out of my bond futures trades." I do not recall stop levels being shared for Raoul's trades (only Julian's), nor do they appear on the latest, June 1 in focus trade recommendations sheet. Can anyone confirm whether stops were indeed shared, and if so, point me to it? Thank you
    • MB
      Michael B.
      21 June 2022 @ 15:23
      PRO MACRO: FLASH UPDATE – MAY 27, 2022
  • WM
    William M.
    21 June 2022 @ 15:18
    As usual you make a good case for your thesis Raoul. I only have 15% into your crypto bet and got in too late after "pondering for months", so that 15% is now 5%!!! Nonetheless I won't be flinching..... I note that the Chart of Truth is now broken, you didn't specifically mention it, but I am reading that although there is is now a higher high than last cycle, you fully expect it to reassert or flatten itself close to current rates. Finally, I see you have canned your interest in gold and I understand why. What you say is true. I also note however that gold has held up amazingly well in the current environment. My long term Swiss advisors have been pretty right on gold over the long term and are of the view (predicted many many years ago) that the worlds debt and increasing instability, as clearly witnessed in several geopolitical areas today, is reaching a breaking point that the authorities will not be able to reverse. They have argued for a long while now that the Euro and ECB interest rate policy is entering the terminal phase and that that will drive wealth from the EU into the USA and Gold. Looking at the EU energy situation today, as we gear up for winter, appears critical. You have made it clear what drives your thesis, demographics technology etc, but my concern remains that geopolitics could trump all of that and catch most by surprise. Thanks for your honest updates. I agree with your thesis except for my worry above.
  • JA
    John A.
    21 June 2022 @ 15:18
    The one problem I have right now is not with your view, it's with the missing recent Cathie interview. It was pulled shortly after being released and I still have not seen a reason why. I am still waiting to hear one. I think she is wrong in the short term, and I wanted to hear her view as I am very opposed in this current market, but we have been denied the interview. We never got to see the Do Kwon interview and I can understand why as it seems like he saved himself when things got bad and will probably be in legal hot water, and at the very least a prime scapegoat to sacrifice when the politicians look for heads over this. Alex Mashinsky has been given airtime in the past, and while the jury is still out on him, it looks like at a minimum he grossly underrepresented the liquidity risk of his business. But I see no reason why Cathie interview had to be held back without a reason. Maybe there is a NDA on the reason why, so I am content to wait and see for now. But I am paying attention to how RV navigates this to judge the credibility overall of the service when my renewal comes up. If this is still your core thesis, then at a minimum we should know why we can't hear her own words if we continue to be told this narrative in our research.123456
    • WM
      William M.
      23 June 2022 @ 16:09
      Interesting comment. I recall the mention of the Cathy Wood video by Raoul but just assumed it was still on its way. I think its important for RVT to comment on the issue but it may be a question for a Raoul's next deep dive session
  • NP
    Nick P.
    21 June 2022 @ 15:51
    thanks for the update! awesome stuff! :) re: kr1, i believe they have an OTC option for people that do not trade on AQSE. have you heard any discussion on coming current for otc markets?
  • RW
    Rick W.
    21 June 2022 @ 16:58
    "Cuz the haters gonna hate, hate, hate. But I'm just gonna shake, shake, shake it off" ~ Taylor Swift It's just dogs barking Raoul, ignore them. Keep up the great work.
  • DF
    David F.
    21 June 2022 @ 17:30
    I have been with you since the beginning and knew absolutely nothing about finance at the time, except I wanted to learn. Slowly my understanding has improved, but at 75 I still have so much to learn. Raoul, that has to be your best ever report. Just brilliant. PS - you would tell me to retire if we met, but I have no intention of doing so. I'm hanging ten on the board and the wave is enormous. Cheers
  • MD
    Michael D.
    21 June 2022 @ 18:12
    Raoul, great update. How do you feel about the risk of USDT and the contagion potential if it were to crack?
  • AS
    Andrew S.
    21 June 2022 @ 18:18
    On SOL, I wonder if the market sees the Sam (of FTX) put in place. Can you get Delphi experts to comment on this?
  • GG
    Georg G.
    21 June 2022 @ 18:58
    Thank you very much for the update, Raoul. There is one asset, which you did not mention here, but which you have been very positive about in the past, and that is European Carbon Credits. I would be very interested in hearing your thoughts about these now. With Germany and other European countries ramping up the use of coal again, to counter the cuts in Russian natural gas, do you think there is a chance that the EU could loosen some of the restrictions on carbon emissions, which could cause prices of European carbon credits to collapse?
    • JS
      John S.
      21 June 2022 @ 23:03
      Raoul closed this position a few weeks ago as it appears the Eurocrats may tinker with the supply of carbon credits. I closed my position in KRBN for the same reason. Lawson Steele regularly comments on developments on Twitter. It may be a position to reenter when we have more clarity
  • Dd
    David d.
    21 June 2022 @ 19:09
    Raoul, An explanation of your highly confident targets for ETH of 10 to 15K, and possibly even 40K... would be helpful given ETH has crashed over 80% and is sitting at $1,040 today. An explanation of why you didn’t foresee/appreciate the Fed increasing interest rates and the impact on ETH would be helpful? Your competitors and market commentators are coming after you, but they are not saying you are irresponsible for buying Tech, as you state in today’s report. What they are saying is that you were telling your subscribers that you were irresponsibly long crypto and that they (your subscribers) were “not long enough”. Which you did say repeatedly in RV reports. Re-reading your RV reports and flash updates over the past 18 months, where you regularly stated you had never in your entire career seen a set-up better then crypto offered, and looking at where we are now, merits an explanation. Otherwise, thank you for a well written report.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 June 2022 @ 08:06
      When I added at the highs (not the first time and not the last!) I bought ETH calls to mitigate risk. That worked really well as the trade failed. My time horizon is the single most important thing to understand and it is 5 years plus and I fully expect numerous large drawdowns as we have seen in the past. So, with prices low, the expected returns are now even higher.
  • AH
    Anthony H.
    21 June 2022 @ 20:26
    One of your best reports. Please keep the level of detail, and I appreciate you separating the Long term views and Trade recommendations. Keep doing you Raoul. Looking back $40K ETH can be part of the bull cycle mania enthusiasm, but I can tell that in the next 5 years you can see digital assets reaching that, perhaps not in the last cycle but in the next.
  • NS
    Nathan S.
    21 June 2022 @ 21:42
    Great report, thank you. I can feel the care and passion you put into these. It surprises me though how many well respected people are still bullish on Solana considering it recently had its sixth network outage. Is it because its network adoption is "unstoppable" now? I'd like to hear Delphi's updated view / reasonings for this considering there are a handful of other better performing layer 1's to choose from. Ps regarding you mentioning how you haven't felt kick back like this before in your career... In my opinion it is likely because we are living in a more and more polarised world by the day, so I suspect not only will you feel the most hate but also the most love over time.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 June 2022 @ 08:07
      I totally understand the flaws in SOL but it has the largest network adoption outside of ETH. It wont be my largest position but I think it is worthy of a position, even knowing that there are risks.
  • MB
    Markus B.
    23 June 2022 @ 09:26
    Raoul, thank you for your report, in time and well written. I feel utterly disgusted by the personal "personal social media" attacks directed at you. Personally I do not agree with all of your views but that is ok. It is a competition of ideas out there and that helps everybody to come to an own and idependent conclusion. Your contribution to that thought process is highly valuable. We are all grown ups, aren't we? It takes some backbone and character to stand there and have a view. So thank you for all contributions. Further, you have skin in the game with your trades - so what's the bloody point of having a go at you? Raoul, I noted that you closed the GDX trade. This is ok. But don't confuse physical gold with equities (GDX). Equities are risk assets and history has shown time and time again that gold equities are not immune in market conditions that are dominated by a general risk-off sentiment. I am actually surprised how well gold was holding up year to date: we had horrible equity markets and ghastly fixed income markets at the same time. One of the attributes of gold is that it is the perfect source of liquidity in difficult market conditions. If you don't want to sell your beloved blue chip stocks or the liquidity in fixed income is dire sell your gold. It's strenght is its "temporary" weakness. The GDX (as well as gold) always recover strongly after peak fear has passed. Last but not least: a heads-up on the Cathie Wood interview would be appreciated. Hang in there, keep on doing the good work.
    • WM
      William M.
      23 June 2022 @ 16:19
      Agree Markus. I suspect Raoul is simply tired of gold not doing what so many said it should be doing. I am still focussed on the cup and handle formation for gold and the pending international Fx crisis which simply has to be brewing. The Euro seems to have a major problem and is being held together with chewing gum and string and misplaced confidence in Madam Lagarde. Sterling is crumbling again and the Yen well....... Some are saying a bounce in these latter currencies is around the corner (seems reasonable) but I remain drawn to the flight of assets from many places back into the dollar in the current geopolitical environment. We could wake up next week to another escalation in Europe centered around Kaliningrad, or a Chinese devaluation or whatever; so I remain nervous to say the least about "paper assets". Agree with the Cathy Wood comment, I am not particularly fond of messiahs, but would have been interested in how she addresses her choices.
  • TK
    Tom K.
    25 June 2022 @ 02:37
    Raoul the attacks on you are childish. I don't agree with some of your views but respect your opinions and find tremendous value in your reports. Especially this one. You make me think critically about my own allocations. Appreciate how you break down your thinking in this report, fantastic. Keep going. Ignore the noise and know that you add a lot of value to some of us out here.