Pro Macro: In Focus – So Far, So Good

Published on: July 21st, 2022

Although the next two months are key, thus far Raoul’s thesis appears to be playing out in the markets. Maybe crypto is giving us an early signal?


  • AH
    Anthony H.
    21 July 2022 @ 23:07
    Thanks Raoul for your analysis as always. Do you think the typical 4 year cycle nature of crypto is broken now? As Pentoshi said, "To play devils advocate, the question isn’t who’s left to sell. It’s who’s going to buy? Grayscale added 600k+ $BTC during mass mania, QE + Covid stimmies while everyone was at home Saylor bought 130k Btc, Tesla 1.5B, and then we saw 3AC who was truly max bidding. Retail lost B’s w/ Celsius and Voyager" Would love to know your thoughts. Cheers!
  • PP
    Percy P.
    22 July 2022 @ 02:07
    To add what I know here, I remembered the 30% total supply staked, is on the high side for Vitalik's estimate/desire. At 30% circulating supply staked, it's 2.2% APR, again: think 2023 Treasuries yield. There's a FOMC meeting on September 20-21, right after ETH merge, with no August meeting. Some expect FED pivot in September, though I am less sure about September pivot, and I am discounting FED's importance and influence by September. I am bold enough to think about $75 oil August.
  • ML
    Michael L.
    22 July 2022 @ 03:03
    Thanks as ever Raoul, in your macro framework, do you have any opinion on the order of things turning? Is it bond yields fall first and then after crypto rises or do you see them happening at the same time as one signals the other.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    22 July 2022 @ 05:25
    Hi Raoul, how are you measuring to see if/when BTC ETH decouples from equities?
  • SM
    Sean M.
    23 July 2022 @ 13:04
    I see crypto to M2, can you also add in the chart of crypto to Fed balance sheet. Thanks!
  • BH
    Brad H.
    25 July 2022 @ 14:18
    Raoul, is there some place you have listed what's in your exponential basket? Thanks
    • BH
      Brad H.
      25 July 2022 @ 23:20
      I see the in focus archives only go back to May, can you email that report to me? Thanks
    • JR
      Jorge R.
      25 July 2022 @ 16:37
      Hi Brad, they are listed on an In Focus back in April.
  • JJ
    Jay J.
    29 July 2022 @ 09:55
    This was good the only probelm is i use some of the same indoctors and share a very simialr veiw