Pro Macro: In Focus – The Setup Is Still Underway

Published on: March 21st, 2022

Raoul revisits the big setup in bonds and when he might add to the trade to take a much bigger bet. He also gives us context on the 1973 oil crisis and how similar it is to today…


  • MS
    Mark S.
    21 March 2022 @ 17:25
    Raoul Thanks, is there a high point on the 10 yr and 30 yr yield where you’d say yields aren’t coming down any time soon and concede that it will take much longer than you previously thought for yields to come down? After Powel’s comments today, I am looking at a 10 year yield of 2.3%, I see you mentioned 2.35% in your Update.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 March 2022 @ 11:53
      It could take longer, hence the note saying I'd like to see a further set up in the trade. Dollar Yen has yet to make its big break, which lies further up at 130
    • MS
      Mark S.
      22 March 2022 @ 01:23
      Hi Raoul forgot to add this but you always said the Yen would weaken. I am surprised you have not brought it up in any of your comments.
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    21 March 2022 @ 19:19
    Could you please summarise what are the exponential age stocks.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 March 2022 @ 11:51
      Ultra high growth Network Effect stocks - ARKK holdings, SMT in London, Meta, Google, Apple, Tesla, AI, biotech, robotics, crypto, space, etc
    • HS
      Hamish S.
      21 March 2022 @ 20:41
  • DA
    David A.
    21 March 2022 @ 21:43
    Raoul- how do you think about the impact of QE/ QT (Central bank activity) now versus the 70's example? Is there a chance that the chart of truth is "polluted" by this activity and that IF they reverse to QT the chart of truth may look very different (shape and level) ?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 March 2022 @ 11:50
      Yields tend to fall on QT or ending QE so not so sure
  • CM
    Charl M.
    22 March 2022 @ 01:03
    just a suggestion for Raoul's charts (I think someone suggested this previously) - please make the font size of the axes larger, and the chart lines perhaps a bit thicker. The x-axis and y-xis font sizes are way too small and one has to zoom the page view to 150-200% to see it clearly. Thanks!
  • AB
    Avik B.
    22 March 2022 @ 02:51
    looks like the set up is close to here after last night!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 March 2022 @ 11:53
      Price is close but DeMark etc needs more time
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    22 March 2022 @ 13:12
    (the chart at the bottom of page 4 is 1973 PMI rather than 1973 equities)
  • AV
    Andonis V.
    22 March 2022 @ 18:42
    You mention that when yields top, you'd look into buying some exponential age trades. Can you help me understand logic of why these will outperform in a recessionary environment? Is it under the assumption the fed will start to expand BS again?