Pro Macro: Looking Ahead to 2023

Published on: December 29th, 2022

Q1 outlook is dire. Expect falling growth to validate low and (still) falling ISM readings. CB tightening in the teeth of the slowdown and QT on top will bring down inflation and push up unemployment, just as it has already crushed monetary aggregate growth. But it is always darkest before dawn and the deterioration will provide opportunity: initially in Fixed Income, then increasingly in Equities.


  • PM
    Philip M.
    29 December 2022 @ 22:30
    So many indicators forecasting a lower PMI that it seems silly to ask, but I would be grateful for further clarity on the GMI Rates Model, and the GMI Financial Conditions Index. Many thanks!
    • PM
      Philip M.
      21 January 2023 @ 10:17
      Hi, could someone help here please? Thanks again!
  • JM
    John M.
    30 December 2022 @ 00:53
    Nothing but respect for Raoul and Team. Great insights and perspective on the New Year! However, it was odd the report was published on 29 December with Bloomberg charts and corresponding narratives from 02 December. So much has happened since then!
    • JF
      Jim F.
      30 December 2022 @ 03:17
      I agreed. Feels like we got ripped off on this one. He must has posted a report he gave to other clients at GMI a month ago :(
  • JF
    Jim F.
    30 December 2022 @ 03:17
    I'm very disappointed in this and actually feel ripped off. The analysis and data used are almost a full month outdated. Many of the charts used end on 12/02/2022 (see page 28) when this was published on 12/29/22. This analysis is missing a whole month of market action. Seems like instead of writing something fresh Raoul just re-using something posted for GMI a month ago? Seems like when Raoul's partner left GMI the Macro Pro service from Raoul declined (Not Julian). Raoul didn't write a piece for two months (gave a video instead) and this time the piece is a month old. I hate to say it, but maybe Keith M. has a point...
  • JS
    Justin S.
    30 December 2022 @ 20:47
    Thanks, a good read confirming some important perspective. I accept some GMI content will be delayed for non-subscribers and timing isn't the idea here anyways. So I don't feel ripped off at all! Keep up the good work all at RV - Happy '23
  • KB
    Kirk B.
    30 December 2022 @ 21:34
    This Deep Dive report provides a clear summation of Raoul's Macro framework which he has been laying out over the past months. I suppose that, if I were a short-term trader, I might be concerned that the data presented is not the freshest. However, I have a longer-term investment orientation. I subscribe to RV Pro to understand the evolving macro economic factors, so I can better position my investments in response to the emerging longer-term trends and to identify the most opportune trading entry points to take advantage of these trends. I am 77 years old, and, based on my experience, I totally agree with Raoul that "long term time horizons, leveraging secular trends, produce better total returns than any other strategy..." Everything that Raoul states in this Deep Dive I have heard from him before, but, in this report, he presents the broad strokes of his current Macro framework, Looking Ahead to 2023, as well placing this framework into the context of his investment philosophy. He also reveals in this report his increasingly conviction regarding this framework.
  • TE
    Tom E.
    13 January 2023 @ 13:10
    Thanks Raoul. Question on your oil price outlook. How are you factoring in the fact that GCC producers need to keep the price at $70-80ish and would likely cut production into a weak demand picture / increasing non-OPEC supply? Or is your volume assumption that OPEC will target market share and squeeze marginal producers through price weakness despite what this does to home budget deficits?