Pro Macro: Private Equity & Inventory Cycle

Published on: July 28th, 2022

Last week, two important new pieces of data pointed to a rapid deterioration in the growth outlook. First on Thursday we got the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook which fell to -12.3 from a sell side survey expectation of about flat. Worse, the S&P Global US Composite Provisional PMI for July fell below the 50 line. At 47.5 vs the expected 52.4, it was a big miss.


  • JM
    Jake M.
    28 July 2022 @ 19:27
    Hi Julian, you seem to suggest that S&P 500 can reach 31% off ATH because you predict JOLT openings to reach 8500 level. Why do you forecast JOLT openings reaching this low macroeconomically speaking?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      1 August 2022 @ 13:57
      JB has proprietary models which point in that direction for JOLTs. But I think the S&P500 call is not really driven by the JOLTs model. Its more driven by technical analysis and where one might normally expect retracement moves to peter out. Fibonacci lines are a pretty standard technical approach for guessing where that retracement might cap out.