Pro Macro: Roosting Chickens

Published on: November 28th, 2022

It is not called the “energy complex” for nothing. Multitudinous products; regional disparity; fragmented logistics and infrastructure. With a heavy focus on Europe’s predicament, the chickens have all come home to roost this year. Long-term solutions are available, but the hiatus is now and will be with us for at least twenty-four months. Below, a framework for future reference and some macro-observations in the fog of war.


  • JH
    Joseph H.
    28 November 2022 @ 20:40
    Excellent as always. Thank you Julian.
  • LA
    Lysander A.
    29 November 2022 @ 04:06
    Enjoyed the analysis but a bit disappointed with the vague volatility conclusion.
  • JP
    Jeff P.
    29 November 2022 @ 06:01
    wow, 60% CF for EdF's NPP...
  • JG
    Johan G.
    29 November 2022 @ 10:59
    Thanks Julian, interesting analysis. Even though governments try to soften the blow for the public, there are very strong incentives to reduce energy consumption. Energy saving could materially soften demand. Perhaps your analysis underestimate that effect?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      29 November 2022 @ 11:28
      I think of the short term energy savings possible by industrial users 85% has probably already been realized. For households, I same a figure suggesting a 15% decline in usage was being factored in. One thing which just came out is that Germany has just signed an agreement with Qatar. Its interesting that its a 15yr contract for 2mt. Price will reflect the embedded infrastructure cost but it is net zero compliant. Another 28mt to go!