Run Baby, Run

Published on: May 11th, 2020

The far-reaching effect of COVID-19 on the global economy is being reflected in the data. We anticipate the economic impact to be violent and reach epic proportions. With many western countries in lockdown, Remi Tetot reports on the newly-released economic data that has been particularly impacted by the COVID-19 breakout during the week.

Comments

  • SH
    Sahil H.
    12 May 2020 @ 02:23
    Australian numbers are interesting but hardly surprising. I briefly went to the shopping center on the weekend and found that no social distancing rules are being obeyed. No one wears masks. Most stores have hand santiser and are whipping down counters but self serve checkouts aren't being cleaned after every use. People were already going to beaches etc. before we even finished our lock down and our lock downs weren't stringent relative to other countries. We could have had it a bit easier because its been extremely warm, this time of the year and we're only starting to get our flu season as its only been getting cold over the last week or so (I'm in NSW by the way). Prior to plan for re-opening you could only get tested if you were presenting with symptoms & had been overseas or been in contact with people from overseas. There was some community to community tracking going on but testing was mostly focused on identifying overseas cases. During the Easter weekend when we started "flattening the curve" I saw some stats that we were doing less testing over that period. Right now from what I'm observing most testing facilities are open to anyone but its all voluntary. I haven't seen or heard of any mandatory testing going on which can seriously skew results in my opinion. The Australian governments stimulus package was massive compared to most countries (~10% of GDP from memory), whereas most countries were around 5%? (with the exception of the US). Most people that lost jobs and that are on the "job keeper payment scheme" are not classed as unemployed even if they are underemployed/not working at all and many are getting paid more money now than what they were getting when they were working full-time (AU$1500 per fortnight). As a result most Australians are extremely exuberant about what is going on and believe everything is going back to normal. This is based on the conversations I'm hearing on the radio, mainstream media, and people around me. The government is pushing schools to open and everyone to get back to work again. in my opinion the government is hoping we don't get another wave or this doesn't worsen too much because I don't think they can sustain the stimulus package for more than 3 months (6 months at the most with probably a lot of economic damage). Our big 4 banks are hit hard already from all the mortgage reliefs and loans they've given to businesses. The National Australia bank had to raise more capital because they are struggling (reporting a 51% slump in half year profits) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-27/nab-goes-to-share-market-for-more-than-3-billion/12188112). Though much of those losses are money that's put aside for future losses from bad debts.
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      12 May 2020 @ 02:32
      More importantly, our politicians have been poking China pretty hard to determine the root cause of the virus and there is threats of tariffs being placed on Australian exports into China from the Chinese. From my understanding, one of the main reasons we didn't go into a technical recession during the 2008 GFC was that our dollar weakened just as China stepped up their demand for our natural resources. If our politicians decide to pick a fight with China and back the US in this, then China may not be there to save us on the back end of the recession. Keep in mind this is Australia's first recession in almost 30 years so there's going to be a lot of psychological factors/biases that will play into how Australia deals with this crises. I foresee a lot of pain coming within the next 6 months and I don't think most Australians will see it coming :(
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      12 May 2020 @ 10:00
      Totally agree with this assessment. China just suspended imports from four Australian abattoirs... What's next?
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      13 May 2020 @ 02:49
      yeah its really concerning what is going to happen. I've been seeing a lot of Australian's comment on China pushing for those tariffs saying that we should walk away from China completely and we don't need them. And look I completely agree that we shouldn't let other countries push us over but I also don't think most Australian's understand the level of economic pain we will have to go through if we completely severe ties with China. To be honest I am also struggling to understand how badly this will affect Australia.
    • wc
      william c.
      13 May 2020 @ 04:50
      Sahil H, beef and barley exports are a very small percentage of overall export volume in nominal Aussie dollar terms. China has done this in the past too, it's nothing out of the ordinary. China needs Australia exports. I think the worst is behind us and a flair up in geopolitics is not enough to cause substantial "pain" as you stated. The risk of severing ties with China is extremely low, don't get caught up in sensationalist headline grabbing news.
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      14 May 2020 @ 05:47
      yeah you're right Beef and Barley are a small portion of our exports but 57% of our exports are resources, and 31% of our total exports go to China. If this does escalate its pretty clear that these tariffs will leak over into other industries. I think we need China more than they need us:(https://www.rba.gov.au/snapshots/economy-composition-snapshot/). You're right this could turn into nothing. However, last time we had these trade tariff issues with China it was in 2014 right? The world and our economy is in a completely different place than what it was back then. There has been underlying geopolitical tension building over the last 5-10 year with China rising as an economic super power to compete with the US. The Corona virus has created even more of a reason to divide the world between the US and China.
  • FB
    Frank B.
    12 May 2020 @ 20:58
    Just a small suggestion to increase the font size on the chart axis to a readable size.
  • SM
    Shantanu M.
    11 May 2020 @ 18:19
    Is Australia the odd one out because of the positive shock from Chinese economy restarting?
    • JJ
      Jules J.
      11 May 2020 @ 21:15
      Because Australia has had so few cases of Covid19, I don't believe Australians are taking it seriously. The shopping centres we're full on the weekend and social distancing rules not being followed at all... it seemed retail was business as usual. The potential for a second Covid19 wave, at this rate and social behaviour, it's possible.
    • DP
      Divyesh P.
      12 May 2020 @ 02:10
      Think retail is helped by hoarding and exports helped by weak AUD
    • AB
      Allex B.
      12 May 2020 @ 08:11
      I would expect a record decline in retail sales in Australia next month as everybody hoarded in March / early April. Supermarket shelves are back to normal now. A month ago you couldn't buy toilet paper, paper towels, pastas, chicken, beef etc. Exports cant really be explained, Australia is the lucky country and may somehow yet again avoid a technical recession..
  • RS
    Ravi S.
    12 May 2020 @ 06:28
    I’m also from Australia Retail explosion is likely grocery hoarding which will settle now Exports increase is gold and iron ore A major department store Myer chose to close trade
  • wc
    william c.
    12 May 2020 @ 01:36
    Could it be in fact that Australia is not the odd one out but a predictor for what happens when economies re-open? People seem still too bearish on consumer behavior when economies re-opening. There are a number of anecdotal examples starting to appear which suggest the consumer is ready and waiting to go out and spend once restrictions are lifted. The positive QoQ and YoY changes in data leaving this recession and lock down look likely to beat on the upside and that will be more fuel for the fire for equity prices.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    12 May 2020 @ 00:26
    One discordant chart is China exports. But then again, maybe a case of CCP statistics rather than reality? Or is there evidence they have actually increased in the import numbers in other countries?
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    11 May 2020 @ 21:39
    And who is receiving the exports from China? This would be interesting to know, can China issue credit now to countries willing to take exports from them until this blows over, possibly putting China in a relatively better position as a leader in global trade and a creditor to many parts of the world once this is all over?
  • PC
    Paul C.
    11 May 2020 @ 21:21
    Heroic

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.