Same Story, Different Month

Published on: February 21st, 2019

Raoul taps his fingers impatiently as the markets try to figure out what’s really going on. He notes that gold has made one choice, bonds another and equities another!


  • JH
    Jonathon H.
    21 February 2019 @ 23:27
    Hi Raoul, is it not most likely that this is tipped off with a rise in the dollar? This will drop inflation and S&P earnings, encouraging rate cuts and sending bonds higher. Equities will do their thing until they realise the game is up, presumably when dollar increase comes through as reduced earnings. Conversely a drop in the dollar could delay the cycle for 6-12 months as rate cuts are on hold, and possibly even another rise. However this is much less likely given developments in Europe, China and Japan and presumably is the core of your view. Presumably Dec 21 ED futures will track Dec 20 ED higher in a cutting environment , do you think there is much to be lost by essentially buying an extra 12 months for very little cost at this time?
  • TK
    Torbjorn K.
    22 February 2019 @ 15:37
    Still negative on the oilprice?
  • RM
    R M.
    22 February 2019 @ 18:20
    Raoul: If you look at a chart of the $ since the start of 2014, it has, roughly, been between 100 at the top, 90 on the bottom, with a median price right about what it is currently. Thats a lot of years of relatively range bound prices. So, until the $ gets firmly over 100, or drops firmly under 90, does it really matter a great deal? Is it possible that as the Euro falls apart (assuming it will) it just give US leadership the opportunity to stay just a bit firmer than the Euro, but still loose as they possibly can? Asking seriously, isn't all fiat just a race to the bottom? Can't the US continue to manage the $ roughly sideways as all fiat burns?
  • JK
    James K.
    22 February 2019 @ 18:37
    Raoul always quite interesting....regardless of being a “quiet” moment in the markets. FYI Re RSI Gold/Miners, etc .... might this be where a "Sign of Strength" is needed to confirm the uptrend. This is the region where indictors should remain overbought to push higher and confirm the uptrend. Cycles and price are in agreement for major wave 3 to start.