Slower Now, Faster Later

Published on: June 21st, 2021

Raoul has been calling for a slowdown in inflation and growth for a while. The market is beginning to signal that this is underway, and it is time to pay attention.


  • JA
    Joseph A.
    21 June 2021 @ 21:43
    I am struggling to see hawkishness overall in JP's press conference last week. The majority of his rhetoric was still very much his status quo. I think the risk off event last week is more related to monthly options expiry last Friday than any hint of rate rises 2+ YEARS from now (note how things recovered gradually and steadily today) although tomorrow he gives testimony and I think he will reaffirm his original narrative still prevails and markets will resort to business as usual after maybe some brief risk off into his testimony. However if not and he does sound hawkish then I agree rest of the week dicey into quarterly options expiry to month end and dollar strength more probable again. (However on a fundamentals basis USD is biased NEGATIVE/WEAKER this month not stronger) so unless bond yields do something unexpected I think chances are dollar rallies get faded this week intraday. Let's see what transpires....
  • BM
    Brent M.
    21 June 2021 @ 23:01
    Raoul, good piece. Thank you. Question though... Why did you say you are 100% Crypto, with a small position in GDX and Bonds. What happened to KRBN/EUA Futures? You had suggested taking a somewhat significant position in those and that the timeline was towards the end of 2021. Did I miss a sell recommendation on those? Or is that trade still on? Also, if I may ask a little deeper, how will all of the most recent developments affect this KRBN trade position?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 June 2021 @ 12:34
      Sorry, Yes have that trade on too and nothing has changed in tht trade.
  • JM
    Jake M.
    22 June 2021 @ 08:47
    Raoul. "But the reality is that we are going to have to sit on our hands in crypto for a while and it won’t be a large generator of returns for a bit." How long is "a while"? few months?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 June 2021 @ 12:34
      Probably a week or so until it bottoms and bases and then a month or two before it gains upside traction again.
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    22 June 2021 @ 10:36
    Rethinking my earlier comment. Maybe the reaction to the Fed last week (and later today) isn't so much about any perceived change from dovish to hawkish but rather about the implications for debt repayments! Everyone who has debt based on ongoing zero interest rates who perceived the comments last week as more hawkish are having to take their heads out of the sand and face the possibility that rates might rise in 2023 and are forced to consider what effect this will have when the time comes notwithstanding that Raoul thinks any tightening probably won't last if it happens at all. After all between now and 2023 gives a lot of time for a U turn on tightening / more QE. So my question is is this really about fears relating to DEBT specifically?
  • VD
    22 June 2021 @ 16:06
    Hi Raoul, Please take a look at this ETH chart of ETH 2017 Halving vs ETH 2021 Halving. My concern is that in 2017 sold of 90% from the peak. I am looking for yours and everyone else's thoughts..
  • CB
    Charles B.
    22 June 2021 @ 16:48
    Raoul, Do you still have the KR1 PLC (KROEF) trade still on? I didn't see it in the portfolio summary at the start of this month.
  • LD
    Lance D.
    22 June 2021 @ 18:31
    Hi so would the GE and AT&T be at risk or has that gone away now ? cheers
  • DM
    Dez M.
    22 June 2021 @ 20:40
    Raoul, Could be a dump question but the reverse psychology could be interesting. If China isn't interested in a bitcoin price war any longer and becomes more interested in ESG. What's the incentive for the US gov to continue to support Bitcoin if they have lost their biggest bitcoin rival/threat? Wouldn't that in turn make bitcoin itself more of a threat to the US Dollars if they support BTC, the way that gold has always been one throughout history? And so wouldn't the US gov be more incentivized to manipulate bitcoin prices via the futures market the same way they have done for gold to put downside pressure, which would be the least that could do to stymie bitcoin growth? It does seem to me a reflexive loop that we were once in that is just starting to break?
  • TC
    Tash C.
    22 June 2021 @ 22:31
    Raoul, The China credit impulse (leading 12 months) data: is this open data one can download somewhere? How is the projection made?