Still Slowing…

Published on: August 23rd, 2021

Raoul’s theme of a global economic slowdown seems to be playing out and he envisages it to go further than most people expect…


  • HC
    Ho C.
    23 August 2021 @ 18:02
    Hi Raoul, when institutions realize that crypto is where they need to be in this low growth, money printing environment, do you think they will prefer to buy up crypto stocks (insitutional crypto services companies like GLXY, KR1, VYGR, exchanges like COIN, miners like MARA, RIOT, ARB) as an all rounded diversified, easy access play on the infrastructure of the space rather than speculating on individual coins? And since there might be regulatory barriers to buying/ holding coins?
  • WM
    William M.
    23 August 2021 @ 18:20
    A few of those charts just look terrible. Yet Nasdaq S&P at new highs and Dow one last lunge from a new high. Raoul is right, the deaths from the Delta variant are very low yet media seems to be gearing up for another click bait outburst demanding lockdowns which I think could prompt a hugh increase in social disturbance if they become more widespread. Add to this the farce playing out in Afghanistan and the relatively suppressed illegal immigration crisis at the US southern border together with the rapidly looming next migrant crisis at the Middle east / Europe border. To say nothing of the "social issue wars" and anti CO2 mania now pervading Western societies. I have been around for a pretty long while now and following geopolitics since I was about 20. I remain absolutely amazed that most people still seem "relatively sanguine" about it all. Feels to me that we are building to a "real" crisis with most folks still asleep at the wheel. The Fourth Turning appears undeniable at this point.
  • JM
    Jake M.
    23 August 2021 @ 19:23
    Hi Raoul, do you think it makes sense to hold up some cash for dip-buying as you foresee some turbulence in the stock/crypto market due to economic slowdown in September/October?
  • AW
    Agus W.
    24 August 2021 @ 01:24
    Morning Raoul, so how would you suggest to be tactical in terms of the expected financial tightening during the taper flip flop, and usd rally with regards to crypto? Would you just hold through a possible pullback in crypto prices to add on?
  • AP
    Adam P.
    24 August 2021 @ 02:46
    “Central Bank Balance Sheets are barely growing in rate of change terms...” Does that say 20% YoY?
    • PP
      Percy P.
      24 August 2021 @ 03:36
      He's talking about the rate of change on a YoY chart. You can look back the YoY in Aug 2016, late 2014, and Aug 2008-Aug 2009 all at 20%. At 20% YoY it's only comparable to the normal level of better days. In other words, assume 20% YoY to be the floor of minimum QE requirement going forward.
    • AP
      Adam P.
      24 August 2021 @ 03:16
      Decelerating? Sure, the chart definitely illustrates that. But “barely growing” at 20%?
    • CD
      Chris D.
      24 August 2021 @ 03:07
      I could be wrong but what I think Raoul is saying has to do with the fact that the metric of balance sheet growth is a rate of change metric as a basic unit (IE: the derivative of balance sheet size or growth). The rate at which the growth is accelerating or slowing (so the derivative of growth = acceleration) is essentially flat - no longer accelerating growth rate.
  • PP
    Percy P.
    24 August 2021 @ 03:27
    The labels on the time axis of Caixin China PMI chart seems shifted, which seems to be a feature within the charting software. Does anyone know how to shift chart by certain time to examine the leading/lagging effect, on Tradingview?
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    24 August 2021 @ 10:39
    I think Raoul and Julian missed an opportunity to inject some humor here - you can't have Julian issue a report called 'Gangbusters', take the absolute opposite of this position and than headline your report with the numbingly boring title 'Still Slowing...' At a should have call this report 'Ghostbusters' - because, I mean, what's there left to do for us mere mortals .....who you gonna call ?
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    24 August 2021 @ 20:11
    Raoul - The ETS Carbon trade seems to be thinly correlated to Oil and Coal. With Oil showing a possible H&S correction, do you have any concerns about a strong correction in the ETS?
  • RK
    Roger K.
    29 August 2021 @ 11:49
    But, but... passive flows and FED put...
  • rs
    robert s.
    16 September 2021 @ 16:40
    Raoul is it a fair assessment to state that risk assets are going to get pummeled in Q4, including that of Crypto? so a perfect buy in opportunity for Crypto would be after this happens sometime in Q4? Or do you see Crypto exploding prior to the economic growth slowdown reaching a critical inflection point in Q4, so that you dont miss the Crypto bull peak?
  • RR
    Raj R.
    17 September 2021 @ 13:47
    Great storytelling!