The Exponential Age – Adoption Part II

Published on: December 28th, 2021

The concept of network effects is not new. However, the scale of opportunity provided by network effects is only surpassed by the speed of adoption we are witnessing in real time. Whilst crypto has already validated my exponential thesis, once Metcalfe’s law is applied to other disruptive technologies and businesses, my adoption approach will similarly be validated. Time is not on our side. The future is now.

Comments

  • BR
    Bhanu R.
    28 December 2021 @ 20:13
    Thanks Raoul. Any suggestions on investment options ?
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      29 December 2021 @ 11:56
      My opinion is that if you want to invest in exponential age stocks you have to take a sector approach and that is probably best expressed via (a combi of) ETF's. Obviously ARKK comes to mind and perhaps during a next stock market downturn this gets into buyable territory, but also look at things like DTEK, GTEK, EQJS and you can even add a more crypto oriented ETF like BLOK. Of course there is Matthew Balls's metaverse ETF. Just my two cents....I know you did not ask me the q but hope you did not mind me jumping in :-)
    • JS
      Justin S.
      4 January 2022 @ 17:11
      Have a look at Scottish Mortgage Trust listed in London, not managed by "rock stars" like Neil Woodford or Kathy Wood, just well run teams under the Baillie Gifford banner - and it's got nothing to do with mortgages! It's one of the places I'll be parking some crypto profits for the longer term, along with Ark's Genome fund and a small basket of fangs...
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      12 January 2022 @ 14:29
      Didn't Ballie Gifford have quite a big position in Tesla?
  • KB
    Kirk B.
    30 December 2021 @ 02:01
    I am 76 years old (born in 1945), and, while I completely agree with Raoul's Exponential Thesis and insight regarding Metcalfe's law, I don't think that the Exponential Age is limited to the future. I have lived in the Exponential Age throughout my lifetime. Transformative, exponential changes with network effects, that I have experienced, and are now taken for granted, include: Fed Ex overnight mail, Faxing, airplane travel, intercity automobile travel, television, computers, personal computers, smart phones, Internet 1.0, Internet 2.0 (Facebook, google, and Amazon), and digital assets.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      12 January 2022 @ 13:56
      Great point sir.
  • KB
    Keith B.
    30 December 2021 @ 16:34
    Great insight and great perspective. I have found over the years that having real perspective on the events and changes as they occur has incalculable value. thank you
  • BB
    Blake B.
    29 December 2021 @ 20:37
    Thank you for the information
  • MG
    Marc G.
    29 December 2021 @ 19:27
    I wonder with the growth rate in crypto will continue to grow at 80% especially when Raoul posted on twitter that volume hasn't really increased and new active wallets have peaked in early 2021. It seems that crypto has become a one sided traded where everyone is now long. If institutions are not coming in like people were expecting and there are no new incremental buyers, could a dip in prices be bigger that what people expect? I am long crypto but I still think that people have lofty price targets in 2022 since that did not happen in 2021. I do think crypto will underperform people's expectations in 2022. But then again a 3x move would still be considered an underperformance compared to people's expectations.
  • AH
    Anthony H.
    28 December 2021 @ 17:41
    Thank you Raoul, great work as always. Are you still 99% crypto until the meaningful rally, or hedging and scaling off? In the same boat and always pondering if / when the next rally comes before the longer bear cycle.
    • MA
      Muhammad A.
      29 December 2021 @ 06:32
      IMO, an exponential growth curve such as what we see in crypto cannot be hedged through any overlays such as either options or other instruments. You just have to size the position based on the extremely high volatility and let it ride up or down, while scaling in as more dry powder is available when market goes through an extreme bearish 2SD downturn. Scaling down is not an option unless you are at the macro top, timing local tops is not really possible for regular people given the volatility unless that is all you are doing through Algos. For Bitcoin, the market cycle is lengthening, as you would expect and volatility has been trending down over time also, albeit slowly. We are no where close to a macro top right now so scaling down would just mean getting caught off guard when it eventually rips when people least expect it, dealing this through sizing would be the best option.
  • SS
    Sebastian S.
    28 December 2021 @ 21:18
    Raul and team at RV, no doubt the Exponential Age series with the addition of the big macro framework that you did with Robert Breedlove are seminal pillars to understand where we are, why we are here, where we are going directionally, what can be the consequences of not understanding and what tremendous opportunities lie ahead as exponential technologies accelerate and converge like never seen in human history... I am particularly fascinated by 2 things: 1. how the interplay between Gold and Bitcoin will be as reserve assets moving forward. We have all heard the ones that are all in on one of the 2 claiming the death of the other, there are those that find value in both and there is the reality of major players suppression of gold price, paper assets and what that will mean potentially for bitcoin too if major institutions work to manipulate and suppress price too... I am not an expert in the field, my background is science and medicine, work in biotech and have been fascinated by learning about macro investment over the past years... 2. How will the crypto space evolve. Bitcoin has a very clear and solid use case, it does not need to be anything else to be a huge success. However there are many investment and trading opportunities in this space as Raul has showed us early on (vs maximalism), yet how will people realize those gains? To buy more BTC, to obtain more FIAT and buy other assets, to fund the new hot crypto project that can return 1000X in short term and keep playing that game across community tokens, NFTs, metaverse plays, etc... Maybe these are 2 questions that do not have a simple answer, or they are simply unknown, but that make me want to go deeper down the rabbit hole to understand where this is all going and if it truly will have the potential to create a better world with more people adhering to sound money principles (Gold, Bitcoin, high time preferences...) or if human nature and financial incentives will turn all this into the same casino we live in today. I feel privileged to be part of this community Sebastian