Thanks for the update, was waiting impatiently for it. Did you keep the ED Dec 19, call @98.0 / put @98.5? I still hold it, but if we have any deeper correction then all the profit is gone. Sold other positions. Thx in advance

I am not sure how superior ECRI vs other leading indicators. Suggestions and comments?

Can somebody help plz I'm looking for a few foreign industries that have potential to move with an appreciating USD Japans Logistic/Transportation, Chinas Medical distributors, China Wholesale Distributors and Hong Kong Wireless Technology Companies that i can trade i've been googling FOR OVER an hour and have only managed to find Lenovo, bei gene ltd & zai lab . anybody got any more to add to this ? Cheers

Raoul - can i get your thoughts on steepener here? in your scenarios given on FED cut, if market gets disappointed July 31, do you see a case for more steepening or flattening?

The dollar is getting very close to breaking out... HUGe move in Euro today. If this conforms, then the BIG trade of Buy Dollars, Buy Bonds, Wear Diamonds will set up perfectly...

Some major issues with this report. Wrt Treasury balances with the Fed, while clearly a surge in new issuance will withdraw liquidity from the system, the major omission here is that this balance has been cycling +/- $300 billion continuously, and US financial conditions have still be easing (and $ has been range bound). So the idea that this is a game changer is misleading at best. The Fed will also probably stop shrinking the balance sheet in Q4. So if you look at a time series of the combined net change to the Treasury balance with the Fed and the Fed balance sheet, the total liquidity effects should ease, not tighten. Add in expectations for rate cuts (2 or 4, it doesn’t matter) and the prospect of a standing repo facility in Q1, and it seems pretty clear global USD conditions will also be easing in the next 3-6 months. The latest beige book, for example, implied as much. For the dollar, the idea that the dollar has had every reason to fall and hasn’t is just as true as the statement that the dollar has had every chance to break to upside but hasn’t. It is just poor reasoning (in either direction) to propose that just because A hasn’t happened, that somehow B is more likely to happen soon. An important qualitative reference point to keep in mind is that no major instance of a trade conflict or tensions has ever resulted in a stronger dollar. Finally for ECRI, this a used and abused indicator. Even the head of the organization is on record recently as saying that the US economy is not yet late cycle. Looking at the series, recent data and anticipating the impact of a big positive balance sheet shock in the US from the equity and bond rallies, there is nothing to suggest that this “rolling over” will be different from the last 4 instances this cycle and cause the ECRI (and better indicators) to break through a pretty stable range to the downside. Doom loopers are quite vulnerable to confirmation bias.