The World’s Best Trade

Published on: August 21st, 2020

Raoul zeroes in on what he thinks is going to be the best performing trade in the world over the next eighteen months.

Comments

  • PW
    Patrick W.
    11 September 2020 @ 12:24
    If this analysis is right, you can consider my message here as an agreement to pre-pay ten years of RV Pro. After all, it will cost only 0.14 Bitcoin.
  • BF
    Brad F.
    21 August 2020 @ 15:50
    Great piece Raoul, I think this is definitely the EuroDollar trade for 2020 and will balance the scales with Julian's book :-) Join the conversation in the RV Fans Pro Slack Channel - BTC is a hot topic in #crypto-btc and to convexity is even steeper in #crypto-alts http://bit.ly/rv-pro-slack
    • SB
      Steven B.
      7 September 2020 @ 21:25
      Hey Brad, can you provide an updated link to the Pro slack channel, this one expired. Thanks :-)
  • MJ
    Mark J.
    26 August 2020 @ 23:05
    First of all, I believe you Raoul and am an absolute disciple of the digital currency revolution that has to take over from the fiat system in order for governments to sunset their fiat debt obligations amongst many, many other factors. My question though is this, in terms of appreciation from here, every time we have a halving and a material leap up in BTC price, it becomes psychologically more difficult for the retail punter on the margin to part ways with their fiat for crypto. At the last halving one could still hope to own a whole bitcoin, fully intact and ready for action for most of the retail investor community, but by no means all clearly. My point is this, as the price increases it becomes exponentially harder for the marginal retail investor to drive it higher in my opinion, fractional ownership takes a fundamental belief in the complete ownership first. Therefore, the next major (2x+) up from here requires the institutional investor to drive it there. I think they will, without question and to your point on market cap of BTC by necessity, but in the next 12-18 months? I want that to be true, but I’m not quite there yet.... Having said that I’m buying on the dips and diversifying across the crypto landscape, so I’m by no means disagreeing, just maybe questioning the timing aspect of your thesis.
    • PR
      Private R.
      27 August 2020 @ 06:58
      Young people seem to have reverted to 'stacking sats' rather than owning a whole Bitcoin, I get your point though but this is just a case of a switch to mBTC or something like that.
  • MG
    Mike G.
    27 August 2020 @ 03:17
    Raoul, if PlanB's stock to flow price comes true, MicroStrategy's $250M BTC investment would match 80 years of company profit in 1 year enabling them to buy out all competitors (according to Preston Pysh). Are other tech companies (both public & private) aware of this possibility & considering taking sizeable positions based on that probable outcome alone?
  • AC
    Adam C.
    24 August 2020 @ 15:24
    BTC vs Gold: 1) Harder (truly limited supply) 2) More salable (no physical transport) 3) More divisible (1e-6 BTC) 4) Higher yielding (BlockFi pays 6%, but you have added counter-party risk) I love gold, but in my opinion BTC is superior in every way. When you consider the current market penetration... phenomenal. I am GenX. As a minority generation, our investment strategy needs to straddle the Boomers and Millennials (Gold and BTC). Boomers will buy gold due to fears of currency debasement but most probably wont live to see it. Millennials will buy BTC due to actual currency devaluation in their lifetimes. I've been long BTC since late 2016, and have the scars to prove it (HODL). For me it has always been clear where this is headed. The greatest unknowns have been timing and the exact path. Raoul, your assessment has been spot on, and your enthusiasm convinced me to increase my position substantially!
  • AS
    Alan S.
    21 August 2020 @ 14:38
    It would be nice if this actually opened and was accessible.
    • RM
      Rohan M.
      21 August 2020 @ 14:50
      I can access it.
    • JI
      Janne I.
      21 August 2020 @ 19:01
      When I open the report it still shows the BTC logo and little bit of Raoul's head. Some bug but downdload works :)
    • PW
      Patrick W.
      24 August 2020 @ 14:27
      Reading reports on Brave opens a tiny window with the report barely visible in the top 1/4 of the screen. Downloading works.
  • JO
    John O.
    21 August 2020 @ 16:47
    Dear Milton; I tried several times to open this article. I only got a 2 inch sliver every time. Something needs to be fixed. Good article though.
    • RA
      Robert A.
      21 August 2020 @ 22:27
      Me too. Same thing happened with Raoul's trade update the other day too.
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      24 August 2020 @ 13:12
      Hey John, apologies for the late reply. This was an issue on Friday but it got quickly fixed.
  • JG
    Johan G.
    21 August 2020 @ 20:16
    Raoul, I agree Bitcoin looks good technically, and as a store of value crypto has potential. But two questions for you Raoul. 1. The energy consumption of Bitcoin rises roughly proportionally to its value as far as I understand it. Today Bitcoin consumes about 0,5% of the worlds electricity, and if the value goes up twenty times that would grow to 10% . Am I wrongly informed? If not, is that feasible?https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption/ 2. If Bitcoin rises stellarly, is it acceptable for a functioning market that a few whales control such a big part of the currency? Grateful for any insights.
    • BF
      Brad F.
      21 August 2020 @ 23:21
      Bitcoin’s energy consumption is driven by economics so the price increase drives investment in mining rigs which drives energy consumption. But if the energy usage of BTC were to become unsustainable the price of energy would increase and the economics would push back the other way. This is true of almost all things they represent the energy cost of their creation. One can argue that it is wasteful but one can argue that the vast majority of human activity is actually wasteful. And the fiat money system is certainly responsible for a lot of wasted energy. Interestingly this scenario would result in bitcoin creating cpi inflation. Not someone had ever considered.
    • JG
      Johan G.
      22 August 2020 @ 12:11
      Brad, If the energy cost goes up as a result of an appreciating Bitcoin, then Bitcoin mining will crowd out other industrial activity that actually creates value/utility. Unacceptable in my world. In a world that tries to reduce the total carbon footprint I do not think that will be allowed to happen.
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      24 August 2020 @ 12:40
      10% seems like a very big number. Currently, the estimated energy consumption of the worldwide internet is a bit more than 10%. (https://www.insidescandinavianbusiness.com/article.php?id=356). If we take in consideration that a big part of the internet capacity is being used for (stupid) video's and porn than probably BTC seems like a more usefull way to consume energy:)
  • DB
    Dan B.
    23 August 2020 @ 00:21
    @raoul / others - how far do we think this thing pulls back in the short term?
    • JC
      Joel C.
      24 August 2020 @ 03:31
      check out Tone Vays for the best TA on BTC... will help you time your entries
  • JS
    John S.
    22 August 2020 @ 01:15
    I'm torn between adding more at these levels to transition into also being irresponsibly long vs keeping some ammo (cash) should we get another sell-off. Anybody have any thoughts? $ cost average probably the best way to go
    • TL
      Taylor L.
      22 August 2020 @ 04:20
      Ya I think dollar cost averaging is the only way to play it. Just steady buys each week and then load up on a selloff
    • JC
      Joel C.
      24 August 2020 @ 03:29
      any BTC rally will also include large drawdowns... just pull up a price history... its vol on steroids... so DCA likely the best way but if you have a larger pool to deploy... keep some back for those moments... that was how i played the crash in March... those opportunities will continue to come along all the way up
  • BJ
    Brian J.
    23 August 2020 @ 14:16
    You say you add on pullbacks....how would you define a pullback?
    • JT
      James T.
      24 August 2020 @ 02:44
      around 20%, a person who I like for crypto analysis is Bob Loukas, he does great '4 year journey' videos on bitcoin you can learn alot from, this is his latest video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bjwdJY260k
  • SS
    Sean S.
    23 August 2020 @ 20:10
    "Bitwise is very close to getting approval on an ETF which will bring in every RIA into the space." As of January Bitwise withdrew their application and I don't see any public indication that the application has gained new traction. Does anyone have a line of sight to what has changed now compared to the many rejected/withdrawn ETF filings over the last 3 years?
  • PR
    Private R.
    23 August 2020 @ 09:51
    Before anyone invests in Ethereum I would recommend you listen to this podcast with its inventor. I will leave you to make your own mind up but please DYOR https://youtu.be/bTyV0yrsKjo
  • JW
    Joel W.
    22 August 2020 @ 18:23
    Is anyone using bitcoin futures? Seems like I can get exposure to the price that way, and trade in/out like I do commodities. Not the right way to hodl, but why not for trading?
    • AW
      Andy W.
      22 August 2020 @ 23:07
      Have "physical" core position alongside futures for tactical positioning.
    • Mt
      Miami t.
      23 August 2020 @ 06:12
      Yes, I use them. BRR is the ticker. But they come with a steep premium. So I only use them for the short term breakout. Margin is also extremely high on them.
  • CJ
    Christopher J.
    22 August 2020 @ 14:40
    I like your commitment - sure makes it easier for us to follow!
  • MJ
    Mike J.
    21 August 2020 @ 14:56
    Hi Raoul, I am learning from you and making money following your lead. Earlier in the year, you said your portfolio was 25% gold, 25% Bitcoin, 25% cash, 25% trades. Have you changed your portfolio to be just Bitcoin and Ethereum? Or, How are you balancing it now?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 August 2020 @ 15:42
      As Ive added to my crypto and its appreciating so Im probably 50% crypto, 20% gold, 15% cash and 15% trades.
    • WW
      Will W.
      21 August 2020 @ 20:22
      As a fellow semi-boomer I salute you for that allocation! I have my bullion at SWP and was hoping to get down there, but with the travel restrictions not sure when that will happen.
    • JK
      Jake K.
      22 August 2020 @ 12:08
      50% crypto = SKIN IN THE GAME
  • Mt
    Miami t.
    22 August 2020 @ 06:06
    In Europe there are some reasonable Crypto ETF's listed. I prefer those above the US listed Greyscale funds because of their low premiums. They trade on Nasdaq Sweden and trade about 10 hours a day. https://coinshares.com/etps/xbt-provider
  • HC
    Ho C.
    21 August 2020 @ 16:30
    Hi Raoul, Are there other vehicles to be long bitcoin/ etherium apart from Galaxy Digital holdings which you recommend?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 August 2020 @ 19:00
      Not really as yet.
    • TL
      Taylor L.
      22 August 2020 @ 04:26
      $MSTR is an equity way to play it - they recently purchased $250Mil worth of it. https://ir.microstrategy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/microstrategy-adopts-bitcoin-primary-treasury-reserve-asset
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    21 August 2020 @ 16:53
    Raoul, what is the best way to own bitcoin and ethereal? What are your thoughts on GBTC and ETHE?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 August 2020 @ 18:58
      I prefer outright ownership via an exchange like Kraken and then stored in a Ledger Nano X or similar.
    • EA
      Esqandar A.
      22 August 2020 @ 01:23
      Jameson Lopp’s website : lopp.net : is the best reference to how to handle your bitcoins.
  • GM
    Gary M.
    21 August 2020 @ 19:18
    My ‘fin-tech’ bank here in the UK tells me I can buy Bitcoin. What am I buying and what are they buying?
    • PR
      Private R.
      21 August 2020 @ 22:56
      possibly rehypothecated BTC that you can never take custody of I would imagine. Buy the real thing, its cheaper too from the right exchange
  • AF
    Anoop F.
    21 August 2020 @ 15:02
    Thanks for this Raoul. What is your view on paper wallets as a means of storing bitcoin? How reliable and hack-proof are they? Question open to everyone here..
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 August 2020 @ 15:36
      Don't know. I use Ledger Nano X.
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      21 August 2020 @ 22:47
      get a hardware wallet like ledger or ellipal
  • WH
    William H.
    21 August 2020 @ 16:48
    I’m long BTC and ETH. My biggest concern though is China banning BTC. The more wealth outflow via crypto, the chances go up imho.
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      21 August 2020 @ 22:45
      China Have tried banning Crypto before. So has India and a few other countries from memory... Nothing can stop it.
  • DW
    Dean W.
    21 August 2020 @ 21:46
    I've dabbled in BTC and wallets for a few years, more out of curiosity but never bought much or had much conviction until recently. Seems like the price of nearly all investible asset classes are now strongly manipulated by the Big Players (CBs, primary dealers, sovereign wealth funds, hedgies, etc). BTC seems like one of the few assets still directly outside the reach of the usual Big Players, (although I'm probably going to find out about the BTC big players the hard way). The only way for the usual Big Players to get control of BTC is to buy into it, so I might as well get there early. Also, listening to Lyn Alden helped convince me, as well as this most timely big picture perspective from Raoul.
  • PR
    Private R.
    21 August 2020 @ 20:11
    Seem to be quite a few people around who are not sure how to invest, GBTC is ok but its not really how you do Bitcoin, might be a useful episode to do some training, buying from an exchange, transferring to wallet, I know, stuff around on youtube but just a thought.
  • BK
    Brian K.
    21 August 2020 @ 19:50
    Good piece. Even as a punter, I enjoyed it.
  • MC
    Mathieu C.
    21 August 2020 @ 16:40
    Please include the correlation watch in your work, that's likely to be the main trigger for your thesis. At the moment if I am not missing anything, nothing else "new" back you up. Good luck. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bitcoin-reaches-record-high-correlation-to-sp-500-2020-07-10
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 August 2020 @ 18:59
      Use the correlation to buy into weakness. The correlation is short term and shifting over time.
  • TA
    T A.
    21 August 2020 @ 16:50
    is it a buy right here right now ?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 August 2020 @ 18:58
      Use the weakness if you don't have any...
  • JI
    Janne I.
    21 August 2020 @ 18:56
    "I’m 66% BTC and 33% ETH currently" of your whole portfolio?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 August 2020 @ 18:58
      No, my crypto split.
  • PR
    Private R.
    21 August 2020 @ 18:22
    Great read, I'm long BTC and held some ETH but it just gave me sleepless nights so I ditched it. I know ETH will perform well but just don't have the conviction in it - centralised nature of its origins, high ambitions and delays over 2.0 - just makes me nervous. Can still see it at 5,000 though.
    • PR
      Private R.
      21 August 2020 @ 18:28
      Oh yeah and the other day they weren't even sure of their issuance
  • MD
    Matthew D.
    21 August 2020 @ 17:58
    Buy Bitcoin, Wear Diamonds?
  • nw
    nicholas w.
    21 August 2020 @ 14:48
    It opens, and God I hope you are right Raoul. "Irresponsibly long" were not the Words used by the Other Half... A bit rich given what the ponies cost- but that's probably her point, and might explain the knot between my shoulders.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 August 2020 @ 15:43
      haha
  • JR
    Jason R.
    21 August 2020 @ 14:48
    Raoul, Do you really think BTC has the potential to increase 20X in the next 12-18 months? That would put the total value of the 21M coins at around $5 trillion. With the total value of all gold ever mined at say $13.5 T, does this seem logical in that time frame? And, what would drive that level of value acceleration in that short a time span? Don't get me wrong...I am also a fan of this asset class and I have RV to thank for really opening up my eyes to the potential. Just checking in on the assumptions. Thanks.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 August 2020 @ 15:43
      $200,000+ would be my upside for this move, potentially (clearly no guarantees!)
  • WT
    William T.
    21 August 2020 @ 15:09
    As well as owning Bitcoin I assume Galaxy Digital would continue to be a way to play it ?
    • NC
      Nicholas C.
      21 August 2020 @ 15:32
      I like exposure to galaxy too because of their venture side. Their last earnings report was released last Friday. Confirmed my continued position in the stock.
  • NC
    Nicholas C.
    21 August 2020 @ 15:05
    I feel this is the “buy and go to the beach“ trade many have been asking about. keep your coins in cold storage folks....
  • JW
    J W.
    21 August 2020 @ 15:02
    CONVICTION