Tiger, Tiger

Published on: November 27th, 2020

As the electoral fog clears and promising developments on the CV19 vaccine front have materialized, what is to stop us
jumping straight into a reflation portfolio, fully geared? Should we be concerned about the gap between a still gloomy present and the blue sky of the post-Covid uplands? Can all the imbalances just be magicked away by policy levers or does something nastier have to happen in the meantime? Julian’s presentation here and the feedback of institutional clients battle this one out. The Asian Tiger, however, may be getting ready to party through the decade.

Comments

  • AW
    Agus W.
    30 November 2020 @ 08:21
    Given JB view that precious metals need dollar to fall and inflation fears to rise together with YCC, and that the current rate of change of YoY growth has turned positive in US, does that bode badly for PMs until the above multiple conditions are met? (ie bad for PMs these few months unless the lockdowns accelerate to knock down growth next 3-6 months?) Thank you for the deep dive notes.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      2 December 2020 @ 14:45
      I think the last few days have shown us that PMs just needed to know that the fiscal and monetary authorities have not fallen asleep on the job. There are enormous deflationary pressures in the economy (see RP's very well fleshed out arguments). The only disagreement between RP and JB is on the extent and efficacy of the authorities response. Well, Trump lost, but the Republican Senate is still going to do a deal. Turns out that no one wants to home school their kids for too long!
    • AW
      Agus W.
      4 December 2020 @ 14:55
      Thank you for the reply Harry. Further question if you would: I understand your point about the extent and efficacy of the authorities response being the disagreement between RP and JB. However, given that Q2 2021 will almost be a monster positive YoY GDP growth, would that not almost guarantee PM underperformance then or is RP point about growth being so bad by Q2 2021 that YoY growth will be negative or similar level? Of course, it can also be a combination of YCC and positive YoY growth and CPI that will result in a positive for PMs.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      9 December 2020 @ 15:11
      Forgive my late reply Agus. It depends on how the authorities choose to stimulate. If they stimulate with fiscal then PMs may be outperformed by other assets, but they will probably go up. The essential thing is that there is sufficient monetary accommodation. The Fed has to accommodate sufficiently to prevent real yields rising. They probably will. If they fail to accomodate stimulus, then actually gold could suffer.
    • AW
      Agus W.
      10 December 2020 @ 09:29
      Thank you for the reply Harry appreciate it and happy holidays!
  • GN
    George N.
    29 November 2020 @ 17:24
    I see that there are a lot of positive comments, but I feel that constructive criticism would be more useful to convey as it would help make the RV service more competitive. On this note, if I were to compare the reports I typically get to read at RV to other services (I subscribe to three other services, each a fraction of what RV charges), I would say that investment ideas in their reports tend to be significantly better fleshed out. In fact, the (relative) lack of depth in RV reports has prevented me from taking any positions recommended by JB, except for the ones that coincided with recommendations from other services. I realize that JB is quite busy- perhaps a more junior member of the RV team could help prepare these reports?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      30 November 2020 @ 12:48
      Thanks for the feedback George and believe me we really do appreciate the engagement. I think some of it may be that the reports build on previous reports, so for example the investment case for Gold (or silver) was first outlined quite some time ago, and it can be difficult to justify going back and restating it every time we reiterate. But perhaps I am off base. Can you give an example of a recommendation you felt could have been better fleshed out? What was missing from the idea? If you don't want to communicate via comments, perhaps you could email me your thoughts. harry@mi2partners.com
    • JH
      Jonathon H.
      2 December 2020 @ 11:19
      I think George's point is well made. The ideas Julian presents are consistently good, but finding one that I can readily adopt could be easier with more colour. This month for example Harry would be the EM play which I am looking at closely. It is an interesting theme, but why does JB recommend Sth Africa over Taiwan or Sth Korea? What basis should we allocate to Brazil over Mexico? I think this would certainly add value for me, cheers
    • SG
      Soros G.
      2 December 2020 @ 22:33
      The basic stance of Julian (which is fair, if that's the mandate) that he brought up when someone suggested an alternative to DBA: he's providing macro analysis and thematic investment ideas, not necessarily portfolio construction or security analysis, which anyway would be hard given his research originates in institutional environment then here we have a huge range of investors. Of course, I'm not saying this is how ultimately RVpro should function, just an explanation.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      9 December 2020 @ 15:05
      All good points and Andras is pretty accurately stated JBs thoughts on this. Its tricky to get too micro on things, and quite often we are just doing a macro analysis combined with something which looks good technically. Its not meant to be a micro analysis which might include a lot of additional background. Sometimes we can give you a lot of background but it would make reports even longer. A great example is Copper. There are excellent reasons for why copper is both a commodity play and a really strong micro story about electrification. But we dont have an edge in that story, and you might be better off looking at some other analysis to assess. The complete investment universe is just too big for us to cover everything.
  • RE
    Richard E.
    3 December 2020 @ 02:44
    In the report, Julian mentions that trading long breakeven inflation rates isn't as easy to express for private investors as it requires " the investor to buy TIPs and sell normal conventional Treasuries simultaneously" . My question is could this desired trade be accurately expressed in an ETF form by pairing short IEF and long TIP because the effective duration for each ETF is essentially the same ? Thank you
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      7 December 2020 @ 13:06
      if "essentially" was "exactly" then yes. But cos it isnt, there is scope for losing money (or making more than you expect) because of the mismatch. Fixed income guys are generally very precise cos they are throwing around big numbers, and small errors become big errors when you are using large nominal sizes. But yes, you could use a short in a nominal bond fund versus a long in a TIP fund and get what should be a long breakeven exposure.
  • OT
    Omar T.
    28 November 2020 @ 05:18
    Fantastic. Needs a little more than one line about btc confiscation :) but how does this view change if Republicans control the senate and go all austerity on Biden like was done to Obama
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      29 November 2020 @ 13:59
      It would change the view tactically but not strategically. Its true, that we could get a nasty risk correction if we starve the economy of stimulus at the wrong time. But the end of covid is in sight. My guess is there will be a skinny package (which may be just enough), and then we will have the end of Covid inventory building cycle. Remember, the Republicans also run states which are running out of money for schools. Both sides have an incentive to do a deal, its just a question of how the benefits are shared.
    • B
      Benjamin .
      30 November 2020 @ 09:11
      +1 on btc confiscation - how exactly would that work?
  • MA
    Muhammad A.
    30 November 2020 @ 04:28
    As always, exceptional JB. Thanks for this!!
  • RM
    Richard M.
    29 November 2020 @ 15:59
    Wow, now that was a real tour de force!!! Fantastic write-up and analysis, lots and lots to think about and ponder. Really looking forward to future editions as Julian updates and builds these various theses out.
  • BM
    BENJAMIN M.
    28 November 2020 @ 04:46
    A terrific analysis I thoroughly enjoyed reading. Julian has the concern about Brexit negotiations going into year-end now entirely evaporated, or do you see that as a potential catalyst for the “one more nasty surprise” before your main narrative dominates?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      29 November 2020 @ 14:01
      No, concerns have not completely evaporated. I will check with JB, but I think the odds of a "deal" are high. However that deal might be much worse than is commonly understood and might cause a lot of disruption. That said, markets (which have excellent sources) seem to be quite sanguine on some kind of solution being found. What we do know, is that no one has sterling or sterling assets. Massively under invested.
  • SD
    Sudipta D.
    28 November 2020 @ 05:06
    One of the best piece of research I have ever seen. A fantastic way to build up the narrative. This is something really valuable and worth the membership. Thanks Julien. What is your view on ESG segment? That also seems to be a great opportunity but for retail investors hardly any good options to choose from other than copper and silver. Will be good if you cover that sometimes later.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      29 November 2020 @ 13:55
      Dont fight ESG. Julian had me do some basic research into it for him and he wrote a report on it. Bottom line, ESG is capitalism response to the unique challenges that Climate Change poses. Increasing amounts of money will be funneled into ESG. Unambiguously ESG compliant plays will attract increasing amounts of cash and be increasingly highly-rated. He doubted that the ESG solution would be unambiguously good, as it would create new corporate governance issues and new capital market distortions. But it was (and is) a fact on the ground. Dont fight it.
  • AP
    Alistair P.
    29 November 2020 @ 04:55
    Excellent in all aspects. This is the content that I am here for! Any comment as to the potential significance of the still relatively large speculative short positioning across notes and bonds...
  • JG
    Johan G.
    28 November 2020 @ 22:40
    Thanks Julian, I can confirm that we see consolidation and increasing pricing power in our business.(Cyclical) The 1000 dollar question is if we get a deflationary shock in asset prices before reflation/inflation gets started, or if stimulus is enough to bridge the gap. I am still very uncertain......
  • AD
    Andy D.
    28 November 2020 @ 20:11
    ‘Bubblicious’ Julian!
  • AS
    Alexander S.
    28 November 2020 @ 15:08
    Outstanding Julian. Thank you. PS; Pls check out IMF’s Covid response page for data on G20 fiscal stimulus. Mind boggling!
  • SG
    Soros G.
    28 November 2020 @ 08:15
    Seems like someone pulled the Tiger's tail last time and he came back roaring :) Masterclass of a report, thank you Julian!
  • JM
    John M.
    28 November 2020 @ 06:13
    Nicely played
  • WJ
    Willie J.
    28 November 2020 @ 02:15
    Divergence of views strengthening between RP and JB... i would like them unpack their UST thesis in a bit more depth than what we get to see in the normal monthly check-in... deflation shock vs. Full on reflation, YCC, inflation vs. Deflation for 2021 / 2022. USD weakness in this period... milkshake theory vs. Expected devaluation.

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

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MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

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Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

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Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

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What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

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Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

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Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

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CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.