By the time this was emailed SPX had already hit 4400.

I think over the years in Macro Insiders (I've been a subscriber since the start) Julian has been biased towards inflation and has been a bit of a bond vigilante. When in fact it's been Raoul's simple chart of truth that has played out. Julian once said on an insider talks a couple years ago that best trade of next 5 years would be short treasuries (Raoul said Gold, it was a while ago). Maye the current environment is feeding Julian's psychological biases? I see the historical analogue between dotcom Nasdaq bust and the current ARKK chart pattern. But I have to say, if you search for $ARKK on twitter the sentiment and the comments are horrendous. Then you have the Michael Burry short, and short interest in general in ARKK has increased dramatically. I forget the exact amount but I think its like 20% short interest. Plus someone is bringing out an inverse ARKK ETF. The contrarian in me looks at all that and goes 'hmmmm'. I think Cathie Wood has been one of the most slandered people in the market for the last 5 years whilst at the same time being one of the most successful. She publicly publishes all of their research, posts their trades daily and has regular public investor updates via YouTube. I don't think I've ever seen someone so transparent in financial markets. But such transparency also opens her up to ridicule and criticism, of which there are many haters. Re inflation I honestly think we are in an unprecedented time. It's unclear what the longer run effects of this stimulus will be. All the structural disinflationary forces remain. Yes, YoY inflation is higher but coming from a low base and I think its pretty obvious the global economy has experienced some pretty significant disruptions. I'm not saying we won't get sustained inflation but I am saying I don't think you can compare this to any other period in history or analyse it within a conventional framework. I own a couple Air BnB's and they have been sitting empty for months and just about to open up again (I'm in NSW, Australia, so been under intense lockdown). So the only thing people here can spend money on is on consumer goods over the internet. But now we're about to open up again and the bookings are flying in and services expenditure looks like it may rise. If you have a smaller basket of items you can spend money on of course those items are going to go up in price. But maybe the basket will get bigger again? Meanwhile the fiscal sugar injections are getting gradually taken off (at least in Australia and the policies seem to be globally coordinated) and who knows what the Fed is going to do in terms of how much they taper but some less consequential central banks are already taking the foot off the gas. That could suck some of the wind out of inflation. Coupled with some supply chain & disruption effects that get solved over time and the inflation that literally EVERYONE is shouting from the tree tops might not be so bad in like a year. When I'm reading about something in the newspaper or on the front page of The Economist you'd think it's already been priced into markets. I think there's a big difference between goods inflation as a result of supply disruption and a sustained inflationary regime. The other thing we should note is that unlike in most recessions or downturns that actually results in firms shutting down and reduces overall capacity, the stimulus was so large and so supportive that a lot of firms survived, which ordinarily would have not. So as things open up more and more and supply disruptions get solved, because we did not cleanse out excess capacity in the economy from the recession but rather kept it on life support, we are probably starting this cycle with a lot more capacity than we would coming out of a typical recession. The firms and the employees are still mostly there, at least in Australia, because of all the wage support and other subsidies (rental debt repayment amnesties). We didn't get the capital destruction. I understand the US has a different employment picture and some challenges there but we did not get the capital destruction typical inn a recession. Meanwhile I don't think we can underappreciate the slowdown going on in China and its effects on Global Growth. Has already hammered iron ore and the like. And there's many examples in history of energy prices rallying into a deflationary episode (I know, I know, I said we can't compare this period to historical analogues, I'm a hypocrite). Going back to Cathie Wood, Raoul said on Twitter the other month that if he was going to invest in anything to lose 95% it would be the inverse ARKK ETF. I acknowledge the chart looks shocking but the Tesla chart actually looks pretty good. And that's her biggest holding. I get what Julian is saying and I respect him. But it is THE consensus position that inflation is here and here to stay. It is also THE consensus position that ARKK is a bag of shit. I might have a bit of fun with Julian and buy this said bag of shit and circle back in 3 to 6 months and report back. Thesis: contrarian trade. If it tanks I'll be bag holding a worthless pile of crap for 10 years and face public embarrassment. If makes money, Julian has to go to inflation bug bond vigilante therapy!

Would you all regard the short SPX trade as stopped out as of close of yesterday? I’m a bit confused because SPY seems to be 10% or SPX but closed just under the stop, whereas SPX futures seemed to close just above it. For those in the trade did you stop out?

Silver broke the down trendline on Wednesday.