URANIUM

Published on: November 21st, 2017

Raoul takes a dive into the Uranium market, highlighting the opportunity to buy this ‘Bombed Out’ sector…

Comments

  • AM
    Alonso M.
    1 December 2018 @ 00:22
    'Tis the season. All aboard. Train leaves soon.
  • SM
    Sanjay M.
    18 April 2018 @ 17:15
    sorry the title got cut off. I said if youre bullish Uranium short URA. why? This may sound silly but as always the ETF providers are human and so what have they done at the bottom of the Uranium cycle? They have changed the composition of the index. Ive gone to the trouble of looking at what will be in the final index (in 6 mos which they are going to be benchmarked to ; the Solactive Global Nuclear Components Total Return Index; Suffice to say that now the index includes 56% of non Uranium companies (down from 100%) with many inclusions being Korean construction companies that may get as little as 1-2% from building a nuclear power plant. Bullish on Uranium buy either liquid names like Cameco or ones that will benefit from Section 232 which are US listed Uranium cos like UUUU or UEC
    • PC
      Paul C.
      14 November 2018 @ 08:48
      Great advice, thanks Sanjay.
  • PC
    Paul C.
    3 November 2018 @ 17:30
    Continuing... Although as Raoul pointed out in one of the talks - these illiquid stocks can get smashed-in during a economic downturn. All of the uranium miners that I mention below were down by 50-75% (some more) after the GFC. So my strategy will be to buy now - small enough that I can take the pain of a 75% pull-back & then buy in bigger at better prices when the data shows global growth is strengthening again. In addition with hedging using options trading strategies.
  • PC
    Paul C.
    3 November 2018 @ 16:31
    I'd be grateful for anyone's thoughts... I'm looking to create a basket of uranium mining stocks using CCJ, DNN, PDN.AX, UEC, URG & FCUUF. The risk/reward on some of these are potentially astronomical! I've charted their performances against the uranium spot PX... If the spot PX does what Liegh Goehring & Adam Rodman seem convinced it will, i.e. rising by 400% in 5+years... for me, the stock of DNN should tear by 3200%!
  • PC
    Paul C.
    3 November 2018 @ 16:20
    Big thanks to Raoul for highlighting this opportunity - even though I was stopped-out of URA - who cares when you look at the bigger picture!
  • JM
    John M.
    31 October 2018 @ 22:17
    i bought URA on 11/24/17 @ 15.23. and have held since. Almost got stopped out last week @ 11.60. Have not heard or seem one comment from Raoul about this trade since the day he made the recommendation accept for the comment below concerning his tweet. Now I find out I am holding the wrong ETF !! I'm quite disappointed.
  • MS
    Mitchell S.
    10 October 2018 @ 11:58
    Today on Twitter, Raoul stated that CCJ is a better play than URA. Why am I learning about this on a free / public service and not here first?
  • AM
    Alonso M.
    5 June 2018 @ 19:41
    Rewards may be lining up for those who remained patient with URA. Important tax ruling is coming out soon for CCJ, and CCJ is 25% of URA. I find that revisiting old comments is a valuable exercise. Since this was described as a long-term opportunity based on positive long-term fundamentals, I assume it is still being held.
  • SM
    Sanjay M.
    18 April 2018 @ 17:21
    I have the excel spread sheets showing how URA goes from 100% Uranium exposure to 44% but cant attach to this platform. Happy to email it to anyone interested. Hence although ura was a great etf to play uranium it no longer is and youre going to have to play individual names to play the upcycle. thanks SM
  • SM
    Sanjay M.
    18 April 2018 @ 17:14
    This may sound silly but as always the ETF providers are human and so what have they done at the bottom of the Uranium cycle? They have changed the composition of the index. Ive gone to the trouble of looking at what will be in the final index (in 6 mos which they are going to be benchmarked to ; the Solactive Global Nuclear Components Total Return Index; Suffice to say that now the index includes 56% of non Uranium companies (down from 100%) with many inclusions being Korean construction companies that may get as little as 1-2% from building a nuclear power plant. Bullish on Uranium buy either liquid names like Cameco or ones that will benefit from Section 232 which are US listed Uranium cos like UUUU or UEC
  • bb
    brian b.
    10 April 2018 @ 13:29
    i stopped out, it went into the 11's now back at 13 ish, wish Raoul would weigh in on this now...
  • Av
    AAJE v.
    20 March 2018 @ 19:36
    ‪Credit Suisse selling URA heavily yesterday with a clear spike in volume. Announcement today URA going to rebalance in Q2 increasing exposure on well capitalised stocks and decrease exposure on less capatalised companies. Any relationship? Any opinion on what effect this has on URA long term?‬
  • LM
    Lou M.
    1 March 2018 @ 17:33
    Raoul You mentioned in a recent interview when Ura was trading around 16 dollars to raise our stop loss to our entry level. Ura today is trading in the 12.70 -12.95 range which is well under previous entry levels. Would you re enter this trade and is there a re entry range you can suggest? Lou Marschak
  • GS
    Gerold S.
    31 January 2018 @ 06:35
    Maybe the same like Gold - needs more time to go up Sometimes we are to early
  • DY
    Dmytro Y.
    20 January 2018 @ 13:23
    So far URA is down about 7 percent... :((
    • WM
      Will M.
      27 January 2018 @ 14:59
      Long term hold but establish what your loss stop is in case things go south. 10% or maybe 15% max so is my own personal sell trigger
    • WM
      Will M.
      27 January 2018 @ 15:07
      Dmytro, Raoul did give 11.80 as his recommended stop loss in the article.
  • SH
    Staffan H.
    21 November 2017 @ 23:06
    Great read. I had a small position for the Jan rally but since it quickly went south have been waiting for signals to add to the position. What is your view of where it should go?
    • WM
      Will M.
      27 January 2018 @ 14:51
      Michael Oliver of MSA says to look out for Uranium closing above 27.8 for a given month. MSA work is excellent get a trial!
  • DY
    Dmytro Y.
    14 December 2017 @ 11:57
    Hi Raoul, couple of questions. 1) how new power plants in China and india will lock in the price of uranium? What if that goes from Kazakhstan under state owned channels on subdued prices in exchange for investment or other non free market benefits thus downplaying any upside to URA? 2) there is info saying current stock of Uranium are good for another 5 years of consumption thus suggesting no price rebound in near future. Could these issues be addressed ? Thank you
  • DY
    Dmytro Y.
    14 December 2017 @ 11:57
    Hi Raoul, couple of questions. 1) how new power plants in China and india will lock in the price of uranium? What if that goes from Kazakhstan under state owned channels on subdued prices in exchange for investment or other non free market benefits thus downplaying any upside to URA? 2) there is info saying current stock of Uranium are good for another 5 years of consumption thus suggesting no price rebound in near future. Could these issues be addressed ? Thank you
  • JM
    John M.
    4 December 2017 @ 18:46
    Interesting news in case anyone hasn't noticed. Kazakhstan also cuts uranium production. http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/UF-Kazakhstan-to-cut-uranium-production-0412177.html
  • WD
    Wim D.
    1 December 2017 @ 19:58
    recently some Volatility in uranium stocks...often at turning points ;-)
  • SM
    Sanjay M.
    30 November 2017 @ 19:52
    Hi Raoul Thanks for the note on URA in macro insiders. I was wondering on a few things. The technicals seem mixed because although the stock broke above 14.60 its again now sub the break out spot. Do you buy it here given it did try to break out? Secondly, there have been a string of announcements of production cuts- most recently Cameco’s but on every spike it appears the market quickly forgets about it. What’s different about the trend now? Also although the industry is in oversupply and is expected to shift to under supply in the future with supply being taken out and all the new reactors this is not going to happen for years. So why do you think people will start pricing this now? Thanks
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    29 November 2017 @ 06:54
    Hi Many people are saying the stock markets are "over-valued on many metrics". So if there is a "20% Correction" in the SP500, DOW, Russell-2000 (or pick your Index), what might happen to a "Bombed Out" sector like Uranium or Offshore Oil & Gas Companies?
  • ET
    Eldon T.
    23 November 2017 @ 17:39
    Admittedly, this subject matter is over my head but I have been reading recently about Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors (LFTR) as an alternative to conventional nuclear. Apparently still in the development stage, it seems to offer all the upsides of nuclear energy without the downside of radioactive waste. It would seem this would pose strong competition to the uranium industry. I've read a number of countries are working on it including the Chinese. Perhaps short term this offers no competition to uranium. Anyway, just thought I'd throw it out and see what kind of reaction I get.
    • MS
      Morten S.
      24 November 2017 @ 08:33
      I would like some informed input on this subject as well. All the way back in 2011 I saw a TEDx by Kirk Sorensen. It is still a topic at recent TED's and apparently no one is utilizing this fantastic source of clean energy. So why is it not being utilized if its so fantastic? I would really like to see an expert on the subject since, if its not just fairytales and unicorns, why hasn't it had its breakthrough?
    • BK
      Bernard K.
      26 November 2017 @ 09:05
      Hi Morten S., I'd like to answer your question about why Thorium isn't widely used. During the Cold War, Uranium was the favored method because a key byproduct of uranium reactors was plutonium. Plutonium was popular because it gave many countries the material needed to make nuclear weapons. While with Thorium you can't weaponized the byproducts for nuclear weapons. After the Cold War, it has mainly been inertia (the technology works other than "occasional" incidents like Fukushima and Chernobyl) and vested interests keeping competitors from easily entering the nuclear power market. I'll admit Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors are still a number of years away but, if they deliver could squeeze out most of the producers of uranium and current tech nuclear reactor manufacturers.
  • JM
    John M.
    23 November 2017 @ 05:27
    Your timing was perfect and I bought some. I assume the holding period is long term but if URA continues to move upward in the short run should we take quick (but smaller) profits or do we hold for a bigger gain longer run, notwithstanding that markets may be quite volatile in 2018?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 November 2017 @ 12:03
      I'd take quick profits (1 to 3 months) and re-buy the inevitable pull grinding back...
    • gg
      gurdeep g.
      23 November 2017 @ 14:37
      Remember ~%6 ex dividend date somewhere in December
  • DP
    Devraj P.
    23 November 2017 @ 00:41
    Hi Raoul, 5th April, 2017 Title - URANIUM OVERSUPPLY IS OVER https://www.realvision.com/rv/channel/realvision/videos/9aa5029643ed4b179967a0778ea6adc8 Mike Alkine Do you see now there is a trend change?
  • AD
    Anthony D.
    22 November 2017 @ 02:25
    Raoul, Do you have an opinion on a pure Uranium commodity play, ( U )Uranium Participation Corp?
    • AD
      Anthony D.
      22 November 2017 @ 16:33
      correction: Uranium Part. Corp (URPTF)
  • JJ
    Josh J.
    22 November 2017 @ 16:04
    Insightful. More like this would be great. I'm assuming there is no Futures contract on most brokerage platforms for Uranium. If there is, and if there is a trading strategy using Futures or Futures Options, let us know. Thanks.
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    22 November 2017 @ 06:27
    G’Day Raoul, I’m looking for feedback and understanding about your charts & numbers. You quote returns as "absolute bottom to absolute top", and I am sure you agree that type of marketing timing is near-on impossible. So -what actual returns might one be expecting on these types of trades, -how might that affect your position sizing, -and at what place (price and sentiment) would you expect to start profit-taking and closing positions?
  • sB
    sylvain B.
    22 November 2017 @ 06:15
    very good piece, as very few analyst are lookign at this market. We have been in 2Y early but completely agree with Raoul this market is poised to shoot up. Best way to play via URA. there is a aggressive closed end fund but not much liquidity called Geiger Counter
  • CS
    C S.
    22 November 2017 @ 04:18
    Just a thought: How's Zimbabwe looking now Mugabe looks to be on the outs? (I believe Jim Rogers wasnt completely negative 6-12 months ago). http://www.zse.co.zw/companies/
  • SC
    Sean C.
    22 November 2017 @ 03:26
    I'm long the URA ETF along with some additional shares in CCJ and UUUU. So far it's broken the downtrend and most likely we're in a ranging bottom. I have a sizeable position relative to my overall portfolio and I'm now swing trading small additional positions to reduce cost basis. That way I can have an easier buy and hold in case this range continues for a while.
  • AG
    Abhimanyu G.
    22 November 2017 @ 02:51
    Dear Raoul, when you mention 14.60, do you like to see it broken on a daily or weekly close? Seems like it's broken 14.60 on the daily already!
  • TF
    Terry F.
    22 November 2017 @ 00:49
    Very compelling story - thanks. I will be watching this closely. Looking forward to seeing Alan Rodman on Real Vision.
  • BD
    Borut D.
    21 November 2017 @ 22:47
    Great short piece. Perfect timing
  • JS
    John S.
    21 November 2017 @ 19:57
    Totally agree. Already building a position in a variety of uranium companies inc GXU, DYL, UEC, U and UUUU
  • DM
    Dean M.
    21 November 2017 @ 15:58
    Superb timing Raoul! Also high on my radar. Been dipping into this market. For other MI subs - 2 other companies in the space to put on your radar as good speculative companies in this space in good jurisdiction - NexGen Energy and Fission(FCU). Full disclosure - I am long both.
    • WD
      Wim D.
      21 November 2017 @ 19:19
      I am long Fission & GoviEx.
  • AM
    Alonso M.
    21 November 2017 @ 15:52
    Cameco's decision to shut in McArthur River seems to have catapulted this sector recently. I thought it was interesting that Cameco's decision to cut its dividend and shut in McArthur River caused the stock price to go higher after the initial knee jerk reaction lower. Nice timing with the article on a sector that is being totally ignored in the face of short-term supply destruction and in an environment of long-term demand creation.
  • WD
    Wim D.
    21 November 2017 @ 12:10
    Wahooo! Great minds think alike...bought some uranium miners last week!