USD, EM And Recoupling

Published on: August 13th, 2018

As the Dollar’s idiosyncratic rallies continue against one currency after another, the danger is growing that we get a real sustained and broad-based Dollar move. That will bring trouble.


  • KB
    Krystof B.
    13 August 2018 @ 21:30
    100% agree with this one. Great job!
  • LD
    Lance D.
    14 August 2018 @ 18:15
    If I'm viewing things correctly the Chicago financial conditions is easing & Kansas City is tightening is this also because of a higher $ weighting with Kansas city index or is it unique to your goldman sachs financial index ? cheers
    • LD
      Lance D.
      19 August 2018 @ 12:56
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      16 August 2018 @ 21:50
      Hi Lance, While all these indexes contain similar components ($, Fed Funds, bond yields, stocks, credit) they all use different weightings. I'm not especially familiar with the Kansas Fed model but it did start to tighten at the same time as the GS Index. So I assume it has a higher weighting than Chicago. Feel free to play around with these indexes vs various markets you are watching. There are no hard and fast rules. However, I generally use Chicago for domestic financial conditions and hence broad US equity indexes like the NYSE Composite and the GS index for overseas "$" financial conditions hence the link to EM stocks. Regards
  • GS
    George S. | Real Vision
    15 August 2018 @ 14:15
    Game ON people! We've been waiting for this for a while now.
  • ag
    anthony g.
    16 August 2018 @ 13:17
    Great article, for which many thanks. One question though - is this a bit late ? Emerging markets have already gone down a lot .... etc.
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    16 August 2018 @ 14:37
    Since macro is starting to pick up in markets and these alerts in Macro Insider are becoming more time sensitive. Can Real Vision set up an email alert to clients so we know when Raoul and/or Julian release another macro piece? Thanks
    • MG
      Miguel G.
      16 August 2018 @ 14:38
      Other than that btw I love this service just signed up for the 2 year deal!