"The number of permanently-disabled will also rise due to an alarming surge in obesity: the University of California found that Americans gained about 1.5 pounds a month since the start of the pandemic, or a total of 22.5 pounds. Anyone who has struggled with weight issues knows how hard it is to durably lose weight." This quote sounded extreme so I looked it up. It seems to refer to this study: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2777737?utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_term=032221 It is somewhat true - however it is worth noting that the sample size is very small (N=269) and that it specifically only measured the time period where there were shelter-in-place orders. So it's not 16 months * 1.5 pounds as it sounds but rather 3 months or so.

Awesome work. I’m still having a very difficult time figuring out wheather to position for inflation or deflation longer term as i suspected things may not play out so black and white and we may see inflation in some sectors and deflation in others

i'm not sure if you read these comments vince, but you do have a view on why inflation isn't showing in the bond market?

The medical and insurance piece is way more important (helps portfolio) than the inflation stuff that don't help portfolio much IMO.

You kind of wish there's itemized ESG that will punish the precatory behavior of private equity-owned hospital but I think ESG score don't apply to private equity?

In this sentence, you mention beers: "On the other hand, automobiles, beers, chemicals, and paper products suffer the most during inflationary periods." Does "beers" include beer distributors along with the beer makers? I have a client who has a pretty large beer distributing business and I am wondering if we should be preparing for hard times. Over the last 30 years, inflation has been dropping and beer distributors have done real well in deflationary recessions, but with a return to inflation, do beer distributors get hurt?