Vincent Deluard’s Compilation Report: Q2 2021

Published on: June 3rd, 2021

On June 4th at 2PM ET, Vincent Deluard of StoneX will be returning to Real Vision Live to provide his updated views on markets. In this report, which is a combination of three separate ones, Deluard examines the growth path of the “MAGA” stocks (Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Amazon) in order to identify the next hyper-growth stocks and to reflect on investors’ fixation on a “growth-at-any-cost” strategy. He also tackles the seven best arguments against inflation offered, his perspective on why they don’t hold up, and his suggestions for an inflation-proof equity portfolio. To watch Vincent’s interview discussing this report, click here: https://rvtv.io/3uQh2D2

Comments

  • Jj
    Jesse j.
    4 June 2021 @ 23:20
    Awesome work. I’m still having a very difficult time figuring out wheather to position for inflation or deflation longer term as i suspected things may not play out so black and white and we may see inflation in some sectors and deflation in others
    • VD
      Vincent D. | Contributor
      7 June 2021 @ 17:25
      thanks
  • KN
    Kresten N.
    4 June 2021 @ 10:18
    "The number of permanently-disabled will also rise due to an alarming surge in obesity: the University of California found that Americans gained about 1.5 pounds a month since the start of the pandemic, or a total of 22.5 pounds. Anyone who has struggled with weight issues knows how hard it is to durably lose weight." This quote sounded extreme so I looked it up. It seems to refer to this study: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2777737?utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_term=032221 It is somewhat true - however it is worth noting that the sample size is very small (N=269) and that it specifically only measured the time period where there were shelter-in-place orders. So it's not 16 months * 1.5 pounds as it sounds but rather 3 months or so.
    • VD
      Vincent D. | Contributor
      7 June 2021 @ 17:25
      Thanks for the precision
  • Jj
    Jesse j.
    5 June 2021 @ 00:52
    i'm not sure if you read these comments vince, but you do have a view on why inflation isn't showing in the bond market?
    • VD
      Vincent D. | Contributor
      7 June 2021 @ 17:25
      Well the bond market cannot be both a metric and a policy at the same time. The Fed owns $342 billion in TIPS so it can effectively set breakeven rates (BTW this goes in both directions... Historically the Fed has bought TIPS to "re-assure" the market about inflation expectations). The same goes with the slope of the yield curve, which has a become a policy instrument ("Operation Twist", "YCC") rather than a barometer of investors' expectations. Also, I think the bond market is supported by the stock market due to the role of target date funds. The more the stock market goes up, the more target date funds must buy bonds to "get back on track". I think that is one of the reasons for the stabilization of yields since late March
  • PP
    Percy P.
    5 June 2021 @ 07:15
    You kind of wish there's itemized ESG that will punish the precatory behavior of private equity-owned hospital but I think ESG score don't apply to private equity?
    • PP
      Percy P.
      5 June 2021 @ 07:15
      "predatory"
    • VD
      Vincent D. | Contributor
      7 June 2021 @ 17:15
      Yes ESG ratings only apply to public companies. Philosophically it is a problem as I have read that there are more private equity-owned companies than stocks in the US. Now of course private equity firms are very vocal in their embrace of ESG -- especially as no one checks the validity of their claims.
  • RL
    Randy L.
    6 June 2021 @ 23:10
    In this sentence, you mention beers: "On the other hand, automobiles, beers, chemicals, and paper products suffer the most during inflationary periods." Does "beers" include beer distributors along with the beer makers? I have a client who has a pretty large beer distributing business and I am wondering if we should be preparing for hard times. Over the last 30 years, inflation has been dropping and beer distributors have done real well in deflationary recessions, but with a return to inflation, do beer distributors get hurt?
    • VD
      Vincent D. | Contributor
      7 June 2021 @ 17:11
      Honestly I do not have the answer. My study used Fama & French data library but I could not find where their sector classifications came from so I cannot check what is included and what is not. Here is the link https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html
  • PP
    Percy P.
    5 June 2021 @ 07:13
    The medical and insurance piece is way more important (helps portfolio) than the inflation stuff that don't help portfolio much IMO.