Winter Is Here

Published on: November 20th, 2020

Raoul has been discussing his winter of discontent thesis in recent months and takes a look at how it is all playing out.

Comments

  • BR
    Brian R.
    2 December 2020 @ 23:32
    We are in the process of starting another bull run that will end in an epic melt up. We have yellen and Powell that will light a fire under asset prices that will make Bernanke look austere. The rest of the year is priced. We have interest rates at zero and monetary policy folks that will blow this shit up.
    • BR
      Brian R.
      2 December 2020 @ 23:33
      *priced in.
  • JM
    Jake M.
    20 November 2020 @ 23:16
    Raoul, and others, is there any good video/article/report/book on realvision or elsewhere that you guys feel really goes deep and yet accessible to bring insight into understanding how QE vs Fiscal policy affect economics and financial assets? I believe both QE and FP share similar goal but they do have different effects. I am interested in learning the nuances more.
    • JM
      Jake M.
      20 November 2020 @ 23:20
      My take is that is that QE by Fed is perhaps better than fiscal spending for bitcoin, because the former tends not to create inflation expectation in current environment where as the latter might and make interest rate more volatile so probably need more thought on risk management.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      2 December 2020 @ 14:42
      Personally I take the opposite view. Not because you are wrong - I agree with what you wrote. But because fiscal policy (financed by the Fed) is much more powerful in transmitting money into the economy. Its the difference between injecting intravenously and topically applying. By using fiscal policy, the money goes into the real economy before it enters the financial system. So it can act twice. Moreover, it actually supports normal commercial bank financing activity. Thats why Van Hoisington says that if we get money financed fiscal policy "all bets are off". And he is the biggest longest term UST bull.
  • EH
    Eric H.
    27 November 2020 @ 04:07
    Hello. I have read that gold has a high correlation to inflation. If this is true(?), if we are expecting deflation, why might we expect gold to hold or go up?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      2 December 2020 @ 14:38
      Cos policy makers will need to fight the deflation. If they dont, the outcomes are likely to be incredibly bad. Even if they are not proactive in fighting deflation but reactive, that will be enough to put a bid under gold. But a proactive attempt to reverse deflationary pressure is going to force a lot of "stores of value" higher.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    20 November 2020 @ 19:10
    Interesting divergence with Hedgeye. It might just be time frames, but I would like to see you and Keith McCullough discuss this outlook. It would be epic for MI subscribers since there appears to be a substantial difference in outlook. Please. Pretty Please.
    • AL
      An L.
      21 November 2020 @ 06:40
      Given it is Keith, he will switch in a heartbeat
    • AH
      Andrew H.
      24 November 2020 @ 05:16
      From a few weeks back now. They do get into Bitcoin - Raoul gets Keith up to speed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bL25p1Lv1I
  • JD
    Jesse D.
    23 November 2020 @ 19:25
    Generally, I'm pretty cynical about Wall St's taking points but the vaccine does seem promising and soon. And if that is reasonable, 6-12 months out could be pretty good, especially YOY. I think a lot of that is priced in except for energy, financials, etc. But would it not prudent to incorporate a vaccine into any investment decision?
  • EC
    Edward C.
    23 November 2020 @ 07:19
    The Conclusion is pure Gold, no pun intended!
  • WS
    Wai S.
    22 November 2020 @ 10:19
    The speculative short position in bonds - is due to reflation expectation or more fiscal stimulus (treasury supply increase causing the yield up) expected to come?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 November 2020 @ 16:06
      Mainly reflation narrative as treasury supply is backstopped by the Fed.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    21 November 2020 @ 00:07
    I can see bitcoin having a pullback at 20,000. But once it gets through 20,000 I can’t see 30% pullback except around a round number like 50,000 or 100,000. Anyone else?
    • JE
      Jonathan E.
      21 November 2020 @ 11:25
      Perhaps track what Alex Saunders (NuggetNews). To be honest though are technical charts really going to be that useful in this environment. Just buy on dips!
  • HH
    Hugh H.
    20 November 2020 @ 17:09
    Haha, the conclusion was a good one.
    • DE
      Daniel E.
      20 November 2020 @ 17:48
      Love your style, Hugh. Always enjoyable watching your interviews. Hope to run into you one day and buy you a drink!
    • Dd
      David d.
      20 November 2020 @ 19:33
      Hugh, I'm a big fan... with a question ... do you see BTC similar to Raoul? As potentially the trade of a lifetime? Thanks.
    • HH
      Hugh H.
      21 November 2020 @ 02:24
      Oh, sorry guys. I'm not Hugh you think of. :)
  • MB
    Mark B.
    20 November 2020 @ 18:18
    Raoul, the best way to sell the merits of Bitcoin is not to jam it down peoples throats... Rather let them "buy" the merits of it for themselves... Afterall people have egos too and rather like to think it was all their idea and that they "bought" it rather than had it sold to them! Its like allowing your children to grow up, even though they arent yet adults, they think they are and if they are to be taken seriously by others then they have to walk on their own so as to become truly independent.... Where relentless parental "guidance" is both counter porductive and undermines the very outcome you wish to see Same applies to Bitcoin.... If it has all the merits you ascribe to it, they exist with or without Raoul pumping it remorselessly! RV needs to be careful not to sully its hard won reputation for independence, both real and intellectual, support the space, absolutely, but dont extol it unnaturally... Its a fine balance and a hard one to achieve, so I dont envy you the task, but vital nonetheless. All best wishes and thanks, (who wishes he had bought more Bitcoin lower, but stopped while he was still responsibly long!!!) Mark.
    • Dd
      David d.
      20 November 2020 @ 19:32
      It's the BEST Trade Raoul has ever seen. With BTC at 18k, Raoul's conviction is best conveyed by his repeatedly emphasizing the risk/reward opportunity for the small retail investor. I will be glad Raoul hit us over the head... when it doubles from here. ... and doubles again!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 November 2020 @ 20:34
      Thanks Mark. I agree with David d. I am passionate about it because I think its the best trade Ive ever seen and it is a truly important opportunity for people to make money.
    • MB
      Mark B.
      21 November 2020 @ 01:47
      David d & Raoul P, I hope I wasnt being obnoxious... and I dont doubt the sincerity of the intent / belief but as a trader of 39 years (God how old I am!) started on the floor aged 18 for me price is everything & however you look at it risk / reward changes with price. Not necessarily negatively... more info can counter-intuitively make a higher price proportionately less risky and increase future potential reward too, walking to the top of the hill brings into view a higher mountain previously hidden etc. Perhaps the best illustration of this is Apple. Saved from bankruptcy by Bill Gates inorder to protect MSFT from the risk of breakup due to monopoly operating software if Apple went bust! Bill G ended by saving a great competitor creating a company that remarkably became bigger than MSFT and the biggest in the world as it kept on revealing higher mountains after climbing each prior peak. So re BTC and in small part due to Raoul I do get it, infact only due to Raoul because the last time we conversed on these pages it was about Gold and I said that I would buy it on a fall and BTC too but that never came in BTC so I panicked myself in! (True FOMO!) though it has in Gold! (which has a bit further to fall!). My concern re BTC however is ironically due to its purity as a play.... Purity provides both its upside merit and its downside risk, and that is my concern because it isnt being adequately discussed.... I am happy to expand if your interested, but wont unless you are. Best, Mark.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    20 November 2020 @ 23:51
    I’m trying to figure out where the Bitcoin pullback of 30% will be. I see some pullback trying to go through 20K but once through not sure, 100K? ‘The force is strong in this one’.
  • SW
    Sarah W.
    20 November 2020 @ 20:55
    I am actually quite happy with my Bitcoin position and quite long enough ;-) Also, don’t count on 30-40% drawdowns this bull cycle, if the big institutional money is moving in. They will front run the dip to dampen it with a supply shortage. My guesstimate would be 5-15% drawdowns. Perhaps I’m wrong, but would explain why two recent dumps from $13.8ish and $16.4k were well absorbed with drawdowns less than 10%...
  • NR
    Nathaniel R.
    20 November 2020 @ 20:44
    maybe I should buy some Bit coins.
  • DE
    Daniel E.
    20 November 2020 @ 17:46
    Hey Raoul, thanks for this.. Totally wish I had heeded this advice in MORE VOLUME back when you first said it. Thankfully, I did buy a good chunk back when BTC was around $5k earlier this year. QUESTION: what would you consider to be a dip at this point? Either in order of magnitude, percentage, price, etc?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 November 2020 @ 20:35
      20%
  • DM
    David M.
    20 November 2020 @ 18:38
    The conclusion is toxic XD!! Good one. Thank you for the update Raoul. I have the smaller entry position in TLT via options as previously discussed, when would you be looking to add? The breakout of the shorter term trendline or wait until we break 170? Stay healthy out there all.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 November 2020 @ 20:33
      I think you can add on as confirmed break of the shorter term trend line
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    20 November 2020 @ 17:52
    Nice conclusion :) Concise
  • CH
    Charlie H.
    20 November 2020 @ 17:45
    Buy Bitcoin and go to the beach
  • RM
    Rohin M.
    20 November 2020 @ 17:33
    Merry Christmas everyone

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.