Winter Is Here

Published on: November 20th, 2020

Raoul has been discussing his winter of discontent thesis in recent months and takes a look at how it is all playing out.


  • HH
    Hugh H.
    20 November 2020 @ 17:09
    Haha, the conclusion was a good one.
    • HH
      Hugh H.
      21 November 2020 @ 02:24
      Oh, sorry guys. I'm not Hugh you think of. :)
    • Dd
      David d.
      20 November 2020 @ 19:33
      Hugh, I'm a big fan... with a question ... do you see BTC similar to Raoul? As potentially the trade of a lifetime? Thanks.
    • DE
      Daniel E.
      20 November 2020 @ 17:48
      Love your style, Hugh. Always enjoyable watching your interviews. Hope to run into you one day and buy you a drink!
  • RM
    Rohin M.
    20 November 2020 @ 17:33
    Merry Christmas everyone
  • CH
    Charlie H.
    20 November 2020 @ 17:45
    Buy Bitcoin and go to the beach
  • DE
    Daniel E.
    20 November 2020 @ 17:46
    Hey Raoul, thanks for this.. Totally wish I had heeded this advice in MORE VOLUME back when you first said it. Thankfully, I did buy a good chunk back when BTC was around $5k earlier this year. QUESTION: what would you consider to be a dip at this point? Either in order of magnitude, percentage, price, etc?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 November 2020 @ 20:35
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    20 November 2020 @ 17:52
    Nice conclusion :) Concise
  • MB
    Mark B.
    20 November 2020 @ 18:18
    Raoul, the best way to sell the merits of Bitcoin is not to jam it down peoples throats... Rather let them "buy" the merits of it for themselves... Afterall people have egos too and rather like to think it was all their idea and that they "bought" it rather than had it sold to them! Its like allowing your children to grow up, even though they arent yet adults, they think they are and if they are to be taken seriously by others then they have to walk on their own so as to become truly independent.... Where relentless parental "guidance" is both counter porductive and undermines the very outcome you wish to see Same applies to Bitcoin.... If it has all the merits you ascribe to it, they exist with or without Raoul pumping it remorselessly! RV needs to be careful not to sully its hard won reputation for independence, both real and intellectual, support the space, absolutely, but dont extol it unnaturally... Its a fine balance and a hard one to achieve, so I dont envy you the task, but vital nonetheless. All best wishes and thanks, (who wishes he had bought more Bitcoin lower, but stopped while he was still responsibly long!!!) Mark.
    • MB
      Mark B.
      21 November 2020 @ 01:47
      David d & Raoul P, I hope I wasnt being obnoxious... and I dont doubt the sincerity of the intent / belief but as a trader of 39 years (God how old I am!) started on the floor aged 18 for me price is everything & however you look at it risk / reward changes with price. Not necessarily negatively... more info can counter-intuitively make a higher price proportionately less risky and increase future potential reward too, walking to the top of the hill brings into view a higher mountain previously hidden etc. Perhaps the best illustration of this is Apple. Saved from bankruptcy by Bill Gates inorder to protect MSFT from the risk of breakup due to monopoly operating software if Apple went bust! Bill G ended by saving a great competitor creating a company that remarkably became bigger than MSFT and the biggest in the world as it kept on revealing higher mountains after climbing each prior peak. So re BTC and in small part due to Raoul I do get it, infact only due to Raoul because the last time we conversed on these pages it was about Gold and I said that I would buy it on a fall and BTC too but that never came in BTC so I panicked myself in! (True FOMO!) though it has in Gold! (which has a bit further to fall!). My concern re BTC however is ironically due to its purity as a play.... Purity provides both its upside merit and its downside risk, and that is my concern because it isnt being adequately discussed.... I am happy to expand if your interested, but wont unless you are. Best, Mark.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 November 2020 @ 20:34
      Thanks Mark. I agree with David d. I am passionate about it because I think its the best trade Ive ever seen and it is a truly important opportunity for people to make money.
    • Dd
      David d.
      20 November 2020 @ 19:32
      It's the BEST Trade Raoul has ever seen. With BTC at 18k, Raoul's conviction is best conveyed by his repeatedly emphasizing the risk/reward opportunity for the small retail investor. I will be glad Raoul hit us over the head... when it doubles from here. ... and doubles again!
  • DM
    David M.
    20 November 2020 @ 18:38
    The conclusion is toxic XD!! Good one. Thank you for the update Raoul. I have the smaller entry position in TLT via options as previously discussed, when would you be looking to add? The breakout of the shorter term trendline or wait until we break 170? Stay healthy out there all.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 November 2020 @ 20:33
      I think you can add on as confirmed break of the shorter term trend line
  • NI
    Nate I.
    20 November 2020 @ 19:10
    Interesting divergence with Hedgeye. It might just be time frames, but I would like to see you and Keith McCullough discuss this outlook. It would be epic for MI subscribers since there appears to be a substantial difference in outlook. Please. Pretty Please.
    • AH
      Andrew H.
      24 November 2020 @ 05:16
      From a few weeks back now. They do get into Bitcoin - Raoul gets Keith up to speed.
    • AL
      An L.
      21 November 2020 @ 06:40
      Given it is Keith, he will switch in a heartbeat
  • NR
    Nathaniel R.
    20 November 2020 @ 20:44
    maybe I should buy some Bit coins.
  • SW
    Sarah W.
    20 November 2020 @ 20:55
    I am actually quite happy with my Bitcoin position and quite long enough ;-) Also, don’t count on 30-40% drawdowns this bull cycle, if the big institutional money is moving in. They will front run the dip to dampen it with a supply shortage. My guesstimate would be 5-15% drawdowns. Perhaps I’m wrong, but would explain why two recent dumps from $13.8ish and $16.4k were well absorbed with drawdowns less than 10%...
  • JM
    Jake M.
    20 November 2020 @ 23:16
    Raoul, and others, is there any good video/article/report/book on realvision or elsewhere that you guys feel really goes deep and yet accessible to bring insight into understanding how QE vs Fiscal policy affect economics and financial assets? I believe both QE and FP share similar goal but they do have different effects. I am interested in learning the nuances more.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      2 December 2020 @ 14:42
      Personally I take the opposite view. Not because you are wrong - I agree with what you wrote. But because fiscal policy (financed by the Fed) is much more powerful in transmitting money into the economy. Its the difference between injecting intravenously and topically applying. By using fiscal policy, the money goes into the real economy before it enters the financial system. So it can act twice. Moreover, it actually supports normal commercial bank financing activity. Thats why Van Hoisington says that if we get money financed fiscal policy "all bets are off". And he is the biggest longest term UST bull.
    • JM
      Jake M.
      20 November 2020 @ 23:20
      My take is that is that QE by Fed is perhaps better than fiscal spending for bitcoin, because the former tends not to create inflation expectation in current environment where as the latter might and make interest rate more volatile so probably need more thought on risk management.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    20 November 2020 @ 23:51
    I’m trying to figure out where the Bitcoin pullback of 30% will be. I see some pullback trying to go through 20K but once through not sure, 100K? ‘The force is strong in this one’.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    21 November 2020 @ 00:07
    I can see bitcoin having a pullback at 20,000. But once it gets through 20,000 I can’t see 30% pullback except around a round number like 50,000 or 100,000. Anyone else?
    • JE
      Jonathan E.
      21 November 2020 @ 11:25
      Perhaps track what Alex Saunders (NuggetNews). To be honest though are technical charts really going to be that useful in this environment. Just buy on dips!
  • WS
    Wai S.
    22 November 2020 @ 10:19
    The speculative short position in bonds - is due to reflation expectation or more fiscal stimulus (treasury supply increase causing the yield up) expected to come?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 November 2020 @ 16:06
      Mainly reflation narrative as treasury supply is backstopped by the Fed.
  • EC
    Edward C.
    23 November 2020 @ 07:19
    The Conclusion is pure Gold, no pun intended!
  • JD
    Jesse D.
    23 November 2020 @ 19:25
    Generally, I'm pretty cynical about Wall St's taking points but the vaccine does seem promising and soon. And if that is reasonable, 6-12 months out could be pretty good, especially YOY. I think a lot of that is priced in except for energy, financials, etc. But would it not prudent to incorporate a vaccine into any investment decision?
  • EH
    Eric H.
    27 November 2020 @ 04:07
    Hello. I have read that gold has a high correlation to inflation. If this is true(?), if we are expecting deflation, why might we expect gold to hold or go up?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      2 December 2020 @ 14:38
      Cos policy makers will need to fight the deflation. If they dont, the outcomes are likely to be incredibly bad. Even if they are not proactive in fighting deflation but reactive, that will be enough to put a bid under gold. But a proactive attempt to reverse deflationary pressure is going to force a lot of "stores of value" higher.
  • BR
    Brian R.
    2 December 2020 @ 23:32
    We are in the process of starting another bull run that will end in an epic melt up. We have yellen and Powell that will light a fire under asset prices that will make Bernanke look austere. The rest of the year is priced. We have interest rates at zero and monetary policy folks that will blow this shit up.
    • BR
      Brian R.
      2 December 2020 @ 23:33
      *priced in.