You Are Not Alone

Published on: June 19th, 2019

It seems that it’s not all about the Fed, and the Europeans are going to start to ease monetary policy. Raoul digs into the implications and knock-on effects…

Comments

  • CS
    C S.
    20 June 2019 @ 22:18
    Raoul, is this not worth a flash update? https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1141719401810604033
    • KJ
      Keith J.
      21 June 2019 @ 12:05
      I found this a bit odd. The above article was published 2 days ahead of schedule to paying subscribers then a day later the author posts a contradictory remark on twitter. I have said before I’m not looking for trades to follow but it would help with accountability of the product if trades were tracked. It is easy to post both sides of a trade on twitter then you can take credit whatever happens. Kudos to Julian for his recent approach where explicit entry and exit levels have been posted (and worked well as things have played out).
    • RH
      Rob H.
      21 June 2019 @ 14:36
      I think that was his flash update. I think most if not all MI subscribers follow his twitter account, I know I do, and I also turn on mobile notifications for Raul and Julian. As this is the fastest way they can get info out to people.
    • JL
      J L.
      21 June 2019 @ 19:18
      Rob I do the same as you but this is not a cheap service, flash updates with an instant email alert really is really pretty basic and part of other much cheaper services. That said, from what I understand direct trading advice is not the main goal of Macro Insiders and everyone must decide if it is worth the money to them. It is odd because on one hand I feel the service is desgined for the man on the street (retirees or professionals with 500k+ who just want some savings advice), on the other hand the content often goes way beyond that in sophistication and is almost professional trader level. This in turn gives the impression that this type of info could be delivered more timely but that is not actually the goal of it all I think
    • TB
      Tim B.
      22 June 2019 @ 19:01
      @Rob H., Keith J., Raoul P. I understand that sometimes a thinker of markets can explore different perspectives of a situation, or that their stance on market dynamics can change. However, as a subscriber to a paid (and pricey) service, it would feel quite unfair if "flash updates" (or the equivalent) were done via twitter. (Unless discretion was used in the wording of the tweets.) I second that getting a "flash update" via an email or text is pretty easy to do, and at this price point should be included. If on the other hand, MI believes this is the best way to convey "flast updates", then that at least should be made clear to the subscribers. My two cents.
    • TB
      Tim B.
      22 June 2019 @ 19:04
      Edit: If MI believes that Twitter is the best way to convey "flash updates", then that at least should be made clear to the subscribers.
    • AM
      Alonso M.
      27 June 2019 @ 05:56
      My two cents on who MI is best suited for. I don't think it's necessarily targeting the retiree or professional who just wants some savings advice. I find that the analysis and topics being discussed in MI are a few months ahead of the sell side. This is where I've derived value from the service. I think if you've been getting your macro economic analysis from the sell side, you will see significant improvement in your investment process by adding MI as a service. However if you don't use macro analysis in your investment process and are instead relying on well timed trades to recoup the cost of your subscription, that's gonna be a hit and miss process.
  • JC
    Justin C.
    21 June 2019 @ 22:01
    That is going to create hugh social tensions in whole europe
  • RH
    Rob H.
    20 June 2019 @ 18:01
    In times like these, I like to refer to my favorite page in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. Their experience invariably matched mine, that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance. The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men is wall street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them they beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market, your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. "
    • HT
      Henry T.
      20 June 2019 @ 18:34
      Rob what do you recommend for your own PA...in light of recent developments
    • RH
      Rob H.
      21 June 2019 @ 15:02
      Hi Henry T. - In my PA, I'm long the EuroDollar options, and I took the spread trade Raoul suggested. It's a little overextended now, I will gladly add on pullbacks. Second largest position is Gold, to me, it has the best risk-reward at the current time, long multi-year base in place, and the 1350 - 1370 area resistance has been broken on huge volume. 2600 target over the next 3 year and it could get there a lot faster if the world gets scary in a hurry. FYI I also took the GDX trade Julian put out. Going great half way to his target of 30. Stay flexible, keep it simple, and watch the 20 50 200 MA. If you are longer term stick to the weekly chart, any break of the 50 Week MA on gold get out.
  • LD
    Lance D.
    20 June 2019 @ 20:48
    ok so do i have this correct if the fed are thinking about rate cuts does this mean they stop with shrinking the balance sheet ?
  • HT
    Henry T.
    20 June 2019 @ 05:25
    Hey guys, Maybe some of you can help here. Central banks signalling of rate cuts looks to me like an admission that recession is near... I admit bonds is good. But at current level it is difficult to enter new long as the bulk of the move might have been made already. Question is: Does it mean growth stocks - NASDAQ - is nearing the high? Or does it mean they will be a blown off top first? Historically when fed signals a cut, dollar usually drop first before rising again due to looming recession. Do anyone have an opinion on this?
    • RH
      Rob H.
      20 June 2019 @ 14:59
      Well if you're a wave rider like Paul Tutor Jones, His playbook for the first rate cut is as follows. Long Stock - Initially - yet seems like a harder trade here at all-time highs. SPX QQQ etc. Long Fixed income - Front end of the curve as Rauol states Long Gold Short US Dollar - I'm watching the 200MA - We double tapped the 200ma in June and still making higher lows. All bets are off on long dollar if we break and confirm lower trade.
  • MW
    Marco W.
    20 June 2019 @ 07:20
    My 2 cents here. It is the asset market (stock market in US and property market in China, Hong Kong, Australia, Canada) that count, not the economy. Asset market related incomes such as capital gains, dividend/rental (for those not working but not counted as unemployed), stock options and so on play overwhelming role in consumption. Salary cannot keep pace with living expense for a lot of people anyway. Economic data such as personal income, unemployment, consumer confidence are distorted or driven by asset market. Since there is more than 10% drop in stock and property market in the past year, rate cuts are essential but not sufficient condition for holding up the market. In view of the relative importance of asset market in each economy, USD, CNY, HKD, AUD, CAD could be weak against others.
  • B
    Bob .
    20 June 2019 @ 04:44
    Sounds to me like the Euro's slide is yet another tailwind for the USD. I wonder as USD soars can gold move up with it?
  • RH
    Rob H.
    20 June 2019 @ 03:39
    With gold moving higher and finally breaking long term resistance, would you advocate it as a good way to trade dollar strength? You mentioned this in your conversation with Julian since he said it was hard to play the dollar bull case. I think you said long gold short copper. I ask because it sounded like you were kicking the idea around but not ready to pull the trigger. I took Julian’s GDX trade it’s going very well, looking for places to add now. I’m new to MI, I would have to say my best investments this year. I like your writing style, clean and clear.
  • JK
    James K.
    20 June 2019 @ 03:08
    Thx Raoul....shouldn’t this scenario also be positive for gold/silver metals/miners ... ? Thx. Jim-
  • BC
    Brent C.
    19 June 2019 @ 18:27
    Raoul, interestingly, I believe you could be make the case for large cap, defensive euro equity positions via the same analysis - ex-fins clearly. Extraordinary monetary policy will clearly be needed there first. If big money senses that could be close, you could potentially see money stepping in to some of those names. The underperformance of many of those vs US counterparts is pretty astonishing as well.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 June 2019 @ 00:28
      I try to keep things really simple in times like this. Currently, its being long bonds (maybe the best trade in the world) and long some dollar calls (still not working but not going down either)..

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.