Insider Talks – April 2018

Published on
April 5th, 2018
Duration
33 minutes

Insider Talks – April 2018

Featuring

Published on: April 5th, 2018 • Duration: 33 minutes

Raoul and Julian jump right into all the recent market action and distill it all down to the few most important factors they see. From tech giants to inflation and liquidity, they look at the overall picture and assess, which domino will fall first and what would be the unintended consequences. Filmed on 30 Mar.

Comments

  • KA
    Kelly A.
    7 April 2018 @ 18:21
    Am I the only one who is suspicious that Trump is purposely causing the market to tank so his friends and family can make a ton shorting? ...and then a reversal??
    • CS
      C S.
      8 April 2018 @ 07:23
      I suspect so
    • JM
      Jim M.
      8 April 2018 @ 18:56
      With all respect this is silly.
    • WM
      Will M.
      14 April 2018 @ 17:46
      If I were you I would be more worried about the Fed raising rates and crashing the market.........
    • CM
      Carl M.
      20 April 2018 @ 00:32
      I have not seen anything from Trump's camp that would suggest a level of strategy or gamesmanship that could ascend to such heights.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    16 April 2018 @ 13:03
    Hey Guys, I"m hearing some chatter that the FED is going to announce early as May 1st, a CryptoCurrency, so rt of an India style new age of digital money, placing Cash in a risky position and a hunt for more taxes. Cash held by citizens could be at major risk. Can you please respond to this chatter and any notion of this in the future? Great Video---thx!
    • RF
      Richard F.
      19 April 2018 @ 17:58
      Hi Sam. Do you mind telling us where we can learn more on this subject. Back last summer Doug Casey was talking about something called FedCoin. But no time line was attached to it.
  • WM
    Will M.
    14 April 2018 @ 18:21
    Great discussion. Lets hope there are some profits coming.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    5 April 2018 @ 22:28
    A sharp US $ spike and EM exaggerated breakdown will set up a nice entry point for me to EM (for a long term hold). My concern is about my substantial long term Gold and Miners position which I have (rightly or wrongly) held through multiple sell offs—just don’t see how they can hold up through a violent US $ spike or an exaggerated spike in Rates. Is their any moderate probability that the PMs won’t crack under either of these two scenarios (especially the sharp jump in the US $)?—I’m truly worried that I well might “crack” and sell at the worst possible time and will certainly be an emotional mess during the process. I’m posting this because others may be in this position as well and, although I subscribe to ALL the RV products, I haven’t seen this issue addressed head on.
    • CS
      C S.
      7 April 2018 @ 06:51
      One option is to hold as much physical gold as you are comfortable with and use other paper vehicles for your speculations. Treat it as long term savings/forget about it (money you wont need for a long while).
    • NI
      Nate I.
      13 April 2018 @ 03:00
      Gold is just a currency, albeit the best one. One ounce still buys exactly the same quantity of hot dogs in 2018 that it did in 1918. All other currencies move relative to gold and not the other way around. Gold just sits there watching from the sidelines.
    • WM
      Will M.
      14 April 2018 @ 17:43
      Agree with comments above and sympathize. The opportunity in gold is to catch the first few years of a burst up then take profits. Don't need to get in a bottom but bottom 25% of price range would suit me. I am watching closely now as gold and silver are so close to breakout or breakdown.
  • JJ
    Josh J.
    5 April 2018 @ 22:46
    @Raoul @Julian, how would you recommend to put on a long volatility position (which instrument and timing for trade execution?) Thanks.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      13 April 2018 @ 18:52
      Namit long vol trades are hard even for institutional traders and the VIX is a horrible vehicle. Hence, we'd typically prefer suggesting puts on equities or even ETFs that enable you to go short.
  • TJ
    Tay J.
    11 April 2018 @ 09:46
    Hey Guys -- These VIDEO discusssions would be 10x more effective if you SHOWED us the charts you are talking about while you talk about them, e.g. GS financial conditions index, GOOG, AMZN, etc. Thanks.
    • MG
      Miguel G.
      12 April 2018 @ 10:51
      They do throughout the month when they type out their macro work.
    • FM
      Fraser M.
      12 April 2018 @ 11:33
      I agree 100% with Tay J. - I would especially like to see a VXN/VIX spread chart with an overlay of the Nasdaq (and separately S&P500) illustrating the leading nature of the 6.5-7.0 points difference threshold referred to. I can't see this relationship when I do the analysis myself.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      13 April 2018 @ 18:20
      Guys we are working on a way of being able to share charts on a more interactive way. Shouldn't be long now
  • JM
    James M.
    13 April 2018 @ 12:54
    I guess £1700 a year doesn't get you an answer to a direct question? 4 questions on this comment thread. No reply as has been the case since the platform started!
  • NH
    Neil H.
    6 April 2018 @ 18:55
    excellent as always. I think getting the dollar call right is most important in this environment. Waiting to see if in fact the dollar starts to move up how all other assets will play out.
  • ag
    anthony g.
    6 April 2018 @ 14:47
    good one - a few to many balloons in the air although maybe that is just what it is right now. Would it be possible to do a short review at end to show main points of discussion ? I note RV does this from time to time and it is very helpful at the end to read or bring together a large number of diverse points.
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    6 April 2018 @ 10:28
    Im in complete agreement with your thoughts on the dollar, but I think understanding the time frame of when we should expect this dis inflationary wave to hit markets is VERY IMPORTANT. Im with Julian as I think we are about to get a nice uptick in inflation in Q2 which could give oil and other commodities that final move higher this quarter before that big crowded long position in oil becomes unwound. As we all know being right in the market isn't good enough as timing is just as important. If we are to express a bearish view on oil and commodities in general I think we need to footnote the timing of this trade as well. I happen to be in Julian's camp that fighting oil today is probably to early with this inflation wave getting ready to set in. I think oil short makes A LOT more sense in the Q3 which should also be confirmed with that confirmation break out in the dollar.
  • SR
    Steve R.
    6 April 2018 @ 00:08
    With a ratcheting up of the trade war between the US and China, how would this affect current thinking?
  • KM
    Ken M.
    5 April 2018 @ 22:19
    Excellent content and commentary, thank you.
  • JJ
    Josh J.
    5 April 2018 @ 20:09
    The video keeps loading for me every 2 minutes. Just wanted to make sure if its my network bandwidth or RV server issue.
    • RA
      Robert A.
      5 April 2018 @ 22:14
      Yes, keeps stutter stepping and looping. Had to reload it 3 times.
  • JM
    James M.
    5 April 2018 @ 18:30
    Raoul you said here on MI and in your last RVTV vid that you think if oil breaks down or USD breaks up then it could be a very aggressive move due to market positioning. You also stated in the last RVTV that you saw other commodities iron,copper and even gold react lower. You and Julian have said in the past that gold and USD can move up together due to the ultimate risk off move. Do you still think gold moves up with the USD in risk off or do you think gold goes lower with other coms and EM if USD rallies? Also are you and Julian surprised how little gold has moved up considering the USD move lower or does this coincide with your earlier ideology that they move closer together than previously generally in history? PS dont you think soft comms are crazy low just now and a buy here i,m thinking AIGA or is there a better way to play them Cheers.