Reflation Rally or Market Bubble? The Yield Curve Will Show the Way

Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to explore whether particular assets are in a “bubble,” sharing her views on equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies. Alden argues that the drastic expansion of the monetary base will inevitably find its way into financial assets, if not the real economy. Reflation will boost cyclical value stocks, particularly energy and financials. If inflation triggers a sell-off on the long end of the yield curve, causing it to steepen, banks in particular will benefit. If the Federal Reserve enacts yield curve control, however, then this is environment is most favorable for precious metals. Filmed on February 8, 2021.

Key learnings: Pockets of opportunity exist in cyclical value equities such as financials and energy. How lucrative these opportunities are will depend on the long-end of the yield curve. Alden is constructive on emerging markets and thinks that Asian technology equities are favorable. Alden contends that since the move to digital assets is a strong secular force, Bitcoin and Ethereum are most likely not in a bubble on a long-term time horizon. Her faith in altcoins is less certain as they are more speculative.

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