Comment made that it doesn't matter that restaurants are open at x% because people aren't going. Mobility data suggests otherwise.

Max, as usual, did a great job. He is the best and should be the regular moderator.

Ed ..You have to be a little more honest ... Pelosi ...yes 3 Trillion. Mitch McConnell 500 billion (not zero) Those numbers are out there and the GOP has never said zero..... C'mon Ed...

Ed, no harm in talking about positions you could take to express your view. Even if it's all wrong and it tanks completely, no one is going to shoot you as long as the ideas are well thought out (which they always are cause you are a clever cookie). So loosen up man, it's ok! :D

Assuming vaccines are coming in December: How many people in the world will be vaccinated by June? Can someone give a projection?

I recall a RV video where Michael Green discussed the herd mentality as the final solution to CV-19. The purpose of the original shut down was to prevent overwhelming our hospitals with CV-19 patients. Originally, people thought CV-19 was certain death; now we have a much better understanding and treatments which explains young people defying government shut down orders. Even hypocritical politicians defy such orders! The mortality rate of CV-19 is extremely low especially for younger people. After the original shut down, cases of CV-19 did decline but the virus was not eliminated and nor will if be eliminated by shut downs. Frankly, the government will not be able to "stimulate" our economy to make up for the trillions lost, the number of suicides and overall destruction of our economy. I find Ed's discussion naive at best.

One thing that I've noticed with all media is that we are entirely consumed with the Covid-19 related effects on the economy. There has been very little commentary surrounding the reality that we were seeing significant signs economic slowdown this time last year (pre Covid). Maybe I'm missing something obvious but it doesn't feel like the excesses of the past 10 years were unwound. Have governments papered over all of the weakness that we typically find peak cycle? I don't see clean balance sheets despite the pain... so assuming the vaccine is mass produced and highly effective, do we not just return to the economic conditions of Late 2019 but with 10% unemployment?

Ed is so yesterday with his billions.

Always want to hear from Max. Great insights.

Pulling back for a 35,000 foot view. Vaccines My sources with FEMA have pointed out the following. 1) Efficacy of all 3 is unknown...none have been peer reviewed by scientific community and still have to be approved by FDA. What we've seen so far are PR releases and AZN is under fire for its work. 2) Distribution issues in handling and sufficient quantities in an acceptable time frame to achieve herd immunity Another source, mayor in small MW county seat spoke with the governor...expect vaccine to arrive Q3 at county level...that's July 1. Time to innoculate the population and develop immunity? Anti-vaxers? 3) Side effects/possible virus mutation Bottomline: I think the market looked at this past March as a one time event and with the heavy Fed/Congressional aid, thinks it's over. So this, in itself, may not cause a sell off but definitely driving with emergency brake on. And with the US health system nearing catastrophic failure, e.g. insufficient numbers to deal with waves, other illness/conditions untreated, long term demand on resources...got an elephant in the back seat. Economic impact In turn, I agree with Ed...some businesses will just say the hell with it, I'm done and toss the keys to the landlord. I believe Brian Livingston, Muscular Portfolios, did some work to determine that 8 deaths per million per day is the tipping point for either voluntary or involuntary action to dramatically reduce mobility/economic activity or quarantine. US population is 328 million so about 2600 deaths per day; one can model by state to determine more specifically, assuming accurate data as to cause of death is available. Fiscal/monetary response Cutting rates is not going to help the local pizza shop. And the banks aren't lending anyway. M2 velocity is decelerating rapidly...see FRED report on M2 from St Louis Fed. Hence JaPo's constant ask for fiscal policy; monetary policy bought some time which IMO was squandered. Dusting off Samuelson's Economics, fiscal policy would have greater, longer lasting impact such an infrastructure bill with a jobs multiplier effect....but it takes longer for it to take hold and that opportunity was blown after the 2018 midterms. Any stimulus bill is papering over the canyon again, not to say something shouldn't be done but the patient (economy) is not going to jump off the operating table and run the 100 yd dash. It appears speculation has taken hold of a bipolar market, value/growth, small cap/large cap, risk on/risk off, lock down/open up issues with rapid rotation on "news" and the belief that the event is over when it was really just the end of the second act, hope, per Raoul. But knowing when to jump from the train as it starts down a long, shallow grade might be a skill worth knowing...;)

I realize I am not always the most positive commenter because I only feel compelled to comment when I really dislike a video. As such I need to take this moment to reiterate my sentiment about most Daily Briefings and Real Vision videos - this was excellent. Poised, coherent... presented with confidence by Max as always - clear, sharp and easy to listen to. A solid analysis from Ed Harrison. Ed's analyses blow my mind some days in terms of changing the way I have been thinking in a major way when he really gets on a roll. Today was 8 of 10 on the Ed scale - good considering the news is somewhat similar to that in days preceding. A 10/10 Ed breakdown at an economic turning point is something special to witness.

Max and Jack killin it

Please have Ivor Cummins on to talk about analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 / COVID data. Always interested in your economic analysis, but with all due respect, you guys don’t have a clue about the health data, and are just repeating the common narrative, or that parroted by epidemiologists who do not understand either virology or PCR testing. Cheers.

Terrific briefing gentlemen! Thank you and Happy Thanksgiving!!!

If Senator McConnell controls the Senate he will implement a scorched earth policy again. Do not fall for the headfake that he will work with President Biden. The successful attempt to lock pandemic funds shows the Senate races in Georgia will determine whether the pandemic can be addressed or used as a political bargaining chip. This is in direct opposite to compassionate conservatism. President Reagan would not fire everyone and hold up pandemic funds to businesses and citizens at any time. DLS

Ash and Ed are epic on-air talents, with astounding depth and breadth. However, Max and Jack have really stepped up lately. It's great to see them getting more prime-time opportunities, consistently rising to the occasion, and really nailing it. The RV bench is becoming super impressive. Great job all around.

Mark this down as one of the best RV DBs of 2020 as well. Hollywood and Max did very well this week. Great stuff.

Any chance of getting Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on the show, maybe with Roger?

Video get's a like for Max's 'shirt is for the turkey's' comment early on. Thanks again gents! Insightful and helpful dialogue as always.

Great data from Ed today! One observation, especially with respect to PMI and lockdowns. There's correlation, causation and coincidence. Ed makes a point of that subtly about NY restaurant occupancy. My view (which could be wrong) is that early lockdowns simply act as a dampener. That is to say, the same behavior would eventually occur with or without lockdowns based on human behavior. We'll see when hospitals hit capacity. Second observation (which also could be wrong): Regarding Mnuchin putting the money back in the TGA. This is a bit of a head scratcher. The debt ceiling is currently suspended, which has allowed Mnuchin to already grow the TGA to a peak of $1.8T (now ~$1.55T)even though there was nothing to spend that money on. He basically just printed pristine collateral in the form of T-Bills. Putting another $400B+ in that account is a journal entry. That is to say, the TGA is simply the government's bank account. The Treasury needs congress to authorize spending from it. The bigger issue is the following: The Treasury has a surplus in its account. That means it could just spend it down on things authorized by congress w/o issuing more treasuries. But that has the potential to suck a ton of collateral out of the system that Mnuchin "snuck" in there while the debt ceiling was suspended. If the TGA gets bled down, it's going to suck a bunch collateral out of the system. From a practical standpoint, we need at least a $1.5T stimulus package to keep collateral neutral (or suspend the debt ceiling again).

It's been nice having a variety of thoughts and personalities on the Daily Briefing, lately. Great job, everyone.

Great one today again, thanks RV team. Haley’s recap is a great kickoff to each RVDB.

Max, nice use of the word autumnal!

Max, nice use of the word autumnal!