A Bad Winter For The Global Economy (LIVE)

Published on
November 20th, 2020
Duration
62 minutes


A Bad Winter For The Global Economy (LIVE)

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Ed Harrison and Raoul Pal

Published on: November 20th, 2020 • Duration: 62 minutes

Tune in for this special edition of the Daily Briefing to hear from Ed and Raoul live at 4:30 PM ET. Raoul will provide an update on his macro thesis, trades he's bullish on, and answer questions from the audience.

Comments

Transcript

  • RS
    Robert S.
    25 November 2020 @ 00:23
    It’s a fracking flu, not more not less!
  • GR
    George R.
    24 November 2020 @ 16:44
    It's weird Raoul just feels like everything normal in the streets and in restaurants. People have been getting the virus around me but don't have any symptoms then 14 days later sometimes earlier they have a negative test. It almost feels like everything is back up. I was buying coffee every day throughout the pandemic and gauged traffic on streets and at food spots, it almost feels like its actually more crowded now. Do you think it's because your out of the country that you're viewing it this way? Everyone is wearing masks but people are out shopping and spending.
  • DG
    David G.
    24 November 2020 @ 08:52
    I'm Listening to everyone, but only shooting at what I can see. TLT is starting to tip its hand to the upside. When world equities pull back a bit, I'm trading the dips on Asian market ETF's. Not going to get too cute. I hope weak handed miners and gold holders give up the ghost and we get a sharper dip. It seems we are definitely going to rhyme this winter. Keep your head low and your finger on the trigger! lend money, buy gold, and go east. TLT, GLD/SLV/GDX, EWT/ETY/EWJ.
  • MH
    Martin H.
    23 November 2020 @ 00:50
    Are you guy's listening to Sidney Powell? Biden isn't a slam dunk if half of what she says she can prove is true.
    • JL
      J L.
      23 November 2020 @ 02:53
      Why would anyone listen to Sidney Powell? Not even Rudy Giuliani is listening to Sidney Powell -- he fired her from the "team."
    • JJ
      Johnathan J.
      23 November 2020 @ 18:05
      Giuliani distancing himself from Powell was a nail in the coffin for me. How can they go from standing side by side in a press conference to disavowing in a day?
    • LF
      Liam F.
      24 November 2020 @ 00:25
      Trump's done. Get over it and move on.
    • DG
      David G.
      24 November 2020 @ 08:12
      Trump will raise Epstein from the dead and together they will slay the Democratic pedophile scum and send them straight Hell!!!!! QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ!!!!!!!!! IT IS WRITTEN!!!!!!!
  • JD
    John D.
    24 November 2020 @ 04:42
    I don't believe that covid is anything to fear at this stage. Death rate is lower relatively than the swine flu. We have 3 vaccines now, with millions of free doses nearing rapid distribution.
    • DG
      David G.
      24 November 2020 @ 08:06
      it doesn't matter what you or any individual thinks, respectfully. It matters what everyone thinks. The charts show that they are taking precautions. I'm not lining up for a vaccine so I can pay $100+ to eat out. I only do it to be social. I honestly would rather watch RV. The the vaccine doesn't help the infected and the soon to be infected over the holiday season. Health care workers and first responders are getting the first batch of vaccines anyway. Deaths are about a 22 day lag from infection. There are people in the USA who will die on Christmas, after being infected on Thanksgiving. Swine flu isn't has contagious. The Flu is spread through droplets. COVID-19 is and has always been airborne despite the US COVID task force saying you don't need an N95 mask last March. I knew they were lying the second they said it. I don't care about deaths vs. infections, it's projected to top 3,000 deaths a day at the peak this winter. Furthermore, because it's so contagious I have to look at it like, if I get infected i might cause a family member or two to die, even if I don't. I wouldn't want that on my conscience for the rest of my life.
  • JD
    John D.
    24 November 2020 @ 07:31
    Whoa, the vechain question. There are a lot of noobs here. Which is fine. But please, don't invest! Educate yourself.
  • SH
    STEVE H.
    23 November 2020 @ 15:58
    I can't sign up for 'Aftermath'. You have Dan Rather, who was the fired for his Fake News stories. This is the huge problem we face in losing faith in the media.
    • JJ
      Johnathan J.
      23 November 2020 @ 18:03
      I'm no fan of Dan Rather, but I'm willing to hear his perspective. Don't let one unappealing speaker distract you from the otherwise stellar lineup.
  • TH
    Timo H.
    21 November 2020 @ 16:35
    Re: black swan capable of derailing bitcoin. The correct answer is probably the same as what created it. Innovation. My view is, that the entire crypto domain will experience a complete overhaul in the next few years. The role of coins and tokens will be re-evaluated and probably reduced in that process. The role of digital trust between persons (both legal and natural) wlll be significantly bigger than currently. The biggest loser probably is Ethereum as it has its trust model, scalability model and governance model all wrong for what it is intended for. The role of bitcoin will get clearer but possibly also narrower. My best guess is, that it will be used mostly as digital collateral in fully decentralized financial processes. In that role, it has some clear advantages, but when that role becomes more in demand, there will also be competition arising both from other "pure crypto" assets as well as from digitized real world assets. Betting against innovation in this process is just plain stupid. Even the disruptors can get disrupted.
    • JL
      J L.
      21 November 2020 @ 18:11
      The idea that innovation will hurt Bitcoin falls short on multiple fronts. First, Bitcoin itself is at the centerpiece of an innovation revolution. There are brilliant minds all around the world enhancing the value of Bitcoin itself, not some other asset, by building out support infrastructure and payment rail innovation around BTC. So you can't say BTC as an entity is standing still on the innovation front. It has as much collective innovation firepower via the BTC company as, say, Google or Amazon. Second, the power of lock-in and network effects is just as impressive as the power of innovation in terms of incumbent resilience when the incumbent is dynamic. Who or what will replace Google at this point, or Airbnb? How do you replace a global network with millions of nodal points, resting on physical infrastructure and human connections that would be impossible to replace from scratch without taking years? Third, compound advantage. Bitcoin has a ten-year transaction history at this point. Any other asset attempting to compete as a global consensus store of value would be starting with a transaction history of zero. The ten-year global consensus track record is, in one sense, one of Bitcoin's biggest features. Nothing has ever seen a coalesced formation of global consensus like this. How would that be replaced or even challenged? Just offering some new innovation won't cut it, because as mentioned, BTC itself is at the heart of an innovation paradigm around the payment and distribution process. The outlook for Ethereum is much more of an unknown, because ETH wants to be a kind of world computer that relies on features and capabilities that haven't been fully fleshed out yet. But Bitcoin already fulfills its use case (global consensus store of value) with 100% fidelity. If you separate the store of value use case from innovation in the payments layer, you can see that the core (store of value use case) rests on the inertia provided by global consensus, and the payment and distribution innovation can happen around that. As such, the social aspects of Bitcoin and the 10-year history are like a combination network effect, social phenomenon and incumbent edge. Imagine trying to replace the English language, or trying to replace a spoon. If billions of people are already opted in, and you can innovate on top of a core layer that works, how would you do that? You wouldn't. It's possible that some unknown Black Swan exists. But in line with Taleb's original concept, it won't be something we can guess at, and certainly not something as plain vanilla as innovation. The innovation curve deeply favors Bitcoin, again because of the combination of stable core (store of value use case, which does not require technology upgrades) and social phenomenon network effects (ten-year start equals massive incumbent advantage) and innovative payments layer packaging (user communities and corporate entities all around the world adopting to, and building out, a Bitcoin use-and-distribution architecture).
    • RA
      Robert A.
      23 November 2020 @ 04:31
      Timo & JL, I very much enjoyed reading your opposing positions. Thoughtful well reasoned arguments presented in a tasteful manner. You are why I enjoy the RV comments section and would rate your thoughtful interchange as one of the best of 2020.
  • MH
    Martin H.
    23 November 2020 @ 01:56
    The bullion banks are defending positions ahead of what looks to be a huge December delivery. Look @ the Comex. Gold will rise in December if the delivery trend continues as it has this year.
  • pp
    peng p.
    22 November 2020 @ 08:26
    I respect Raul a lot, subscribe to realvision around March. Was influenced by him, and miss the whole bull market. While he makes lots of sense, but getting the market right is more important. I think he should find out what went wrong with his prediction from March, and check if he is still making the same mistakes. A lot of subscribers believe and trust him.
    • JK
      John K.
      22 November 2020 @ 23:01
      Which "Bull Market" did you miss? His Bitcoin recommendation outperformed the stock market.
  • FL
    Fabrizio L.
    22 November 2020 @ 15:28
    Value VS Growth? - this is such nonsense! There are no such thing as growth or value stocks. I think owning stock in a company is owning a piece of its capital structure and in some cases a title to a cashflow. Growth or value describe investor expectations, not the characteristic of the investment. As always its a clever invention of WS to keep you in the game. Rotation? rotation of expectations not of anything else! what is a growth stock at the beginning of a bear market? how do we call it? We should be a bit smarter ED when we use this standard WS jargon. this is how people end up believing it!
  • JF
    Jess F.
    21 November 2020 @ 11:30
    Don't ignore the fact that CB's own gold, a lot of it. They do not own Bitcoin. Eventually they will tip the scales to `gold's, and their, benefit.
    • TH
      Timo H.
      22 November 2020 @ 09:56
      This fact gets ignored by lots of folks. When the banking system needs to be reset, gold very probably is part of that operation, in one way or another. It is worth remembering, that gold is now a tier 1 -asset according to the Basel rules. There's a reason for that. Maybe central banks will capitalize the banks by revaluing gold and then allowing commercial banks to exchange their reserves to gold? Bitcoin and other digital assets created outside the banking system will for sure have no role in the reset of the existing financial system. That's a good thing. Their role is probably as that of a collateral for backing the nodes of a completely new banking network based on the idea of de-central banking. Understanding, what that means requires quite a bit of unlearning, even and especially from the bitcoiners, who try to model bitcoin as the new central bank. Bitcoin is not money but an asset potentially backing a new kind of money, just like gold is not money, but an asset backing an existing kind of money (in case of an emergency). The new kind of money probably has not been invented yet. I'm quite sure that the "layer 2 money" built on top of bitcoin network will not be such money.
    • JL
      J L.
      22 November 2020 @ 15:27
      CBs have recently been net sellers of gold to raise cash for pandemic-related expenses, which is part of the reason precious metals have been weak.
  • GH
    Galen H.
    22 November 2020 @ 14:20
    When the USD weakens, and it will at some point, Africa and India are going to do very well for a long time. The tech innovation in Africa is becoming quite something. The payments systems, for one, are close to if not ahead of some developed markets. Corruption still a massive problem though. Some of those governments can wipe out your gains and capital on a Sunday afternoon while you sipping a G&T.
  • PH
    Petter H.
    22 November 2020 @ 12:10
    Raoul, I am really into your striped shirts.
  • RC
    Ron C.
    22 November 2020 @ 05:54
    Testing - I can’t see comments in the app
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    21 November 2020 @ 22:35
    Raoul says "The PPP loans did not work" That is a false statement and made by a person who doesn't live in the U.S. and just as bad, no push back from Ed. Again, a lot of people seem to think these guys always know what they are talking about, and nothing can be further from the truth. A proper statement would have been "The PPP loans seemed to have limited impact". The PPP loans absolutely helped my small business, my employees as well as other friends small businesses. Actual knowledge on the ground based on hard data instead of parroting narratives of main stream media would be much appreciated.
    • vf
      victor f.
      22 November 2020 @ 03:12
      That's one example. On the whole, was the program 10% successful? 20%? 50%. It was a national program - one instance does not a success make.
    • JG
      Joshua G.
      22 November 2020 @ 05:50
      I received the PPP loan as well, gave some much needed breathing room financially as revenues have been down all year.
  • MW
    Matthew W.
    21 November 2020 @ 22:32
    Great show thanks guys. Can someone find out where Raoul got that t-shirt please?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 November 2020 @ 22:47
      Scotch and Soda
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    21 November 2020 @ 22:43
    North Dakota has now restricted restaurants and added mask restrictions... As if North Dakota drives the nation's economy. Come on....
  • DS
    David S.
    21 November 2020 @ 21:43
    The only way banks will make poor credit loans is if the government guarantees the loans like the new mortgages in the UK. This will end up in taxpayers' bailing out all the bad loans. Give money to everyone under a certain income level. They will go to Ed's Restaurant creating revenue. If the tax payers are going to bail out the system, at least give them the money to keep the economy going directly. DLS
  • KR
    Kevin R.
    21 November 2020 @ 20:46
    Harry Dent says commodities will be falling over the next 2 years including gold -that's why gold has been doing so badly - timing your trades correctly is everything.
  • DC
    Dave C.
    21 November 2020 @ 18:21
    You guys are awesome!
  • RB
    Richard B.
    21 November 2020 @ 03:26
    China mines 50% bitcoin is this a risk ?
    • PB
      Paolo B.
      21 November 2020 @ 06:20
      I thought BTC and all non sovereign crypto were forbidden in China and if you have some you can exchange it just locally?
    • jn
      jordan n.
      21 November 2020 @ 08:03
      Yes, i am surprised the development in China was not asked on the call. Would be great to get some perspective on this.
    • JF
      Jean F.
      21 November 2020 @ 09:02
      There was an interesting article in Asia Times this week that said in fact 70% of mining is done in China, and that China is cracking down on miners. That crackdown means miners can no longer convert their Bitcoins for cash. It's conceivable therefore that the resulting lack of supply is the key driver behind Bitcoin's recent rise - and not more prosaic aspects of shifts in asset allocation / adoption by institutional investors. Ultimately though, what happens to the price of Bitcoin if it no longer has an off-ramp to fiat and can't be used for transactions? Some are already calling out that risk. Jim Rogers spoke just this past week about the inevitable #Bitcoin conversion and transaction ban: “Governments don’t want to give up their monopoly money, they love the power and the control, and that’s one of the things that gives them the most control”. Against that backdrop, the PBOC may have fired the first salvo in what is likely to become a coordinated attack by CBs on Bitcoin and other "decentralized" coins. Not something most Bitcoin proponents want to even think about, but the strategic importance to governments of control over monetary policy is very badly underestimated. They will defend their monopoly tooth and nail, and cryptos not sponsored by CBs will not be allowed to reach critical mass. I leave you with this comment by German FINMIN Scholz this week: “I do not support private-sector digital currencies."
    • PB
      Paolo B.
      21 November 2020 @ 14:14
      Indeed as Jean said. I have some thoughts about ban from countries that will try to post on the exchange Germany Finance Minister is particularly worrisome development. Clearly they see crypto able to affect their ability to implement their policies.
    • GT
      Gene T.
      21 November 2020 @ 17:32
      RE: Governments banning Bitcoin Bitcoin is not a currency, it's an asset. Sure governments can ban anything they want, but you have to ask how citizens buying an asset with USD, Euros, Yen, or Yuan are a threat to those governments. China wants to prevent capital from leaving the Chinese economy, so they put all kinds of controls in place (of which Bitcoin is a tiny fraction of the capital). But what threat does Bitcoin pose to the United States or European governments NOW? Essentially none. It's a tiny asset class compared to stocks, bonds, or even precious metals - TINY. There may come a day when Bitcoin's market cap. rises to a level that forces Western governments to take notice, but that is a long way from here.
  • DS
    Dan S.
    21 November 2020 @ 08:33
    Surprised at Raoul saying - wait for a 20% pullback in BTC to add! If we pass the old all-time high, I think we might never have another chance to buy sub-$20k.
    • GT
      Gene T.
      21 November 2020 @ 16:52
      Raoul doesn't want a bunch of FOMO newbies getting scalped on his recommendation; sure it could go straight to 100k, but it's not likely. There's bound to be some >20% pullbacks along the way.
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    21 November 2020 @ 14:11
    One silly question. Whoever can answer please do. Who is it that as Raul says with more stimulus from the FED the dollar will rise. Isn't it that the more of something the less scarce it becomes so the lower its price- purchasing power...simplistically.?
    • JL
      J L.
      21 November 2020 @ 15:33
      There is nothing simple about cause-and-effect relationships in the context of complex adaptive systems, because there are always too many variables and crosscurrents running in parallel. For example, stimulus might encourage an economic recovery, which powers an investment boom and draws in more global capital. Or alternatively, stimulus might lead to a sell-off in the bond market and a rise in long-term interest rates that slows the recovery. With macroeconomic theory in general there are very few one-way answers. When a central bank raises interest rates, for example, that can either be bearish or bullish for the currency depending on whether the higher yield is expected to attract more capital flows or whether the resulting economic slowdown will reverse investment flows. TL;DR when it comes to macro, if you seek a simple answer you will typically be disappointed or misled. Usually you have to be aware of multiple competing variables before you can process the full picture.
  • RF
    Ricky F.
    21 November 2020 @ 07:38
    Australia's major trading partner has stopped buying to a large extent its goods, including beef Barley wheat crayfish and coal (its biggest export). Australia has lost one of its biggest income sources being foreign student education.Not sure I can agree with Raoul on that.
    • GG
      Glenn G.
      21 November 2020 @ 09:48
      Have they stopped buying coal? Not sure this is sustainable for China long term, Australia can sell to Japan /India for years to come, where does China source the shortfall? Longer term, Australia needs to decouple from China, despite the new trade agreement. There’s a geopolitical game being played here regarding China /US /“west”. Apologies for bringing up such base sentiment but ...Australia fought 2 world wars with the”west”, this is who we are as a nation. Australia will follow US/ “west “ lead on China.
    • TK
      Todd K.
      21 November 2020 @ 14:11
      Iron ore is Australia's biggest export actually. Chinese have been buying boatloads of it despite the coal spat. Natural gas, Australia's third largest export will likely overtake coal anyway as its "cleaner". The education exports are fourth on the list, but should return when the world normalizes ? The immediate offset to this large loss is Australian's aren't traveling overseas right now, and that's a 20-24 billion drop in import spending ! https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/cot-2018-19.pdf page 15
  • JL
    J L.
    21 November 2020 @ 13:22
    Re central bank digital currencies and negative interest rates: 1) Are CBDCs really going to be a factor before, say, 2024? The rollout will take years even with political buy-in. Not in China but in the West rather. They are so far out it seems premature to imagine their arrival having transmission effects. 2) If CBDCs create the ability to offer different interest rates to different regions, industries, or groups, why have negative interest rates at all? Imagine being able to give a high positive savings rate to individual savers on deposit accounts of $100K or less, a high-ish lending rate to mortgage lenders, and a low or near-zero rate to favored industries or suppressed regions. You get all the benefit of variability, even extreme variability if need be by going higher on the rate you pay individual savers, without any of the nightmarish logistical headaches of going negative.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    21 November 2020 @ 13:02
    Black Swan? Trying to be apolitical, however I see an election going to the Supreme Court as the possible black swan...just sayin
    • JL
      J L.
      21 November 2020 @ 13:19
      The odds of that are zero. Not low, but zero. There isn't a court case to even offer them. The Trump legal team has lost something like 33 out of 34 cases at this point, and the only one they "won" was a minor technicality that had no impact on vote tallies, and even Trump-appointed federal judges are throwing out their cases for lack of evidence. It's over.
  • JL
    J L.
    21 November 2020 @ 13:16
    The insistence on being dollar bullish because of a macro view, even as price persistently says something different in the presence of wholly plausible alternative macro views, is starting to bring John Hussman to remind. Remember him? The guy who argued with the stock market for ten years straight because his personal configuration of the macro picture was never deviated from?
  • JH
    Jack H.
    21 November 2020 @ 10:33
    Raoul, I absolutely love everything you're giving us to guide us through some unprecedented economic times BUT I have a minor and somewhat pedantic complaint... You need to stop calling this a "Winter of Discontent". The phrase means not the beginning but the end of the difficult period, with spring, sunshine and happier times arriving. Just saying...
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      21 November 2020 @ 13:11
      That was my fault, Jack. I probably had Thatcher on my mind because my wife is watching The Crown!
  • TB
    Terry B.
    21 November 2020 @ 12:18
    When you buy 1 BTC for $20,000 you don't own 1 BTC. You own 100,000,000 Satoshis. Most people don't understand this.
  • JG
    Johan G.
    21 November 2020 @ 10:17
    Raoul and Ed, Enjoy your rum and merlot, rum and coke suitable for the beach in Cayman, and merlot for indoor winter evening in DC! A question regarding the Chinese issue of Euro bonds. I agree that they are playing a carry trade, but they could do this also in Euro Dollar bonds even if the interest differential is smaller. But if the Chinese start using Euro bonds in a big way, could that not be a part of a strategy to become more independent of the USD? If an 'offshore' market develops in Euro bonds issued by non Euro countries/entities, could that not develop into a competitor to the Euro dollar market, reducing the USD role in world trade?
  • jn
    jordan n.
    21 November 2020 @ 08:01
    Raoul! my appreciation of you has risen to a new level. Flor de cana...respect...you're a man that knows his rum. Hope you’ve had the chance to visit beautiful Nicaragua
  • RF
    Ricky F.
    21 November 2020 @ 06:53
    Gents, time for you to go to Parler and leave Twitter
  • JT
    John T.
    21 November 2020 @ 05:45
    I was happy to see you had this one as a freebie on YouTube. I posted it on my Facebook and my Amateur Economics Geeks group to show some friends my favorite source for economic news, strategies and commentary.
  • DD
    Darrell D.
    21 November 2020 @ 04:08
    Who are the 2 thumbs down on this? Could it be the 2 people on RV that knows who Dan Rather is? (reference timestamp ~42:30). Having Dan Rather on RV seems to me like having Harry Dexter White talking about the place of Bitcoin and CBDCs in today's world.
  • DR
    Dick R.
    21 November 2020 @ 04:04
    What happened to Raoul's sound? It sounds like two Dixie Cups and a string. Very fatiguing to the ear. Further work is needed.
  • AD
    Andrew D.
    21 November 2020 @ 03:55
    That is exactly what is happening in Minot N.D.
  • RB
    Richard B.
    21 November 2020 @ 03:32
    Can China miners now liquidate their coins now OKEx exchange allowing withdrawals. Break even now close to pre-halving levels