Chaos Rules in D.C.: Lyn Alden on the Fourth Turning and Her Latest Trades

Published on
January 6th, 2021
Duration
57 minutes

Tony Greer on Oil’s Surge, Liquidity Bonanzas, and “Inflation Hedge Paradise”


Chaos Rules in D.C.: Lyn Alden on the Fourth Turning and Her Latest Trades

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Nick Correa, Ash Bennington, Ed Harrison, Jack Farley, and Lyn Alden

Published on: January 6th, 2021 • Duration: 57 minutes

In this unique edition of the Real Vision Daily Briefing, managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington give a breaking news update on the unprecedented events unfolding in Washington, D.C., whether or not they will have impact on the markets having closed at record high, and if they are reflective of events on the ground or are divorced from political and social reality. Then, Real Vision’s Nick Correa discusses the ADP jobs report and the possibility of a jobless recovery for the U.S. economy. In the main segment, Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy tells Real Vision’s Jack Farley how her reflation thesis has been shaped by recent events such as the Georgia runoff election, the release of the Fed’s FOMC minutes, and the chaos in the nation’s capital. Alden shares her latest trades on EM bank stocks and breaks down various quantitative measures to value Bitcoin.

Comments

Transcript

  • RG
    Raoul G.
    15 January 2021 @ 09:03
    thankfully not a sausage fest
  • ar
    andrew r.
    12 January 2021 @ 00:34
    Insurrection? You guys really have to be joking.
  • DN
    Douglas N.
    7 January 2021 @ 00:15
    Welcome to the club regarding the Alice in Wonderland feeling. This is exactly how millions of us I started feeling following the Memorial Day riots and throughout the summer. It's really interesting how politics so profoundly affects the economic perspective.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      7 January 2021 @ 03:47
      What's more interesting is how there were no funded crowds, no bus brought signs, no pallets of bricks left for the paid protesters ... but Quid Pro Joe wants "unity" now supposedly, though he never condemned much more anti american activities and destroying Americans lives for all of 2020. Interesting logic.
    • DS
      David S.
      11 January 2021 @ 17:45
      What about the dark pools that funded the rally. They will not remain dark forever. DLS
  • BB
    Benjamin B.
    9 January 2021 @ 17:37
    Interesting Ed and Ash keep talking about how unprecedented the events were. Its not unprecedented at all. Perhaps you were asleep when antifa and BLM were blocking highways, setting business on fire, looting and assaulting innocent people for months.. The only difference was the venue. Where was your coverage then? The mainstream media is a joke (RV looks set to join them) and social media silences conservative voices. When one has no outlet in which to utilize the first amendment the only alternative is to use force to express your views. The big irony here is that the left (as well as RV) largely turned a blind eye to months of widespread rioting and destruction, then appear dumbfounded when the right finally assembles a single mob, really?
    • DS
      David S.
      11 January 2021 @ 01:30
      IMO in both left and right wing demonstrations there are opportunistic thugs who take advantage of the situation. In this case a peaceful demonstration would have been free speech. This was not a peaceful demonstration. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      11 January 2021 @ 02:06
      I do not remember where in the law a citizen is allowed to use force to express your view. If you believe this, however, you should endorse and protect Antifa and BLM right to use force to express their views. This is why it us not a good idea. Even freedom of speech has limitations. Good luck. DLS
  • KR
    Kevin R.
    10 January 2021 @ 08:15
    I can't believe the market went up after the insurrection - I thought for sure that would be the catalyst to break up the markets rise - I will never trust the market again and will hide my retirement funds under the mattress.
    • DS
      David S.
      11 January 2021 @ 01:34
      Markets are merely the net of all the trades placed. It is human nature you might want to think about. DLS
  • AW
    Angela W.
    8 January 2021 @ 17:54
    How is it possible that a sitting President of the United States can incite an insurrection at the Capitol building, the home of democracy, and still remain President? If a foreign leader did it, it would be called an act of war.
    • CM
      Charles M.
      10 January 2021 @ 15:11
      How is it possible that the Democrats have spent the last 4 years inciting violence. Hypocrite.
  • gr
    graham r.
    9 January 2021 @ 13:34
    Lyn twice talked about The Fourth Turning. Might have been nice to credit its author Neil Howe.
  • jl
    johan l.
    9 January 2021 @ 10:10
    It really looks like Jack has a crush on Lyn. Real Vision, bringing love to the world. <3
  • mf
    massimo f.
    9 January 2021 @ 00:10
    I try not to do this but - Lyn Alden is the worst. She is always talking about the ‘petrodollar’. What other post world war 2 currency could have been used instead of the USD? The US was the only large economy spared from the destruction of the great wars. Even now, there is hardly a currency that could replace the USD as the world’s reserve currency, it has almost nothing to do with oil. She’s been right for the past couple months, but I’m not sure if she actually knows why she is right.
    • DS
      David S.
      9 January 2021 @ 08:05
      As I type the dominance of the dollar used to settle payments around the world is diminishing. In my opinion this is fine. Let the worldwide FX market worry about this.The interesting unknown for me is what asset will investors use for their surplus funds? The Euro is still an experiment. The value of the Yuan will be controlled where possible by the Chinese. The Japanese Yen has its problems. Gold, Bitcoin, real estate etc. will be important. It will be fun to see how the fiat currencies play out over time. DLS
  • AT
    Alun T.
    8 January 2021 @ 13:42
    Jack seemed a bit tongue tied...... think he has a little crush on Ms Alden? Just saying....
    • SL
      Shawn L.
      9 January 2021 @ 08:01
      same
  • JR
    Jan R.
    7 January 2021 @ 17:29
    I'm European and I think that Trump will not step down, so the states will have 2 presidents. One official and a shadow president. Is this a possibility? Just to quote Trump "we’re gonna fight like hell". A rebirth of the Confederation?
    • DB
      Dr B.
      7 January 2021 @ 23:49
      No.
    • PJ
      Peter J.
      8 January 2021 @ 07:50
      I think Trump is finished, I think Trumpism goes on
    • DD
      David D.
      8 January 2021 @ 08:25
      I think there is a greater than 0% chance (not high, but greater than zero) that Trump and his gun-toting, illiterate supporters will eventually attempt to break off some small portion of the United States (perhaps a portion of the deep south or a portion of Eastern Washington or Oregon) to form some sort of small nation state that treats the Trump family as royalty and shields Donald Trump himself from prosecution at the state level in New York. It will be a backwards, mostly rural area. It could be the basis of a constitutional crisis in the offing for Biden. The irony is that educated America is simultaneously making tremendous advances in the areas of semiconductors, software, genomic sciences, space exploration, IoT, vehicle electrification, solar power, food security, etc. etc. Meanwhile, Trump and his supporters, like the Amish and the Taliban, will essentially "opt in" to a belief system that is backwards looking, hostile to truth and science, and whipped around by religious zealotry (Q Anon in the case of the Trump supporters). The "insurrection day" incident is not over. Tens of millions of Americans (mostly poor, white, and lesser educated) believe the election was "stolen" and will follow their orange-skinned populist savior to their graves. The upshot? Be leery of the US dollar even if there is a lot of dollar debt outstanding as a bullish underpinning.
  • DD
    David D.
    8 January 2021 @ 08:01
    Lyn Alden Schwartz is a new discovery I find insightful.
  • JL
    J L.
    7 January 2021 @ 03:28
    Okay, I'll bite. Markets are NOT broken. Or if they are, this is NOT evidence of it. I'm responding to this from Bennington: "Someone has to say it: The capital markets in the United States appear to be broken. We have the congress of the United States occupied by a mob, and the Dow Jones industrial average closes up… I mean, the VIX declines by one percent, on a day when we see political risk in the systems we've frankly never seen before in our lifetimes? It's hard to understand…" Let me break down a devil's advocate view: First, the market's job is to discount a long-term stream of future cash flows. The price level of a stock, or an index like the Dow or the S&P 500, is a reflection of earnings expectations and interest rate expectations stretching far, far into the future. The value of the Dow or the S&P, in other words, is deliberately NOT supposed to reflect a single day's events. It is supposed to reflect an outlook twelve months, forty-eight months, ninety-six months ahead. It would in fact be strange if markets DID respond to what happened on capitol hill today. Why? Because the events on capitol hill do not appear to have any significant political or geopolitical ramifications. At all. Protesters stormed the capital, yes. But look at the facts on the ground: — The protesters are largely dead-enders and weekend warriors. This is not a movement with teeth. If someone says we are headed for civil war, I ask: Who are the insurgents supposed to shoot exactly? These angry MAGA types are blowing off steam. It got serious in the capitol today. But where is it going to go? — Both political parties, Republicans and Democrats, are united in stopping the violence. McConnell and Schumer are on the same side. The Pentagon is on the same side. The nation's law enforcement apparatus is on the same side. Again, where is the insurgency going to go? — Trump, to the extent he is trying to incite mayhem, is completely isolated. Even Pence, one of his most loyal political figures, has broken with him. To the extent Trump wants further insurrrection he is completely alone. He has no political power left. He may in fact be at risk of being impeached, a second time, before January 20. And so, first off, this January 6 event — as ugly, as embarrassing, and as shocking as it was — does not look like a new crisis event that is about to spiral out of control. Instead, it looks like a coda. It is an ending, not a beginning. It is the last gasp of a thread that goes back to Charlottesville. The "insurgents" have no natural political base. They will have no further oxygen from Republican officials. They will not stop the Biden inauguration. They will not subvert congressional business. From the perspective of headlines and video images and America's reputation. But in terms of forward consequences, it is not a big deal. Markets were right to ignore the events on capitol hill because those events WILL NOT IMPACT VALUATIONS. What is going to change because MAGA heads are mad? Explain how this transfers through to the economy? Answer: It doesn't. Meanwhile, DEMOCRATS JUST WON THE SENATE. THAT IS HUGE FOR MARKETS. Why? Because fiscal. Dems are already planning to move $2,000 checks out the door so fast it will make your head spin. They will do more fiscal too. And a lot of it will get through, either with Republican buy-in or budget reconciliation. That is bullish. Very bullish. Because the Dems want to stimulate the economy in such a way that the lower half of the economy will SPEND. Follow the money. When the Dems send out a $2,000 monthly check where does the money go? For millions of Americans who don't need the money, they will YOLO it right back into meme stocks like they did with the first $1,200. And for low income Americans who DO need the $2,000, what will they spend it on? Stuff like groceries. And clothes. And Netflix. And other things that will benefit public companies like Amazon and Walmart and Home Depot and on and on. Your focus on the dramatic visual nature of the events on capitol hill fails to process the fact that such events are an ending of sorrts, not a beginning. If anything, these events are bullish for Biden and for the next administration's ability to push big legislation through. Why? Because the Trump wing of the Republican party just saw its stock plummet, and the Romney-Collins wing of the Republican party just saw its stock rocket higher, and the Romney-Collins wing will be READY TO DO DEALS with Biden and Schumer. So. Guys. Markets are not broken. Not in the least. Just consider that: — Markets discount a long-term stream of future cash flows, not daily events. — The visual spectacle of the capitol mob was an ending, not a beginning. — The Biden administration has a remarkably unified position. — Big, BIG fiscal is coming. That will go into stocks, and into spending. — Meanwhile, J-Pow is about to team up with Super-Yellen. I would argue the VIX movement makes sense too. The capitol hill events mean LESS political volatility in the coming months, not more. Why? Because Trumpism just burned itself out. There was a real risk that Trump would be a political agitator in exile. But he would have had to retain actual political capital, and a hold on the Republican party establishment, to do that. After the events on capitol hill, Trumpism just blew itself up. Hawley and Cruz are pariahs now. Did you see what George Will wrote about Hawley and Cruz? What Hawley's own hometown newspaper said about him? And all of this comes after the GOP lost two Georgia senate raises, in humiliating fashion, because they lost control of the MAGA train which split disastrously with moderate Republicans in the Atlanta suburbs. What this means politically speaking is that Trumpism is burning itself out. Trump will have far less hold on the Republican party, and the Romney and Collins wing far more, after today. That is good the Biden administration, good for political unity, good for political unity, and bullish for the passage, of, say, a HUGE infrastructure project that will move trillions into the system. The market isn't broken at all. The market is thinking longer term and looking past the noise. You guys see chaos and danger. The market sees a capstone on MAGA craziness that just burned itself out and a far saner political season ahead, coupled with heavy, heavy fiscal that will benefits stocks directly (via stimulus check money buying stocks) and indirectly (via lower income Americans buying stuff that Fortune 500 companies sell). Follow the money. That's what you gotta do. In 2021 there is a lot more money coming. From congress directly. From creative programs rolled out by Yellen and J-Pow. From a reignition of bank lending as strong companies with franchises (think Target and Chipotle and Home Depot etc) expand operations into a small business void. And meanwhile there are hundreds of billions in SPAC deals that stilil need acquisition targets with a near timeframe — they HAVE to deploy the funds by 2022 — and the Robinhood crowd is still hungry and greedy and they are about to get a big new shot of stimmy. The markets make a ton of sense actually. Y'all just have the wrong frame. Just my .02.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      7 January 2021 @ 03:39
      J.L.: I sincerely hope you are right.
    • NC
      NATHAN C.
      7 January 2021 @ 04:09
      RV should get this guy on.
    • JB
      Jamie B.
      7 January 2021 @ 05:15
      This would have to be the single most sensible, forward-looking & hype-free explanation of this situation I've seen. Great analysis. Thanks so much for sharing. Your commentary has facilitated a little shift in the way I will look at markets moving forward. Thank you
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      7 January 2021 @ 06:40
      J.L. I should add, the largely conciliatory political gestures — and the increasing political isolation of President Trump — bear out your optimism for political conciliation. I remain concerned about a potential valuation jump function in the event that suppressed market volatility gets exposed via some still unknown regime shift. U.S. equity markets remain awash in liquidity from fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the impact of passive indexation is challenging to quantify. Against that backdrop, I think it's reasonable to wonder about record closing highs on the DJIA, and all-time highs on the Russell 2000 — particularly after a greater than 100 percent trough-to-peak gain on the R2K from its lows in March. I worry about Fed policy actions fueling inequality, causing malinvestment, benefiting large incumbents, and otherwise distorting markets — but I also worry about the broader perception of those issues. I said 'capital markets appear broken' — rather than 'capital markets are broken' — for a reason. Even if markets are correctly pricing the 12-month forward outlook on the value of future cash flows on equities, it's not unreasonable to be concerned about the rising divergence in perception around markets and distributional issues. Particularly when so many Americans are losing work from coronavirus lockdowns as the financial and tech economy boom. I very much enjoyed your take. Hope you keep sharing these posts!
    • VF
      Vassilios F.
      7 January 2021 @ 06:56
      Love your take, but it also depends on how you define "Trumpism." Trumpism is just a shade of populism, which at its root, arises when people feel like their decisions don't matter. Lack of agency for average people is not a feeling that will "burn out" anytime soon. College debt, public and private bureaucracies that citizens struggle to navigate through, insane health care costs, marital problems, CYA legal cancer, etc. etc. etc. Let's be honest, the cards are stacked against most Americans. If this overgrowth isn't managed, we will continue to have forest fires. Maybe not like what we had today, but there will continue to be a higher amount of friction than we had pre-2008 (or maybe 2001 is the demarcation line?).
    • YL
      Yuchen L.
      7 January 2021 @ 07:11
      Everything is just so divided. Politics, markets, how we shall handle the pandemic.
    • JL
      J L.
      7 January 2021 @ 08:23
      @ Ash B. I hear you on the valuation concerns. But I don't see them being indicative of how far the market can go, as long as various drivers continue to point in the right direction. I'd rather have positive directional tail exposure, and then limit losses via risk management, then try to anticipate overly early (possibly far too early) when things will stall or turn. In my view the market is a complex adaptive system -- or rather an interlinked series of complex adaptive systems -- that exhibits something known as "criticality." A system that exhibits criticality tends toward emergent events that follow a power law. The defining feature of a power law event is that there is no "average" size for the event, only an inverse relationship between frequency and magnitude. Earthquakes, forest fires, market crashes, and bull runs are all emergent outputs of complex systems that exhibit criticality. There is no "average" size for such events, only the aforementioned inverse relationship between frequency and magnitude. They can always get bigger, and bigness correlates to rareness. (For more on this check out "Ubiquity" by Mark Buchanan.) Another feature of systems that exhibit criticality is that starting points look exactly the same. The starting point for a tiny earthquake looks the same as the starting point for a huge one; the starting point for small war looks the same as a large one; etcetera. What does this have to do with valuations? It helps explain why attempting to call a top on a valuation basis is futile, and why even a vague "feel" for a valuation extreme can be misleading before the fact of a clear turn, i.e. before there is empirical evidence that conditions have changed. If the market is a complex adaptive system that exhibits criticality -- and I would argue it is, and does -- then valuation expansions are subject to a power law. That, in turn, means you don't know how big the valuation expansion will get, or how long it will last. You only know the possibility exists that it can keep getting bigger. It's like the car on the hill Mike Green talks about -- the power law is the hill, and we have no idea how big the hill actually is. And thus one of the reasons calling a top in advance is so hard, if not impossible, is because power law events have characteristics of an exponential doubling cycle. If you predict five doubling cycles but there are actually six, your premature estimate will be off by 100%. Similarly with valuations, if one has "concern" too early in the cycle, it is possible to be off by 100%, or 300%, because the power law feature of valuation expansion as an emergent property can lead to such extremes. I can also give many theoretical reasons why the current valuation expansion could continue. The point is less to rely on any one scenario set, than to point out that many expansion scenarios exist (because the system drivers remain ripe for such). Take an extreme depreciation event in the US dollar for example. If the dollar falls far enough and fast enough, it could push the major indices up another 30-40% solely on that basis. Why? Because extreme currency depreciation could wind translating to nominal price appreciation for paper assets. For instance, If the dollar gets super--duper cheap, that would imply the assets of the tech juggernauts are also super-cheap for any buyer using euros or yen or RMB. But of course, those tech assets would still be relatively scarce — and so the share prices would adjust higher in nominal terms (to adjust for the dollar!) and valuation would expand. Am I predicting that severe dollar appreciation will drive nominal asset valuations much, much higher? Not really. My point is more that such a thing COULD occur. It is a possible, plausible thing that could happen. And then, too, within a super-huge complex system, there are so many other possible, plausible scenarios — "things that could happen" — you can find lots of ways to arrive at outlier valuation possibilities. And that is exactly the point of saying that complex systems tend to exhibit criticality — there are so many degrees of freedom within a sufficiently nuanced system, you can wind up almost anywhere, in terms of the size of emergent power law events, with the right combination of inputs. The only constraint is that the bigger the event, the rarer it is. In this sense I am very much against the idea of top calling in advance. There is no good way to do it in the context of a complex system that has not yet showed signs of phase change, and exhibiting concern around a valuation — without explicitly attaching those concerns to timely empirical evidence — is a form of top calling. The challenge is like trying to guess the last iteration of a doubling cycle. Again, get it wrong by a single doubling and you are in the wrong zip code. Get it wrong by multiple doublings and you are on the wrong continent. My answer (developed over years of trial and error) is to be relentlessly Bayesian and to focus on signs of phase change. Bayesian adjustment comes into play when there are tangible signs that the picture is changing -- e.g. when there is a confluence of data points that suggest a given state of the market has shifted from bullish to bearish, or hot and excitable to neutral and stagnant and so on. This is different than expressing extended valuation concerns. It is more like making a series of observations in real time, micro-adjusting one's view of general conditions with each new data point then comes in, and then looking for phase changes that indicate conditions are changing. I'm struggling to pinpoint the qualitative difference I'm trying to get across, but maybe it's this: I would suggest a focus on general conditions that is agnostic as to directional magnitude, i.e. focus on the direction a market is moving and the velocity at which it is traveling. Then refrain from expecting or anticipating a change in direction until you actually see empirical signs of a shift. This approach rationally rules out picking a top or a bottom, in a sense, because the power law concept says you don't know the magnitude of a move that is progressing at a sustainable clip. If you don't know the extent of the doubling cycle (or halving cycle in reverse), then you focus on the vectors and look for changes in magnitude or direction or signs of phase change. Then, too, a sense of the fundamentals can weigh in too — but as another form of reflexive Bayesian input, with price the ultimate arbiter (e.g. "don't be bearish on small caps if they remain above the 50 day moving average, because maybe there is a scenario driving the power law expansion that is nowhere near done yet"). Anyway, totally geeking out now so I'll stop. Thanks for the kind words and the reply. I've been a fan of you guys for years and have learned a lot from RV.
    • DG
      David G.
      7 January 2021 @ 08:51
      There is a lot here so Ill say this, the market is rationally irrational. There is a powerful narrative that nothing will derail MMT and Government spending. Some are rationally trading this knowing it will end, but not knowing when, and they want to make what they can. Other participants are irrationally investing with the belief that they should buy every dip until they are out of powder. They are eventually going to get burned with margin calls, or selling after a 60% bear market that the fed doesn't save or isn't able to. I'm telling my self everyday. listen for the narratives and groupthink driving the market, don't predict, and trade what you can see happening, because you don't have scale in and out, because you aren't large enough to affect price on entries and exits.
    • DG
      David G.
      7 January 2021 @ 09:07
      Hi JL. You sound like a cross between Hedge eye, James Rickards, and Shiller. I appreciate you writing all of that. Is criticality what James Rickards talks about in his books? I listened to them on audible, I don't have them as reference. FYI RV, Rickards has a new book I'm sure he would love to come on here and promote.
    • JL
      Jonathan L.
      7 January 2021 @ 11:34
      JL's comment and the replies are like a bonus RVDB segment. Thanks all.
    • DA
      David A.
      7 January 2021 @ 13:27
      "The capitol hill events mean LESS political volatility in the coming months, not more. Why? Because Trumpism just burned itself out". Brilliant comment. I think you're right.
    • JL
      J L.
      7 January 2021 @ 15:41
      @ David G I don't know if Rickards gets into the concept, but "Ubiquity" by Mark Buchanan covers it well and is an absolutely fantastic read. Also re rationally irrational, probably my favorite quote, in terms of understanding how markets function, comes from Nietzsche: "All things are subject to interpretation. Whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth."
    • HS
      Henry S.
      7 January 2021 @ 21:05
      Superb post J.L Kudos!
    • JB
      Jonathan B.
      7 January 2021 @ 22:10
      I suspect Trumpism is not remotely burning out. If anything vast portions of the US population appear far more prone to authoritarianism and isolationism. If not him another strongman will rise to take his place during the decade. This election was the appetizer, wait until 2024.
    • DG
      David G.
      8 January 2021 @ 07:41
      Nietzsche's are so truth; in life, in politics, and in the markets. Thanks!
    • DG
      David G.
      8 January 2021 @ 07:42
      Nietzsche's words are so true; in life, in politics, and in the markets. Thanks!
  • PC
    Peter C.
    8 January 2021 @ 03:55
    GOAT for the DB. Shout outs to Lyn & J L. (for her / his Comments).
  • JB
    Jonathan B.
    7 January 2021 @ 22:03
    Lyn is outstanding. Where the heck did RV find her? What a talent. She and Jack have a good chemistry. Makes for a wonderful interview. Keep it up.
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    7 January 2021 @ 21:03
    Interesting views by Lyn and specific. Good questions by Jack with a friendly style. Well done
  • MT
    Mark T.
    7 January 2021 @ 20:28
    Think how stupid those involved in the insurrection are: they committed criminal acts in the name of a thrice married, porn star loving, casino bankrupting, frozen steak peddling, former reality TV show host and recorded themselves doing it and posted the evidence online so that the authorities will have all they need to lock them away for 10 year. MAGA!
  • JP
    John P.
    7 January 2021 @ 09:17
    Literally everyone in the media: This is an insane unprecedented disaster, a coup attempt, nothing like this has ever happened before, everything is collapsing, we are ruled by a mob!!! Markets: This is no big deal. Listen to the markets. They are insanely overvalued by most metrics, but on a relative day-to-day basis they are saying this is effectively a nonevent. Over the past four years there's been politicians shot, attacked in homes, and all sorts of protests and occupation of government space. Goofing off with podiums and leaving really doesn't seem all that seditious.
    • DL
      David L.
      7 January 2021 @ 12:01
      Nightly riots in Portland all summer and other cities: not a peep. One demonstration in DC: major issue. Does it depend on who is doing the rioting?
    • SS
      Stephen S.
      7 January 2021 @ 16:21
      Would agree we’ve seen all kinds of unrest for the last several years. While this is certainly a spectacle Im not sure it’s that unprecedented given the past year.
    • MT
      Mark T.
      7 January 2021 @ 20:18
      David L: Not a peep? Give me a break. PDX riots were front page news on FoxNews for the last 6 months. But we get that you think these are equivalent. Says something about you that you label what happened in DC yesterday as a 'demonstration'. Most people on all sides of the political spectrum are using the words riot, insurrection or sedition.
  • HV
    Henrik V.
    7 January 2021 @ 19:30
    Lyn. Always sharp as a knife 👍😷
  • PD
    Pierre-Luc D.
    7 January 2021 @ 18:25
    Lyn explains her greatly reasoned thesis so well, I really don't know how it would be possible to do any better.
  • WS
    William S.
    7 January 2021 @ 16:59
    Think you should have a political angle - its part of the mix...
  • WS
    William S.
    7 January 2021 @ 16:58
    Well - not sure what you'd expect given status quo of Trump era has been nothing but chaos or at least controlled chaos....
  • CK
    Cristina K.
    7 January 2021 @ 16:20
    Lyn Alden is truly amazing. An inspiration.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    7 January 2021 @ 15:47
    Lyn is great. Any chance Jack of sharing the charts for pricing BTC that Lyn sent you?
  • AY
    Ali Y.
    7 January 2021 @ 12:27
    Fantastic Daily Briefing. Enjoyed this a lot. And Lyn Alden is amazing as always. Thanks all!
  • JC
    Juan C.
    7 January 2021 @ 09:51
    I liked Lyn a lot, she talks a lot of sense
  • MS
    Martin S.
    7 January 2021 @ 09:28
    It seems to me in current Geopolitical climate, US allowing their stock markets to fall significantly would have National Security implications . I don’t hear people discussing this narrative (perhaps for good reason as completely incorrect but seems plausible to me), I.e. the markets are no doubt divorced from reality and are being manipulated, with the above being one element of why they can’t be allowed to fail / drop significantly. Would this be an inaccurate way to think about things?
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    7 January 2021 @ 07:56
    Great work Jack
  • gr
    graunde r.
    7 January 2021 @ 00:45
    I am dumbfounded about how hopelessly stupid americans became. Popcorn time for sure for the rest of the world.
    • BR
      Benjamin R.
      7 January 2021 @ 07:47
      Which country do you come from?
  • BC
    Bill C.
    7 January 2021 @ 01:31
    My question is whether the claims of voting irregularities, in all forms, have merit. My understanding is more than 1000 affidavits, possible multiple thousands by now, have been given. Those that did risk perjury and multiple year jail terms if they lied. The majority of "news" sources that are condemning todays actions are those that promoted 3+ years of the claim that Trump in some way colluded with Russia and then promoted the idea there was some impeachable offense in regard to Ukraine, a claim that led to an attempt at impeachment. I submit the majority of these news sources have unde-covered or omitted details of the affidavits and other related details that we know are not claims but were unconstitutional actions that took place. Meanwhile, are we about to anoint to office a person that didn't win the election. Let's look into the details.
    • JA
      John A.
      7 January 2021 @ 02:55
      Let's say the Republican concerns about votes does have merit. Republican states have been creating laws in an effort to covertly suppress minority voting for - decades -. And no one gave a shit except minorities. So this appears as sour grapes from people who lost a bitterly contested election from where I am standing. Now they feel disenfranchised? Well take a number, you have something in common with many on the left who have felt that way for generations. Maybe they can develop some empathy for how others have felt in this country for a lot longer. If we want to make elections more transparent and fix some of the more questionable aspects of them going forward? Great. But the game was played, the score was counted, and the election was won. It's over, move on. They get another shot at the title in 4 years. No one man is worth throwing away the rule of law.
    • JL
      J L.
      7 January 2021 @ 03:00
      They lost sixty court cases. Sixty. Many in front of Trump appointed judges. In Georgia, they counted the vote three separate times. Three. And an affidavit doesn't have nearly the weight you imply. It can be a signature, or even an electronic signature. Unless the courts are a real threat to come after you, it's a glorified version of a pinky swear.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      7 January 2021 @ 03:44
      John, it's funny that you only consider the definition of disenfranchised as whatever you want it to be. How thoughtful of you. Where have I noticed that? Your words don't mean anything ... like "supress". You meant, they made laws that actually involved requirements for voting to prove you're a citizen. Wow, that's controversial. JL, no one heard the merits of the court cases, for things like "Standing" which is just BS. Stop the lies. Counting ballots over and over means nothing, I agree - the issue is that you have inauditable ballots that were fraudulent, and even when you have a signature verification as a type of audit to prove yet again how many fake ballots there were... you don't allow that. So much for open elections. I wonder why you are so afraid of checking the ballots ... could it be, you don't care about anything but power? The only value of the left, indeed.
    • MF
      Michael F.
      7 January 2021 @ 04:44
      Do you have a list of those 1,000 affidavits? Are they posed on a web site somewhere where they can be examined or are they a figment of your imagination? Shouldn't you be able to substantiate your claim?
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      7 January 2021 @ 05:14
      This would be a great post on ZH.
    • BR
      Benjamin R.
      7 January 2021 @ 07:44
      Bill C - You are right.
  • VF
    Vassilios F.
    7 January 2021 @ 06:29
    Want to thank Ed and Ash for being class acts. The daily briefing has been a fun and informative quarantine ritual and it's because of both of you
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      7 January 2021 @ 06:53
      Thanks you, Vassilios. It's greatly appreciated.
  • DS
    David S.
    7 January 2021 @ 00:29
    The United States of America has the depth of institutions and the rule of law to right the ship of state. After this attempted coup d'etat, there is no moral ground left with this administration. DLS
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      7 January 2021 @ 03:45
      There is not one thing you said that is remotely true. The coup was already tried by your phony leaders, and they didn't succeed. Shall I name all the ways? You can't be this dense, David.
    • DS
      David S.
      7 January 2021 @ 06:31
      Lemony S. - I guess we will have to agree to disagree. Let's discuss this in 50 years when we have a better perspective. DLS
  • BS
    Benjamin S.
    7 January 2021 @ 05:08
    Oh great, Lyn Alden is on. Time to fire up the Nespresso machine and rewind the video about 20 times to digest everything. There is simply not a clearer thinker in macro. I learn something new every time Lyn speaks. I hope RV has Lyn on speed dial for 2021. Thanks!!
  • LM
    Lee M.
    7 January 2021 @ 02:00
    Did anyone catch what exactly was the name (or ticker works too) of the Japanese conglomerate Lyn recommended? Any help would be appreciated! Thanks.
    • HD
      Hem D.
      7 January 2021 @ 03:16
      Itouche Corp Japan most probably... Don’t know if they have an ADR or how to express it in the US... good luck!
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      7 January 2021 @ 05:05
      Yup, that's the one. Here are all the companies Lyn mentioned: DBS Holdings of Singapore Scotiabank of Canada Sberbank of Russia Itochu Corporation of Japan (a commodities trading company).
  • TO
    Taryn O.
    7 January 2021 @ 02:56
    Lin Alden is absolutrly great.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      7 January 2021 @ 05:02
      I agree!
  • MV
    Marc-Olivier V.
    7 January 2021 @ 03:49
    Great ITW with Lyn, Jack
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      7 January 2021 @ 05:00
      I'm glad you enjoyed it. Lyn really knows her stuff and always brings something new to the table
  • JD
    Jesse D.
    7 January 2021 @ 03:40
    The markets aren’t up because of the protests. They’re up because the election is essentially settled. The market is a forward looking discounting mechanism.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      7 January 2021 @ 04:59
      I "feel" that you are right Jesse. But is it that we've just been smacked over the head with the "bad news is good news" line of thinking too many times?
  • JH
    Jeff H.
    7 January 2021 @ 04:38
    Please get the date of the video right. Its confusing.
  • bb
    brian b.
    7 January 2021 @ 04:21
    luv lyn.shes a genius.
  • TC
    Tim C.
    7 January 2021 @ 00:49
    These protests are not ending any time soon. The tepid response from the DC police will only embolden the riots. It will be interesting to see how this impacts our markets and democracy. Will cooler heads prevail, or will this spread? I'm in the camp that this will spread across the country with violent protests. I pray I'm wrong, but I feel history is on my side.
    • HB
      Herman B.
      7 January 2021 @ 02:32
      Tim Thanks for pointing out the tepid response from DC police. One does not need to be on any political side to be concerned by how easy these mobs seemed to break in these houses. Some even taking pictures of themselves sitting in Mme Pelosi's office, or the president of senate(not sure). Those were really horrible scenes to see in such important buildings. What's next, the white house? I bet those picture will be on front pages of international newspapers. I also couldn't help thinking: Let's allow ourselves to speculate and replace the mob with say black lives matter protesters. I seem to remember that when they were expected to protest, stores had boarded all its windows, glass doors and national guards were posted in cities well ahead of the protests. Why didn't that happen today? If I understand, the protest was planned and everybody new they were coming. To me I find all the conversations really without any value because they fail to point to these gaps. Just like financial talking heads keep talking about deficits when they know very well that the first institution to be addicted to these fiscal/monetary policies are..... the financial markets. Remember what happened when Mme Janet Jelen increased the rate once and Jay twice? He had to get back in REPO's markets pronto. For similar situations, the security folks seem to have multiple solutions and often completely opposites. We all know very well that this will not solve the issues at hands. That is if we really want to see them solved. Because I sometimes wonder if we do.
    • JL
      J L.
      7 January 2021 @ 04:07
      You're wrong. It's already over. There is nowhere for this to go. Think it through. What would a MAGA protest look like in the average city? What are they going to do, show up at the mall? The DMV? Ask passersby on the street if they are Democrats? Per history, what history shows is that for an insurrection to really spread you need either 1) buy-in from elements of law enforcement and the military, or 2) a climate of lawlessness in which law enforcement and military don't exist. Lacking one of those conditions, a nationwide insurgency literally cannot happen. The insurgents either get arrested or shot by forces tasked with keeping the peace, and the seats of legislative power are fortified. What we saw on Jan. 6 was a bunch of dead-enders and a mini-storm that is blowing itself out.
  • WM
    William M.
    7 January 2021 @ 00:18
    Feels like a market top with a wily Coyote drop off the cliff imminent...but there's always the Fed ready to put a trampoline out for another big bounce...
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      7 January 2021 @ 00:21
      Well put.
    • AR
      Alexander R.
      7 January 2021 @ 02:44
      If rates spike, market would fall 20% and if we take Mike Green point of higher volatility it could be 30% and maybe more, the trampoline to save the market = yield control. Well than gold/ silver go to the sky, and USD is going down. It looks that gold/silver is perfect trade, no matter what market does.
    • DS
      David S.
      7 January 2021 @ 03:48
      I feel it will be MMT that will lead the way. At the zero bound and few cash flow investments around, the Fed is hamstring DLS
    • JL
      J L.
      7 January 2021 @ 03:59
      Hmm. I would argue it doesn't feel like a market top at all. More like the window just before the "last third of a move" that Paul Tudor Jones talked about, where things get truly nuts before the finale. And the Fed isn't the big gun anymore. Congress is. In terms of monetary versus fiscal and the power to stimulate, one is a BB-gun and the other is a Vulcan Railgun mounted on an aircraft carrier.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    7 January 2021 @ 02:00
    Ash, "...the markets are broken...". No truer words were spoken. However, I'll offer that they've been broken for a long time. October 1987 comes to mind.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      7 January 2021 @ 02:33
      Thanks, Jon.
    • JL
      J L.
      7 January 2021 @ 03:54
      Others would say markets were broken since 1913 and the creation of the Fed. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It's almost as if there is ALWAYS a political dimension to markets, or a policy dimension people are upset about, as such making a constant aspect of brokenness the market's natural state. What if markets were never in fact "broken" at all, but are instead help up against a non-broken ideal that never existed? What if markets are simply on a constant passage through an ever-evolving political and monetary landscape, and political and monetary distortions are part and parcel of the game?
  • BM
    Brook M.
    7 January 2021 @ 03:13
    What difference does it make if the ADP jobs report is showing more lost jobs? The financial markets are counting on an additional $2-$3 trillion worth of fiscal stimulus. If you want to see the market take on a somber tone (go down) make it know that this helicopter money is not coming. As long as it is expected the market's momentum upward will not be slowed. Lyn Alden was great, as always.
    • JL
      J L.
      7 January 2021 @ 03:43
      Spot on. Among other issues, focusing on the drama of the capitol spectacle overlooks the fact that Dems just won the senate and moderate Republicans just got a huge leg up -- both of which are huge positives not just for fiscal, but for stuff like a monster infrastructure package. And whatever weakness shows up in the job market will just be more incentive for Yellen and Powell to go nuts.
  • Jc
    Jacqueline c.
    7 January 2021 @ 01:21
    Why would you question if todays events in DC would effect the markets when Minnesota, kenosa and Portland didn't miss a skip? Kind regards, Jacqueline Carey
    • DS
      David S.
      7 January 2021 @ 03:40
      Great comment. President Trump has been forecasting today's events even before the election. Why would the market be surprised? DLS
  • CK
    Christopher K.
    7 January 2021 @ 02:33
    "taken over by mob?" or mostly peaceful protesters
    • DS
      David S.
      7 January 2021 @ 03:25
      Mob. DLS
    • AR
      Anthony R.
      7 January 2021 @ 03:35
      So much hand-wringing today from all the media types, including here. Where was all the pearl clutching all the rest of 2020 when time after time, city after city, mobs of leftist looted, burned and generally wreaked havoc. Pllllease. Give me a break. What hackery.
  • JM
    Jason M.
    7 January 2021 @ 02:04
    Gents: if you watch Trumps live session earlier in the day, he "asked" the crowd to "march down Pennsylvania Ave", your comments that it took Trump time to speak out, misses the point, he started this course of action, by knowing the size, make up and gave the crowd direction.
    • DS
      David S.
      7 January 2021 @ 03:30
      I think it was a great day for contributions to the Trump Hope Chest. Follow the money. DLS
  • JA
    John A.
    7 January 2021 @ 02:48
    People forget, but in 2018, the market reversed the 10Y rise before the Fed blinked and started cutting rates. In many ways, the Fed had to pivot or show itself to be inept. But with a Democratic-controlled government, I think we test the high end of where the 10Y can rise before it collapses equities.
    • DS
      David S.
      7 January 2021 @ 03:24
      Stocks may be going up because of expected inflation. DLS
  • JJ
    Jeff J.
    7 January 2021 @ 02:43
    Young Mr Bennington, my compliments on what honestly has to be the sharpest comment I have ever heard in media. For you to be obviously pissed at the events today (as am I!) yet to come up with a comment to the effect of "one never knows when you're witnessing the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand and what will come of it" just stopped me for a second. Perfect.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      7 January 2021 @ 03:10
      Thanks, Jeff. I hope the answer to what will come of it are "comity and conciliation." Time will tell.
  • CF
    Christopher F.
    7 January 2021 @ 02:23
    Ash, why would anyone sell stocks to buy the US dollar when something like this happens? I have more faith in corporations and crypto than the government right now.
    • CF
      Christopher F.
      7 January 2021 @ 02:35
      I disagree that the markets are divorced from reality. The reality is there is no good place to invest right now. I see no reason to convert anything in my portfolio to fiat cash. And I don't think I am alone in this sentiment.
  • WT
    William T.
    7 January 2021 @ 01:56
    Alot of noise today signifying nothing. Move along, nothing to see here.
  • IN
    I N.
    7 January 2021 @ 01:54
    Great!
  • GL
    Gary L.
    7 January 2021 @ 00:54
    Thought Jack did an awesome job asking great questions to tease out some of Lyn's best trade ideas and investing themes moving forward. She always brings so much insight and value. While she alluded to a price target for BTC, it would've been a good follow up question to ask her what that is. Suggestion for a future interview question for Lyn on the topic of BTC: ask her what her views are on the Tether and Bitfinex scandals, whether she views the allegations of market manipulation and lack of auditing / transparency with Tether as a potential source of risk for crypto assets. It would be enlightening to hear her take on this subject as she has clearly done a deep dive into crypto and this is a potential tail risk for BTC.
    • RS
      Robert S.
      7 January 2021 @ 01:04
      Price target with what time line? This year? By end of Biden administration?
  • RS
    Robert S.
    7 January 2021 @ 00:56
    Trump is inciting the mob to possibly take over with Marshall Law. He recently put a lot of his cronies in top military leadership positions. I have no special knowledge, just following the dots.
  • GP
    Gregory P.
    7 January 2021 @ 00:54
    Scotia lost a few B when Argentina nationalized their bank a few years ago.
  • OC
    O C.
    7 January 2021 @ 00:41
    This video needs to be uploaded to YouTube since captioning will not be done until tomorrow afternoon. Thanks.
  • WM
    William M.
    7 January 2021 @ 00:24
    Are we really all that surprised at today's events? Trump pretty much signaled this was coming...
  • LP
    Lynn P.
    7 January 2021 @ 00:23
    Perhaps markets are looking past the expected increase in Covid cases from the Holiday travel. Perhaps Democratic majority implies unfettered spending and Fed accomodation. Perhaps in such an inflationary environment with US$ down, growth, commodities and emerging markets will attract fund flows. Mike Green's inelastic market hypothesis is consistent with the above speculations.