Daily Briefing – April 10, 2020

Published on
April 10th, 2020
Duration
34 minutes


Daily Briefing – April 10, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Raoul Pal

Published on: April 10th, 2020 • Duration: 34 minutes

Real Vision CEO & co-founder Raoul Pal joins Ash Bennington for a big picture look at the events of the last few weeks in the wake of coronavirus with a focus on the global economy. Pal and Bennington discuss the broad changes brought on by the virus, including its impact on US equity markets, the bond market, long-term and durable realignments in the global economy and supply chains, and the rising tide of political risk and fragility across the globe.

Comments

Transcript

  • DB
    Daniel B.
    15 April 2020 @ 09:45
    I'm from Boston and I never wanted a New Yorker near me to begin with obviously!!!
  • SK
    Shiu K.
    14 April 2020 @ 20:50
    Will the bond market always be right now that the Fed is controlling the narrative?
  • BM
    Beth M.
    14 April 2020 @ 18:08
    Really enjoyed the conversation. However, you talk about "distrust of nations, trade tariffs and tribalism"...you are really dealing with the heart of the issue.
  • CP
    Connor P.
    13 April 2020 @ 11:21
    Raoul you're the fucking man thanks for everything
  • GR
    Grant R.
    13 April 2020 @ 01:37
    PROBLEM: the audio is MONO and only on the RIGHT CHANNEL/SIDE
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      13 April 2020 @ 02:13
      Hi, Grant. I just tested it on my system and the sound seems to be on both sides for me. Perhaps it's a loose cable?If that doesn't fix it, shoot the folks at support a quick note and we'll try to get it resolves ASAP. https://www.realvision.com/contact Thanks, —A
  • AO
    Alexander O.
    12 April 2020 @ 23:02
    When can we get the transcript of the briefing?
  • II
    IDA I.
    12 April 2020 @ 13:21
    to Ed Harrison: Hello, I was wondering if you could listen to this podcast which is very very contrarian and maybe comment in one of the next daily briefings? I would like to hear your thoughts https://moneyweek.com/economy/global-economy/601132/brian-pellegrini-this-crisis-may-not-turn-out-as-badly-as-everyone
  • GC
    Gino C.
    11 April 2020 @ 07:12
    Raoul and team, your guidance continues to be invaluable. Appreciate all the insight in such uncertain times. Oh and btw I have been converted into a Bitcoin lover. Many thanks for everything!
    • JR
      John R.
      12 April 2020 @ 08:01
      Welcome to Team Crypto!
  • JR
    John R.
    12 April 2020 @ 07:59
    Great how they emphasised the difference between an IS and a SHOULD BE perspective. So true. Not just applicable to investing but life in general!
  • JC
    JP C.
    12 April 2020 @ 02:22
    Raoul is so right..want to short a bear market? Put your trades on, buy a straightjacket and channel your inner Marc Cohodes.
  • DL
    Dominic L.
    12 April 2020 @ 01:39
    Raoul will be right at times and wrong at times, but what I personally appreciate most is the intellectual integrity he brings to the investment decision-making process. I'm looking for trades like anyone, but the value of this subscription, for me at least, is in learning _how to think_ about investing. I think Raoul's an exceptional guide, not in spite of the constant struggle with doubt ("Am I right?!"), but exactly because of it. Now give me my five bucks, Raoul. But seriously ... great conversation.
  • DL
    Dominic L.
    12 April 2020 @ 01:27
    Outstanding conversation.
  • CS
    Carl S.
    11 April 2020 @ 02:56
    Today isn't Easter..Easter is on Sunday
    • GT
      Gene T.
      12 April 2020 @ 00:25
      You got him there Carl! Well done!
  • II
    IDA I.
    11 April 2020 @ 08:57
    hello, has anyone noticed that bitcoin and USDCNY are almost perfectly correlated? there is a 50 day lag between BTC and USDCNY
    • WM
      Will M.
      11 April 2020 @ 20:03
      So Ida how does this make you feel about Raoul's suggestion for Bitcoin purchase yet CNY breaking down to 8- 10 to the dollar?
    • CH
      Charlie H.
      11 April 2020 @ 23:00
      It's correlated until it's not. BTC has been more or less correlated with S&P 500 since the all time high in BTC and start of BTC futures in December 2017. It is correlated until it's not...
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    11 April 2020 @ 16:45
    Nice one Raoul and Ash. I don't see how the USA can maintain this shutdown for much longer. You're talking about most people living paycheck-to-paycheck, around 75% - 80%. Many can't weather an emergency expense of $400 - $1000. The direct helicopter drop of money isn't enough. Its a bandaid on a leaking dam. The demand for money to survive this is seen in the deliquency of credit, 30% of renters not paying their landlords and the larger companies refusing to pay rent to commercial mortgage lenders. The models may want us to keep shut past June, but I don't think people can take it. I'd guess there would be severe social chaos if this situation is prolonged. The sensible view would be, emphasize testing, isolate from critical people, but the rest of the economy has to restart or we may miss the chance to recover what is left.
    • WM
      Will M.
      11 April 2020 @ 20:06
      I am 100% with you Timothy. I think the natives will get restless by end April and frantic and rioting by Mayish.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    11 April 2020 @ 13:00
    I found this better than the Ask me Anything. I think it may be because Ash is a more experienced interviewer than Max who is still learning the ropes. But Max has a great attitude and great potential so will improve over time with experience.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      11 April 2020 @ 19:16
      Hi Steve, thanks for the feedback and encouragement. I always appreciate it. I think the main difference between my role in the AMA and Ash's here was that I was a conduit for questions from Pro members to Raoul, only trying to get through as many questions from members as time would allow. I knew that it wasn't about me or my perspective, though a few times I couldn't help myself. Maybe as Christmas bonus I'll ask to interview RP with my own questions 😉.
  • SC
    Sam C.
    11 April 2020 @ 18:44
    thanks for being so humble and admitting you don't know what is happening.
  • OC
    O C.
    11 April 2020 @ 18:21
    captions, please. Thank you very much!
  • JS
    Jon S.
    10 April 2020 @ 22:56
    Raoul you're the man. For all the Real Vision viewers on here can we start a grass roots 'help your local restaurateur'? For example, I simply ordered from my local deli guy and tipped him very generously. He nearly buckled with the relief of cash coming into his coffer if only for a day. People, it's time to help your fellow man the way Raoul helped us.
    • TP
      Tedd P.
      10 April 2020 @ 23:39
      You are eating food that a restaurant prepared, packaged and delivered?
    • JS
      Jon S.
      10 April 2020 @ 23:44
      Deli sandwiches for me and my family. I had a mask and gloves. He had a mask and gloves and met me at the door. All arranged with a phone call.
    • AM
      Alvaro M.
      11 April 2020 @ 18:02
      Agreed..one of the best things to do is think local first before you consume. Even if its a bit more expensive or not as convenient as the majors... its our duty to support the places we love or they may not be solvent when this thing all blows over. Its not only restaurants...local farmers markets are great to help get cash to your community network immediately, if you are fortunate enough to have access to them. Most are doing pick ups and online delivery for fresh produce, bread and all types of high quality protein. Plenty of activities for kids too to keep them busy as well since many business's are going teacher led online programs...dance classes, yoga, art classes, etc. God knows, it helps break up the home school routine. Don't forget to provide social proof to spread the word.
  • PA
    Phillip A.
    11 April 2020 @ 17:41
    Great viewing, Watched this three times. Thanks guys!
  • SM
    Sayit M.
    11 April 2020 @ 17:27
    I love Daily Briefing. I think Daily Briefing is the best program RV has. Timely update and great information.
  • js
    john s.
    11 April 2020 @ 17:26
    Raoul's beginning to crack up all by himself on that island. Somewhere in that bachelor pad there's a closet full of Wilson volleyballs with faces painted on them....
  • JH
    Jonathan H.
    11 April 2020 @ 16:18
    Love the daily and timely analysis during this crazy time. I do believe most people are way too optimistic about this virus. I trust Bill Gate he says we won’t be back to normal till 2021. Of course he did says there are some best case scenario but it highly unlikely.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    11 April 2020 @ 15:43
    Good stuff. Really like this daily segment.
  • MR
    Michael R.
    11 April 2020 @ 13:17
    Great session. Would love to hear Raoul and Mark Yusko talk more about the Fourth Turning. Happy Easter!
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    11 April 2020 @ 12:36
    So it will get worse for Europe. Looks to me that what was disccused here at the end was Peter Zeihan predictions. If we go a step further we will see an energi shortage in Europe next. I am amazed by the speed the "green energy" is changing. In Sweden there is a discussion about small new clear reactors powering the cities. In Denmark the Danish queen mentioned that its not entirely proven that climate change is only man made and people should stop to panic! As I said before Europe either builds reactors or we all go back to coal!
  • TM
    Troy M.
    11 April 2020 @ 01:17
    Read a book and get off Twitter for the holiday weekend. Great advise.
    • DL
      David L.
      11 April 2020 @ 12:07
      Did exactly that on Friday - turned off the internet and all the podcasts and finished a book I had been reading (Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow). It felt great!
  • KB
    Kenneth B.
    11 April 2020 @ 12:02
    To be fair, humans have always been dangerous.
  • TW
    Thomas W.
    11 April 2020 @ 10:14
    The societal implications of approaching an all time equity high, during lockdown, would be enormous! The strategy of the last 40 years has been to drop interest rates in every crisis, saving irresponsible borrowers, paid for by responsible savers. Mortgage holders bailed out by renters. Now we are at the point where you have a class of; young, educated, entrepreneurially minded, gig-economy, renters, stuck in property they can no longer afford and their savings don't even bare any interest: living under a system with a ceiling above them. These are the filmmakers, the writers, social organisers, app developers etc. (In the UK already agitated by Brexit). Put aside the last fourth turning because it confuses people more than it helps; this is every other one before that. Politicians and Central Bankers need to focus really hard on what 'stability' is. The John Law School of economics does not work. You can do double or nothing every time you get to a crisis but the ending is always the same.
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    11 April 2020 @ 10:09
    Next flu season will people panic? I think people don't understand how big cryptos will be. Like SWIFT and blockchain. https://create.smartcontract.com/sibos17........... great as always
  • AK
    Andreas K.
    11 April 2020 @ 08:46
    Excellent, as an amateur I like the simple explanations. Going short in short term seems dumb, but longer term short would be wiser?
  • yc
    yu c.
    11 April 2020 @ 06:28
    These daily briefings have become something I can’t go without. Thank you. Look forward to more about your thoughts on yields going negative this next phase, Raoul. To everyone a great weekend and be safe.
  • JH
    Jason H.
    11 April 2020 @ 05:28
    Great discussion. Gives me hope on navigating an extremely difficult time.
  • RC
    Robert C.
    11 April 2020 @ 02:54
    Good to hear you both! Have a good WE. I think my main take away its not over in 2 months and everything back to normal. This is not a short term volatility event.
  • JA
    Jerram A.
    10 April 2020 @ 23:48
    Coconuts and fish actually sound pretty good.
    • TM
      Troy M.
      11 April 2020 @ 01:13
      But why is the rum gone?
  • AS
    Alexandru S.
    10 April 2020 @ 23:58
    Hmmm... is reshoring HYG at these levels a an option?
    • CH
      Charlie H.
      11 April 2020 @ 01:05
      Don't fight the Fed on this one (not this trade, look at LQD a few weeks ago when the Fed starting buying IG).
  • PD
    Peter D.
    11 April 2020 @ 00:57
    Enough about a "Fourth Turning." What we are in is a Kondratieff Winter. This isn't just about crediting the author of an idea. There is a subtle, but important distinction: because any turning won't occur nor settle until the winter is over.
  • KJ
    Kevin J.
    10 April 2020 @ 23:33
    Thank you for sharing the story about your friend who lost 30% on shorts in the bear market, Raoul. Makes me feel a lot better about my own shorts right now...
    • VW
      Vernon W.
      10 April 2020 @ 23:55
      Kevin I don’t even know what to do with my puts? They are good till May and June. What do you think?
    • JA
      Jordan A.
      11 April 2020 @ 00:57
      I'm in the same boat. I think it's all about position size. You gotta take it down it's just too volitile. I've got May and June puts as well. I'm not selling. This ain't over.
  • TS
    Tamim S.
    11 April 2020 @ 00:51
    Excellent as usual. Raoul is awesome.
  • PB
    Paul B.
    11 April 2020 @ 00:43
    Best not to play right now...Real Economy is already exposing the Cracks and the Serpent is about to eat it's own Tail
  • BB
    Bob B.
    11 April 2020 @ 00:26
    Raoul - since you look at EW for trading I suggest you extend (if you haven't) to Socionomics to look at the social; transitions. I'd be happy to chat with you about that.
  • AD
    Adrian D.
    11 April 2020 @ 00:21
    Thank you for taking the time, on Good Friday to give us some amazing insight. Crusaders is not a great enough word for the people you are. Have a great weekend.
  • TP
    Tedd P.
    10 April 2020 @ 23:37
    Go read a book. Great advice.
  • RC
    Randolph C.
    10 April 2020 @ 23:32
    Great video gents. Ash raised important point about heightened Fed involvement. Do you have update on playbook given Fed's moving goalposts and buying high yield? Several recent RV videos said Fed couldn't/wouldn't buy junk, and now they're buying junk. Would love to hear your comments.
  • AK
    Adam K.
    10 April 2020 @ 23:20
    Very high quality conversation here, thank you!
  • WZ
    Wei Z.
    10 April 2020 @ 23:01
    "The market don't care" Best takeaway