Daily Briefing – April 14, 2020

Published on
April 14th, 2020
Duration
28 minutes


Daily Briefing – April 14, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Nick Correa, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: April 14th, 2020 • Duration: 28 minutes

Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision's Managing Editor Ed Harrison to discuss the day's events. In this episode, the pair unpack new GDP growth forecasts, the latest economic warning from the IMF, and the first round of Q1 2020 bank earnings.

Comments

Transcript

  • NZ
    Nikola Z.
    15 April 2020 @ 21:08
    Great stuff guys. Ed - if you could do some IT troubleshooting it’d be appreciated. Lot’s of cutting out in your recording.
  • PD
    Peter D.
    15 April 2020 @ 01:08
    Must see television. Quick question: what is the feeling on the intros? The content is OK, but I find myself skipping the 2 minutes to get to Ed and Ash.
    • WM
      Will M.
      15 April 2020 @ 02:45
      I personally don’t see any value on the intros but I get detailed CV info from 2 other sites with almost daily 20 - 40 minute updates
    • se
      steve e.
      15 April 2020 @ 19:19
      Like the intro, aside from Twitter I don’t get updates anywhere else. Nice work fellas.
    • JS
      Johannes S.
      15 April 2020 @ 20:59
      Agree, I especially hate the generic intros, not useful.
  • BC
    Bryan C.
    15 April 2020 @ 19:22
    Ed Harrison is a much better Subject Matter Expert than interviewee. During his interviews, he often stumbles through his questions and they commonly seem to be off topic. But his commentary during these daily updates are well reasoned and clearly communicated - very cogent analysis stated very well.
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    15 April 2020 @ 18:32
    A study was done on Sweden in a university. Sweden is looking at 9m infections at worst. case. Up to 100 000 deaths. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133v1.full.pdf Short swedish korona.
  • AP
    Alfonso P.
    15 April 2020 @ 13:12
    A suggestion to both of you, could you rename the insolvency phase as a “realistic, informed hope phase” please? it sounds better at the lockdown mode we are living in. Ed you were trying that but Ash went again back to the insolvency terrible word. Raoul can continue using it, and will do it. Excelent as always, thanks RV
    • DL
      Dan L.
      15 April 2020 @ 16:58
      So, “hope” followed by “less hope”? Personally, I hope for as much clear language as possible, not matter how it makes me feel.
  • BI
    Brett I.
    15 April 2020 @ 13:48
    Not sure about using Iceland to judge other European countries regarding Covid19. Relatively small population in a very large country and generally regarded as a thoughtful and progressive country (not standard European mindset). Use is to compare against Canada (similar population density) or Martinique (similar population size).
  • PH
    Petter H.
    15 April 2020 @ 08:22
    The way I understood Raouls three stage model, what he called the "hope phase" is not necessarily what is happening now, but something that would play out over multiple months (in the great depression it was 6 months). If wee have a retracement to 62% and then another sell off - would that not still be part of the liquidation phase? Then a "hope phase would emerge with promises of "pent up demand" or a vaccine etc. Would love some clarification! Thanks!
    • FJ
      Florian J.
      15 April 2020 @ 10:11
      Had the same thought about this. Thanks for stating it!
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      15 April 2020 @ 12:33
      I'm not sure about how Raoul pegs it. I can ask on Friday's episode. The way I am framing it though is as a financial panic phase followed by a hope phase. The panic phase is a financial phase. In the GFC this lasted from February 2007 with Household Intl writedowns to October 2008, with considerable overlap with the hope phase since the recession began in December 2007. You can think of the hope phase as recursive bounces until it's clear that the real economy has recovered. Hope and retracement followed by fear and testing (and breakthrough) of previous equity lows. Once the real economy recovers, the hope and real economy cycles end and shares bottom. I look at it as a mental model, a framework, for understanding what macro dynamics are driving psychology.
  • DN
    Daniel N.
    15 April 2020 @ 11:51
    You mentioned about a guy thaf is creating a 500 million crypto fund. Could you provide more information, please. I could not hear his name.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      15 April 2020 @ 12:27
      It was Andreessen Horowitz. We were talking about Marc Andreessen, who was a co-founder of Netscape https://www.ft.com/content/329ca57b-5b57-4c81-9037-e704ef5c4476#myft:my-news:page
  • GW
    Gregory W.
    15 April 2020 @ 12:20
    Appreciate the informative discussion. One point I might make; in comparing prompt WTI vs Brent prices, you may be overstating the difference. Currently they have different time-frames for delivery (May vs June). May WTI settled $20.11 June WTI settled $27.40 June Brent Settled $29.60 Brent's May cash prices were roughly $6.00 lower than the June Futures contract yesterday.
  • SS
    Sergio S.
    15 April 2020 @ 11:02
    Loving these but found it interesting that AMZN’s new ATH wasn’t even acknowledged as the reason for the SPX move. Felt lacking in a way as that was a very obvious driver.
  • FB
    Frank B.
    15 April 2020 @ 08:18
    China will release its GDP numbers for Q1 on April 17. I think this will be an interesting data point, even though (or especially) taking into consideration that it will be the numbers that China decides the world to know. Also The Guardian had a long read on wtf just happened in the financial markets. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/14/how-coronavirus-almost-brought-down-the-global-financial-system
  • IP
    IDA P.
    15 April 2020 @ 06:26
    the IMF has stated that the -6% is if the lockdown ends this summer, and there are no new lockdowns. Also, you need a global response for exiting the lockdowns. They stated during the press conference (going by memory) that if barriers between countries are put up, if there is no collaborative global plan, or if the lockdowns repeat in the fall, they will have to revise the data downwards.
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    15 April 2020 @ 01:55
    Very bright guy .. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator on BBC World News, CNBC Television, Business News Network, CBC, Fox Television and RT Television. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.
    • JD
      James D.
      15 April 2020 @ 04:09
      You go Ed! Great information.
  • SC
    Sam C.
    15 April 2020 @ 03:23
    Didn't know Ash was a crypto guy, nice.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      15 April 2020 @ 03:37
      Yep. Absolutely. More crypto to come!
  • GC
    Geoffrey C.
    15 April 2020 @ 03:34
    Lean off Singapore Airlines; when they return to service, it is time to open up. Geoffrey C
  • MC
    Michael C.
    15 April 2020 @ 03:14
    Really like these post market updates. Very useful content. The Hope phase continues...for now.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    15 April 2020 @ 03:14
    Really like these post market updates. Very useful content. The Hope phase continues...for now.
  • BB
    Bob B.
    15 April 2020 @ 02:51
    Can we stop calling it 'liquidity' - that ended long ago. It's just debt issuance by the Fed! Tear the mask off guys and gals!
  • WM
    Will M.
    15 April 2020 @ 02:43
    Great review and discussion. Some of the points Ed makes are really good and insightful.
  • ag
    alan g.
    14 April 2020 @ 23:38
    I'm new to all this, but these markets dont make sense one bit. From what i gather, they seem to rally on fed stimulis, and without this they are totally insolvent. Does that sound about right? Also with the advent off passive investing, and the likes of robinhood. Are we now in the era where market data in now irrelevent. And there is a detatchment from reality and the markets, or has it always been like this This is a great documentary about the roaring 20s, free money and a market that always goes up. It explains what i'm witnessing just now. 1929 Stock Market Crash and the Great Depression ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlSxPouPCIM
    • WM
      Will M.
      15 April 2020 @ 02:37
      Alan, good observation. Remember one goal here is trying to maintain confidence, for some reason the whole focus is the FED monetization of the debt and keeping the important private equity and junk companies all alive. This is going to get much worse.
  • JP
    John P.
    15 April 2020 @ 01:36
    I work in CRE and the markets are practically frozen. Most loans and sales postponed to the summer.
  • RG
    Razmig G.
    15 April 2020 @ 01:07
    Lol. About the possibility of keeping people at home, with no money & with guns. Does. That Sounds. Logical? Again lol IF you think that it'll be possible to rolling out checks during this period. Let's think logically for a second!
  • ag
    alan g.
    15 April 2020 @ 01:02
    What was the name off the fund you guys were talking about? Which will invest in crypto, thanks
    • ag
      alan g.
      15 April 2020 @ 01:03
      Its ok i found it :) https://u.today/andreessen-horowitz-to-launch-new-450-mln-cryptocurrency-fund
  • MH
    Maani H.
    15 April 2020 @ 00:41
    The $10 difference between WTI and Brent is due to front month for WTI being the May contract whereas Brent is trading on the June contract. Looking at June to June, differential is < $2
  • MP
    Michael P.
    15 April 2020 @ 00:37
    A 6% slowdown followed by a 4% rebound isn't a 10% swing is it? Isn't it a 4% rebound from 2020 GDP?
  • OC
    Otto C.
    15 April 2020 @ 00:23
    I really enjoy these updates, keep up the great work!!! I am so thankful that, because of Real Vision, I don't have to rely on manipulated reports from Goldman, JP Morgan and other bankers pushing their own agendas,
  • HP
    Hemanth P.
    15 April 2020 @ 00:13
    These are really helpful!
  • WW
    Will W.
    15 April 2020 @ 00:08
    You guys touched on the JPM call, which I thought was the more important two of the day,. and while there is no doubt that the fed's backstop of the credit markets has calmed things down, I am still surprised to the degree in which the stock market shrugged off a less than rosy call from Jamie. Granted the numbers may have been better than whisper numbers floating around,. but Jamie called the bottom last time with the his stock purchase, and what he said today on the call IMO should have knocked some of the steam out of the very strong move higher. Ash, on BTC, I hope you are right, but I still see a fundamental lack of demand and unwillingness for large pools of capital to be allocated on a serious basis.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    14 April 2020 @ 23:56
    Enjoy these videos as well. Like the recommendations about commercial RE markets as that is an area I don't believe Fed is playing. With the 50% retracement, which many technicians called and expected by many of us in the hope phase, the divergence from the people on Main Street is interesting. Visited 2 grocery stores today and hoarding is clearly still in in effect. And not just talking paper and cleaning products. Fresh vegetables and fruit, meat, flour, and pasta are still in short supply or out of stock. So while Wall Street sees us coming out of the woods in 6 months, Main Street is stocking up their freezers and pantries.
  • MB
    Matthew B.
    14 April 2020 @ 22:48
    Robin Wigglesworth's article in the FT is very good but it is wrong to say simply that the risk was on the balance sheets of the banks last time and it isn't this time so everything is fine with the banks. Last time around the risks *appeared* to have been removed from the banks' balance sheets through (inter alia) securitisation and the use of ABCP conduits, SIVs and CDS. The problem was that all of that alphabet soup was just one big arbitrage of the regulatory capital rules, and in fact the risk was held by the banks even though it didn't appear on their balance sheets at the start of the crisis. This time may be different of course, but we shouldn't forget that appearances can be deceptive.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      14 April 2020 @ 23:56
      Leveraged loans and CLOs are in bank balance sheets. That’s two areas to watch. I am not saying banks won’t get hit. They will. This is why I believe the Fed should stop dividend payments. But they won’t be the center of the action in my view. They have more capital and less risk relative to 08
  • TS
    Tom S.
    14 April 2020 @ 23:23
    Video and audio quality improved today, but there's still a lot of stutter-framing and associated clipped audio in Ed's material. Hope you are able to address the problem.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      14 April 2020 @ 23:53
      Working on it. One more fix left to try
  • GS
    Gerald S.
    14 April 2020 @ 23:43
    Ed, you mention that the Fed is not buy indiscriminately. I thought they were purchasing EFT such as JNK & HYG. Don't these funds potentially contain outright high risk debt?
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      14 April 2020 @ 23:51
      Yes. I believe JNK is only 45% BB. The rest is lower grade paper. Even so, the Fed is limited in how much it can buy. And it can’t buy individual names. I think that will matter. Already, we see that CCC and energy names have no liquidity
  • RA
    Robert A.
    14 April 2020 @ 23:44
    I see that RE was “touched on”, but my own view is that Commercial RE (and to a lesser extent Residential RE) is going to be at the epicenter of this crisis if it takes as long to incrementally open back up as it looks to be playing out (God help us if we have a second infection wave and have to lock back down). It just seems so obvious regarding the opening up timing that we have to 1) have adequate testing available and a protocol therefor, 2) adequate masks, protective gear and ventilators, 3) some sort of treatment option that lessens symptoms enough to allow significant home isolation/recovery and 4) and perhaps most importantly, give our hospitals and frontline care workers enough of a respite and “breather” so that they are not working in a war time/crisis mode (especially since there is SOME chance of a second surge in serious cases that come back into the health care exigency system). Mike Green brought up an excellent point re this crisis just being an accelerant of Trends already occurring, with Commercial RE being the one I am most concerned about. We have heard some analysis of the lending aspect and effect upon the Credit markets, but there is another whole deflationary and spending slowdown that is going to occur with RE investor loss of Equity coupled with draconian cash calls and non recourse financing overlays. The commercial RE meltdown due to Retail and Restaurant Lease defaults and restructurings is going to affect a larger swath of the economy and investor sentiment than people realize, We need to get some RE syndicators and investors to come on RV to discuss what their boots on the ground are seeing and explain just how we can expect the Commercial RE meltdown to unfold.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      14 April 2020 @ 23:51
      Watching news right now and they are talking about second waves hitting Asian countries right now and officials talking about scaling back again. While this seems obvious to me, clearly buyers in the market are not looking at this scenario impacting economic growth. On RE, have a good friend who does commercial RE. Will need to touch base with him again. Couple of weeks ago before Fed stepped in, he told me everything was freezing up and they were already looking at laying off people and cutting salaries. And his firm, which is big in the southeast, was already turning down projects because the cap rates were too low and had sold off some properties in 2019. So from his perspective, commercial office space was already overpriced before March 1.
  • DS
    David S.
    14 April 2020 @ 23:28
    Thanks again for the daily update. It really helps to hear both of your perspectives. The whole world is trying to figure out what will happen. It is apparent and agreed that no one knows. The collective wisdom of the market has no better idea either. It is at least bets by humans and machines with skin in the game, but let's stop saying the market thinks or the market is indicating. The market is merely the balance of cash flows in and out. The only thing it can tell you is the net of what investors are guessing at the moment. It is also funny that people are so excited about earnings beating expectations. If the earning per share expectation is down 30% from last year and the corporation is down 28% is this a reason to celebrate? Who made these guesses? In this case it is a bunch of people without skin in the game. Making and losing money are real outcomes with real-world consequences. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      14 April 2020 @ 23:30
      Living or dying from the Coronavirus is also a real-world consequence. Be Safe. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      14 April 2020 @ 23:40
      For clarity, this comment is not about the Daily Briefing It is a comment about the general news flow and some RV comments. Both of you are taking care not to make the above mistakes. Thanks. DLS
  • GR
    Grant R.
    14 April 2020 @ 23:39
    Thanks for putting the date on the video and audio.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    14 April 2020 @ 23:36
    Great to have this at market's day-end. Good job.
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    14 April 2020 @ 23:08
    Great job again Ash and Ed! These are wonderful and love that you moved them to reflect on markets after the close. Ed often references some sources he reads through during the day... Wondering if Ed or Ash can post those links discussed in a documents tab, similar to what is done with some other RV videos? That would allow those interested to dive deeper and think about the points made during these Daily Briefings.
  • cs
    chandra s.
    14 April 2020 @ 23:04
    Thanks Guys. Great Job.
  • DS
    David S.
    14 April 2020 @ 23:02
    As an aside - Is this the time for the President to pick a fight with the World Health Organization? Talk about a Red Herring. DLS
  • AP
    Andrew P.
    14 April 2020 @ 22:43
    Thanks for doing at 4PM. Can you discuss possible initial triggers for initiation of “real economy/insolvency phase” ?
  • MC
    Michael C.
    14 April 2020 @ 22:13
    Thanks for doing it at 4pm!
  • TS
    Tamim S.
    14 April 2020 @ 21:40
    Always looking forward to these.