Great stuff guys. Ed - if you could do some IT troubleshooting it’d be appreciated. Lot’s of cutting out in your recording.

Must see television. Quick question: what is the feeling on the intros? The content is OK, but I find myself skipping the 2 minutes to get to Ed and Ash.

Ed Harrison is a much better Subject Matter Expert than interviewee. During his interviews, he often stumbles through his questions and they commonly seem to be off topic. But his commentary during these daily updates are well reasoned and clearly communicated - very cogent analysis stated very well.

A study was done on Sweden in a university. Sweden is looking at 9m infections at worst. case. Up to 100 000 deaths. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133v1.full.pdf Short swedish korona.

A suggestion to both of you, could you rename the insolvency phase as a “realistic, informed hope phase” please? it sounds better at the lockdown mode we are living in. Ed you were trying that but Ash went again back to the insolvency terrible word. Raoul can continue using it, and will do it. Excelent as always, thanks RV

Not sure about using Iceland to judge other European countries regarding Covid19. Relatively small population in a very large country and generally regarded as a thoughtful and progressive country (not standard European mindset). Use is to compare against Canada (similar population density) or Martinique (similar population size).

The way I understood Raouls three stage model, what he called the "hope phase" is not necessarily what is happening now, but something that would play out over multiple months (in the great depression it was 6 months). If wee have a retracement to 62% and then another sell off - would that not still be part of the liquidation phase? Then a "hope phase would emerge with promises of "pent up demand" or a vaccine etc. Would love some clarification! Thanks!

You mentioned about a guy thaf is creating a 500 million crypto fund. Could you provide more information, please. I could not hear his name.

Appreciate the informative discussion. One point I might make; in comparing prompt WTI vs Brent prices, you may be overstating the difference. Currently they have different time-frames for delivery (May vs June). May WTI settled $20.11 June WTI settled $27.40 June Brent Settled $29.60 Brent's May cash prices were roughly $6.00 lower than the June Futures contract yesterday.

Loving these but found it interesting that AMZN’s new ATH wasn’t even acknowledged as the reason for the SPX move. Felt lacking in a way as that was a very obvious driver.

China will release its GDP numbers for Q1 on April 17. I think this will be an interesting data point, even though (or especially) taking into consideration that it will be the numbers that China decides the world to know. Also The Guardian had a long read on wtf just happened in the financial markets. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/14/how-coronavirus-almost-brought-down-the-global-financial-system

the IMF has stated that the -6% is if the lockdown ends this summer, and there are no new lockdowns. Also, you need a global response for exiting the lockdowns. They stated during the press conference (going by memory) that if barriers between countries are put up, if there is no collaborative global plan, or if the lockdowns repeat in the fall, they will have to revise the data downwards.

Very bright guy .. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator on BBC World News, CNBC Television, Business News Network, CBC, Fox Television and RT Television. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Didn't know Ash was a crypto guy, nice.

Lean off Singapore Airlines; when they return to service, it is time to open up. Geoffrey C

Really like these post market updates. Very useful content. The Hope phase continues...for now.

Really like these post market updates. Very useful content. The Hope phase continues...for now.

Can we stop calling it 'liquidity' - that ended long ago. It's just debt issuance by the Fed! Tear the mask off guys and gals!

Great review and discussion. Some of the points Ed makes are really good and insightful.

I'm new to all this, but these markets dont make sense one bit. From what i gather, they seem to rally on fed stimulis, and without this they are totally insolvent. Does that sound about right? Also with the advent off passive investing, and the likes of robinhood. Are we now in the era where market data in now irrelevent. And there is a detatchment from reality and the markets, or has it always been like this This is a great documentary about the roaring 20s, free money and a market that always goes up. It explains what i'm witnessing just now. 1929 Stock Market Crash and the Great Depression ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlSxPouPCIM

I work in CRE and the markets are practically frozen. Most loans and sales postponed to the summer.

Lol. About the possibility of keeping people at home, with no money & with guns. Does. That Sounds. Logical? Again lol IF you think that it'll be possible to rolling out checks during this period. Let's think logically for a second!

What was the name off the fund you guys were talking about? Which will invest in crypto, thanks

The $10 difference between WTI and Brent is due to front month for WTI being the May contract whereas Brent is trading on the June contract. Looking at June to June, differential is < $2

A 6% slowdown followed by a 4% rebound isn't a 10% swing is it? Isn't it a 4% rebound from 2020 GDP?

I really enjoy these updates, keep up the great work!!! I am so thankful that, because of Real Vision, I don't have to rely on manipulated reports from Goldman, JP Morgan and other bankers pushing their own agendas,

These are really helpful!

You guys touched on the JPM call, which I thought was the more important two of the day,. and while there is no doubt that the fed's backstop of the credit markets has calmed things down, I am still surprised to the degree in which the stock market shrugged off a less than rosy call from Jamie. Granted the numbers may have been better than whisper numbers floating around,. but Jamie called the bottom last time with the his stock purchase, and what he said today on the call IMO should have knocked some of the steam out of the very strong move higher. Ash, on BTC, I hope you are right, but I still see a fundamental lack of demand and unwillingness for large pools of capital to be allocated on a serious basis.

Enjoy these videos as well. Like the recommendations about commercial RE markets as that is an area I don't believe Fed is playing. With the 50% retracement, which many technicians called and expected by many of us in the hope phase, the divergence from the people on Main Street is interesting. Visited 2 grocery stores today and hoarding is clearly still in in effect. And not just talking paper and cleaning products. Fresh vegetables and fruit, meat, flour, and pasta are still in short supply or out of stock. So while Wall Street sees us coming out of the woods in 6 months, Main Street is stocking up their freezers and pantries.

Robin Wigglesworth's article in the FT is very good but it is wrong to say simply that the risk was on the balance sheets of the banks last time and it isn't this time so everything is fine with the banks. Last time around the risks *appeared* to have been removed from the banks' balance sheets through (inter alia) securitisation and the use of ABCP conduits, SIVs and CDS. The problem was that all of that alphabet soup was just one big arbitrage of the regulatory capital rules, and in fact the risk was held by the banks even though it didn't appear on their balance sheets at the start of the crisis. This time may be different of course, but we shouldn't forget that appearances can be deceptive.

Video and audio quality improved today, but there's still a lot of stutter-framing and associated clipped audio in Ed's material. Hope you are able to address the problem.

Ed, you mention that the Fed is not buy indiscriminately. I thought they were purchasing EFT such as JNK & HYG. Don't these funds potentially contain outright high risk debt?

I see that RE was “touched on”, but my own view is that Commercial RE (and to a lesser extent Residential RE) is going to be at the epicenter of this crisis if it takes as long to incrementally open back up as it looks to be playing out (God help us if we have a second infection wave and have to lock back down). It just seems so obvious regarding the opening up timing that we have to 1) have adequate testing available and a protocol therefor, 2) adequate masks, protective gear and ventilators, 3) some sort of treatment option that lessens symptoms enough to allow significant home isolation/recovery and 4) and perhaps most importantly, give our hospitals and frontline care workers enough of a respite and “breather” so that they are not working in a war time/crisis mode (especially since there is SOME chance of a second surge in serious cases that come back into the health care exigency system). Mike Green brought up an excellent point re this crisis just being an accelerant of Trends already occurring, with Commercial RE being the one I am most concerned about. We have heard some analysis of the lending aspect and effect upon the Credit markets, but there is another whole deflationary and spending slowdown that is going to occur with RE investor loss of Equity coupled with draconian cash calls and non recourse financing overlays. The commercial RE meltdown due to Retail and Restaurant Lease defaults and restructurings is going to affect a larger swath of the economy and investor sentiment than people realize, We need to get some RE syndicators and investors to come on RV to discuss what their boots on the ground are seeing and explain just how we can expect the Commercial RE meltdown to unfold.

Thanks again for the daily update. It really helps to hear both of your perspectives. The whole world is trying to figure out what will happen. It is apparent and agreed that no one knows. The collective wisdom of the market has no better idea either. It is at least bets by humans and machines with skin in the game, but let's stop saying the market thinks or the market is indicating. The market is merely the balance of cash flows in and out. The only thing it can tell you is the net of what investors are guessing at the moment. It is also funny that people are so excited about earnings beating expectations. If the earning per share expectation is down 30% from last year and the corporation is down 28% is this a reason to celebrate? Who made these guesses? In this case it is a bunch of people without skin in the game. Making and losing money are real outcomes with real-world consequences. DLS

Thanks for putting the date on the video and audio.

Great to have this at market's day-end. Good job.

Great job again Ash and Ed! These are wonderful and love that you moved them to reflect on markets after the close. Ed often references some sources he reads through during the day... Wondering if Ed or Ash can post those links discussed in a documents tab, similar to what is done with some other RV videos? That would allow those interested to dive deeper and think about the points made during these Daily Briefings.

Thanks Guys. Great Job.

As an aside - Is this the time for the President to pick a fight with the World Health Organization? Talk about a Red Herring. DLS

Thanks for doing at 4PM. Can you discuss possible initial triggers for initiation of “real economy/insolvency phase” ?

Thanks for doing it at 4pm!

Always looking forward to these.