Daily Briefing – April 23, 2020

Published on
April 23rd, 2020
Duration
29 minutes


Daily Briefing – April 23, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Nick Correa, Ed Harrison, and Roger Hirst

Published on: April 23rd, 2020 • Duration: 29 minutes

In this episode of the Real Vision Daily Briefing, Managing Editor Ed Harrison hosts Roger Hirst for a discussion about how emerging markets (EM) currencies and bonds act as a bellweather for global macro. They establish a framework for trading different macro views, and discuss whether helicopter money can prevent the unwinding of the commodity daisy chain.

Comments

Transcript

  • MH
    Martin H.
    24 April 2020 @ 04:53
    Bullet points at the conclusion would be a great addition if at all possible. Thanks for the insights guys!
    • Hv
      Hannah v.
      24 April 2020 @ 19:29
      You want them to walk your dog and do your dishes for you as well? At the wicked pace things are changing, they simply don’t have the time. How about taking one for the team and do a daily bullet point summary and post it in the comments? That’d be helpful!!
    • MH
      Martin H.
      25 April 2020 @ 00:46
      Hannah v. Who ask you and WTF would you know? If you had the notes it would be a five minute job! Do run along and let RV talk for themselves if they are going to.
  • AS
    Alexandru S.
    24 April 2020 @ 00:12
    I thkink tanker rates for transport vs storage are diffrent, storrage is much lower, no oil consumption needed to move the ship, probably smaller crew etc.
    • WM
      Wolfgang M.
      24 April 2020 @ 12:47
      Rates are set by demand and supply though, the costs to operate the vessels dont really matter in the current environment.
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    24 April 2020 @ 11:33
    There are rumors that Swedens government investigate the possibility to buy stocks in "bad" companies.
  • NT
    Nicholas T.
    24 April 2020 @ 11:23
    Great discussion, thank you. Really summed up the major unknown overhanging any investment play right now: the Fed is protecting the stock market.
  • PB
    Paul B.
    24 April 2020 @ 00:12
    Here in Aussie our Dickhead Government have allowed everyone to Cash out 10K from their Super Accounts. Most people have these Shitty ETF's...They are having to sell down stock just to pay out the Cash...What a total fucking mess....Just how long can these Fucktards keep kicking the Can...Surely the Can is about get get run over by a Huge Truck!
    • DS
      David S.
      24 April 2020 @ 00:30
      I feel for you! You are on the frontline now, but we will be joining you soon. DLS
    • JL
      James L.
      24 April 2020 @ 10:13
      I second this!
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    24 April 2020 @ 07:06
    Ed I also got a phone call from a friend who said he heard a great call to buy ENQUEST PLC the day before oil crashed and he has not talked about stocks since late 1999 before dotcom crash 2000 my thought was this market is going down and not just oil but all stocks when someone like him talk about buying stocks. I am just someone who is interested in markets and was lucky to buy oil stocks in 1998 just because I liked the industry I am in RealVision to learn and I am glad Raoul and Grant got me into RV, but now I am in cash and one Gold Royalty company I wait to market to turn down. Great as always keep up the good work I learn a lot. It is not just oil I have seen Europe's biggest Iron ore producer Swedish state-owned LKAB stockpiling Iron ore have not seen this great stockpile since the 80s 1Q was great but I think 2Q will be bad. They are a small player produce around 30 million tonnes per year bnut Germany buys a lot and that gives you an idea
  • GT
    Guillaume T.
    24 April 2020 @ 06:22
    Love those daily briefings. Thumbs up on Nick for a short and clean introduction!
  • JT
    Jarl T.
    24 April 2020 @ 05:43
    These daily briefings are superb. Can’t give enough credit to all of you. As a PM I use lots of your topics in my work. Thanks to you all.
  • sc
    sung c.
    24 April 2020 @ 04:34
    Completely agree with Roger on the point about buybacks. After the 2008 recession, corporate buybacks accounted for much of the momentum supporting stock prices higher and higher up. this time, in spite of the exorbitant Fed pumping, companies will not be able to use the loans for buying back stock, which means the rise in stock price will have to come from actual buyers purchasing stocks based upon fundamentals rather than simply chasing the price. There is however, the continued practice of buying ETFs such as SPY, DIA, etc.,by the general public and the entrenched 401K system, which may push the underlying stocks higher regardless of their actual P/E valuations.
  • sc
    sung c.
    24 April 2020 @ 04:16
    I watched the .DJI drop 400 points in a matter of minutes after news of Gilead's Remdesivir did not perform well on its first trials. It proved to me how much the market is bouncing on hopium over real news, such as 26 million unemployment and Covid numbers still extremely high for U.S.
  • PD
    Peter D.
    23 April 2020 @ 23:47
    Once again: the Daily Briefing with this team is a great podcast format. I shut off CNBC at 4:00 pm.
    • PB
      Paul B.
      24 April 2020 @ 00:17
      Talk about Chalk and Cheese
    • us
      udaiveer s.
      24 April 2020 @ 03:00
      what is CNBC? I switched to twitter
  • JS
    Jim S.
    24 April 2020 @ 02:45
    I agree with Roger, the Fed will be using equities in the next big pullback. With credit growth low,, the Fed needs to keep the asset bubble going so that we don’t pop the $70 trillion credit bubble we are living in.
  • OO
    Oliver O.
    24 April 2020 @ 02:25
    Roger, when you mention sabre rattling to get oil prices up, are you referring to import tariffs or something like a kinetic conflict with Iran (Trump tweets about shooting boats)?
  • ZW
    Zi W.
    24 April 2020 @ 02:12
    No wine today, Roger?
  • ns
    niall s.
    23 April 2020 @ 22:43
    Could we get Ed’s sisters friend on the show please , we could use a good trade idea .
    • AN
      Andrew N.
      23 April 2020 @ 23:22
      Didn't Ed's sister's friend recommend speculating on oil prices using questionable derivatives? By all means, my friend, go right ahead. You might get lucky. :-) I think Roger did suggest shorting emerging market equities.
    • DS
      David S.
      23 April 2020 @ 23:47
      Why speculate. Try to hold on to any equity you have. DLS
    • JF
      John F.
      24 April 2020 @ 02:06
      Haha
  • MG
    Mac G.
    24 April 2020 @ 01:31
    Claiming that an act of the CCP is a “force majeure” is literally blasphemy.
  • OC
    Otto C.
    24 April 2020 @ 01:09
    Nick, thanks for digging deeper on how the COVID tests are so diverse. Ed and Roger, you keep raising the bar. Thank you!!!
  • DS
    David S.
    23 April 2020 @ 23:56
    Good job as always. The Daily Briefing is by definition short term. In the longer term the market is in complete denial. A chicken will run around for a good while after its head is cut off. The Euro is also in denial. Bureaucrats in Brussels will keep it on a ventilator by printing money, buying stocks, and hoping for a miracle to keep their paychecks. Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands cannot bail out the Euro. They simply do not have enough money or borrowing power even if they had the will - which they do not. Germany, Austria and the Netherlands are hoping that they can keep their own heads above water. The poorer nations in the Euro will not leave as they would end any hope for assistance. America is in terrible shape also. The Fed cannot be the Economy. City states like Singapore will have to make alliances as they cannot defend themselves. China like the US will make it through in some form. I find it difficult to believe that the smart money is not just keeping its head down and waiting for the new normal to appear. We will end up in Mr. Pelosky’s Tri-Polar World, but I do not think that ETFs are the way to go. I don't even know how many $US and how much gold it will take to get to the new normal. Since everyone wants a positive note, the UK is trying an Oxford vaccine for the COVIN-19 in a human trial. Let's hope for the best. Keep your health and money safe. DLS
    • PB
      Paul B.
      24 April 2020 @ 00:16
      ETF's are the Canary in the Coal Mine in my opinion...A good deal of them don't even have funds in what they are tracking...The Superannuation Industry will be lucky to get 20 cents in the dollar after all the Liquidation takes place and it will take place
    • DS
      David S.
      24 April 2020 @ 00:33
      This is a real tragedy for everyone's retirement savings. DLS
  • Cb
    Chris b.
    23 April 2020 @ 23:34
    Oh My so much back and forth on not knowing what to do. This is easy buy gold and short the S&P.
    • PB
      Paul B.
      24 April 2020 @ 00:20
      Wanna have a good lead time on the Short...Dangerous game to fight the FED's Ponzi Scheme
  • AD
    Alexandre D.
    23 April 2020 @ 23:37
    Ed’s been investing in artwork - approved !
    • PB
      Paul B.
      24 April 2020 @ 00:18
      I've been buying Diamonds pretty darn cheap lately..Dont know much about the Art World, but its much the same thing just different I guess
  • AK
    Adam K.
    23 April 2020 @ 23:34
    I know this is kinda like beating a dead horse, but can you please touch on solvency for Euro banks? Particularly DB? I'd love to know whether you guys think the inevitable increase in bankruptcies of people/firms will cause the big implosion we've all been waiting for. I mean, shit, the Euro bank chart has been breaking down hard as Real Vision has posted around on some of the socials and videos, I just don't quite understand what it all means for the derivatives books DB holds etc. Sorry if this isn't the right place for it, but thank you for the consideration.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      24 April 2020 @ 00:05
      Hi Adam, thanks for this. Tomorrow on Real Vision, Mark Blyth and Adam Tooze will be talking how the European banking sector is getting pushed to the brink (among other things) - stay tuned for that. I'll try and fit some analysis into the first section of the show. If not tomorrow, soon. In the meantime, check out an interview Ed Harrison did with the NYT's David Enrich, who *literally* wrote the book on Deutsche Bank: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview/videos/deutsche-bank-on-the-brink-of-disaster
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    23 April 2020 @ 23:13
    Brilliant as always. Thank you
  • MT
    Mark T.
    23 April 2020 @ 23:02
    I've been wondering as the Covid 19 news cycle run ends, what will the media focus on? It seems that the use of taxpayer money (theoretically) to bailout corporations and breaking the law in order to do it is a good story that has legs and can really play well to the masses. To most finance nerds like myself, I think we're outraged at the moral hazard it introduces and the sense that it's socialism for corporations or those who know or pay the right politicians. Meanwhile, the average American gets table scraps, if they are lucky.