Comments
Transcript
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PCGreat conversation. In general I agree with the relative difference between Northern Europe and regions with laggards such as Southern Europe and big parts of he US. However, I do not believe that the service sector in Northern Europa and in particular in major regions such as Germany and the Benelux can bounce back to 75-80% of normality by the end of Q2. We talk about economies 'opening up' but in practice this process is really slow. There will not be a material bounce in sectors such as hotels, restaurant, events, movie theaters, outdoor entertainment etc simply because they are not allowed or greatly impaired by travel restrictions. Other services like retail and non-critical healthcare will face bottlenecks due to imposed social distancing measures. On top of that you have parts of the population, in particular elderly with the deepest pockets, that will not engage as before because of fear for the virus that is still a thread. So overall, I am not confident that we see a significant rebound in Europe's economy (and its markets) in the near term. Having a more long term view does make me bullish about Northern Europe. The social safety net does save jobs. For example, in Belgium there is now a big deal because one of the retailers fired '24' people. It looks silly in comparision with the US. Most of the jobs are still protected by governement measures and temporary lay offs backed up by the social system. This is bad for governement debt but at least it helps people keeping there job and most of their spending power. Firing 'trillion dollar' bazookas in the pockets of the 1% doesn't really help to keep the system stable. Of course, I do believe major lay offs in Europe will happen later but they are less 'forced' compared to the US. So a restart is much easier in Europe. If, at that time, the FX markets also help the euro a bit, the economic rebound could go much faster than in the US. Regards, Peter.
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RDGuys - great trading perspective.... It would be good to get a more granular about the implications (short and long term) of the FED loading up the balance sheet. What FED balance sheet specifica indictors to watch that will ultimately rotate the market. Surely they can't simply load up the balance sheet and nationalise everything without there being an adverse outcome. Cheers guys!
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wjYet the biggest buyer was companies buying back stock. Lets see what happens. Remember there are many bear market rallies.
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STDidn’t learn a thing, bring back Roger Hirst as well as Raoul and some one like Grant Williams
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scS&P 500 P/E is higher now than it was before the March sell-off and before the 26 million jobless claim (so far). That shows how overvalued things are right now and says it all about how we should view the markets at this moment. Enough said!
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rsI gave it a thumbs down only because of Tony Greer. Ash is spot on. And brilliant. tony missed one of the biggest bond rallies in recent times. Not going to listen to someone that missed something so obvious as per Raoul’s insight.
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CHThe first 70% of this video is simply a rehash of what any regular viewer of the Daily Briefing already knows- pretty much a waste of time. The rest is just a guess of what might happen by Tony which is sort of what everyone else on RV has been saying about the price action of the equity market. No new insights here. Bring on Druck or Jonesy.
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CDloved the comments on sentiment from Tony. Absolutely correct. New bears joining old bears freaking out. It has always been the same in every sell off. The market is a forward looking price finding machine. Whether any one individual thinks it's too expensive, too cheap or simply going to go sideways is a function of your very own bias on the speed of a return to normal or even, what is normality? Raoul was a bear long before C19 because of his analysis of business cycle (time) and the Fed's heretofore lack of recognition of role of the USD (global base currency). Now he has another item to add to his prevailing bias. Sorry, whether he is right or wrong has little impact in the short term on the direction of the market. Everyone needs to look themselves in the mirror and recognize their own bias and then trade. They will have a better p/l experience as a result.
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SDTony has given me 2 reasons for the rally: 1. Sentiment 2. Technicals Thank you very much Tony, Let us see how long those 2 reasons will last....
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JAThe regular hosts have better exchanges and chemistry with concise and focused talking points IMO. The guest seem to do a lot of rambling, even though he provided some good insight from a trading perspective.
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paI appreciate hearing his alternative perspective. However I think his logic is slightly flawed saying that the FED is the sole reason for the large retracement. What if that is just a narrative that is being pushed in order to justify the large upward move? This in turn will trap new and old investors into thinking "oh everything is fine," and they buy back into the "Fed has my back" narrative. Which in turn only adds more fuel to the fire once the rug is pulled. Many recessions have had large retracements (return to normal phase) because they became oversold from a technical standpoint. It still would have happened as it happened this year as in all previous recessions. I think Roger Hirst mentioned this, and whether it actually plays out, will be the thousand dollar question. The numbers are still fundamentally fudged, and when that reality sinks in.. the insolvency Raoul talks about will take place.
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DGTony is a Fed pumper that has been conditioned into this mindset that has been drilled into peoples heads over the the last 20 years that the Fed "IS" the market. Really I'm not a fan as this is the common mind set out there.
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MTGreat intro today Jack.. don't sell yourself short, you're a heavy hitter too! Great segment all around.
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DWVery enjoyable interview. As I read some of the comments below, it seems that some viewers may not understand Tony’s trader perspective. He’s not “bullish “ on the SP500. He clearly says that the next move might be up, might be down and that he’ll trade it which ever way it goes. He does cite his reasons why he believes that the next move might be higher but that doesn’t mean that he’s simply bullish on the market the way that many CNBC commentators are. As a trader, he’s maintaining an open mind about the direction the market might go. I’d enjoy hearing from him again periodically.
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JBExcellent guest, so glad to see someone with a new take on what is happening in the markets. I may disagree with the guest but he is way smarter than I am and very glad to hear his take.
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TPGreer is a solid observer and participant in the markets, and it shows. While I agree with his short-term thesis that the market will pop off the Fed going QE-Infinity, I also know from prior examples that the half-life of Fed intervention tends to shorten with every round they perform. My guess is the 1929 analog is very much intact, so we could get the upward swing Greer discusses, but into the teeth of a multi-year grind down to new lows once its done. Nice update, good stuff.
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RSI love your Daily Briefing. That is my go-to for a realistic grounded point of view. Ash, Ed, Rodger and Raul are awesome. This guy Tony was like watching CNBC. This is the first Daily Briefing I turned off. I couldn’t take it any more when Tony was talking about how he went long after he received phone calls (sentiment) combined with his view of the technicals. He was also explaining the disconnect between SPX and the economy as having to do with sentiment and technicals. Tony seemed to try to pump himself up with his ‘brilliant’ ability to read the sentiment/technical. I call BS. It is 100% the Fed adding trillions of liquidity and blowing a 4th bubble in an attempt to stop the 3rd bubble from taking down the global economy. SPX would not have stopped its slide if the Fed didn’t promise unlimited trillions. If the Fed stops tomorrow, then Tony's long will get wiped out, regardless of his claim of expertly reading sentiment/technicals. Why did markets jump? The REAL VISION is simple: The Fed pumped in trillions of liquidity with a promise of unlimited additional liquidity and SPX responded by retracing to the 0.50 Fib and may hit the 0.618 Fib (just like it almost always does in a bear market). That first retrace is an easy obvious call after the Fed announcement. The difficult call is when will the Fed lose control. Each time the Fed injects liquidity the moment they stop the market falls (2000, QE1,2,3). So, is the Fed going to continue pumping 2 trillion per month? Doubt it. Leading indicators from @LanceRoberts and @BittelJulien clearly show the EPS will be dropping 50-90%. What, is Tony telling us that a 40x or 60x is a fair multiple? The Fed may even juice the market higher than the 0.618 Fib, but a reckoning is coming. Raul is right, its going to be bad.
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mBTony is great. I definitely froze during crash. I’ve learned tho. I like the early part of daily brief a lot. More info on daily news is great.
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HAGood stuff !
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YBWonderful point of view! I recommend signing up for TG's newsletter to get more of these. It is a great way to start the day! Also, apparently TG has tattoos on his arms... :)
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PCHi Ash. It was great being mentioned in your briefing yesterday! While you study the model, I want to give you a few insights that I got while studying it myself. I believe it is more important to understand the relations between infections, hospitalizations and deaths than having a very accurate prediction. Some important things are not at all sensitive to the input data. Peak infections always happen a few days after a lock-down is installed. If the data does not show this, it is because (1) the lock-down is not effective and R > 1, (2) it is only partially done early on or (3) there are changes in the number of tests done. Examples are: Sweden (1), US (2,3) and Belgium (3). Belgium increased their testing capacity significantly two weeks after the lock-down. In particular because of (3) it is difficult to use the number of confirmed cases to study the epidemic. It is better to work with data that has better 'ground truth': hospitalizations and deaths. Peak deaths happen a few days before peak hospitalizations and based on the data I use typically about 20-30 days after installing the lock-down. It is a shallow top so you need to look at the average and not the data of a particular day. In Belgium we reached it around April 15 and in the US we are close to it today but there are big differences on state level. US data is heavily influenced by NY data. Also, because states are responsible for the lock-down, it is better to work with the states to model the future. One of the most important factors to study is ratio between number of inections at the end of a lock-down and the start. Assuming that R during lock-down is around 0.7-0.8, this is about 40-50%. It may be a bit less or more depending on the effectiveness of the lock-down but the main conclusion is that you have still a heavily infected population when deaths peak. Ending the lock-down at that point and as such bringing R0 significantly above 1 would be dramatic, you will go to peak infections in a matter of a days to a few weeks and likely overshoot due to delays in the data coming in. It will be worse than prior to the lock-down because the infections are now much more homogeneously spread. So what needs to be done? The number of infections will halve every 2-3 weeks so if you want to start from a much more lower base (say 10-15%), you need to wait 4-6 weeks after reaching peak deaths before opening the economy. Or you could do it a bit earlier but much more gradual (opening businesses and shops step by step). In any case, social distancing remains important and monitoring is crucial to make sure that you don't need to install a lock-down again. This seems to be the plan in Belgium. A great article about how to do it is the 'hammer and the dance': https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 Regards, Peter.
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NPInteresting chat, Trader Vs Macro. We need Tony on once a week for a completely different view of the market optics. Cheers.
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PCTony is simply great. Viewers here who are not traders might feel the opposite, but you ought to be warned just by his four screen setup on the desk. I especially love his long description of what happened this week. And really appreciate that Ash didn't even try to interrupt him. This is true RealVision spirit. Can we get Tony every Friday?
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CLGreat briefing. Thank you.
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DSThis was a valuable contrast to the normal daily briefing. The normal bias in the daily briefings of late has been bearish, which I get. However, Tony shared important insights that explain the bullish case, which we need to hear and understand if we're going to keep an open mind and be profitable trading this market right now.
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KAI don’t understand why I can watch Netflix, live Bloomberg television, YouTube, etc with no problems despite living with a fairly slow internet connection, but half the time I want to watch a RV video, I get “timed out, unable to download“ messages. I’ve tried a dozen times to watch this video this morning and am unable to get it going.
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ABHere's a link to the epidemic calculator I was referring to: https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html I've already reached out to the programmer who coded it — and I hope to have a blog post up on it for everyone to read early next week.
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PJAsh, on your game, good as ever! I haven't always followed Tony's view so closely as he's (or appears to be) a short / mid term trader with a view / position that correlates (not my bag from an investment POV). But it takes different views to make a picture so feel he's always worth listening too, especially to get a view of the potential short term moves. Must be a good guy at heart if he's a Tom Petty fan :)
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RWBe great to hear from tony every Friday. Great summary of what’s really happening in markets as opposed to a lot of the fintwit pitchforks and doom loop crowd
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RKThanks Tony!
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TCGood view from Tony. Makes a change from the normal moaning without any specific plan
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SPFed is not buying all high yield, just fallen angels that had BBB rating as of March 22nd, and then get downgraded, e.g. Ford. And no CARES act recipients will be eligible. “Eligible ETFs. The Facility also may purchase U.S.-listed ETFs whose investment objective is to provide broad exposure to the market for U.S. corporate bonds. The preponderance of ETF holdings will be of ETFs whose primary investment objective is exposure to U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds, and the remainder will be in ETFs whose primary investment objective is exposure to U.S. high-yield corporate bonds.” Clear focus is on investment grade, and those that were investment grade and get knocked down.
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MCSummary: Chase the tape and then.......chase the tape some more.
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KESentiment > Liquidity The October to February rally was a liquidity fueled gong show that eventually tipped over because sentiment changed due to the virus. This bounce is also a liquidity fueled gong show that will tip over when sentiment changes due to something big enough to get into the heads of traders. I think Tony already identified what that will be, oil. The demand destruction was so large and swift that I don’t think producers can shut in enough as quickly as needed to balance the market. Oil has another scare in it and I don’t think markets will be so quick to shrug it off next time. Tony’s views were very insightful.
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sWSooo Funny. The start sound to your daily briefing sounds like True blood TV series. Orsem! Jack Farley Mate you are impressively priceless in your enthusiastic assessment of current doom and gloom. Loved It !
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CWwould prefer hear about what is driving the charts rather than technical charts themselves.
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JPI hear all of Tony's points about sentiment shifts and everyone being bearish means stocks will bounce; but seriously, what recession ever lasted 1 month? Even with money printing, what recession ever lasted 1 month? Honestly, bitcoin bear markets typically have been longer.
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VWWhere was this interview two weeks ago? Hahahaha!
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ANGreat conversation. My sense is that the market is currently being levitated by a combination of the Fed and Optimism. The effect of optimism can be seen in the gyrations surrounding remdesivir (the Gilead drug) but its doesn't seem to be based on anything substantial. Keep your eye on Georgia in about 10-14 days. As they relax restrictions, I expect that we'll see a spike in cases, and the fact that this economic shutdown will be with us much longer than the market now thinks will be unavoidable, puncturing the Optimism. I predict that market will react negatively.
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SLNot one mention of price discovery and the risk of blindly buying into a market that believes it's being supported by Jpow's printer.
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DHGreat to see @TgMacro! Although I am not a trader, I love his perspectives. A few more grey hairs in that beard, Tony??!
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BEGood Job Jack!
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HPThat was so excellent. Shed a lot of light into why there is a disconnect between the markets and the economy. Please Tony in more!! Loved it.
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MCProbably my favorite briefing - great to hear a traders view of what's going on and .the seeming disconnect between 'the tape' and the economy. PS: 100% right on modelling, I spent a bit of time looking at climate modelling. Very small changes to the input and assumptions cause wild changes in outputs. Not making a case for or against climate change but pointing out its NOT settled science the way some would have you believe. Its modelling and we need to challenge "the experts" more across all disciplines - finance, climate, epidemiology - and listen to differing viewpoints.
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RAAsh, Ed and Roger, don’t know who is “Producing” the DB and maybe it is a collaborative effort, but bringing in a high caliber guest like this once a week is a really nice touch. Maybe don’t stick to a once /week schedule and rather use the RV “secret curative sauce” and bring in an apropos guest to speak about a really timely topic that has come up (for instance, in a big Vol spike week/event bring in a top Vol guy like Chris Cole if you could get him...if there is a big huge credit BK or restructure event that surprises and hits the Market hard maybe being in a Jim Grant...or if there is a huge commodity event like the Oil front month down 35% event maybe bring in someone who knows the next commodity that might get hit or a Fracker banking/credit guy). Here is the caveat/problem though (and I’m sure you have thought of this)—there aren’t many Tony Greers (I’m a huge TG fan) who are articulate, knowledgeable, organized and succinct. If you bring in someone that isn’t proven with the ability to look into the camera and “go” with no “Umms” and deliver what we need it will destroy a DB (no matter how wealthy, proven in their area of expertise and revered)—if they aren’t an A+ list communicator it will ruin that particular DB show! BTW, I’d keep a guy like Keith McCullough in your back pocket...and oh, there is a pretty sharp communicator type down on Little Cayman that I recall seeing from time to time and his Macro Insider buddy who hangs in Vail, Co....and there is a pretty sharp lady that goes by the name of Stephanie Pomboy. What I’m trying to say is that you came up with a GREAT guest concept—now don’t blow it by overusing it or God forbid putting the wrong guy or girl on.
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WMGreat conversation. Thanks guys. Have a good weekend!
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SSMore Tony Greer on RV please. Missed him.
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WWThat was useful to hear, reluctantly bullish in the short term based upon sentiment, fed, and technicals. Personally, I can't get there based upon the disconnect which Ash highlighted between the S&P and Main Street and will continue with preservation of capital and my personal balance sheet.
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TDThat was great. I hope we see Tony more often.
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CSThe game is rigged, at least with a casino, you know your odds.
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TPLoved the introduction by Buffer Jr. Let's get ready to ruuuuumble!
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TSAlways looking forward to these.
JACK FARLEY: Welcome to the Real Vision daily briefing. It's Friday, April 24th.
We've got Real Vision's Ash Bennington standing by with Tony Greer of TG Macro, and they're ready to give their macro analysis.
But before we go to them, let's go over the biggest stories in markets, as well as on the Coronavirus pandemic.
Starting off with some Coronavirus data, the US confirmed death count has surpassed the 50,000 threshold out of close to 900,000 confirmed cases that we've now had. That's certainly a grim milestone. This comes at a time when President Trump has signed off on the most recent relief package, and states like Georgia are beginning to reopen businesses today.
While in South America, the total confirmed case count has reached 100,000, the majority of which in Brazil, Peru, as well as in Ecuador, where the official death count exceeds 500.
But it's likely that the true number of deaths from COVID in Ecuador is actually much, much higher. According to the BBC, from the beginning of March until mid April, just one province alone, Guayas, reported almost 15,000 deaths. And that's a death rate seven times higher than normal.
The lack of testing and medical supplies has imposed incredible burden on Ecuador, which might be one of the hardest hit countries in Latin America when it comes to the Coronavirus.
Going back to the States now where jobless claims continue to pile up. Yesterday, the cumulative tally coming in at 26 million. Some of these jobs, as we know, are in the service sector. But employees who work at startups are feeling the burden of the shutdown as well.
According to layoffs.fyi, a database that tracks job losses, over 30,000 employees from over 300 tech startups have been laid off since March 11th. The layoffs were concentrated in the San Francisco Bay Area, unsurprisingly, and we're already hearing rumors that the real estate market there is under significant distress. Revenues across almost every industry are taking a serious hit. And with venture capital drying up, it's unlikely that any of these startups recover anytime soon, if at all.
In market news, the S&P 500 is getting quite pricey. If you look at the forward price-to-earnings ratio, over the past month, constituent equities have been bid up, even as the picture for those company's future earnings continues to get worse, making the S&P 500 the most expensive it's been since the 2001 dot.com bubble.
In Europe, equities had a bad day. After yesterday's dismal economic indicators, dovetailed with the ECB president Christine Lagarde's dire warning to EU ministers that GDP for the eurozone could contract by as much as 15%. So far the ECB has been relatively restrained. It's been the dog that hasn't barked, at least compared to the Fed. But it's forecasted to take its QE to the next level. And its recent loosening of collateral requirements has caused some to speculate that it will soon join the Federal Reserve and start buying junk bonds outright as well.
For a more in-depth look at Europe, you might want to check out today's interview with Mark Blyth and Adam Tooze. It's a great conversation about the ECB and the Fed, as well as about fragility in the global economy in general.
And lastly, here are some stories that we didn't have time to cover today. JC Penney is on the brink of bankruptcy, while the Brazilian stock market tumbled today as justice minister Sergio Mauro resigned. And lastly, the insurance industry, worldwide, is bracing for some of the biggest losses in recorded history.
Maybe we'll dive into these stories next week. But for now, it's time to go to our heavy hitters. We have our very own Ash Bennington hosting the great Tony Greer as he makes his glorious return to Real Vision. I know Tony and Ash have some very strong thoughts on everything that's going on in the market, particularly as it relates to the relationship between the equity rally and central bank liquidity. I can't wait to hear what they have to say.
Guys, take it away.
ASH BENNINGTON: Thanks, Jack. It's Friday, April 24, 2020, just after market close in New York. I'm Ash Bennington for Real Vision. This is the Real Vision daily briefing.
Today, we're joined by our first external guest in the history of the show. He's been a host. He's been a guest. He's been a friend of the platform for many years, Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator. Welcome, Tony.
TONY GREER: Thanks for having me, Ash.
ASH BENNINGTON: Thanks for joining us.
TONY GREER: Yeah, we had quite a week. Right? You know, to me, I've looked at the market as trading on a combination of sort of technicals, optics, and sentiment. And this week was another week of that, I feel. We came in after the weekend, and there were some bad optics for sure. Right? We had sort of the price of oil started falling on Sunday night.
You know, the news over the weekend was about the virus, which probably more deaths than we would have liked to hear about, seeing as we're supposed to be coming down the back end of the curve now. Right? So the numbers for the optics were kind of worse than expected.
And there was news circulating about the failure shortcomings of the PPP and SBA loans that were going around. And everybody was getting a little, you know, you started off Monday with that disgruntled feeling, you know. And then we walked face first into that super wild, super-contango trade in oil. Right?
So the optics of oil going down, going negative, people struggling to comprehend exactly what the mechanics of that are, are terrible optics for risk. Right? So we started off with a week where everybody was derisking. You know, everybody pretty much understands that the tanks at Cushing are full. Saudi Arabia continues to send supply over here to exacerbate the storage issue.
The pipelines are full so that you can't even move oil to and from Cushing. And if you're along the front contract there, and you don't want it, you will certainly pay somebody to take it off your hands. So I'm sure everybody's gone through that by this point in the week, but I just thought I'd mention it because it's interesting.
So what we saw, at the beginning of the week, was what I'm calling, I'm identifying really as this longer lockdown rotation that we're in. Right? So we saw we're going to be locked down longer than expected. Obviously, we've got a big demand problem to deal with first, so oil would fit that description. You know, we saw weakness in typical sectors, utilities, industrials, transports, all of that stuff straight down. And it ran us into a pretty big de-risking day on Tuesday, where we saw a little bit of a big cap meltdown, where finally, Apple and Google went down.
The funniest thing about this tape is that the equity market can be such a lagging indicator sometimes. You know, like it took oil to go to minus $25 to derail the big cap retracement rally in tech that was going on. So we finally saw it on a Tuesday. And you really can't hide the rotation of what's going on at 40 vol. You look up at the end of the day, and it's crystal clear.
You know, Monday and Tuesday we had energy literally getting slaughtered alongside the optics of the May crude oil contract coming off. And then it went into an opposite situation on Wednesday where now the law of small numbers started to play in crude oil's favor, where once everybody got the May contract out of their system, once you read that the USO ETF had rolled mostly into June, mostly into August, everybody was now running from this issue. And now crude oil is rallying in large denominations from it's, you know $7, $8, $11 lows back into the teens to more reasonable numbers.
And what that does automatically is it gets the risk appetite going again. Right? What it does when gold is rallying alongside it, I thought was really interesting this week, that sort of gold took the lead as the animal spirits leader. You know, gold all of a sudden, you know, when you look at stocks like Newmont and American Barrick Gold that are gapping open higher, there's fear of missing out buying going on, in all of a sudden gold mining stocks, it looks like there may have been a serious portfolio reallocation or something like that. Or maybe it's big short coming. But it seems like people want to be on the gold stocks, and go with this breakout.
So that's sort of got the markets back into accepting a little bit more risk this week, accepting that what is going on at the Fed and their balance sheet is going to actually have an effect. And you saw stocks get back on their feet in the middle of the week by Wednesday and Thursday,
Thursday, once again, we had to live through those euro PMIs. We had to live through the shock and awe economic data of the virus lockdown now. We saw services PMIs over in Europe into the teens, which is, quite frankly, terrifying. You know, it's terrifying, but at least we know that it's temporary.
You know, it's terrifying because we're trying to price in a recession or a depression, and we would like this to be a recession, and one that's over quickly if we can restart the economy.
Unfortunately, there's going to be a lot of economic damage that's already done.
ASH BENNINGTON: Right.
TONY GREER: Also Thursday we got the labor force data, another 4 and 1/2 million unemployment claims, which now gets us to 26 million over the five weeks. With the labor force, Ash, at 165 million people in the first place, 25 million is a big divot to be applying for unemployment claims. The population of that is equal to the population of the 10 biggest cities in the country, just for some scale. So imagine all of that being unemployed and trying to find their way back after this. It's going to be quite an economic feat to behold.
What we also saw on Thursday that was really important for me, who is still playing a sort of bullish bench to the retracement, we saw some bodies float to the top. And what I mean by that is we lived through a period of very severe and extreme de-leveraging in that period from call it the end of February into the beginning of March, when the S&P bottomed down at 21.75. And put in some extreme tick prints, which are the tick indexes measured exactly how much of the market is trading on the bid versus how much is trading on the offer. And when it puts in a number of consecutive huge numbers on the downside, you know that these are liquidations that are happening in the markets.
And we had a period there where we had 10 out of 15 days with tick prints bigger than minus 1,500. And those are 10 extreme, extreme sessions that really happen once or twice a quarter. And here we go. We had 10 out of 15 sessions of selling. And that's why it was so extreme.
But this week, at least, we learned what it was all about. Headlines came across the tape. We saw the SAC 10 traders lost 200 million euro in the virus route.