Daily Briefing – August 13, 2020

Published on
August 13th, 2020
Duration
33 minutes


Daily Briefing – August 13, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Peter Cooper, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: August 13th, 2020 • Duration: 33 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss secular stagnation, initial jobless claims, and the fiscal cliff. They begin by exploring Ed's takeaways from his interviews with Milton Berg and Charlie McElligott, their contrarian stances, and how price signal distortion is pointing toward secular stagnation. Ed and Ash also parse the differences between seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims and how the treatment of the data shapes the way an investor understands employment trends during the pandemic. They wrap up their discussion by considering USPS funding, the lapse in fiscal aid, and the significant political tail risks ahead for this election cycle. In the intro, Peter Cooper reviews the latest initial jobless claims numbers and the plight of essential workers.

Comments

Transcript

  • DB
    Daniel B.
    19 August 2020 @ 12:55
    Dems just need to put politics aside and allow stimulus to flow. Game playing can come later.
  • MH
    Matthew H.
    14 August 2020 @ 20:39
    I rate the Ad, Ash combo. Always informative. Plus Ed has the Euro view too and can synthesise accordingly
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    14 August 2020 @ 01:52
    Ed... In Trump's daily news conference today he was asked about his willingness to give the Post Office the cash and he quickly indicated that it would be no problem if the Dems can come to the table with a legit deal..... Ed this is not about the Post Office ..PERIOD! .....It is about the cash the Dems want to bail out the cesspool cities that have been mismanaged for years by mostly Dems. (Example the last Republican Mayor in Chicago 1931.) Pelosi wants 2 Trillion of which the Post Office would get $75 Billion.
    • JL
      Jonathan L.
      14 August 2020 @ 08:53
      I hope you're on a $1 trial because you're wasting your money here otherwise
    • SJ
      Sean J.
      14 August 2020 @ 11:40
      Ed’s a hard core Dem (see his tweet stream). Having him speak about politics is not helpful. The bias, the bias...
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      14 August 2020 @ 14:39
      On politics, for RV it only matters where it hits the economy and markets. If you listen to what I said here, the takeaway about my framing should be that it is applicable whether you are partisan on one side or the other. I am not interested in who is to 'blame' - on what 'should' be. I am interested in outcomes that affect the economy and market - i.e what will or is likely to be. As soon as you put things through a partisan filter, you lose perspective and that's not good for business or invest decision-making. Sean J. - I am not a Democrat - and have never been. Not that it matters. But FYI
    • MT
      Mark T.
      14 August 2020 @ 20:25
      You need to chill out dude.
  • ES
    Eric S.
    14 August 2020 @ 18:21
    What this discussion is missing is that one side wants to put additional funds toward the USPS budget to support their desire for expanded mail in voting beyond what is expected for absentee ballots. The USPS is fully funded otherwise.
  • MJ
    Marius J.
    14 August 2020 @ 17:47
    Banks, down 30%: many are buying crypto, no banks. Might explain some of the fall.
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    14 August 2020 @ 14:58
    Thanks for another great episode. You guys are doing a tremendous work here, which is extremely helpful for us when trying to read and understand the markets... and in regards to the Wednesday episode: C'mon don't beat yourself for experimenting (that is what you do in life to keep on developing and to avoid stagnation) and also don't be impolite and distance yourselves from a guest you have brought on the show. Just keep up the brilliant work, Ash and Ed (and do try to pull the plug on the markets for at least some brief moments, when on that beach couch, Ed!) ... Ps. And being from Europe myself: great to have Roger back next week, to also have his euro perspective on things
  • DL
    Dan L.
    14 August 2020 @ 14:38
    Like Ash said, "it's going to be the political economy all the time between now and November and into January." Buckle up and HODL, everyone.
  • pi
    peter i.
    14 August 2020 @ 14:38
    this was terrific!
  • FH
    Francis H.
    14 August 2020 @ 01:31
    I I know you both attempt to keep politics out of the discussion. Yet, Sometimes it's obvious that you view Trump as the issue and the one who is playing politics with Econ. I and many think its the opposite and the dems holding up Econ stimulus in attempt to keep Econ down for election. Politics actually does matter and the economic vision from R and D this year couldn't be further apart. Perhaps and interview that discusses economic policies and consequences of Dem or Republicans victory in 2020. Aloha
    • MS
      Michael S.
      14 August 2020 @ 13:35
      Totally agree!!! The comment by Ed about the USPS and the middle America not getting their check is NOT a Macro but a micro view... Overall sentiment here is a Anti- Trump one
  • SB
    Samuel B.
    14 August 2020 @ 13:29
    It seems to me the only rationalization for the high prices in growth and tech stocks is this idea of them representing long dated bond proxies. They are until the aren’t and start going down.
  • MA
    Mike A.
    14 August 2020 @ 13:14
    Another great episode with Ed! Also looking forward to seeing Roger again as well. Keep up the great work Ash.
  • OM
    Owen M.
    14 August 2020 @ 12:53
    Very glad to have Ash and Ed back in the saddle. Thank you guys.
  • DC
    Doug C.
    14 August 2020 @ 00:22
    Ash, look into getting Ophir Gottlieb on the platform. Another Millennial POV that would be interesting. Great Job btw!
    • KS
      Karin S.
      14 August 2020 @ 12:07
      Please do, this guy is great. Spot on with many of his stock choices and the reasoning behind them.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    14 August 2020 @ 02:46
    We expect a full report on beach activities, dining, and the tourist traps, Ed....lol
    • KS
      Karin S.
      14 August 2020 @ 12:05
      Of course he says "holiday" and not vacation lol
  • EK
    Ernst K.
    14 August 2020 @ 09:42
    Great Conversation Ed! Would be good do have a deep dive into long duration assets looking across the spetrum of equity sectors (health care, tech, cons discr etc.), factors (momentum, EPS growth etc) and market cap range (large cap growth vs small cap groowth) in term of relative valuation.
  • GR
    GABRIEL R.
    14 August 2020 @ 09:25
    Great talk. Anyone have bright ideas on the best instrument to go long on US election chaos?
  • JM
    Jake M.
    14 August 2020 @ 08:31
    can some one explain why tech growth stock is traded like a bond? I dont quite get it from the daily briefing's explanation.
    • PB
      Patrick B.
      14 August 2020 @ 08:58
      What happens to the price of both when rates go down...?
  • DR
    Danilo R.
    14 August 2020 @ 05:30
    Excited to have Roger back and having a Euro perspective. I would love to have someone who can contribute a bit more on the EM Marco and FX view.
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    14 August 2020 @ 04:22
    Ed is really well read on all the heterodox economists, which is awesome as it helps add some different perspectives on different economic issues as they come up. Ed, if you are reading this, i think it's your turn to have your own discussion on economic theories with people like Lacy Hunt and Richard Werner etc. Don't just ask them what they think but ask them why they disagree with other schools of thought. Let's distill all these ideas so we can incorporate them into a working economic framework. Cheers
  • JT
    John T.
    14 August 2020 @ 03:10
    Funny how Ed and Ash have the same haircuts. As far as the report ... the idea that there seems to be no middle ground for the fiscal cliff is making me feel a bit better about all my Jan 2022 puts in IWM.
  • mB
    marc B.
    14 August 2020 @ 03:03
    Best duo! I like the diversity but the esh is on fire!
  • LP
    Lynn P.
    14 August 2020 @ 02:30
    Or, a less elegant explanation is the Fed induced TINA + FOMO has led to a crazed belief in the Nikolas one day being the next Amazon. What people do with their stimulus checks is up to them, but I suspect some pay down debt, others save for an uncertain future, and some gamble on slices of Kodak stock.
  • sh
    steve h.
    14 August 2020 @ 02:23
    like it when you mix it up... i really like the daily briefing
  • JS
    Jon S.
    14 August 2020 @ 02:17
    Ash, you never take holidays all the others take holidays what about you? Just asking you deserve good holidays man! :)
  • LP
    Lynn P.
    14 August 2020 @ 02:17
    Ed - your description nailed it and a Mises quote. There is no V-shaped recovery, and other than “value investors”, who owns banks in this environment? Thanks for this cogent summary after the flood of data from Berg and McElliott who is no doubt brilliant but who I rarely fully understand.
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    14 August 2020 @ 02:13
    So is AAPL now an iBond? :-)
  • JS
    Jon S.
    14 August 2020 @ 02:12
    Ed magnific! You are top of the top! Please continue appearing at the RVDF
  • BP
    Bradley P.
    14 August 2020 @ 01:49
    Ed's audio had some weird overtones.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    14 August 2020 @ 01:37
    “Couch on the Beach”!... Like a homeless managing director. Maybe ”do us a favor though” and reach into the cushions for the secret sauce that explains that Charlie McElligott interview. I’ll have a drink of you write it up on CR. Until then, have a great vacation, Edward.
  • SF
    Scott F.
    14 August 2020 @ 01:19
    props for the Mises quote...
  • JS
    Jared S.
    14 August 2020 @ 00:59
    Where are the videos from the Crypto Gathering published?
  • DS
    David S.
    14 August 2020 @ 00:44
    How long is RV going to continue making the DB free for the whole world to grab new subs? ZH has the link every day.
  • DS
    David S.
    14 August 2020 @ 00:39
    Looking good Billy Ray....Feeling good Louis!
  • RK
    Rusev K.
    14 August 2020 @ 00:36
    Ash, can you guys also post a transcript of the Daily Briefings? Would be very useful for the non-native English speakers. Thank you!
  • DP
    Divyesh P.
    14 August 2020 @ 00:02
    We are now seeing another round of rotation into Value - once that's done...do you agree we have another leg up?
  • DS
    David S.
    13 August 2020 @ 23:57
    YOY employment numbers and wages might be better indicators of economic activity. This information may not be as current. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    13 August 2020 @ 23:52
    Very helpful to pull together the essence of two interviews. The Fed cannot be the economy. They can monetarily support corporations and individuals during COVID Times a la Mr. Koo. I like to go walking in the morning especially with the sun shining. If the sun is shining and the earth is quaking, maybe not. In COVID Times the markets are quaking. Thanks. DLS
  • MH
    Martin H.
    13 August 2020 @ 23:37
    Maybe bank stocks are discounting the arrival of crypto and its potential to destroy their current model and choke hold on the system. Maybe they are dinosaurs here? Maybe.
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    13 August 2020 @ 23:09
    Fantastic briefing. Ed and Ash back together again. Thank the market gods.
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    13 August 2020 @ 23:07
    thanks guys one more really helpfull

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yuskois the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authoredThe Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot onThe NewYork TimesBest Sellers list. Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offeringwhichutilizesa true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures,and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovativeways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring.James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy. Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channelwatched by over 80,000 people.In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years. He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences. Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although hebegan his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full timejournalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of humaninterest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched theDefiancepodcast andDefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst.He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clientsand former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients.Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14.At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”)for the firm’s clients.Prior to that,Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006.While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in whichhe aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University.He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltemoversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development. Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem. Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.