Daily Briefing – August 13, 2020

Published on
August 13th, 2020
Duration
33 minutes


Daily Briefing – August 13, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Peter Cooper, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: August 13th, 2020 • Duration: 33 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss secular stagnation, initial jobless claims, and the fiscal cliff. They begin by exploring Ed's takeaways from his interviews with Milton Berg and Charlie McElligott, their contrarian stances, and how price signal distortion is pointing toward secular stagnation. Ed and Ash also parse the differences between seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims and how the treatment of the data shapes the way an investor understands employment trends during the pandemic. They wrap up their discussion by considering USPS funding, the lapse in fiscal aid, and the significant political tail risks ahead for this election cycle. In the intro, Peter Cooper reviews the latest initial jobless claims numbers and the plight of essential workers.

Comments

Transcript

  • DB
    Daniel B.
    19 August 2020 @ 12:55
    Dems just need to put politics aside and allow stimulus to flow. Game playing can come later.
  • MH
    Matthew H.
    14 August 2020 @ 20:39
    I rate the Ad, Ash combo. Always informative. Plus Ed has the Euro view too and can synthesise accordingly
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    14 August 2020 @ 01:52
    Ed... In Trump's daily news conference today he was asked about his willingness to give the Post Office the cash and he quickly indicated that it would be no problem if the Dems can come to the table with a legit deal..... Ed this is not about the Post Office ..PERIOD! .....It is about the cash the Dems want to bail out the cesspool cities that have been mismanaged for years by mostly Dems. (Example the last Republican Mayor in Chicago 1931.) Pelosi wants 2 Trillion of which the Post Office would get $75 Billion.
    • JL
      Jonathan L.
      14 August 2020 @ 08:53
      I hope you're on a $1 trial because you're wasting your money here otherwise
    • SJ
      Sean J.
      14 August 2020 @ 11:40
      Ed’s a hard core Dem (see his tweet stream). Having him speak about politics is not helpful. The bias, the bias...
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      14 August 2020 @ 14:39
      On politics, for RV it only matters where it hits the economy and markets. If you listen to what I said here, the takeaway about my framing should be that it is applicable whether you are partisan on one side or the other. I am not interested in who is to 'blame' - on what 'should' be. I am interested in outcomes that affect the economy and market - i.e what will or is likely to be. As soon as you put things through a partisan filter, you lose perspective and that's not good for business or invest decision-making. Sean J. - I am not a Democrat - and have never been. Not that it matters. But FYI
    • MT
      Mark T.
      14 August 2020 @ 20:25
      You need to chill out dude.
  • ES
    Eric S.
    14 August 2020 @ 18:21
    What this discussion is missing is that one side wants to put additional funds toward the USPS budget to support their desire for expanded mail in voting beyond what is expected for absentee ballots. The USPS is fully funded otherwise.
  • MJ
    Marius J.
    14 August 2020 @ 17:47
    Banks, down 30%: many are buying crypto, no banks. Might explain some of the fall.
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    14 August 2020 @ 14:58
    Thanks for another great episode. You guys are doing a tremendous work here, which is extremely helpful for us when trying to read and understand the markets... and in regards to the Wednesday episode: C'mon don't beat yourself for experimenting (that is what you do in life to keep on developing and to avoid stagnation) and also don't be impolite and distance yourselves from a guest you have brought on the show. Just keep up the brilliant work, Ash and Ed (and do try to pull the plug on the markets for at least some brief moments, when on that beach couch, Ed!) ... Ps. And being from Europe myself: great to have Roger back next week, to also have his euro perspective on things
  • DL
    Dan L.
    14 August 2020 @ 14:38
    Like Ash said, "it's going to be the political economy all the time between now and November and into January." Buckle up and HODL, everyone.
  • pi
    peter i.
    14 August 2020 @ 14:38
    this was terrific!
  • FH
    Francis H.
    14 August 2020 @ 01:31
    I I know you both attempt to keep politics out of the discussion. Yet, Sometimes it's obvious that you view Trump as the issue and the one who is playing politics with Econ. I and many think its the opposite and the dems holding up Econ stimulus in attempt to keep Econ down for election. Politics actually does matter and the economic vision from R and D this year couldn't be further apart. Perhaps and interview that discusses economic policies and consequences of Dem or Republicans victory in 2020. Aloha
    • MS
      Michael S.
      14 August 2020 @ 13:35
      Totally agree!!! The comment by Ed about the USPS and the middle America not getting their check is NOT a Macro but a micro view... Overall sentiment here is a Anti- Trump one
  • SB
    Samuel B.
    14 August 2020 @ 13:29
    It seems to me the only rationalization for the high prices in growth and tech stocks is this idea of them representing long dated bond proxies. They are until the aren’t and start going down.
  • MA
    Mike A.
    14 August 2020 @ 13:14
    Another great episode with Ed! Also looking forward to seeing Roger again as well. Keep up the great work Ash.
  • OM
    Owen M.
    14 August 2020 @ 12:53
    Very glad to have Ash and Ed back in the saddle. Thank you guys.
  • DC
    Doug C.
    14 August 2020 @ 00:22
    Ash, look into getting Ophir Gottlieb on the platform. Another Millennial POV that would be interesting. Great Job btw!
    • KS
      Karin S.
      14 August 2020 @ 12:07
      Please do, this guy is great. Spot on with many of his stock choices and the reasoning behind them.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    14 August 2020 @ 02:46
    We expect a full report on beach activities, dining, and the tourist traps, Ed....lol
    • KS
      Karin S.
      14 August 2020 @ 12:05
      Of course he says "holiday" and not vacation lol
  • EK
    Ernst K.
    14 August 2020 @ 09:42
    Great Conversation Ed! Would be good do have a deep dive into long duration assets looking across the spetrum of equity sectors (health care, tech, cons discr etc.), factors (momentum, EPS growth etc) and market cap range (large cap growth vs small cap groowth) in term of relative valuation.
  • GR
    GABRIEL R.
    14 August 2020 @ 09:25
    Great talk. Anyone have bright ideas on the best instrument to go long on US election chaos?
  • JM
    Jake M.
    14 August 2020 @ 08:31
    can some one explain why tech growth stock is traded like a bond? I dont quite get it from the daily briefing's explanation.
    • PB
      Patrick B.
      14 August 2020 @ 08:58
      What happens to the price of both when rates go down...?
  • DR
    Danilo R.
    14 August 2020 @ 05:30
    Excited to have Roger back and having a Euro perspective. I would love to have someone who can contribute a bit more on the EM Marco and FX view.
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    14 August 2020 @ 04:22
    Ed is really well read on all the heterodox economists, which is awesome as it helps add some different perspectives on different economic issues as they come up. Ed, if you are reading this, i think it's your turn to have your own discussion on economic theories with people like Lacy Hunt and Richard Werner etc. Don't just ask them what they think but ask them why they disagree with other schools of thought. Let's distill all these ideas so we can incorporate them into a working economic framework. Cheers
  • JT
    John T.
    14 August 2020 @ 03:10
    Funny how Ed and Ash have the same haircuts. As far as the report ... the idea that there seems to be no middle ground for the fiscal cliff is making me feel a bit better about all my Jan 2022 puts in IWM.
  • mB
    marc B.
    14 August 2020 @ 03:03
    Best duo! I like the diversity but the esh is on fire!
  • LP
    Lynn P.
    14 August 2020 @ 02:30
    Or, a less elegant explanation is the Fed induced TINA + FOMO has led to a crazed belief in the Nikolas one day being the next Amazon. What people do with their stimulus checks is up to them, but I suspect some pay down debt, others save for an uncertain future, and some gamble on slices of Kodak stock.
  • sh
    steve h.
    14 August 2020 @ 02:23
    like it when you mix it up... i really like the daily briefing
  • JS
    Jon S.
    14 August 2020 @ 02:17
    Ash, you never take holidays all the others take holidays what about you? Just asking you deserve good holidays man! :)
  • LP
    Lynn P.
    14 August 2020 @ 02:17
    Ed - your description nailed it and a Mises quote. There is no V-shaped recovery, and other than “value investors”, who owns banks in this environment? Thanks for this cogent summary after the flood of data from Berg and McElliott who is no doubt brilliant but who I rarely fully understand.
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    14 August 2020 @ 02:13
    So is AAPL now an iBond? :-)
  • JS
    Jon S.
    14 August 2020 @ 02:12
    Ed magnific! You are top of the top! Please continue appearing at the RVDF
  • BP
    Bradley P.
    14 August 2020 @ 01:49
    Ed's audio had some weird overtones.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    14 August 2020 @ 01:37
    “Couch on the Beach”!... Like a homeless managing director. Maybe ”do us a favor though” and reach into the cushions for the secret sauce that explains that Charlie McElligott interview. I’ll have a drink of you write it up on CR. Until then, have a great vacation, Edward.
  • SF
    Scott F.
    14 August 2020 @ 01:19
    props for the Mises quote...
  • JS
    Jared S.
    14 August 2020 @ 00:59
    Where are the videos from the Crypto Gathering published?
  • DS
    David S.
    14 August 2020 @ 00:44
    How long is RV going to continue making the DB free for the whole world to grab new subs? ZH has the link every day.
  • DS
    David S.
    14 August 2020 @ 00:39
    Looking good Billy Ray....Feeling good Louis!
  • RK
    Rusev K.
    14 August 2020 @ 00:36
    Ash, can you guys also post a transcript of the Daily Briefings? Would be very useful for the non-native English speakers. Thank you!
  • DP
    Divyesh P.
    14 August 2020 @ 00:02
    We are now seeing another round of rotation into Value - once that's done...do you agree we have another leg up?
  • DS
    David S.
    13 August 2020 @ 23:57
    YOY employment numbers and wages might be better indicators of economic activity. This information may not be as current. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    13 August 2020 @ 23:52
    Very helpful to pull together the essence of two interviews. The Fed cannot be the economy. They can monetarily support corporations and individuals during COVID Times a la Mr. Koo. I like to go walking in the morning especially with the sun shining. If the sun is shining and the earth is quaking, maybe not. In COVID Times the markets are quaking. Thanks. DLS
  • MH
    Martin H.
    13 August 2020 @ 23:37
    Maybe bank stocks are discounting the arrival of crypto and its potential to destroy their current model and choke hold on the system. Maybe they are dinosaurs here? Maybe.
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    13 August 2020 @ 23:09
    Fantastic briefing. Ed and Ash back together again. Thank the market gods.
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    13 August 2020 @ 23:07
    thanks guys one more really helpfull