Daily Briefing – August 24, 2020

Published on
August 24th, 2020
Duration
34 minutes


Daily Briefing – August 24, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: August 24th, 2020 • Duration: 34 minutes

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to make sense of a series of financial news stories -- from the so-called "K-shaped" recovery to the struggles American college towns are facing to Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg's ringing the alarm bell on TikTok. They also evaluate Tesla's meteoric rise, looking at comments made by Joel Greenblatt, a legendary investor as well as a Real Vision guest, that he "can't explain it." Lastly, Ed and Ash scrutinize the rise of "investing gurus" on social media platforms. In the intro, Jack takes another look at the U.S. housing market.

Comments

Transcript

  • DT
    Denis T.
    29 August 2020 @ 01:07
    Thanks guys, I'd be curious to hear your povs on currencies in general, including crypto, in relation to the the Fed's, ECB's, and other global bank plans. It seems extraordinary that fiat currencies are near zero/driving to negative while many cryptos now offer interest or "staking" often around 5%. Cryptos are feeling like money from 10+ years ago – they work for savers – while the fiats are starting to feel like monopoly money. Could be a very interesting decade in currencies.
  • GB
    Griffin B.
    26 August 2020 @ 22:22
    Really like this format
  • AR
    Andrew R.
    26 August 2020 @ 19:42
    new format is great!
  • VS
    Vishal S.
    26 August 2020 @ 00:04
    I like the format gents. Try it a few times each week or month to mix things up. The intro briefings from Jack, Nick and Peter are excellent, so keep those coming.
  • RY
    Ron Y.
    25 August 2020 @ 23:52
    Really like the format of this Daily Briefing.
  • JM
    James M.
    25 August 2020 @ 22:20
    Love the new format gents!! 👏👏 Thanks for everything
  • GH
    Gregory H.
    24 August 2020 @ 22:14
    To your point Ed, you don't have to offer anything compelling for 30k, 40k, 50k at university if you have an iron grip on credentialing and historical job networks... only corporates can change this through their practices
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      24 August 2020 @ 22:21
      Well said
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      25 August 2020 @ 20:44
      I dropped out of university because i through it was a waste of time and ended up, thirty years later, a Senior VP of a major corporate (and a passionate RV subscriber!). Building a career without a university degree has always been possible but is rather tough.
  • SP
    Stanley P.
    25 August 2020 @ 19:44
    Like the new format, but maybe less wondering and more on point.
  • JF
    John F.
    25 August 2020 @ 17:50
    RV should consider having Scott Galloway, Professor of marketing at NYU on to give an overview of higher education in the current economy amongst other subjects. He co-hosts PIVOT with Kara Swisher and his own podcast, the Prof G Show as well. Fascinating and entertaining speaker equal to the caliber of RV.
    • MA
      Melanie A.
      25 August 2020 @ 17:51
      I was thinking the same!
    • DB
      Dr B.
      25 August 2020 @ 19:04
      @profgalloway has a narrow perspective, and provokes eyerolls from folks who aren't at NYU or other elite U's. If you're going to give him even more of a platform, consider balancing it with someone who actually researches highered, like @saragoldrickrab.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    24 August 2020 @ 23:54
    Education is partially social maturation. Probably important that opportunity be based on merit, not connections. But that is human nature. Trumps Convalescent Plasma decision is not science based. It's bad decision because there are no controlled trial results supporting its efficacy. He could have talked about leronlimab which is the subject of an application to FDA for an emergency use approval and has statistically significant results (p = 0.023 for NEWS2 criteria) and has an impeccable safety record over more than 5 years. Leronlimab has shown it can prevent progression of the Covid 19 from mild/moderate symptoms to severe/critical symptoms requiring hospitalization. It is mystifying how he could overlook this!
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      25 August 2020 @ 18:03
      HCQ and Zinc already has. But Fauci and Gates don't get paid that way.
  • MA
    Melanie A.
    25 August 2020 @ 17:56
    Love the format - maybe mix it up and use this format as a weekly recap (and I like the odd 10 second banter about football etc)
  • DL
    Dan L.
    25 August 2020 @ 17:06
    I like you guys, but I have other things to do than listen to chit chat about football (European or otherwise) and the political conventions. When it pertains to markets or macro, I’m all ears.
  • JJ
    John J.
    25 August 2020 @ 16:55
    Great show; great format. I much prefer it over the normal format. Good job both of you!
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    24 August 2020 @ 22:49
    Regarding your comments about a university education, you can already get a university education on-line for free. It takes work and self-discipline, but it's all there, and from top-notch universities. What you can't get for free is the diploma. Hard times are coming for universities, and I'm kind of waiting for one or more to start offering class credit by exam, leading ultimately to that diploma, but at a cost way below current tuition fees. Or, companies, who now use diplomas as a screening tool, could start looking at test scores on things like the GRE. What difference does it really make if you have a diploma or not, if you can score well enough on the GRE to be admitted to graduate school? I realize it's not really quite that simple, but the whole university system, as it currently exists, is ripe for disruption, and a vast decrease in costs.
    • JD
      Jimmy D.
      25 August 2020 @ 16:33
      Don't feel so bad for the US schools, they have raised prices for far too long and made people suffer. The cure for high prices is high prices. Maybe my old teachers can learn stock and options trading.
  • CM
    Christopher M.
    24 August 2020 @ 22:49
    I asked a similar question last week about lumber prices: is it possible that, in addition to the flight from cities, that the mortagage delinquency rate and lack of foreclosures is driving more aggressive loaning for new home construction? Particularly when real returns on bonds are negative and the banks have to search the depths to find yield. The K-shaped recovery concept seems to make additional sense of this. If it were people *in general* not paying their mortgages, then the banks might be leery of lending to new home construction and subsequently new home owners. But if the home construction companies are the upper leg of the K, and the individuals who buy those houses are the upper leg of the K, then the banks can give up on the lower leg of the K people who are delinquent on their mortgages, and since they can’t foreclose, they substitute this by replacing the delinquent mortgage from the bottom K leg with a new home loan for someone on the upper leg of the K. If they are aggressively seeking this strategy that would seem to reduce costs of construction even further than they would be otherwise and thus secure the position of the construction companies in the upper leg of the K.
    • JD
      Jimmy D.
      24 August 2020 @ 23:07
      The new loans is speculation driven by low rates and zombie credit that has not yet been downgraded has not affected housing supply. There tends to not be a lot of existing housing supply when it's nearly impossible to evict someone. All the scam news websites on page 1 of Google telling people to buy a house now leave out the fact any insolvent person that can manage to squat in a house or even a hotel room in my state isn't being evicted. 20 to 30 percent of mortgages are zombie mortgages, meaning only state or federal payment deferments keep the mortgages from defaulting. Think about what existing home sales would look like without the near sovietization of the housing market where 20 percent of housing becomes free to the insolvent.
    • CM
      Christopher M.
      25 August 2020 @ 03:57
      So should we expect this to remain a bull run up to the point that foreclosures and evictions are allowed, and then the bubble will pop?
    • CM
      Christopher M.
      25 August 2020 @ 03:58
      It seems like this may persist despite all that if it’s driven by exodus from the city. Even if people can be kicked out of their homes, the voluntary movement is from the place with plenty of homes to the place with not enough homes. Apartments can remain vacant in the city if people want to live elsewhere, and apartments can’t be moved from the city to be turned into suburban houses.
    • JD
      Jimmy D.
      25 August 2020 @ 16:28
      @Christopher M. I don't have the math to back it up but my feeling is there would not be a supply issue pushing up price on existing homes if the free market was allowed and insolvent homeowners faced any real prospect of eviction (they don't) This is a fools rally in housing. Landlords haven't even started walking away from their apartments/commercial real estate but the keys will be coming in the mail soon to the banks from commercial real estate owners and large apartment block owners who simply cannot afford to live with no rents being paid.
  • MH
    Michael H.
    25 August 2020 @ 15:32
    both you you do a fantastic job...good format no doubt.
  • BI
    Brett I.
    25 August 2020 @ 14:49
    If house sales are up because people are moving out of the city. Who is on the other side of the transaction and buying the city property? Or is it renters buying out of town? If so, is the rental market about to collapse?
  • RN
    Richard N.
    25 August 2020 @ 14:07
    Ed here's a big "WE ARE" from State College!
  • ac
    adam c.
    25 August 2020 @ 13:40
    I did not think that the new format was a dud however I enjoy RVDB because of the daily market analysis the show provides. Perhaps this format can be done as a different show (weekly, monthly, quarterly)? My education from RV over the past year, which is why I subscribe, is 95% from hearing a guest or host site analysis which I did not understand then forcing me to research afterwards until I get it. So strangely I get less out of the shows designed to cater to me, as an entry level options trader, and gain significantly more value from the technical conversations which are "over my head". On a different note as an unemployed sommelier I did find the restaurant discussion insightful and even mildly hopeful! Cheers, Adam
  • EJ
    Eugene J.
    25 August 2020 @ 13:05
    RV should do a deep dive on education with Professor Galloway. He's a great interview and RV would get him to open up on the business side of education.
  • CT
    Chris T.
    25 August 2020 @ 13:03
    Tesla values are opposite in UK.. no financing companies (except BMWs arm) want to touch them in UK as guaranteed future values of them are questionable- how long will the battery last etc. Couple that with no Tesla dealerships to bid and trade second hand cars = more depreciation than its peers
  • AB
    Ash B. | Real Vision
    24 August 2020 @ 22:22
    What did you guys think of this new format?
    • CP
      Carlos P.
      24 August 2020 @ 22:50
      I really like it, I just was astonished that you don't follow soccer at all haha
    • AJ
      Adam J.
      24 August 2020 @ 23:14
      Good! And nice to keep it under 30 minutes a day as was done today :)
    • JD
      James D.
      25 August 2020 @ 00:10
      Pick three important events or things that happened in the markets and discuss. Keep is simple with unique insights that we can only get from RV. Thanks!!
    • ly
      lena y.
      25 August 2020 @ 01:27
      Enjoy the new format! Any news I hear here which I like to have a deeper understanding I'll goto the specific story. Very helpful!
    • AB
      Alain B.
      25 August 2020 @ 02:47
      Great recap of the day after US closed as I wake up in Hong Kong for a new day.
    • AT
      Adelina T.
      25 August 2020 @ 06:49
      I did not like it that much, feels too shallow and like media commentary available in lots of other places, too little of the RF value add in my opinion.
    • RS
      Rob S.
      25 August 2020 @ 12:48
      I liked it. I appreciate that you discussed headlines and then added some experienced/thoughtful commentary.
  • jW
    john W.
    25 August 2020 @ 12:36
    After suffering a bout of restaurant food poisoning (not Russian food) it occurred to me that a reduced customer base leads to longer food turn-over time. If storage is compromised the opportunity for spoiled food increases along with the potential for damage to a restaurant's reputation.
  • NF
    Neal F.
    25 August 2020 @ 11:53
    Not a fan of the format. Two nice guys having a consensus conversation.
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    25 August 2020 @ 11:27
    Great show format. I would love your thoughts about special purpose acquisition company space. They have a built -in floor price usually around $10.00 premerger; so they have a good asymmetrical risk-to-reward.
  • SH
    Sahil H.
    25 August 2020 @ 02:48
    Great format would be good for a once in a while type of thing. It would be cool to have a mix up of your take on what's going on right now in news headlines but also what are some big things that happened that everyone missed.
    • RA
      Robert A.
      25 August 2020 @ 03:15
      Sahil, I was ready to type almost the same thing!....wanted to read some comments first, but you nailed it—liked the new format, but suggest once or twice a week maximum would be appropriate.
    • JS
      JEVGENI S.
      25 August 2020 @ 11:24
      Totally agree. Twice a week would be ideal imo. Great to watch while ironing xd
  • AQ
    Andrew Q.
    25 August 2020 @ 11:13
    Love the RVDB and all the RV content. I’m hoping your macro expertise shines through in this RVDB format ... focusing on broader impacts and outlooks arising from the headlines, and not shying away from charts, data, and trends. Side note: it was funny hearing Ash say two things I found myself saying in recent conversations: 1. NYC will have its ups and downs, no doubt, but it will remain special - it will remain NEW YORK CITY - because it attracts ambitious people, starting with our immigrant population. 2. Reading and listening to Trump’s words are very different ... putting one’s thoughts about his message aside, his meaning comes through when he speaks; to me, it’s like listening to a song in contrast to reading its lyrics. Keep it up, Team RV.
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    25 August 2020 @ 11:00
    Excelente format you guys have done! Cheers!
  • FS
    Filo S.
    25 August 2020 @ 09:45
    Virtual education can take on many forms. Brick and Mortar are way overvalued. Paying for a brand versus quality professors. Professors will be able to access remote university platforms and students will be able to screen them for the subject matter they want to study. Same wit teachers screening students. It will become frictionless and disintermediate the administration middlemen who eat up most of the costs. Same with subsidizing sports programs and local municipalities at brick and mortar schools. Why should the students subsizdize communities and administrators to get a quality education? Students matched with professors globally is where it will be going. Virtual Accredited Global Universities. Thin linked in where students can qualify the professors they want to pay for a class. Think professors, who can qualify the students based on their interests. Much more efficient and less costly. More of a meritocracy than getting ahead becuase mommy and daddy could affor to send their kids to a brick and mortar brand, which is all about who you know, not what you know.
  • RK
    Roger K.
    25 August 2020 @ 08:59
    can you make it shorter?
  • MJ
    Marius J.
    25 August 2020 @ 07:19
    The news Incan read myself, I would be more interested in the analysis how this will affect the market and how you should position your portfolio,
  • JA
    Jordan A.
    24 August 2020 @ 22:50
    I think the biggest problem with online schooling is that there is no way to taylor certain lessons to specific people. Not everyone learns the same way. I needed hands on help when I was in school. The way I understood some things required analogies or specific examples. Also the best way to learn is to teach, and online really doesn't compare to being in a dynamic classroom.
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      25 August 2020 @ 07:10
      I think you need to expand your view in virtual learning. The best approach isn't taking the lectures and learning styles we have currently just online, but leveraging a personalized virtual learning environment with AR and VR. There can also be an AI assisted teacher, that sees where you are struggling and give more emphasis on those subjects. The possibilities are infinite with taking schools online.
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    24 August 2020 @ 23:50
    dont bet against Tesla you will loose is like on crypto think about it out of the box nothing move like Tesla except the crypto something to think about it? regarding education is critical to make it in a real way not the old way great show for Monday
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      25 August 2020 @ 07:05
      I think that is a good analogy, but Tesla needs the correction from 20000 to 3000 like Bitcoin had in 2018
  • JD
    Jesse D.
    25 August 2020 @ 00:21
    Your representation of the case for Tesla as "Then again, their cars do retain their value nicely..." seems like the understatement of the century! Whether you agree with the bull thesis or not, the speculation is about them becoming a $1T company over the next 10 years, maybe $2T, as they emerge as a significant leader in sustainable transport, sustainable energy in general, autonomous driving, etc, and this thesis has received a substantial boost by the strengthening of their financials over the past year.
    • GH
      Gregory H.
      25 August 2020 @ 04:08
      Agreed, This opinion might upset a lot of people on here, but Tesla has reached escape velocity in terms of no longer relying on markets for capital raises... meaning that it exhibits tons of characteristics that Amazon did when people were still trying to short it from 2010 to 2015... Now that does not mean on 8/24/2020 that it should have equity value of $400 billion, but even if the stock dropped 80%, it could still tap markets with minor dilution... don't think of Tesla as a massive corporation, but rather the largest start-up in history, which happens to be publicly traded... obviously many investors have the inside track on the supposedly next generation battery tech coming next month... if it isn't some massive new battery advancement, watch out below for the share price...
  • mB
    marc B.
    25 August 2020 @ 04:07
    Format rocks. Top stories review & insight. What I need to here
  • SS
    Steven S.
    25 August 2020 @ 02:29
    Ed and Ash: you guys do an exceptional job. Much appreciated and anticipated. Convalescent plasma is likely safe in most situations and, if you had to wager, it appears that it moderately reduces severity and death (aggregated over all cases) given the current data. Convalescent plasma shows some degree of promise--it ain't hydroxychloroquine. At least Trump's recommendations seem to be improving from complete ignorance to ok. For goodness sake, listen to those with expertise in medical and biological sciences, not politicians.
  • nw
    nathan w.
    25 August 2020 @ 02:27
    Love it
  • CP
    Christopher P.
    25 August 2020 @ 02:00
    Loved it!
  • IN
    I N.
    25 August 2020 @ 01:55
    Bayern Munich, not surprisingly, brought a consistent team game, and PSG, surprisingly, could not bring sufficient fantasy from their individual unit star players to counter it in what was a very high level match. "Everything is insane right now" does not sound unreasonable. Surgically inject this format when there is a day with several news stories.
  • sc
    sung c.
    25 August 2020 @ 01:31
    good stuff
  • SK
    Stephane K.
    25 August 2020 @ 01:22
    Perfect format!
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    25 August 2020 @ 01:17
    I liked the new format even though I already read half those stories - you gotta keep it interesting, but you should make Thursdays (or a different day maybe) where you do it. Would still give you the variety that you crave, and would ensure that the best stories are those you discuss
  • BB
    Bob B.
    25 August 2020 @ 01:14
    TikTok investing - is that a sign Robinhooders are loosing trust of investing establishment to make them money?
  • RT
    Richard T.
    25 August 2020 @ 01:12
    Format? Reserving judgment.
  • AO
    Ann O.
    25 August 2020 @ 00:59
    Don’t care for a steady diet of new format. Too little depth, too much mainstream. Prefer in depth previous format. Feels very watered down.
  • KD
    Kenneth D.
    25 August 2020 @ 00:42
    Please do an episode on the skyrocketing price of new home construction projects!
  • DS
    David S.
    25 August 2020 @ 00:29
    Like the new format, but I also miss the "Ed, what are you looking at" deeper dive, especially when he discusses credit issues from "Credit Writedowns". Credit and FX are the underlying forest fires.
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    25 August 2020 @ 00:18
    Two references to the Violent Femmes in a row, Ash: magnificent ;)
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    25 August 2020 @ 00:13
    Thank you, gentlemen—great discussion today.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    25 August 2020 @ 00:07
    liked the format:)
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    24 August 2020 @ 23:57
    new format great thanks
  • SS
    Sheldon S.
    24 August 2020 @ 23:43
    Good Discussion
  • BA
    Bob A.
    24 August 2020 @ 23:22
    I enjoyed the new format. I would suggest adding one or two subscriber questions. Thanks.
  • XM
    Xavier M.
    24 August 2020 @ 23:20
    Agreed gentlemen. This is exactly the appropriate format for a daily briefing. Thumbs up. Cheers.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    24 August 2020 @ 23:11
    New format has a nice energy, BUT downside: it lacks depth. I suggest you (Ed and Ash) do it, but less than half the time.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    24 August 2020 @ 23:11
    I like the format! Very nice to listen to. We enjoy it indeed!
  • VD
    Vishal D.
    24 August 2020 @ 23:11
    new format is excellent
  • BK
    Brian K.
    24 August 2020 @ 23:09
    What about the story about China can reverse Bitcoin transactions? Ripple Ceo or Cfo Reports
  • KH
    Ken H.
    24 August 2020 @ 23:05
    I love the new format, Tesla will be strong until after battery day Sept 22nd.
  • AJ
    Adam J.
    24 August 2020 @ 22:59
    Such an apt point by Ash on the paradigm shift away from universities. Some fields will always require a physical environment but I think that formula for success will slowly die away with the rise of gig economy, decentralization and COVID WFM measures being the catalyst for the realization that in fact people can be productive in that way. Maybe not for technical fields but certainly for your average office worker or business person. Tech is already recruiting without degrees due to their results-orientated focus now. As someone that made their initial money in tech in Asia Pac, we were working remotely 90% of the time since over 10 years ago and clearly it has worked for that particular industry. I hate to think what is going to happen to the commercial real estate sector as well as the swathes of property owned by university campuses and endowments.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    24 August 2020 @ 22:58
    Agree with Ed.
  • JD
    Jimmy D.
    24 August 2020 @ 22:54
    Real Vision is a good example of deflation in education. For 250 dollars a year you can learn college level macro economics. This won't land you a job at the local bank, but who cares? Robinhood isn't checking for degrees.
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    24 August 2020 @ 22:53
    New format good.
  • RA
    Rick A.
    24 August 2020 @ 22:49
    The rapid fire response to news of the day is an interesting concept, but it could quickly devolve into becoming just another financial media company. Rapid fire once every 2 weeks or so while maintaining the more thorough analysis for which RVDB is known sounds like a good mix.
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    24 August 2020 @ 22:43
    I like the new format as an occasional thing. With two regulars like Ash and Ed, it works well. But when they have on the various guests (which I also appreciate), it might not go as well. Just remember, if all your experiments work out, you're not pushing the envelope enough. Keep trying different things, based on your experience and sense of daring. Above all, please don't get stuck in a rut! It hasn't been a problem to this point, but keep pushing the boundaries.