Comments
Transcript
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DTThanks guys, I'd be curious to hear your povs on currencies in general, including crypto, in relation to the the Fed's, ECB's, and other global bank plans. It seems extraordinary that fiat currencies are near zero/driving to negative while many cryptos now offer interest or "staking" often around 5%. Cryptos are feeling like money from 10+ years ago – they work for savers – while the fiats are starting to feel like monopoly money. Could be a very interesting decade in currencies.
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GBReally like this format
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ARnew format is great!
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VSI like the format gents. Try it a few times each week or month to mix things up. The intro briefings from Jack, Nick and Peter are excellent, so keep those coming.
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RYReally like the format of this Daily Briefing.
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JMLove the new format gents!! 👏👏 Thanks for everything
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GHTo your point Ed, you don't have to offer anything compelling for 30k, 40k, 50k at university if you have an iron grip on credentialing and historical job networks... only corporates can change this through their practices
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SPLike the new format, but maybe less wondering and more on point.
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JFRV should consider having Scott Galloway, Professor of marketing at NYU on to give an overview of higher education in the current economy amongst other subjects. He co-hosts PIVOT with Kara Swisher and his own podcast, the Prof G Show as well. Fascinating and entertaining speaker equal to the caliber of RV.
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RMEducation is partially social maturation. Probably important that opportunity be based on merit, not connections. But that is human nature. Trumps Convalescent Plasma decision is not science based. It's bad decision because there are no controlled trial results supporting its efficacy. He could have talked about leronlimab which is the subject of an application to FDA for an emergency use approval and has statistically significant results (p = 0.023 for NEWS2 criteria) and has an impeccable safety record over more than 5 years. Leronlimab has shown it can prevent progression of the Covid 19 from mild/moderate symptoms to severe/critical symptoms requiring hospitalization. It is mystifying how he could overlook this!
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MALove the format - maybe mix it up and use this format as a weekly recap (and I like the odd 10 second banter about football etc)
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DLI like you guys, but I have other things to do than listen to chit chat about football (European or otherwise) and the political conventions. When it pertains to markets or macro, I’m all ears.
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JJGreat show; great format. I much prefer it over the normal format. Good job both of you!
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GFRegarding your comments about a university education, you can already get a university education on-line for free. It takes work and self-discipline, but it's all there, and from top-notch universities. What you can't get for free is the diploma. Hard times are coming for universities, and I'm kind of waiting for one or more to start offering class credit by exam, leading ultimately to that diploma, but at a cost way below current tuition fees. Or, companies, who now use diplomas as a screening tool, could start looking at test scores on things like the GRE. What difference does it really make if you have a diploma or not, if you can score well enough on the GRE to be admitted to graduate school? I realize it's not really quite that simple, but the whole university system, as it currently exists, is ripe for disruption, and a vast decrease in costs.
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CMI asked a similar question last week about lumber prices: is it possible that, in addition to the flight from cities, that the mortagage delinquency rate and lack of foreclosures is driving more aggressive loaning for new home construction? Particularly when real returns on bonds are negative and the banks have to search the depths to find yield. The K-shaped recovery concept seems to make additional sense of this. If it were people *in general* not paying their mortgages, then the banks might be leery of lending to new home construction and subsequently new home owners. But if the home construction companies are the upper leg of the K, and the individuals who buy those houses are the upper leg of the K, then the banks can give up on the lower leg of the K people who are delinquent on their mortgages, and since they can’t foreclose, they substitute this by replacing the delinquent mortgage from the bottom K leg with a new home loan for someone on the upper leg of the K. If they are aggressively seeking this strategy that would seem to reduce costs of construction even further than they would be otherwise and thus secure the position of the construction companies in the upper leg of the K.
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MHboth you you do a fantastic job...good format no doubt.
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BIIf house sales are up because people are moving out of the city. Who is on the other side of the transaction and buying the city property? Or is it renters buying out of town? If so, is the rental market about to collapse?
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RNEd here's a big "WE ARE" from State College!
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acI did not think that the new format was a dud however I enjoy RVDB because of the daily market analysis the show provides. Perhaps this format can be done as a different show (weekly, monthly, quarterly)? My education from RV over the past year, which is why I subscribe, is 95% from hearing a guest or host site analysis which I did not understand then forcing me to research afterwards until I get it. So strangely I get less out of the shows designed to cater to me, as an entry level options trader, and gain significantly more value from the technical conversations which are "over my head". On a different note as an unemployed sommelier I did find the restaurant discussion insightful and even mildly hopeful! Cheers, Adam
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EJRV should do a deep dive on education with Professor Galloway. He's a great interview and RV would get him to open up on the business side of education.
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CTTesla values are opposite in UK.. no financing companies (except BMWs arm) want to touch them in UK as guaranteed future values of them are questionable- how long will the battery last etc. Couple that with no Tesla dealerships to bid and trade second hand cars = more depreciation than its peers
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ABWhat did you guys think of this new format?
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jWAfter suffering a bout of restaurant food poisoning (not Russian food) it occurred to me that a reduced customer base leads to longer food turn-over time. If storage is compromised the opportunity for spoiled food increases along with the potential for damage to a restaurant's reputation.
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NFNot a fan of the format. Two nice guys having a consensus conversation.
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JHGreat show format. I would love your thoughts about special purpose acquisition company space. They have a built -in floor price usually around $10.00 premerger; so they have a good asymmetrical risk-to-reward.
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SHGreat format would be good for a once in a while type of thing. It would be cool to have a mix up of your take on what's going on right now in news headlines but also what are some big things that happened that everyone missed.
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AQLove the RVDB and all the RV content. I’m hoping your macro expertise shines through in this RVDB format ... focusing on broader impacts and outlooks arising from the headlines, and not shying away from charts, data, and trends. Side note: it was funny hearing Ash say two things I found myself saying in recent conversations: 1. NYC will have its ups and downs, no doubt, but it will remain special - it will remain NEW YORK CITY - because it attracts ambitious people, starting with our immigrant population. 2. Reading and listening to Trump’s words are very different ... putting one’s thoughts about his message aside, his meaning comes through when he speaks; to me, it’s like listening to a song in contrast to reading its lyrics. Keep it up, Team RV.
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DOExcelente format you guys have done! Cheers!
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FSVirtual education can take on many forms. Brick and Mortar are way overvalued. Paying for a brand versus quality professors. Professors will be able to access remote university platforms and students will be able to screen them for the subject matter they want to study. Same wit teachers screening students. It will become frictionless and disintermediate the administration middlemen who eat up most of the costs. Same with subsidizing sports programs and local municipalities at brick and mortar schools. Why should the students subsizdize communities and administrators to get a quality education? Students matched with professors globally is where it will be going. Virtual Accredited Global Universities. Thin linked in where students can qualify the professors they want to pay for a class. Think professors, who can qualify the students based on their interests. Much more efficient and less costly. More of a meritocracy than getting ahead becuase mommy and daddy could affor to send their kids to a brick and mortar brand, which is all about who you know, not what you know.
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RKcan you make it shorter?
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MJThe news Incan read myself, I would be more interested in the analysis how this will affect the market and how you should position your portfolio,
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JAI think the biggest problem with online schooling is that there is no way to taylor certain lessons to specific people. Not everyone learns the same way. I needed hands on help when I was in school. The way I understood some things required analogies or specific examples. Also the best way to learn is to teach, and online really doesn't compare to being in a dynamic classroom.
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ERdont bet against Tesla you will loose is like on crypto think about it out of the box nothing move like Tesla except the crypto something to think about it? regarding education is critical to make it in a real way not the old way great show for Monday
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JDYour representation of the case for Tesla as "Then again, their cars do retain their value nicely..." seems like the understatement of the century! Whether you agree with the bull thesis or not, the speculation is about them becoming a $1T company over the next 10 years, maybe $2T, as they emerge as a significant leader in sustainable transport, sustainable energy in general, autonomous driving, etc, and this thesis has received a substantial boost by the strengthening of their financials over the past year.
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mBFormat rocks. Top stories review & insight. What I need to here
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SSEd and Ash: you guys do an exceptional job. Much appreciated and anticipated. Convalescent plasma is likely safe in most situations and, if you had to wager, it appears that it moderately reduces severity and death (aggregated over all cases) given the current data. Convalescent plasma shows some degree of promise--it ain't hydroxychloroquine. At least Trump's recommendations seem to be improving from complete ignorance to ok. For goodness sake, listen to those with expertise in medical and biological sciences, not politicians.
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nwLove it
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CPLoved it!
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INBayern Munich, not surprisingly, brought a consistent team game, and PSG, surprisingly, could not bring sufficient fantasy from their individual unit star players to counter it in what was a very high level match. "Everything is insane right now" does not sound unreasonable. Surgically inject this format when there is a day with several news stories.
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scgood stuff
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SKPerfect format!
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TBI liked the new format even though I already read half those stories - you gotta keep it interesting, but you should make Thursdays (or a different day maybe) where you do it. Would still give you the variety that you crave, and would ensure that the best stories are those you discuss
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BBTikTok investing - is that a sign Robinhooders are loosing trust of investing establishment to make them money?
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RTFormat? Reserving judgment.
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AODon’t care for a steady diet of new format. Too little depth, too much mainstream. Prefer in depth previous format. Feels very watered down.
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KDPlease do an episode on the skyrocketing price of new home construction projects!
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DSLike the new format, but I also miss the "Ed, what are you looking at" deeper dive, especially when he discusses credit issues from "Credit Writedowns". Credit and FX are the underlying forest fires.
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DMTwo references to the Violent Femmes in a row, Ash: magnificent ;)
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DMThank you, gentlemen—great discussion today.
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RMliked the format:)
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ERnew format great thanks
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SSGood Discussion
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BAI enjoyed the new format. I would suggest adding one or two subscriber questions. Thanks.
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XMAgreed gentlemen. This is exactly the appropriate format for a daily briefing. Thumbs up. Cheers.
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CMNew format has a nice energy, BUT downside: it lacks depth. I suggest you (Ed and Ash) do it, but less than half the time.
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JSI like the format! Very nice to listen to. We enjoy it indeed!
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VDnew format is excellent
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BKWhat about the story about China can reverse Bitcoin transactions? Ripple Ceo or Cfo Reports
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KHI love the new format, Tesla will be strong until after battery day Sept 22nd.
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AJSuch an apt point by Ash on the paradigm shift away from universities. Some fields will always require a physical environment but I think that formula for success will slowly die away with the rise of gig economy, decentralization and COVID WFM measures being the catalyst for the realization that in fact people can be productive in that way. Maybe not for technical fields but certainly for your average office worker or business person. Tech is already recruiting without degrees due to their results-orientated focus now. As someone that made their initial money in tech in Asia Pac, we were working remotely 90% of the time since over 10 years ago and clearly it has worked for that particular industry. I hate to think what is going to happen to the commercial real estate sector as well as the swathes of property owned by university campuses and endowments.
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JSAgree with Ed.
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JDReal Vision is a good example of deflation in education. For 250 dollars a year you can learn college level macro economics. This won't land you a job at the local bank, but who cares? Robinhood isn't checking for degrees.
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JHNew format good.
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RAThe rapid fire response to news of the day is an interesting concept, but it could quickly devolve into becoming just another financial media company. Rapid fire once every 2 weeks or so while maintaining the more thorough analysis for which RVDB is known sounds like a good mix.
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GFI like the new format as an occasional thing. With two regulars like Ash and Ed, it works well. But when they have on the various guests (which I also appreciate), it might not go as well. Just remember, if all your experiments work out, you're not pushing the envelope enough. Keep trying different things, based on your experience and sense of daring. Above all, please don't get stuck in a rut! It hasn't been a problem to this point, but keep pushing the boundaries.