Daily Briefing – July 21, 2020

Published on
July 21st, 2020
Duration
26 minutes


Daily Briefing – July 21, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Nick Correa, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: July 21st, 2020 • Duration: 26 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to talk about how EU leaders have closed in on its landmark recovery deal. Ash and Ed examine how European political dynamics have shifted and why this may not really be Europe's "Hamiltonian moment." They look at how federalism has played out in the US, how the EU differs in its makeup, and what existential threats the EU faces should their efforts fail. They wrap up their discussion with the unique threats the EU may face with coronavirus should it boomerang back to Europe. In the intro, Nick Correa covers the EU recovery deal's details and shares some of the difficulties in reaching a deal.

Comments

Transcript

  • DB
    David B.
    22 July 2020 @ 07:25
    All investors have blind spots. Here’s my perspective on Real Vision (generally speaking) .., USA is seriously in trouble from a COVID-19 perspective. But listening to u I don’t hear this. I hear about Europe’s issues and in today DB u talked about how USA is more cohesive than Europe .. seriously ?? U would certainly hope so .. U r comparing a country to a union of countries. Am Aussie BTW and constantly stunned at USA (not RV specifically) inability to comprehend the magnitude of COVID-19.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      22 July 2020 @ 07:49
      I don’t think you are on the same page as me here. The US has done a uniquely bad job in coronavirus. But we were talking about Europe. And Europe got a deal over the line. That’s bullish for the euro and for risk assets more generally. I said this in the Briefing.
    • SM
      Sean M.
      24 July 2020 @ 03:13
      This is more to Ed's comment. If this gets approved would this be bearish for the Euro due to the increase in supply of Euros especially in liquidity terms as Raoul has referenced many times or are you thinking bullish Euro due to their cohesiveness? Thanks.
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    22 July 2020 @ 19:12
    You guys make the FT look like a tabloid, every day.
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    22 July 2020 @ 18:02
    Go full Federal or Go Home !
  • PH
    Paul H.
    22 July 2020 @ 15:43
    The emergency medical professionals have developed effective treatments for COVID19, and they have been implementing these therapies which are reducing death rates.
  • JK
    Jim K.
    22 July 2020 @ 01:06
    Guys, COVID is a tragedy for sure and I do not mean to minimize any lives lost, but I have heard many front line medical professions say that there are people that are DYING WITH COVID RATHER THAN FROM COVID and being classified as COVID deaths and therefore overstating the COVID death count/ rate.
    • DS
      David S.
      22 July 2020 @ 01:16
      Even after all the US numbers are in, scientist will have a hard time validating them as politics has spoiled the broth. Scientist will need to look at information from other more rational countries. The only real question is how well each country controlled the virus and protected its citizens. The better controlled; the better the economic recovery. COVID-19 is now the apex predator until everyone is vaccinated. DLS
    • RM
      Robert M.
      22 July 2020 @ 02:12
      That is why many are looking at excess deaths. This is what a JAMA Internal Medicine report (from Yale Study) had to say about excess deaths in US: "From Mar 1 to May 30, there were about 781,000 all-cause deaths in 48 states, 95,235 officially attributed to COVID-19, leaving 122,300 more than would be expected during that period. The researchers said that although they cannot classify the deaths as due to COVID-19, flu activity had fallen to historically low levels in March." "In several states, the deaths occurred before the availability of COVID-19 diagnostic tests and thus weren't counted as coronavirus deaths. The estimated number of excess deaths varied significantly among states." So reports of under counting and over counting. Either way, excess deaths are way up in US over a short period of time. Fair to say Covid has made a big impact in this count.
    • JF
      John F.
      22 July 2020 @ 12:43
      From an owner of a funeral home (NY area) perspective, you have to look at excess deaths from the beginning of the year. Deaths by month in the US are very lumpy but even out during the year. Sorry but we will have to wait till end of year, on a personal note Covid deaths are heartbreaking. And since there were no services it was extremely tough on families. Also tough on the funeral home employees who basically become therapists for the families and each other.
    • DM
      Don M.
      22 July 2020 @ 12:50
      Here's the problem Jim, anyone can try to politicize Covid in either direction, but the party line won't matter when Jane and Joe Smith don't shop or go to restaurants nearly as much for fear of health.
  • ES
    Edward S.
    22 July 2020 @ 12:24
    Does anyone know if Raoul's flash update yesterday contained any change in position on the US Dollar? Just wondering if he is moving away from being long USD, and if so, what he's adjusted.
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    21 July 2020 @ 22:24
    In the coming days can you guys discuss Judy Shelton's Fed board nomination? Thanks
    • TN
      Tim N.
      22 July 2020 @ 11:16
      For a minute I thought you wrote Stephanie Kelton and was about to double my BTC position ;-)
  • MT
    Mike T.
    22 July 2020 @ 09:49
    I'm taking a risk with this post in that I've only speed read the transcript, so in advance if I got it wrong please accept my apologies. This is a classic manoeuvre by the Commission. The money is almost incidental, however the political consequences are siesmic, with a huge transfer of yet more powers to the unelected commission civil servants, with no democratic means to overrule i.e. the commission can now raise money and decide how it's spent.
  • MM
    Melvyn M.
    22 July 2020 @ 07:15
    An informative summary of today’s major political event delivered with RV’s unique perspective, thanks Ash, Ed & Nick! Given silvers price action of late, I’m surprised it wasn’t mentioned, especially in light of the EU deal.
  • OA
    Olivier A.
    22 July 2020 @ 02:49
    Such a great quote you shared, @Ed. Couldn't agree more. In hindsight, what was done - a common currency without shared fiscal - is mind boggling. One can argue over the other pros & cons of the eurozone - integrating heterogeneous economies in one currency zone being the main con, vs. easier trade and financing as the main pros - but that decoupling of monetary and fiscal was just a horrifying idea.
  • MT
    Matthew T.
    22 July 2020 @ 02:17
    How do I get a Real Vision mug like the one on Ed’s mantel?
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    22 July 2020 @ 01:47
    Ed Harris knows his shit! You to, Ash, but Ed's coverage of the EU history part was great!
  • OA
    Olivier A.
    22 July 2020 @ 01:29
    Great discussion. @Ash Bennington: I don't think Charles Michel meant that Europe is united the way the US are at all. It might be a translation issue, but that word is just used a lot in that context in French to essentially say "aligned" or "in agreement"
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      22 July 2020 @ 01:43
      Very interesting. Thanks for the translation, Olivier.
  • PB
    Paul B.
    22 July 2020 @ 00:13
    Gone from Real Vision to Tunnel Vision......Wot about the Silver going up 12% in a Day
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      22 July 2020 @ 00:24
      Missed opportunity. I tweeted about it but we simply didn’t have enough time to marshal facts as to how it is relevant to the broader market moves. We have to look at it tomorrow with Jim Bianco. Thanks for the feedback
    • CS
      Christopher S.
      22 July 2020 @ 01:35
      To be fair there should be a lot of days like this in the years to come so only so many times can RV say "WOW PRECIOUS METALS"
    • CS
      Christopher S.
      22 July 2020 @ 01:37
      The Euro Deal was the catalyst for the big move anyway. 750 billion euro stimulus.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    22 July 2020 @ 00:47
    How the EU still exists, when there are winners and losers is beyond me. Italy and Spain have just been showered in free money, by the tax payers of fiscally healthy EU members. UK's Brexit looking to be a sage move.
    • OA
      Olivier A.
      22 July 2020 @ 01:27
      That's a common view from outside of the EU. Reality is much more complicated than that. A couple points: 1. Germany and Northern countries have benefited immensely from the EU, and the € in particular. The common currency prevents other countries to devalue against them, which allows them to benefit from their competitiveness in a way that they never could before the eurozone existed. Similarly, the fact of being in the same currency zone as Southern economies prevents Northern countries' currencies from becoming safe havens in the way the Swiss frank has become. This is fantastic for their manufacturing - it has allowed them to keep a lot of basic industries (eg, steel, food processing) that have largely been wiped out in places like Switzerland. Remember that Switzerland desperately tried to fight the evaluation of the CHF, and had to capitulate. 2. Southern Europe, Ireland, Eastern Europe did benefit from European subsidies for a long time. However, they have also taken huge economic pain. Unemployment is extremely high in Italy, Spain, France, among the youth in particular. GDP/capita in Italy is lower than when they entered the eurozone. These countries are not having a grand old time at the expense of the North. Overall, The notion that the North is taking the pain and paying for the South without receiving any benefits in simply false. Finally, let's just say that the jury is still out on brexit. That's the most positive thing I can say about it. Meanwhile, you're entitled to believe that the 95%+ of economists that have studied the topic and disagree with you have no idea of what they're talking about, and that you know better.
  • DS
    David S.
    22 July 2020 @ 01:08
    Were the rebates included so that the frugal countries' portion of grants will be returned to them as rebates? If so, it looks like the rest of the EU countries will be funding all the grants. DLS
  • MJ
    Marcus J.
    22 July 2020 @ 00:16
    Australia is a federal country much more similar to the United States than Europe but state borders have been closed here to contain the spread of the virus
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      22 July 2020 @ 00:22
      Good point. Could be done in the US too. But I don’t think it will happen
  • RO
    Robert O.
    21 July 2020 @ 23:48
    I guess you might have missed what happened to the silver and gold price today. Move along, nothing here to see.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      22 July 2020 @ 00:02
      We saw it https://twitter.com/edwardnh/status/1285626571676626944?s=21 It just wasn’t what was moving markets. The euro deal was.
  • MT
    MICHAEL T.
    21 July 2020 @ 22:21
    Guys, so much talk with little "so what" guidance. All said, what does this mean and what actions do you advise now for investments? A lIttle less talk, a lot more positioning advice. :)
    • AJ
      Adam J.
      21 July 2020 @ 22:27
      That’s not the point of the daily briefing. This information is available in other videos and the longer form pieces
    • AD
      Antonio D.
      21 July 2020 @ 23:25
      Raoul's personal trading portfolio has been since Q2 2020: 25% bitcoin, 25% gold, 25% tradable securities, 25% cash It's been a strong position. What else is there you are looking for from a macro investment thesis?
  • RT
    Richard T.
    21 July 2020 @ 23:23
    It would be more illuminating if the total deaths were presented demographically, not in gross. N'est ce pas?
  • SN
    Shmuel N.
    21 July 2020 @ 22:54
    so much optimism for the European Failure, I guess no optimism remained to the US?