Tyler, How does buying retail order flow make companies like Citadel or Virtu money? Does that privy them to know where limit orders and stops exist? I figure market orders get routed to best bid/offer through them but can they jump these orders? Thanks

Mr. Neville what is your job description at RVTV since no title was given? DLS

A breath of fresh air. I hope this means Mr. Neville is on the RVTV Team. DLS

So is this large retail traffic flow Millenials and Gen xers ? or is this a pullback from the market by the big boys expecting a crash ? is the Tesla trade then a result of what the retail trader likes without using fundamental or technical analysis

Great as always!! Thanks for putting on subtitles! Helps a lot! Lucas

"Maybe pensions get funded printed money at some point?" And, so hope triumphs over reason.

So this goes on forever ? What are some signs Tyler is looking for to bail on the long play ?

Boomer love, Tyler. Keep it coming.

Tyler Neville is totally 100% my generation. Not really an x-er, not really a millennial, right in between.

Tyler has turned me from a bear to a bear-bull. Great chat.

Great talk. Super interesting final 7 words by Tyler: "Hope I pissed off all your subscribers". A tongue and cheek swipe at generational divide (a fairly common sentiment here in ATX)? Got me wondering, exactly what is the RV subscriber age demographic?

Interesting discussion. But with the market structure and these flows, why the downturn in March? Did I miss something? Granted, Trump and the Treasury will be charging hard come this fall, but until then? Very much liked the comment about UBI as the debt jubilee.

It is good to hear the young man preface his "flows" talk with a mention of fundamentals. I was weaned on fundamentals and it has taken a decade-plus to realize today's markets are for the most part divorced from the traditional P/E and P/B markers. According to Tyler, nowadays it is all about equity stakes and cash on hand. I personally like net profits but that is coming from a mid-GenX'er who can't break away from fundamentals. That is why I missed Tesla and Amazon.

Epic Mike Green interview related to what Tyler was talking about at 9:00: https://ttmygh.podbean.com/e/teg_0003/

Good conversation. Should mention the flip side of passive too. When Vanguard and Blackrock have to sell, they also sell at any price. So if the bid dries up and there are even modest redemptions in passive funds, things can get ugly very fast. That’s why I thing having a long vol position in the portfolio is a must.

Good interview Ed - was going well till the last comment (Tyler) ?? Anyway, did Tyler actually state that these off market liquidity pools still impact the "tape" ie. the price of the stocks they are dealing (off market liq)? I don't believe that - these brokers (who act as Principal) would have to trade somehow (hedge for example) to impact the price. Otherwise they are just tracking the price and their liquidity flows are neutral to the market price. I think Tyler said that despite the macro he is seeing a bullish case (a simple summary) - which is not a dumb observation I guess. Cheers lads.

A bunch of that went CLEAN over my head. When he (Tyler) talks about the things going on in public markets that traders 'don't know how to articulate', I don't think he did a great job articulating it either, frankly. Love to understand, sounds important. Maybe Ed can give a cheat sheet for those of us dodos who didn't get it.

I didn't follow the part about commission-free retail trades go into an internal wholesaler and liquidity is 50% of market but is reflected in price action inaccessible to institutions. Does anyone have some insight into how this works? Thanks.

Please invite Tyler back. Thanks

The debt jubilee might be UBI. Excellent point that I've been thinking of as well. They can't wipe out the creditors in one move because of how disruptive that would be. Instead you slowly boil them and transfer wealth from retirees to wage earners and from those holding claims on future wealth (e.g. growth stocks/bonds) to those holding real wealth (e.g. productive/hard assets).

Interesting to see is the stock market (DJI) since march is in lockstep with ETH and Gold. Great discussion guys.

Great discussion. Tyler seems to bring a fresh and insightful perspective to RV. Well done.

Great discussion :)

Great show today guys. Loved Tyler’s take on microstructure. You also covered two things that have been bothering me.....how this could be setting up for a blow off top and how the pension needs/expectations of the Baby Boomers (current ruling class) have to be met. Even at the expense of their kids and grandkids. Thanks so much.

I like your interviews Ed. Please keep them coming.

this was great. please do lots of these types of daily briefings. same as the M.R. one. adds a good balance to mix. nice for the the shorter time frame traders. the bearish global macro theme is valid but toxic to the shorter time frame if not put into proper context.

Teddy Vallee's "chart today on 5-year real yields are super negative" ...... anyone got a link to this chart?

This was very interesting!

Enjoyed Tyler Neville's fascinating no BS discussion. Thanks!

A pleasant surprise, this. Cheers.

Sensational.

This was terrific

very refreshing daily briefing...clear and no bull shit....great epic phrases. Bring him back whenever possible..

Well THAT was interesting....didn't disagree with much of what was said. Felt like front running order flow by the dark pools and those firms paying for order flow got skirted around. Ben Graham would be rolling over in his grave. Big question or elephant in the room...with this carefully constructed framework per Raoul, what could go wrong? Or could another black swan show up again at an opportune time to throw a monkey wrench into the gears?...lol. Great job Ed and guest!

RV Notes 9/9/2020 * Micro-structure: * New emergence of retail traders in past year * Commission-free retail trades go into an internal wholesaler (i.e. this is 50% of TSLA) * Internal wholesaler liquidity is 50% of market but is reflected in price action inaccessible to institutions (not sure this is accurate in my notes) * VanGuard, BlackRock, etc, can’t keep up so they buy stock with all inflows available, further driving up the price. * My own conclusion: no large institutional sellers = stonks go up until that changes * Bull market can go on longer than we may think * 1997 had ~7k public companies, now ~3500 * Fed liquidity and retail money is chasing fewer companies / assets * Trillions in buybacks removing float (public available stock) * In 2000 only ~5% float, most mainly held by insiders * Fundamental analysis has sexy jargon and makes you look smart but retail doesn’t care * Passive vs. Active: mutual funds are being re-allocated to passive funds (5% cash vs. basically zero cash) * Political triggering event (HK dollar peg or FAANG break-up) may change things * Massive in-flows of cash into ETFs and passive funds * Market-cap weighted indices reflect high growth stocks with high liquidity from retail * Money forced to move into market-weighted assets * Creates bubble, herd-like effects * Hedge funds seeing lower vol and value-at-risk and are levering up for returns in equities * High fee hedge fund structure is disappearing slowly due to mediocre performance * Bond market has very low yields * Owning a Treasury is like owning a Put that you’re getting paid for but no growth * Old companies are capitalized with lots of expensive debt * New growth stocks capitalized with equity and cash (VC, PE, IPOs, etc.) * Debt is a tax on future earnings/income * Nobody wants to pay an active manager when passive management outperforms long-term * Pensions i.e. CalPERS starting to use leverage, looking for returns * Complete disconnect with current economic reality * Leaves most of society behind, massive inequality, globalization, etc. * “Elephant in the room” * In a W-shaped recovery will make disconnect even larger as cash continues to concentrate * Social unrest, call for billionaire taxes, will become an election issue * Currently undergoing ’generational arbitrage’ where younger people are moving to low cost of living areas * Old politicians will do everything, anything, within their power to keep the system going * Retirement crisis - a backdrop - is a solution that needs to be solved with high asset prices * Pensions may just be funded with printed money, causing inflation concerns * UBI is a real possibility if this gets extreme = possible debt jubilee manifestation

More Tyler, please.

Tyler's perspective is a great complement to the fundamental analysis.

Bring Tyler back on when it all goes tit's up.. Seriously, just keep printing. Got a good laugh out of that.. Joe R.

"As long as there is promise of future growth somewhere.. (market will go up)" "They won't let deflation happen.." "This might be a raging bull market in the face of an economy that's never been worse.." A refreshingly astute young man this Tyler Neville is. Bravo.

Great segment and good interview, Ed. . I really enjoyed Tyler and would love to see him back again.

Interesting, thanks. Could anyone tell what's behind USDTRY for the last 15 days it's like it's pegged... but I haven't seen such news

Geritocracy I love it! I'm 39, and thoroughly enjoying this sh*tshow

Love to see ATX well represented on the Daily Briefing. Well done RV

The overwhelming response I've seen from the millennial traders is "this time is different" Maybe it will be.

Thanks ED Makes perfect sense!!!

Awesome. Really liked having him on

Excellent - Let's have Tyler back again at some point!

Awesome. So, there is supposed to be a big hole in the economy that sucks up all of the stimulus money. Apparently not happening. Are the marginal flows therefore caused by loan forbearance - a temporary bridge over the big hole? Does this mean it can turn with a vengeance when people have to start paying their bills again?

Great interview, really enjoyed the discussion topics.

Great work Ed