Daily Briefing – June 8, 2020

Published on
June 8th, 2020
Duration
21 minutes


Daily Briefing – June 8, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Ed Harrison

Published on: June 8th, 2020 • Duration: 21 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison map out their framework for the rest of 2020. Ed and Ash look at the steepening yield curve and the continued ascent of U.S. equities. Ed gives additional color to his macro thesis and reflects on his bullish call in April on Europe's re-opening. Ed and Ash also look forward to the upcoming interviews with Michael Howell and Darius Dale. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a look at the rising tensions between Germany and the ECB.

Comments

Transcript

  • jR
    james R.
    8 June 2020 @ 23:25
    i said it 6 weeks ago, you need tactical bulls like kuppy in the rotation. Greer is also someone who’s opinion needs to be on the daily briefing at least a month...he nailed the big call over a month ago.
    • SM
      Shawn M.
      9 June 2020 @ 01:09
      Nailed what? I remember Greer talking about shorting 3030. We are at 3217 on the /ES as I am writing this. Look all you are getting here are well thought out opinions on mainly Macro events and I am sure if you can prove your ability to pick which way this market is going to go Rauol would be more than willing to give you a chance to step up to the bat.
    • SM
      Shawn M.
      9 June 2020 @ 01:17
      No disrespect to Greer by the way. I'm sure he's a fantastic trader and got it wrong like the rest of us do from time to time especially when the timeframe is short.
    • vg
      vincent g.
      9 June 2020 @ 02:49
      Tony was early but he didn't get short, just closed out his positions, Subscribe to his news letter, he's pretty good on his timing, he's pretty conservative but pretty close on the money.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      9 June 2020 @ 03:13
      Number of technicians were calling for 2900 to 3000. Saw a top target of 3080. Believe this additional 200 points is surprising everyone.
    • JL
      James L.
      9 June 2020 @ 20:21
      Kuppy's tankers have gone nowhere since he was on.
    • jR
      james R.
      10 June 2020 @ 04:46
      Kuppy was laughed at on Market Huddle for declaring full tilt buying in late March. Btw, I’m up 20% on his EuroNav tanker rec. They pay sweet div’s too.
  • jg
    john g.
    10 June 2020 @ 02:27
    It came to my attention RealVision must be picking up criticism for not being more optimistic about the direction and velocity of the stock market. I find this unfair. If we assume the market was fairly priced in mid-February (I think it was overbought), the question is when do profits recover to the pre-Covid levels? There are headwinds. Unemployment/Bankruptcies [it takes years to recover job losses after a recession], Covid changed industries [about 10% of the economy may never return to pre-Covid levels], trillions of additional government debt [doesn’t keep me up at night, but will slow growth]. Where are the profits coming from? Conventional wisdom says the stock market looks 9 months forward. Today the stock market is looking at 2022 profits. What I heard from RealVision is soon “the chickens will come home to roost” and stocks will reprice. I agree.
  • DS
    David S.
    9 June 2020 @ 19:11
    Mr. Lacy Hunt in a great interview stated that the Fed's monetary expansion does not get into the stock market. Every time the Fed increases money supply the market goes up. Every time the Fed decreases the money supply the market goes down. Much of the inflation from the increased money supply appears in the market rapidly. I believe the liquidity is feed into the market by the big banks and hedge funds. As the inflation hits the stock market a lot of other investors jump in. Mr. Hunt disagrees. It would be nice to have the linkage between monetary expansion and the stock market recoveries. This does not happen in a vacuum. Thanks. DLS
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      9 June 2020 @ 19:56
      It's due to psychological factors, "forward guidance" = what others call jawboning.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      9 June 2020 @ 21:09
      I believe it is mainly psychological but there is at least one component of liquidity provided by the fed that had a direct impact on the equity market prior to the collapse and it may have a huge impact once again: the repurchase agreements (repo's). As far as I understand it, it allows big market participants that have access to it (e.g. big banks and hedge funds) to trade with leverage at minimal cost (just 0.1% at current rates), using treasuries and mortgage backed securities as collateral. They need to reverse the trade (reverse repo) after 1 business day or 20 business days depending on the agreement but in the mean time they have liquidity to provide to third parties or use it directly for leveraged trades. In principle it should not exist. The money markets should take care of it but due to cracks in the system in Sept 2019, the fed is acting as liquidity provider. It impacts the market because the liquidity comes at lower cost and, at least temporary, increases the liquidity in to the equity and derivatives market. So it fuels the bubble. The collapse in Feb/March happened after a 5 month run up in accepted repo liquidity to a level of about 100 billion USD daily. Since late March, repo activity dropped to 10% or less of the peak activity. However since late May it suddenly came back and now we see days of 75 to 120 billion USD in repo. I wonder if it once again inflates the bubble? Also, are we seeing the first signs of another liquidity crunch? It would be great if Roger or somebody else could dig in to this.
    • DS
      David S.
      10 June 2020 @ 00:40
      Peter C - Thank for the comment. The real push for me come from the big banks and hedge funds with massive leverage from QE. After they get it going, then the psychological effects on other investors amplifies the move. Dr. Roubini was discussing this hedge fund activity in the repo market in his last interview. It is impossible for me to think that the Fed wants to allow this. Since Mr. Hunt did not think any significant part of QE could possibly get into the stock market, maybe the rest of the Fed believes the same thing. If the Fed wanted to stop this cozy arrangement, they could by putting covenants in the lending programs. It is therefore reasonable for me to conclude that the Fed supports the ballooning of the stock market This is the Feds new self-imposed mandate - protect the wealthy and pension funds. Regardless it keeps the market in balloon mode and not in a valuation mode. This is the most unkindest cut of all – paraphrase WS. The Fed promoting economic instability. DLS
  • GS
    Gary S.
    8 June 2020 @ 22:15
    90% of RV narrative has been no V recovery. Show me where you got any of these correct. USD up - wrong EUR breakdown - wrong AUD down - wrong Gold up - wrong BTC breakout over 10k - failed, wrong Bonds yiled to zero - Wrong Stocks ...Raoul GMI piece said Google 60% down!!! - Wrong Even 1.5 years back you had the biggest B/S from Grant on Tesla .... wrong
    • AN
      Andrew N.
      8 June 2020 @ 22:33
      They did a fundamental macro analysis and called it like they saw it. Most of the behavior you've cited have been due to a disconnected market, arguably due to the fed, and probably short term.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      8 June 2020 @ 22:47
      Gary they said they're going to make an effort to diversify opinion. Get off their case
    • DA
      David A.
      8 June 2020 @ 23:38
      Trades based upon macro trend analysis can take six months, or more, to play out. A dead cat bounce from a historic low base looks like a "V recovery" before the next leg down. From my perspective, Raul's thesis on USD, EUR, Gold, and zero bond yields are still in play if COVID-19 returns with a vengeance during flu season. Meanwhile, the trend is your friend.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      8 June 2020 @ 23:43
      Agree about many of the assessments on the narrative. Large factor is that the Fed crossed several red lines. I thought this was the big one. I was surprised the Fed came out as heavy and early as they did. I guess I and others are guilty of doubting the veracity of the gods. I don't fault RV or Raoul for this. That said we are about month three of an event that will last, according to the most optimistic estimate of Q1 2021, 18 months out, where Q1 2021 is the earliest that US GDP gets back to Jan 2020 levels. And, there are a slew of risks that the markets are not taking into account. I suspect that pointing out these gaps in the narrative vs. short-term reality is a case of having missed this 40% gain. I've gained about 3% during a period that there was a 40% gain. What a mistake I made. What does seem certain that the dogs...."gods" I mean....cannot address is the earnings for the next six to eight quarters.
    • MS
      Marcus S.
      8 June 2020 @ 23:47
      We all get it wrong at times...but I'd also make the point that they highlighted in the piece that it all depends on your time horizons. I also thought things would turn a little quicker than it seems they might...but then - never fight the fed...ringing true once again...As a small biz owner, we haven't quite felt the longer-term pain yet but it is coming...
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      8 June 2020 @ 23:49
      Not sure where you get Gold down from, plus USD ripped hard prior to it weakening. BTC's breakout was false, but the chart still looks good to me. Learn patience if you want to trade Macro, or stick to day trading if your time horizons are as short as they appear to be from the context of your comments.
    • RA
      Robert A.
      9 June 2020 @ 00:00
      Spot on observations Gary. The only thing I might note is a square root mark looks like a V....right up until it doesn’t—let’s see what the RO numbers look like 2 weeks apres’ the bulk of the Protests have taken place. Been a little frustrated myself in not being able to pull the trigger on Julian’s Macro Insider trades based upon a tactical US $ weakening due to Raoul’s steadfast juxtaposed $ Strength Position. Julian’s trades have done REALLY well. RV has always espoused “get the dollar right as it’s the key to almost all of the Macro trades“—Raoul says it’s still in a channel and just “noise”, but to my eye it’s getting awfully close to a bust out to the downside. One thing I’ve learned from RV is patience...I may miss some good tactical trades, but hopefully getting the longer term Macro moves right will preserve my wealth.
    • GR
      Gabriel R.
      9 June 2020 @ 00:48
      Right now everyone's FOMO could be the indicator that the bubble is about to pop. Everyone's starting to second guess themselves, which should tell us something about what is going on right now.
    • AA
      Alberto A.
      9 June 2020 @ 03:08
      I guess you didnt trade the Eurodollars, bonds, and HYG. I did and quite happy. Also, Julian trades has been spot on. Are you a Pro subscriber?
    • RM
      Robert M.
      9 June 2020 @ 03:28
      Going to second Gabriel R's comment in this thread. With this run, everyone is questioning their position. But if you look at the chart, it has now become a moon shot, and throughout history, moon shots come back to earth. As far as gold, a bunch of big names are saying to buy. This is not a one month trade but a five year trade. This recent pullback has allowed me to add to my positions. When stocks are going one way, doesn't mean there aren't other things to buy. And the comments about bonds being the macro trade were interesting.
    • JE
      J E.
      9 June 2020 @ 12:43
      Sorry guys this hurts but it's true. Now, time horizon is a whole other factor... I personally still think the V recovery is BS, but the Fed is winning the marketing campaign - until we get the next scare where everyone gets to see the hoary house of cards that is the US again.
    • JL
      James L.
      9 June 2020 @ 20:20
      Feb-Apr if you'd followed the RP trades you'd have made a pile on long bonds and shorting commodities, and on the way out bought gold and bonds which both bounced back rapidly. There have been quite a few bullish equity guys on since then.
  • RT
    R T.
    9 June 2020 @ 17:47
    Is'nt the HedgeEye Quad model is nothing but a rehash of Harry brown's permanent portfolio?
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      9 June 2020 @ 20:00
      LOL, it's a little more than that... :D
  • RT
    R T.
    9 June 2020 @ 17:47
    Is'nt the HedgeEye Quad model is nothing but a rehash of Harry brown's permanent portfolio?
  • JG
    Jordan G.
    9 June 2020 @ 16:40
    Hey check out those two good lookin' guys on the cover!
  • DA
    David A.
    8 June 2020 @ 22:59
    Since the first week in March, the Fed’s balance sheet has increased from $4.29tn to $7.21tn on June 3rd. Equally important to the $2.92tn. of new QE, is Powell’s repeated “forward guidance” (aka “The Powell Put”). Accordingly, investors have been emboldened to buy $1tn of US corporate debt issuance and US stocks during the current health and economic crisis. Going forward, will the upcoming reduction in net liquidity caused by the significant increase in Treasury issuance to fund this year’s growing budget deficit (currently $3.8tn.) undermine investor confidence in the Powell Put? A note of caution from Benjamin Graham: “'In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Obviously, today’s market strength is entirely dependent on sentiment (Graham’s voters), in the absence of hard data necessary to weigh valuations. Many sentiment indicators are at levels that have preceded market tops.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      8 June 2020 @ 23:19
      So I think that quote from Graham is totally appropriate. It's a voting machine, and the Fed / Gov is giving people ballots which eventually bids up assets. Once we actually return to normal, they put on the (fiscal) breaks, they need to get their ballots (cash) from income in the real economy. That's when the hangover hits. However, I don't think liquidity is a concern with the Fed cutting back on QE, so long as they keep the reserve requirements for banks at zero (changed like a month or so ago) and keep repo open and at a low rate. The way it's set up now, the Gov. Is spending money from the Fed, which eventually ends up on bank balance sheets. I think the banks just keep buying the bonds, which creates a perpetual money printing machine, even when the Fed turns the QE taps off
    • DA
      David A.
      9 June 2020 @ 00:12
      Bevin, I think we have a difference of opinion on the liquidity available to support bullish sentiment. Currently, the Fed holds $4,134,356 in Treasuries. In the absence of China and other customary buyers, the Fed's balance sheet will be overwhelmed with new issues; reducing the net liquidity available for HYG, etcetera. Accordingly, my thesis is that new Treasury issuance (trillions) will call into question the viability of the Powell Put,. I don't dispute your understanding of the ability of banks to lend. For commercial banks to provide liquidity for the economy and financial markets, I defer to Lacey Hunt. I'm sure that we both agree that investor sentiment is critical in the absence of companies having any idea what their revenues will be in Q3&4, much less 2021! Accordingly, I'm looking at net liquidity (less Treasuries on the balance sheet) as a possible game changer....especially on a day when BA pops 10!!!
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      9 June 2020 @ 00:58
      The Feds balance sheet is infinite. Currently there are $3.2 trillion of excess reserves on banks balance sheets. As long as the gov recycles this via PPP loans / unemployment insurance, they can stimulate demand (which bids up assets via savings as it works it's way through the system)
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      9 June 2020 @ 00:59
      It really hinges on the gov appetite / political ability to run deficits
    • SM
      Shawn M.
      9 June 2020 @ 01:14
      With that said Bevyn we should just buy with both hands because there isn't a politician left with a set of balls big enough to stand in the way of the big bully.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      9 June 2020 @ 01:21
      😂😂😂 Right? Fiscal conservatism is dead and gone Elevated inflation will be the bigger bully, but that's prob a while off
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      9 June 2020 @ 01:27
      Low inflation assumes the private sector balance sheet recession is going to kick in high gear. Otherwise crowding out would cause inflation and / or liquidity issues
    • SB
      Stewart B.
      9 June 2020 @ 08:09
      Please consider this. Over the next year, the SP500 grinds its way to over 5,000. All those who have tried to short it have been smashed. In hindsight, how would we explain it to ourselves? This is probably our blindspot now. Hint, 'Window Guidance'. This isn't a forecast. But it is more a way of testing our bearish bias/thesis.
    • DA
      David A.
      9 June 2020 @ 14:35
      Correction: ....especially on a day when BA pops 10%! Bevin RE: "The Feds balance sheet is infinite." Respectfully, the advocates for MMT recognize that the issuance of a fiat currency, including sovereign debt in one's own currency, is constrained by devaluation, and or hyperinflation. Today, a weaker dollar and an increase in inflation are desirable. However, the subject is investor sentiment: When would you be concerned that we reached the tipping point? For me, $10tn and GDP <2% is the limit.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      9 June 2020 @ 16:31
      I'd need to see structural change that fundamentlaly favors labor over capital and/or changes that favor physical investment over savings. We live in a world of excess savings and excess capacity (supported by the Fed/Gov). Look up the savings glut theory.
  • MT
    Mike T.
    9 June 2020 @ 13:35
    as I scrolled through the comments below, I'm struck by how folks are really critical of recent RV commentary, recent Hedgeye commentary etc. So many continually looking for others to provide answers??? And if the 'others' have a bad day (bad two months) then the subscribers turn negative. If ever there was a good advert of why people should learn how to use undefined risk short premium (selling) options strategies, this thread is it. At this point I can almost hear folks thinking undefined risk? That's madness! Well take a couple of years to get educated then at a future point in time the following becomes possible ......... the primary benefit of undefined risk being, IF assuming one is not Capital constrained verses the number of established positions, undefined risk provides an almost unlimited number of management/adjustment techniques, if once a position is established the market goes against you, e.g. if not sufficiently long, roll up existing puts/or sell more puts, need to get more short, roll down existing calls/sell more new calls, need more time, roll out to next cycle, add additional legs, subtract legs etc. Also If a there is an extreme move up or down out of hours, learn how to use futures to hedge your portfolio. The point of the above is simply to say, if you know how to play defence with short premium (selling) option strategies AND you stick to only the most liquid underlyings it becomes much easier to make really fast decisions when entering new positions, put simply it's not necessary to need all the answers beforehand about what happening in with market direction, sweat about what might happen, if an established position turns out to be set up wrong, i.e. market is turning against you, with undefined risk, you can always adjust, change, managed, manipulate/reducing risk, all without adding more capital to the trade. Simplistic to say I know, but on a daily basis simply let market movement tell you what to do, this approach only works with undefined risk option selling aka short premium. With defined risk option strategies e.g. Condors, Spreads it is much more difficult to adjust.
    • DA
      David A.
      9 June 2020 @ 14:08
      Or, more simply put, do what the algos do: Sell Vega.
  • LK
    Lenka K.
    8 June 2020 @ 22:35
    The question Im asking myself is what happened to Darius Dale. He showed some info which was contradicting Keith´s point of view. Did he get kicked out of Hedgeye or is he still member of a team? Gotta admit the Keith´s deep Q4 call and transition into Q3 doesnt add up at least in the short term...
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      8 June 2020 @ 22:49
      I wouldn't be surprised if he left. He's super humble and a good dude vs arrogant Keith. Keith drives me up a wall, have to take him in small doses
    • DS
      David S.
      8 June 2020 @ 23:44
      I do like the quadrant analysis. DLS
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      8 June 2020 @ 23:46
      Darius is still very much at Hedgeye. I'm a subscriber and enjoy the humour Keith brings to the table.
    • jh
      jun h.
      9 June 2020 @ 02:10
      Forget all the fricking quad 1,2,3,4 stuff nobody can predict the mkt. Just wait for the pull back and buy the deep. It worked last 10 yrs so do it until it doesnt. Overbought mkt take some $ off and oversold mkt buy some $.
    • vg
      vincent g.
      9 June 2020 @ 02:51
      Hedgeye is a bust, late to every trade.. I've never scene a guy pat himself on the back more than Keith.
    • JE
      J E.
      9 June 2020 @ 12:47
      As a Hedgeye sub, I miss that big guy... Can't wait to see him- Luckily, I didn't follow HE into shorting this rally too aggressively like I did in Jan 2019. It's not the first time.. That said, the long calls have been very good.
  • IP
    IDA P.
    9 June 2020 @ 04:53
    as for sentiment, there is not one person or analyst who is bearish, everyone is stating yes it will end bad but not now, the ones who are bearish have gone into hiding, and I have noticed lots of bullying (retail traders bullying professionals)
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      9 June 2020 @ 12:25
      Keith McCullough of Hedgeye and Raoul are still bearish. I appreciate that when you've got armies of morons on Robinhood buying up the stock of companies who've announced bankruptcy filings, it must be difficult though.
  • TG
    Terry G.
    9 June 2020 @ 05:06
    That Keith dude from Hedgeye is a coconut - not sure why RV is falling over carrying his balls. Keith is always calling the moves, always making money, always calling that he forewarned certain things. Totally conniving.
    • JC
      John C.
      9 June 2020 @ 07:02
      He has admitted he did very poorly the last few weeks while being short FWIW.
    • SB
      Stewart B.
      9 June 2020 @ 07:59
      Hedgeye has had a rough month with trade recommendations. There is not a single investor who publishes their trades who doesn't go through this at some stage. Please be a bit forgiving. This is a tough game. What is important about Hedgeye is that they have a documented process which backtests well. Like all forecasts, it should be taken with a grain of salt. Please keep Darius, Keith etc coming back.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      9 June 2020 @ 12:23
      Keith has had a rough few weeks. However, overall his process works well. You won't find many of them with a hit rate of over 70%. As Keith likes to say, if you want a process that works 100% of this time, talk to this bloke: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/20/bernie-madoff-prison-photos
  • PS
    Patrick S.
    9 June 2020 @ 02:10
    Can we get Tony Greer TGMacro back on the show for some update on technical indicators and his views on asset rotation?
    • PS
      Patrick S.
      9 June 2020 @ 02:12
      Specifically would love to cover topics on short positioning / VIX suppression and how these dynamics might break upside on equities Yes... we all know we are in a bubble... we see the ticking time bomb ... we see disaster ahead. But let's juice that upside as much as possible shall we?
    • JC
      John C.
      9 June 2020 @ 07:05
      Would be great to get Tony back as he called the move to 3000 and was long. He has been more cautious of late -- would be great to get his latest views. Also to get Christian Fromhertz's technical views (he is still somewhat bullish)
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      9 June 2020 @ 12:07
      I remember everyone was complaining about Tony Greer when he was on last, and now everyone in the comments is asking for him back. Just shows how important it is to have an open mind and think outside your comfort zone. Personally I really appreciated his last video, and would like to see him back too.
  • NL
    Nikolas L.
    9 June 2020 @ 04:05
    "The riots" Ed?
    • JC
      John C.
      9 June 2020 @ 07:03
      Well there have been a lot of riots in the US. Protests have not always been very peaceful - that is a fact.
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      9 June 2020 @ 12:04
      He means it is the rioting that is causing the economic damage, not that there weren't peaceful protests as well. Economically burning down business is going to have a depressing effect so it needs to be talked about in an economic context.
  • jg
    jesse g.
    9 June 2020 @ 10:49
    Thanks Ash and Ed, and Jack! looking forward to your Darius Dale interview now!
  • AM
    Ania M.
    9 June 2020 @ 10:47
    What about getting David Hunter on, he has maintained a bullish view for quite a while now and his market melt up theory is playing out....
  • RD
    Ruediger D.
    9 June 2020 @ 01:39
    In my opinion one has a good chance to make some money going short within the next 9 days with a time horizon "end of the year" as there are 4 chances for a sunstantial downmove: a) Following the demonstrations (people standing close together wearing no masks and crying out loud like singing in a church) the infection numbers in New York and Washington DC could all of a sudden turn to the upside (icubation time of 9 days left). Few superspreaders would be sufficiant. This would change the narrative of "We've been through!" into "Second wave's already here". Even a rumour would be enoght. b) Publishing of earnings in the third quarter might lead to the narrative "bancrupsy wave ahead" c) ELection in November d) Any unprdictable sudden event with negativ impact If one of these event happens the market will start to move down and this would make the new Robin Hooders with their calls panic and start the avalange. What do you think of this? And if you agree.... what konkrete Derivat would you buy (I'm not experienced enought to choose the right one myself). Thank's a lot and please excuse my insufficiant English
    • TS
      Tom S.
      9 June 2020 @ 02:13
      Somewhat more colorfully put, but exactly my point (below).
    • RM
      Robert M.
      9 June 2020 @ 03:32
      Looking to put some Put options in place right now. With the put/call ratio at record lows, this is the time to get a position set up for end of the year. And for those tracking the numbers, the virus is turning back up in the US. New cases and new deaths have bottomed and curved back up. With all the social interaction were are seeing, this will be an issue in the next month. Markets seen to have forgotten about it.
    • RD
      Ruediger D.
      9 June 2020 @ 08:36
      Thank's for your answers, Tom and Chis. I hoped that somebody would help me by giving a link to a produkt to use for this purpose.
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    9 June 2020 @ 08:02
    I really enjoy your daily briefings. (enjoyed with a coffee each morning). Thoughtful and open minded. Thank you.
  • KT
    Kay T.
    9 June 2020 @ 07:50
    Kudos Ed for reiterating the initiative to bring in even more diverse views across more time horizons so that viewers can absorb the different perspectives and assess the pros and cons of each stance on their own. Think this will help all of us develop better frameworks in assessing the probabilities of what could or could not happen for the journey ahead.
  • JC
    John C.
    9 June 2020 @ 07:08
    Kudos to Ed for calling the over-bearishness in April and now saying short term this market could contine to run. He nailed that call IMO. Would be interested in getting his views on the recent big bond selloff. Trend or just a blip? Will Powell talk about YCC at the Fed meeting tomorrow as a result of these big recent yield spikes? Where does he think rates are headed? Thanks.
  • IP
    IDA P.
    9 June 2020 @ 04:47
    Dear Ed Harrison, for me the problem here in the last few weeks is that while you said you were bullish on Europe, Raoul Pal in particular has always been saying this is the hope phase, I know he gives a medium term outlook, but 3 months for me is a medium term, so even though I respect you and also Julian Bridgen who was short term bullish, I have received conflicting messages here, so it's like: yes they are bullish, but it will be really short or it will be wrong because Raoul Pal says it is only hope. I'm not saying any of you were wrong, but it has been difficult to manage the conflicting signals, so you tend to be very very prudent. I would also not that real interest rates in Germany have been rising which is usually negative for the dax in particular, but this hasn't been affronted. Maybe sometimes you should include some subscribers in the morning chat to have a more confrontational debate, just an idea
    • IP
      IDA P.
      9 June 2020 @ 05:58
      by the way here is an excellent article with graph which puts into context the effect of M2 https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/58093/fx-weekly-eurphoria-and-panic-ycc by A. Larsen who has been on the show in the past, really smart guy please get him back
  • BA
    Bob A.
    9 June 2020 @ 05:48
    I think there is little chance the Senate will not vote to renew just about every rescue package expiring in the future. It would be political suicide to do anything else.
  • IP
    IDA P.
    9 June 2020 @ 05:13
    thank you in advance for inviting Howell
  • TT
    Tokyo T.
    9 June 2020 @ 00:27
    Hedgeye's quad model failed to deal with all the liquidity in the market. It shows that even if you have a fancy framework and 50 staff supporting you, nobody knows how the market will react day-to-day. Keith is loud and rude (but sometimes funny). That's his entertainment brand. Please remember he makes all of his money from subscription revenue and not from trading/investing. He has an imaginary portfolio at all-time highs every month. Of course, his net worth is not transparent to subs. Think about that before you devote your allegiance to him or other gurus.
    • GC
      Gino C.
      9 June 2020 @ 00:47
      Right. Keith’s primary trade two months ago was to short Tech Stocks. Thanks a lot Keith. 👎
    • jh
      jun h.
      9 June 2020 @ 02:03
      Bottom line is most of these guys are investors not traders. If you want to make money as a trader timing is so important not the fundamentals. I miss everytime because of this problem.
    • vg
      vincent g.
      9 June 2020 @ 02:47
      Hedgeye is getting destroyed on the short side, BYD, HLT, MAR, GOLF, MDLA, Brent, i could go on and on, he doesn't show those loses, starting going short 3 weeks ago, that didn't work out well.. You're better off following El Presidente.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      9 June 2020 @ 03:02
      Some real BS here. Keith's trading history is there for anybody who subscribes to Hedgeye. Quad process has killed it for me this year; particularly long trades in Gold, US Treasuries, and the USD, but then again, my trade horizon is longer than just a couple of days in a frothy liquidity-saturated market...
    • TG
      Terry G.
      9 June 2020 @ 05:06
      That Keith dude is a coconut - not sure why RV is falling over carrying his balls. Keith is always calling the moves, always making money, always calling that he forewarned certain things. Totally conniving.
  • IP
    IDA P.
    9 June 2020 @ 04:59
    Time horizon: most investors have a time horizon of 3-5 years, but that doesn't mean you can be wrong on a 3 month time horizon.
  • XM
    Xavier M.
    9 June 2020 @ 03:57
    Excellent as always. One can tell Ed is working hard on his off days. Rest up Ed. We need you. I like the the idea of bringing on diverse opinions such as Mr. Howell’s. Nevertheless, as stated, time horizons are key. Mr. Pal’s outlook is still very much in play. USD, Gold, EUR, bond yields. Covid round two, trade wars, Hong Kong, social unrest and even locusts in South Asia are enough to strike terror in the hearts of even the most confident of bulls. Cheers.
  • OC
    Otto C.
    9 June 2020 @ 01:30
    I can't see how new money would justify entering bullish trades at this stage. The opportunity at these levels is for the bears.
    • OC
      Otto C.
      9 June 2020 @ 01:58
      Nasdaq seems to be completing wedge pattern and S&P is at top of channel.
  • TS
    Tom S.
    9 June 2020 @ 01:30
    Something I ponder watching recent protests and riots: Did anyone notice a whole lot of social distancing? One of the great inequalities in America is healthcare. Black Lives do Matter. But so far, saving those lives hasn’t seemed a priority. We’ll know in a couple of weeks whether Ed’s incubator moment has already arrived.
  • MH
    Muddshir H.
    9 June 2020 @ 00:15
    Ed can you bring tony greer ?
  • MT
    Mark T.
    8 June 2020 @ 22:11
    Does anyone look at things from a long-term lens anymore?
    • MR
      Michael R.
      8 June 2020 @ 22:54
      I think noone has any idea about the long term with CB and Government largesse coupled with social unrest worldwide. Toss in COVID19 for added uncertainty. Its more about capitalizing on what you can and being defensive about what you have.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      8 June 2020 @ 23:50
      Raoul certainly does.
  • DS
    David S.
    8 June 2020 @ 23:43
    Pride goeth before a fall. DLS
  • AN
    Andrew N.
    8 June 2020 @ 22:12
    Love the new thumbnail...looks like a poster for an 80's coming-of-age movie.🤣
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      8 June 2020 @ 23:02
      I immediately thought of this goofy picture of Will Ferrell 😂 https://images.app.goo.gl/o9kQ4ojwx8b1F3Pk8
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    8 June 2020 @ 23:01
    Good talk guys, and looking forward to Mike's input on the liquidity, as I am 40% certain that I understand the whole situation
  • MR
    Michael R.
    8 June 2020 @ 22:57
    What's up with Hugh Hendry? He looks like he is ready to rip on something with Twitter. Get him on for his Master Plan for CB's. Have him shower and wear a collar this time. ;).
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    8 June 2020 @ 22:43
    Any possibility of getting Simon Hunt on again? Its been a few years. He has a bullish long term view of where we are headed over the next 2 years.
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    8 June 2020 @ 22:32
    Great briefing guys. Sorry we're such a pain in the ass 😅 Appreciate bringing new folks on the platform. Brent Johnson could be a good + I'd like to hear your opinions the implications of EM vs DM social safety nets and the implication for lost income and asset prices. I really think this is going to be a huge humanitarian crisis in EM, and DM so far seems to be way better off. Tied in with this, I've had a short gold miners position (could be tied in with long growth stocks, which I may rebalance to on a technical pull back). Thesis being that gov supported income in DM vs massive loss in income in EM will cause divergence in prices of preferred assets (growth stocks vs. gold). Curious what your thoughts are.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      8 June 2020 @ 22:41
      Also FWIW I think this trend reverses once the clouds clear in EM, I really do think gold has a 5+ year run due BECAUSE of EM outperformance, but I think a blow off top in the ratio happens first
  • SS
    S S.
    8 June 2020 @ 22:18
    is everything Okay Ed? You look extremely tired and drained in this interview despite taking a few days off. Take it easy Ed.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      8 June 2020 @ 22:34
      Steve, thanks for asking. I appreciate it. I’m fine. But I haven’t been sleeping well. So I did feel a bit drained today. It’s nothing that a few good nights of sleep can’t solve.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      8 June 2020 @ 22:38
      Thought the same thing. Nothing like a case of the Mondays. Rest well Ed