i said it 6 weeks ago, you need tactical bulls like kuppy in the rotation. Greer is also someone who’s opinion needs to be on the daily briefing at least a month...he nailed the big call over a month ago.

It came to my attention RealVision must be picking up criticism for not being more optimistic about the direction and velocity of the stock market. I find this unfair. If we assume the market was fairly priced in mid-February (I think it was overbought), the question is when do profits recover to the pre-Covid levels? There are headwinds. Unemployment/Bankruptcies [it takes years to recover job losses after a recession], Covid changed industries [about 10% of the economy may never return to pre-Covid levels], trillions of additional government debt [doesn’t keep me up at night, but will slow growth]. Where are the profits coming from? Conventional wisdom says the stock market looks 9 months forward. Today the stock market is looking at 2022 profits. What I heard from RealVision is soon “the chickens will come home to roost” and stocks will reprice. I agree.

Mr. Lacy Hunt in a great interview stated that the Fed's monetary expansion does not get into the stock market. Every time the Fed increases money supply the market goes up. Every time the Fed decreases the money supply the market goes down. Much of the inflation from the increased money supply appears in the market rapidly. I believe the liquidity is feed into the market by the big banks and hedge funds. As the inflation hits the stock market a lot of other investors jump in. Mr. Hunt disagrees. It would be nice to have the linkage between monetary expansion and the stock market recoveries. This does not happen in a vacuum. Thanks. DLS

90% of RV narrative has been no V recovery. Show me where you got any of these correct. USD up - wrong EUR breakdown - wrong AUD down - wrong Gold up - wrong BTC breakout over 10k - failed, wrong Bonds yiled to zero - Wrong Stocks ...Raoul GMI piece said Google 60% down!!! - Wrong Even 1.5 years back you had the biggest B/S from Grant on Tesla .... wrong

Is'nt the HedgeEye Quad model is nothing but a rehash of Harry brown's permanent portfolio?

Is'nt the HedgeEye Quad model is nothing but a rehash of Harry brown's permanent portfolio?

Hey check out those two good lookin' guys on the cover!

Since the first week in March, the Fed’s balance sheet has increased from $4.29tn to $7.21tn on June 3rd. Equally important to the $2.92tn. of new QE, is Powell’s repeated “forward guidance” (aka “The Powell Put”). Accordingly, investors have been emboldened to buy $1tn of US corporate debt issuance and US stocks during the current health and economic crisis. Going forward, will the upcoming reduction in net liquidity caused by the significant increase in Treasury issuance to fund this year’s growing budget deficit (currently $3.8tn.) undermine investor confidence in the Powell Put? A note of caution from Benjamin Graham: “'In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Obviously, today’s market strength is entirely dependent on sentiment (Graham’s voters), in the absence of hard data necessary to weigh valuations. Many sentiment indicators are at levels that have preceded market tops.

as I scrolled through the comments below, I'm struck by how folks are really critical of recent RV commentary, recent Hedgeye commentary etc. So many continually looking for others to provide answers??? And if the 'others' have a bad day (bad two months) then the subscribers turn negative. If ever there was a good advert of why people should learn how to use undefined risk short premium (selling) options strategies, this thread is it. At this point I can almost hear folks thinking undefined risk? That's madness! Well take a couple of years to get educated then at a future point in time the following becomes possible ......... the primary benefit of undefined risk being, IF assuming one is not Capital constrained verses the number of established positions, undefined risk provides an almost unlimited number of management/adjustment techniques, if once a position is established the market goes against you, e.g. if not sufficiently long, roll up existing puts/or sell more puts, need to get more short, roll down existing calls/sell more new calls, need more time, roll out to next cycle, add additional legs, subtract legs etc. Also If a there is an extreme move up or down out of hours, learn how to use futures to hedge your portfolio. The point of the above is simply to say, if you know how to play defence with short premium (selling) option strategies AND you stick to only the most liquid underlyings it becomes much easier to make really fast decisions when entering new positions, put simply it's not necessary to need all the answers beforehand about what happening in with market direction, sweat about what might happen, if an established position turns out to be set up wrong, i.e. market is turning against you, with undefined risk, you can always adjust, change, managed, manipulate/reducing risk, all without adding more capital to the trade. Simplistic to say I know, but on a daily basis simply let market movement tell you what to do, this approach only works with undefined risk option selling aka short premium. With defined risk option strategies e.g. Condors, Spreads it is much more difficult to adjust.

The question Im asking myself is what happened to Darius Dale. He showed some info which was contradicting Keith´s point of view. Did he get kicked out of Hedgeye or is he still member of a team? Gotta admit the Keith´s deep Q4 call and transition into Q3 doesnt add up at least in the short term...

as for sentiment, there is not one person or analyst who is bearish, everyone is stating yes it will end bad but not now, the ones who are bearish have gone into hiding, and I have noticed lots of bullying (retail traders bullying professionals)

That Keith dude from Hedgeye is a coconut - not sure why RV is falling over carrying his balls. Keith is always calling the moves, always making money, always calling that he forewarned certain things. Totally conniving.

Can we get Tony Greer TGMacro back on the show for some update on technical indicators and his views on asset rotation?

"The riots" Ed?

Thanks Ash and Ed, and Jack! looking forward to your Darius Dale interview now!

What about getting David Hunter on, he has maintained a bullish view for quite a while now and his market melt up theory is playing out....

In my opinion one has a good chance to make some money going short within the next 9 days with a time horizon "end of the year" as there are 4 chances for a sunstantial downmove: a) Following the demonstrations (people standing close together wearing no masks and crying out loud like singing in a church) the infection numbers in New York and Washington DC could all of a sudden turn to the upside (icubation time of 9 days left). Few superspreaders would be sufficiant. This would change the narrative of "We've been through!" into "Second wave's already here". Even a rumour would be enoght. b) Publishing of earnings in the third quarter might lead to the narrative "bancrupsy wave ahead" c) ELection in November d) Any unprdictable sudden event with negativ impact If one of these event happens the market will start to move down and this would make the new Robin Hooders with their calls panic and start the avalange. What do you think of this? And if you agree.... what konkrete Derivat would you buy (I'm not experienced enought to choose the right one myself). Thank's a lot and please excuse my insufficiant English

I really enjoy your daily briefings. (enjoyed with a coffee each morning). Thoughtful and open minded. Thank you.

Kudos Ed for reiterating the initiative to bring in even more diverse views across more time horizons so that viewers can absorb the different perspectives and assess the pros and cons of each stance on their own. Think this will help all of us develop better frameworks in assessing the probabilities of what could or could not happen for the journey ahead.

Kudos to Ed for calling the over-bearishness in April and now saying short term this market could contine to run. He nailed that call IMO. Would be interested in getting his views on the recent big bond selloff. Trend or just a blip? Will Powell talk about YCC at the Fed meeting tomorrow as a result of these big recent yield spikes? Where does he think rates are headed? Thanks.

Dear Ed Harrison, for me the problem here in the last few weeks is that while you said you were bullish on Europe, Raoul Pal in particular has always been saying this is the hope phase, I know he gives a medium term outlook, but 3 months for me is a medium term, so even though I respect you and also Julian Bridgen who was short term bullish, I have received conflicting messages here, so it's like: yes they are bullish, but it will be really short or it will be wrong because Raoul Pal says it is only hope. I'm not saying any of you were wrong, but it has been difficult to manage the conflicting signals, so you tend to be very very prudent. I would also not that real interest rates in Germany have been rising which is usually negative for the dax in particular, but this hasn't been affronted. Maybe sometimes you should include some subscribers in the morning chat to have a more confrontational debate, just an idea

I think there is little chance the Senate will not vote to renew just about every rescue package expiring in the future. It would be political suicide to do anything else.

thank you in advance for inviting Howell

Hedgeye's quad model failed to deal with all the liquidity in the market. It shows that even if you have a fancy framework and 50 staff supporting you, nobody knows how the market will react day-to-day. Keith is loud and rude (but sometimes funny). That's his entertainment brand. Please remember he makes all of his money from subscription revenue and not from trading/investing. He has an imaginary portfolio at all-time highs every month. Of course, his net worth is not transparent to subs. Think about that before you devote your allegiance to him or other gurus.

Time horizon: most investors have a time horizon of 3-5 years, but that doesn't mean you can be wrong on a 3 month time horizon.

Excellent as always. One can tell Ed is working hard on his off days. Rest up Ed. We need you. I like the the idea of bringing on diverse opinions such as Mr. Howell’s. Nevertheless, as stated, time horizons are key. Mr. Pal’s outlook is still very much in play. USD, Gold, EUR, bond yields. Covid round two, trade wars, Hong Kong, social unrest and even locusts in South Asia are enough to strike terror in the hearts of even the most confident of bulls. Cheers.

I can't see how new money would justify entering bullish trades at this stage. The opportunity at these levels is for the bears.

Something I ponder watching recent protests and riots: Did anyone notice a whole lot of social distancing? One of the great inequalities in America is healthcare. Black Lives do Matter. But so far, saving those lives hasn’t seemed a priority. We’ll know in a couple of weeks whether Ed’s incubator moment has already arrived.

Ed can you bring tony greer ?

Does anyone look at things from a long-term lens anymore?

Pride goeth before a fall. DLS

Love the new thumbnail...looks like a poster for an 80's coming-of-age movie.🤣

Good talk guys, and looking forward to Mike's input on the liquidity, as I am 40% certain that I understand the whole situation

What's up with Hugh Hendry? He looks like he is ready to rip on something with Twitter. Get him on for his Master Plan for CB's. Have him shower and wear a collar this time. ;).

Any possibility of getting Simon Hunt on again? Its been a few years. He has a bullish long term view of where we are headed over the next 2 years.

Great briefing guys. Sorry we're such a pain in the ass 😅 Appreciate bringing new folks on the platform. Brent Johnson could be a good + I'd like to hear your opinions the implications of EM vs DM social safety nets and the implication for lost income and asset prices. I really think this is going to be a huge humanitarian crisis in EM, and DM so far seems to be way better off. Tied in with this, I've had a short gold miners position (could be tied in with long growth stocks, which I may rebalance to on a technical pull back). Thesis being that gov supported income in DM vs massive loss in income in EM will cause divergence in prices of preferred assets (growth stocks vs. gold). Curious what your thoughts are.

is everything Okay Ed? You look extremely tired and drained in this interview despite taking a few days off. Take it easy Ed.