LOL... Raoul has a cool looking dog...

haha best one ever. love it!

Raoul mentioned that if Fed buys/backstops junkbonds as more and more BBB companies get downgraded, equities get destroyed. Why's that?

The virus news, is over played by the market for the following reasons: - Phase I only and hardly out of the lab. - Phase II and III take a great time to recruit, determine corrrect doesage, toxicity, efficacy, safety. - Manufacturing and distribution become latent considerations, adding to time to population availability. - Shear volume of vaccine won't be sufficient for months after FDA approvals. - Virus mutates, so similar to Infuenza, a percentage of the population will still develop serious issues ARDS. - Economies are opening up with insufficient testing and at the political whim of the election cycle - danger! Great if it works, but its hardly like turning on a switch - many months away.

That greatest retailer as the richest person is more anecdotal than anything in the case of amazon. What actually drives their profits (not revenue, profits) is AWS their cloud computing software which is the most popular cloud software at the moment. The reason they are able to compress their margins so is because all they really need from it is the data. Don’t be fooled by the huge revenue Raoul, amazon’s position is a lot more precarious than it seems. increased competition in either category which is assuredly on its way ( especially in the cloud via new entires like apple, ibm and others and improvements by rivals like google and Microsoft) could have massive implications for amazon and the omnipotent Bezos. They have $75 B in debt vs ~$10B in earnings in each of the past two years which could be a problem (if it isnt already) if their majority earner took a beating. I think of them more as capital destroyers than growers.

Lighting tip 101 - put a light where the computer is to illuminate the face ;)

The Coronavirus Euro bond proposal is a red herring. France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, each could instantly use 500 billion Euro loans and still be in a big hole. We have European politicians who love the Euro idea and have worked most of their careers to promote it. The fact remains that Germany will not back the bonds. What interest rate will be required for a bond that is simply backed by the full faith and credit of Brussels? I would not expect the principal to be paid back. DLS

Excellent introduction. Very interesting about Buffet. I hope that the world opens well, there is a vaccine, there are better treatment protocols, etc. As they say hope is not a strategy. I am in the Buffet camp for now. I think everyone else is playing the vast money flows coming out of the Fed, a lot more to come from the treasuries, and inflows from around the world - it has worked many times before. The second wave in the Fall will offer better prices. If no second wave, I happy many lives were not lost. DLS

#MeThinks Should google face a liquidity event, they can turn certain services to be subscription based (overnight) and they will be fine.

The "new" illness is likely Kawasaki disease, look at the symptoms and cause https://www.mctlaw.com/vaccine-injury/kawasaki-disease-triggered-by-a-vaccine/?fbclid=IwAR1w9d9YnItkzuauCMtK_hSZXXSPyIknNOepWbpVEroFcyTtj_9UYT3byOw

It’s like sitting down with you guys and enjoying a great conversation. Oh and I finally cancelled my value investor membership, as I’ve been meaning to do, and I bought some dollars for my euros, among other things. If my country isn’t leaving the euro, at least I am :)

never edit out dogs.

Raoul, I have a question for you please. What role do the quadrillions in Derivatives play in your Solvency phase to come? Aren’t they ultimately the biggest reason for concern?

Guys, have you had a chance to watch Stan Druckenmiller’s interview with the Economic Club of NY yet? He explains where the liquidity came from that sent markets up in March/April decoupling from the Real Economy. He has a thesis for what may happen in September. Love your thoughts on his perspective.

Rate of fiscal stimulus vs depletion of business cash reserves

Love this interview, except the Apple love in. ;)

23:05 - Glad you kept the dogs in. Much needed relief from the market madness. Woof.

kyle bass is overrated

One major macro question I would like to see addressed on RVTV is how the Euro experiment might end? Is it so complicated that no one can unplug it? The Euro is only 21 years old. What is on the balance sheet? How would countries go back to their own currencies if they can? What happens to all the Euro bonds on the ECB balance sheet? The end of Euroland would be one of the biggest macro events of our lifetime if it happens. Thanks. DLS

The conversation is very interesting. But if we are in a bounce, can you suggest short? You already suggest en passant GE, F and GM. Best regards, Alain Dubreuil

This conversation was fantastic, especially with the brief appearance by Raoul’s dogs. I want to hear more from them in terms of how the global recession is impacting their lives - my guess is, not much. ;-)

Raoul, are these Ridge Backs by any chance? What lovely dogs!! Thank you Raoul, Ash and Jack for an amazing episode!

Raoul Why not introduce us to your dogs

I love this channel..... These dailies are a great idea. Any chance of a video call between Raoul & Jeff Gundlach ? ...... and maybe Max Keiser ? Where's Grant ?

Nice pool table.

The conversation about the Fed fearing deflation is so true. I think its important to note that in Paul Volkers memoir: "Keeping at it" he believed that these type of policies (financial engineering and such) added no real value to the economy and could ultimately bring about the deflation they were trying so hard to avoid.

Discounted Cash Flow arithmetic depends on an appropriate discount rate which used to be the 5% yield on Govies. Now that the discount rates are less than 1, asset prices can move a step closer to infinity! I have just finished reading Dying of Money by Jens O Parrson. Story of the Weimar and North American inflations. Perhaps Kyle, Hugh and Brent are front running this outcome?

My favorite part of this video was Raoul's dogs. Really enjoyed the videos this week with Kyle and Howard. Personally, I favor Howard's way forward. I'm not really confident that anyone really understands all the macro impacts of this virus, but having cash and gold with some high quality equities seems like a decent way forward to me. Hedge your bets and manage your risk.

AT&T is not a "old economy company". Without the ISP's you are not able to send and receive any data via stream from Netflix, amazon or upload your vids.

Great as always, gentleman. I know recently Raoul touched on consumer debt with respect to the insolvency part of his theory. Assuming a debt jubilee doesn’t occur, can you guys touch on the probabilities or federally held student loans being completely forgiven and the trickle effects that would have as a potential economic stimulus or downfall.

Would be great to see a panel discussion on crypto-space developments and budding digital financial infrastructure.

The Raoul Pal episodes are the best

Not sure the reasons exactly Grant left , but it sounds like Raoul listened to Grants conversation with Jawad on the recent things that make you go hmmm series.

You might as well charge my card for the full amount, since I will be renewing my subscription after the promotional $1 initial fee. I feel like I robbed you! How can anyone give a thumbs down is beyond my understanding. Thanks for the opportunity to learn from your youtube videos for the last 2 years, and now, I feel in the least, I owe you a full subscription from here on out! Thanks again Raoul! APR PS: I have been in contact with Anthony Deden because of Grant's interview, which I watched last year, and probably will be going out to Zurich to meet with him after this C*^)))^% is over. That was probably one of the best interviews I had ever seen.

i watch a lot of content. crypto mining, repairing classic cars, finance. everything is improved by having dogs in the video. seriously. please leave the dogs in always. are they rhodesian ridgebacks? best wishes from manchester uk

«...and there’s no kittens in sight.» Only dogs:)

I love when Raoul summarizes recent interviews and weaves them into his macro themes. I really helps in trying to make sense of all this madness!

We had Watergate, but that will be replaced in the history books by Dog-gate from this video. People will remember where they were, who they were with decades from now regarding Dog-gate. 🤣

I'm terrified of chocolate, I admit

Great conversation. Love the visit from the dogs, thanks for leaving it in :)

"Every dog has his day..." Woof woof...

As always, great Raoul

The take earlier in the week from Kyle Bass on a speedy coronavirus vaccine getting to market at the end of his China discussion was fairly cringe-worthy. A LOT has to go right for best-case scenario to play out and it’s incredibly unrealistic

"We are living history" my take: The Paleolithic Age (70,000–10,000 BCE) gives way to the Neolithic Age (10,000–3,000 BCE) with the arrival of agriculture and trade between villages. The Equestrian Age (3,000–1,000 BCE), starts with the domestication of the horse and allows for long-distance overland travel. The Classical Age (1,000 BCE–1,500 CE), vast empires form and compete. The Ocean Age (1,500–1,800) brings genuinely global conquest and commerce and the culture of colonies. The Industrial Age (1800–2000) ushers in new technologies and the first truly global powers — the U.K. and then the USA. The Digital Age (2020 - ) It will be interesting to see which countries embrace the digital age and more importantly are able to leverage the same and project their power as a digital super power. I will not be surprised if in the democratic world, the power is transferred to companies and not the sovereign itself.

Can't wait to watch apple become RIM/BlackBerry in a few years, maybe sooner.

GE=Enron. Great content this week and next will be even better.

How do you think Bitcoin will behave in the potential insolvency phase, assuming that equities will go down?

The interview with Howard Marks was excellent , to have his views even after he has written a note on uncertainty just days ago is really nice , i guess only Raoul could have got him to say many things we dont see him talk in memos or TV

Loved Raoul's insightful thoughts on specific stocks - MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, FB ...ATT, GE & FORD. And this is not even his forte lol.

I've never seen "it's going to zero" said so eloquently. And it's a very strong case.

Regularly watch the Daily Briefings. Relevant, smart hosts. Raoul charismatic and always brings great ideas and passion worth viewing. Any chance RV does more and deeper deep dives into the central banks, central bankers, IMF their coordinated interplays and missteps. Think the Global Recession series and Raoul's set-up of it was excellent and engaging. I'm learning a ton! Thank you.

Raoul, bravo for taking on views that are different than yours. Best wishes for your continued success.

I like leaving the dogs in the spot. Everyone has had zoom moments like that the past few months.....

The Fed "attracting its own fear" is a brilliant way of putting it imo. Really excellent conversation - thanks guys.

Regarding your comment on AT&T's debt, there is a Chinese property company called Evergrande that has nearly as much debt (but a higher interest cost). Just flagging that to say that over-leveraged corporates are not just a US problem.

Sokoloff interviewing Lacy Hunt? This will be epic!

Raoul, brilliant takes on Amazon being the world’s greatest shopping market and its future. Happy to start hearing something a bit more actionable vs. esoteric with the BBB high debt short positioning

more dogs

Does the transition of a liquidity event to a solvency event mean that the next leg down of the stock market will be more selective and won't take GLD and GDX with it?

Why does RV not run weekly surveys so that we get a mood of the RV subscribers as well? My idea of starting a slack channel will support this as well.

It’s the investor mindset. Brilliant! Investors conditioned by past Fed QE to “buy the dip”. Will follow the data but expect Raoul’s view will prevail.

Give those dogs extra bones!

The US is special versus the emperor has no clothes. Perfect!

This is for the 15th, but above the description it shows Published on: May 14th, 2020. I assume it was shot today?