Daily Briefing – May 15, 2020

Published on
May 15th, 2020
Duration
35 minutes


Daily Briefing – May 15, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Raoul Pal

Published on: May 15th, 2020 • Duration: 35 minutes

Real Vision's CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, joins Senior Editor Ash Bennington to update viewers on his "Unfolding" thesis about the trajectory of the COVID crisis and its effects on the economy and markets. He also unpacks his views about the solvency risks in the BBB bond market and reviews highlights from his interviews with legendary investors Howard Marks and Kyle Bass.

Comments

Transcript

  • SK
    Sung K.
    20 May 2020 @ 20:28
    LOL... Raoul has a cool looking dog...
  • GA
    Greg A.
    19 May 2020 @ 21:19
    haha best one ever. love it!
  • JM
    Jake M.
    19 May 2020 @ 12:15
    Raoul mentioned that if Fed buys/backstops junkbonds as more and more BBB companies get downgraded, equities get destroyed. Why's that?
  • RD
    Riki D.
    19 May 2020 @ 04:39
    The virus news, is over played by the market for the following reasons: - Phase I only and hardly out of the lab. - Phase II and III take a great time to recruit, determine corrrect doesage, toxicity, efficacy, safety. - Manufacturing and distribution become latent considerations, adding to time to population availability. - Shear volume of vaccine won't be sufficient for months after FDA approvals. - Virus mutates, so similar to Infuenza, a percentage of the population will still develop serious issues ARDS. - Economies are opening up with insufficient testing and at the political whim of the election cycle - danger! Great if it works, but its hardly like turning on a switch - many months away.
  • mf
    massimo f.
    17 May 2020 @ 23:14
    That greatest retailer as the richest person is more anecdotal than anything in the case of amazon. What actually drives their profits (not revenue, profits) is AWS their cloud computing software which is the most popular cloud software at the moment. The reason they are able to compress their margins so is because all they really need from it is the data. Don’t be fooled by the huge revenue Raoul, amazon’s position is a lot more precarious than it seems. increased competition in either category which is assuredly on its way ( especially in the cloud via new entires like apple, ibm and others and improvements by rivals like google and Microsoft) could have massive implications for amazon and the omnipotent Bezos. They have $75 B in debt vs ~$10B in earnings in each of the past two years which could be a problem (if it isnt already) if their majority earner took a beating. I think of them more as capital destroyers than growers.
    • ST
      Simon T.
      18 May 2020 @ 05:04
      Absolutely agree with you - the company hasn’t generated profits for 20 years and only recently turned in some billions which is nothing with respect to their valuations / further EU and then US will tax them as any other retailer is paying taxes, while China won’t give them access to their market
    • DS
      David S.
      19 May 2020 @ 04:27
      Amazon just wants to plough as much of its cash flow as possible back into dominating in its businesses. DLS
  • GV
    Gunnar V.
    19 May 2020 @ 01:19
    Lighting tip 101 - put a light where the computer is to illuminate the face ;)
  • DS
    David S.
    18 May 2020 @ 23:40
    The Coronavirus Euro bond proposal is a red herring. France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, each could instantly use 500 billion Euro loans and still be in a big hole. We have European politicians who love the Euro idea and have worked most of their careers to promote it. The fact remains that Germany will not back the bonds. What interest rate will be required for a bond that is simply backed by the full faith and credit of Brussels? I would not expect the principal to be paid back. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    18 May 2020 @ 23:30
    Excellent introduction. Very interesting about Buffet. I hope that the world opens well, there is a vaccine, there are better treatment protocols, etc. As they say hope is not a strategy. I am in the Buffet camp for now. I think everyone else is playing the vast money flows coming out of the Fed, a lot more to come from the treasuries, and inflows from around the world - it has worked many times before. The second wave in the Fall will offer better prices. If no second wave, I happy many lives were not lost. DLS
  • IN
    I N.
    18 May 2020 @ 12:27
    #MeThinks Should google face a liquidity event, they can turn certain services to be subscription based (overnight) and they will be fine.
  • AJ
    Avni J.
    18 May 2020 @ 10:33
    The "new" illness is likely Kawasaki disease, look at the symptoms and cause https://www.mctlaw.com/vaccine-injury/kawasaki-disease-triggered-by-a-vaccine/?fbclid=IwAR1w9d9YnItkzuauCMtK_hSZXXSPyIknNOepWbpVEroFcyTtj_9UYT3byOw
  • JH
    J.D. H.
    17 May 2020 @ 20:53
    It’s like sitting down with you guys and enjoying a great conversation. Oh and I finally cancelled my value investor membership, as I’ve been meaning to do, and I bought some dollars for my euros, among other things. If my country isn’t leaving the euro, at least I am :)
  • JH
    Joel H.
    16 May 2020 @ 01:17
    never edit out dogs.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      16 May 2020 @ 02:01
      Totally
    • DB
      Donna B.
      17 May 2020 @ 20:11
      Same thing happened to Stephen Colbert the other day and it was the best part of the video.
  • AW
    Angela W.
    17 May 2020 @ 09:07
    Raoul, I have a question for you please. What role do the quadrillions in Derivatives play in your Solvency phase to come? Aren’t they ultimately the biggest reason for concern?
  • AW
    Angela W.
    17 May 2020 @ 04:47
    Guys, have you had a chance to watch Stan Druckenmiller’s interview with the Economic Club of NY yet? He explains where the liquidity came from that sent markets up in March/April decoupling from the Real Economy. He has a thesis for what may happen in September. Love your thoughts on his perspective.
    • TS
      Thalia S.
      17 May 2020 @ 08:43
      I've tried looking for this online but can't find it. Do you have a link?
    • TS
      Thalia S.
      17 May 2020 @ 08:48
      Ignore that - I've just found it!
  • MS
    Malcolm S.
    17 May 2020 @ 04:23
    Rate of fiscal stimulus vs depletion of business cash reserves
  • MR
    Matthew R.
    17 May 2020 @ 03:25
    Love this interview, except the Apple love in. ;)
  • NI
    Nate I.
    17 May 2020 @ 00:54
    23:05 - Glad you kept the dogs in. Much needed relief from the market madness. Woof.
  • dd
    david d.
    17 May 2020 @ 00:17
    kyle bass is overrated
  • DS
    David S.
    17 May 2020 @ 00:10
    One major macro question I would like to see addressed on RVTV is how the Euro experiment might end? Is it so complicated that no one can unplug it? The Euro is only 21 years old. What is on the balance sheet? How would countries go back to their own currencies if they can? What happens to all the Euro bonds on the ECB balance sheet? The end of Euroland would be one of the biggest macro events of our lifetime if it happens. Thanks. DLS
  • ad
    alain d.
    16 May 2020 @ 22:45
    The conversation is very interesting. But if we are in a bounce, can you suggest short? You already suggest en passant GE, F and GM. Best regards, Alain Dubreuil
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    16 May 2020 @ 22:41
    This conversation was fantastic, especially with the brief appearance by Raoul’s dogs. I want to hear more from them in terms of how the global recession is impacting their lives - my guess is, not much. ;-)
  • Lv
    Liliane v.
    16 May 2020 @ 21:39
    Raoul, are these Ridge Backs by any chance? What lovely dogs!! Thank you Raoul, Ash and Jack for an amazing episode!
  • jH
    john H.
    16 May 2020 @ 21:06
    Raoul Why not introduce us to your dogs
  • TB
    Tad B.
    16 May 2020 @ 20:38
    I love this channel..... These dailies are a great idea. Any chance of a video call between Raoul & Jeff Gundlach ? ...... and maybe Max Keiser ? Where's Grant ?
  • TB
    Tad B.
    16 May 2020 @ 19:27
    Nice pool table.
  • SG
    Skyler G.
    16 May 2020 @ 17:46
    The conversation about the Fed fearing deflation is so true. I think its important to note that in Paul Volkers memoir: "Keeping at it" he believed that these type of policies (financial engineering and such) added no real value to the economy and could ultimately bring about the deflation they were trying so hard to avoid.
  • AM
    A M.
    16 May 2020 @ 17:20
    Discounted Cash Flow arithmetic depends on an appropriate discount rate which used to be the 5% yield on Govies. Now that the discount rates are less than 1, asset prices can move a step closer to infinity! I have just finished reading Dying of Money by Jens O Parrson. Story of the Weimar and North American inflations. Perhaps Kyle, Hugh and Brent are front running this outcome?
  • JS
    James S.
    16 May 2020 @ 15:47
    My favorite part of this video was Raoul's dogs. Really enjoyed the videos this week with Kyle and Howard. Personally, I favor Howard's way forward. I'm not really confident that anyone really understands all the macro impacts of this virus, but having cash and gold with some high quality equities seems like a decent way forward to me. Hedge your bets and manage your risk.
  • SM
    Stephan M.
    16 May 2020 @ 15:17
    AT&T is not a "old economy company". Without the ISP's you are not able to send and receive any data via stream from Netflix, amazon or upload your vids.
  • AP
    Alejandro P.
    16 May 2020 @ 15:07
    Great as always, gentleman. I know recently Raoul touched on consumer debt with respect to the insolvency part of his theory. Assuming a debt jubilee doesn’t occur, can you guys touch on the probabilities or federally held student loans being completely forgiven and the trickle effects that would have as a potential economic stimulus or downfall.
  • MR
    Michael R.
    16 May 2020 @ 13:22
    Would be great to see a panel discussion on crypto-space developments and budding digital financial infrastructure.
    • PC
      Petros C.
      16 May 2020 @ 14:12
      Indeed, as long as contrarian opinions are heard, rather than just bitcoin to the moon. What about inviting Nouriel Roubinio on the proposed panel? He loves cryptoKitties!
    • rw
      rory w.
      16 May 2020 @ 14:16
      I would prefer if they stuck to actual finance unless crypto is actually adding tokenized assets.
  • TS
    Tamim S.
    15 May 2020 @ 22:54
    The Raoul Pal episodes are the best
    • NJ
      Nimitt J.
      16 May 2020 @ 01:27
      I agree not only he manages to put complex macros issues in context but able to deliver in a way that does leave one afraid.
    • CT
      Cherry T.
      16 May 2020 @ 04:12
      Raoul's definitely my favorite. He comes off so unbelievably likeable and humble while throwing down hard facts.
    • MS
      Michiel S.
      16 May 2020 @ 14:15
      I wonder whether Roger Hirst from.........................Manchester would agree:-)
  • AP
    Alexander P.
    16 May 2020 @ 13:56
    Not sure the reasons exactly Grant left , but it sounds like Raoul listened to Grants conversation with Jawad on the recent things that make you go hmmm series.
  • AR
    Anthony R.
    16 May 2020 @ 13:00
    You might as well charge my card for the full amount, since I will be renewing my subscription after the promotional $1 initial fee. I feel like I robbed you! How can anyone give a thumbs down is beyond my understanding. Thanks for the opportunity to learn from your youtube videos for the last 2 years, and now, I feel in the least, I owe you a full subscription from here on out! Thanks again Raoul! APR PS: I have been in contact with Anthony Deden because of Grant's interview, which I watched last year, and probably will be going out to Zurich to meet with him after this C*^)))^% is over. That was probably one of the best interviews I had ever seen.
  • pd
    peter d.
    16 May 2020 @ 12:58
    i watch a lot of content. crypto mining, repairing classic cars, finance. everything is improved by having dogs in the video. seriously. please leave the dogs in always. are they rhodesian ridgebacks? best wishes from manchester uk
  • RH
    Roger H.
    16 May 2020 @ 12:43
    «...and there’s no kittens in sight.» Only dogs:)
  • HD
    Hedwige D.
    16 May 2020 @ 12:40
    I love when Raoul summarizes recent interviews and weaves them into his macro themes. I really helps in trying to make sense of all this madness!
  • SS
    Steve S.
    16 May 2020 @ 10:47
    We had Watergate, but that will be replaced in the history books by Dog-gate from this video. People will remember where they were, who they were with decades from now regarding Dog-gate. 🤣
  • IP
    IDA P.
    16 May 2020 @ 10:34
    I'm terrified of chocolate, I admit
  • SM
    Shaun M.
    16 May 2020 @ 10:25
    Great conversation. Love the visit from the dogs, thanks for leaving it in :)
  • SK
    Shane K.
    16 May 2020 @ 10:20
    "Every dog has his day..." Woof woof...
  • TC
    Tudor C.
    16 May 2020 @ 10:00
    As always, great Raoul
  • JM
    Jayce M.
    16 May 2020 @ 01:17
    The take earlier in the week from Kyle Bass on a speedy coronavirus vaccine getting to market at the end of his China discussion was fairly cringe-worthy. A LOT has to go right for best-case scenario to play out and it’s incredibly unrealistic
    • GL
      Gustavo L.
      16 May 2020 @ 02:17
      Sanofi seems to have something going online
    • DS
      David S.
      16 May 2020 @ 09:51
      We can all hope for the best. I am pleasantly surprised that we are not seeing more cases of Coronavirus as we start to open in the US. I think the people are smarter than the politicians. Many are staying home and social distancing. DLS
  • NJ
    Nimitt J.
    16 May 2020 @ 01:52
    "We are living history" my take: The Paleolithic Age (70,000–10,000 BCE) gives way to the Neolithic Age (10,000–3,000 BCE) with the arrival of agriculture and trade between villages. The Equestrian Age (3,000–1,000 BCE), starts with the domestication of the horse and allows for long-distance overland travel. The Classical Age (1,000 BCE–1,500 CE), vast empires form and compete. The Ocean Age (1,500–1,800) brings genuinely global conquest and commerce and the culture of colonies. The Industrial Age (1800–2000) ushers in new technologies and the first truly global powers — the U.K. and then the USA. The Digital Age (2020 - ) It will be interesting to see which countries embrace the digital age and more importantly are able to leverage the same and project their power as a digital super power. I will not be surprised if in the democratic world, the power is transferred to companies and not the sovereign itself.
    • DS
      David S.
      16 May 2020 @ 09:36
      I think that we are already there. Each age is built upon all the ages that preceded it. As far as bringing culture to the colonies, I think that we imposed our culture on the colonies for our own good. DLS
  • DG
    Dave G.
    16 May 2020 @ 04:27
    Can't wait to watch apple become RIM/BlackBerry in a few years, maybe sooner.
    • DS
      David S.
      16 May 2020 @ 09:06
      Do not hold your breath. Apple has so much money they will buy any new brilliant idea and integrate it. I would be out of the RealVision circle as I have Samsung Ultra and a Surface Book. For 20 years, my hardware purchase decisions are based solely on what two of my younger friends buy. When I need help, I call them. You never know what drives the market. DLS
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    16 May 2020 @ 08:21
    GE=Enron. Great content this week and next will be even better.
  • SP
    Simone P.
    15 May 2020 @ 22:49
    How do you think Bitcoin will behave in the potential insolvency phase, assuming that equities will go down?
    • KA
      Koka A.
      16 May 2020 @ 07:40
      It has another fall coming, together with gold and everything else. After the asset classes decouple, it will start its rise.
  • ds
    durgesh s.
    16 May 2020 @ 07:00
    The interview with Howard Marks was excellent , to have his views even after he has written a note on uncertainty just days ago is really nice , i guess only Raoul could have got him to say many things we dont see him talk in memos or TV
  • PC
    Peter C.
    16 May 2020 @ 05:51
    Loved Raoul's insightful thoughts on specific stocks - MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, FB ...ATT, GE & FORD. And this is not even his forte lol.
  • AV
    Alvin V.
    16 May 2020 @ 05:26
    I've never seen "it's going to zero" said so eloquently. And it's a very strong case.
  • SL
    Steven L.
    16 May 2020 @ 00:19
    Regularly watch the Daily Briefings. Relevant, smart hosts. Raoul charismatic and always brings great ideas and passion worth viewing. Any chance RV does more and deeper deep dives into the central banks, central bankers, IMF their coordinated interplays and missteps. Think the Global Recession series and Raoul's set-up of it was excellent and engaging. I'm learning a ton! Thank you.
    • JB
      Julien B.
      16 May 2020 @ 04:58
      the hugh hendry richard werner interview next week will probably go deep into the central banks
  • GJ
    Gino J.
    16 May 2020 @ 03:25
    Raoul, bravo for taking on views that are different than yours. Best wishes for your continued success.
  • JH
    Jim H.
    16 May 2020 @ 03:22
    I like leaving the dogs in the spot. Everyone has had zoom moments like that the past few months.....
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    16 May 2020 @ 03:13
    The Fed "attracting its own fear" is a brilliant way of putting it imo. Really excellent conversation - thanks guys.
  • KA
    Kevin A.
    16 May 2020 @ 03:06
    Regarding your comment on AT&T's debt, there is a Chinese property company called Evergrande that has nearly as much debt (but a higher interest cost). Just flagging that to say that over-leveraged corporates are not just a US problem.
  • DP
    Duane P.
    16 May 2020 @ 01:58
    Sokoloff interviewing Lacy Hunt? This will be epic!
  • JM
    Jayce M.
    16 May 2020 @ 01:56
    Raoul, brilliant takes on Amazon being the world’s greatest shopping market and its future. Happy to start hearing something a bit more actionable vs. esoteric with the BBB high debt short positioning
  • JC
    John C.
    16 May 2020 @ 01:49
    more dogs
  • DF
    David F.
    16 May 2020 @ 00:36
    Does the transition of a liquidity event to a solvency event mean that the next leg down of the stock market will be more selective and won't take GLD and GDX with it?
    • JC
      JAKE C.
      16 May 2020 @ 01:48
      In my opinion no. In this scenario I think we will first see mass liquidations of many assets, whether it be Gold or even Crypto to help pay down debt (Crypto may be small enough to avoid this). I think this will be a microcosm of the wider move from emerging market economies to sell off commodities to obtain dollars.
  • NJ
    Nimitt J.
    16 May 2020 @ 01:38
    Why does RV not run weekly surveys so that we get a mood of the RV subscribers as well? My idea of starting a slack channel will support this as well.
  • LP
    Lynn P.
    16 May 2020 @ 00:54
    It’s the investor mindset. Brilliant! Investors conditioned by past Fed QE to “buy the dip”. Will follow the data but expect Raoul’s view will prevail.
  • WM
    William M.
    15 May 2020 @ 23:33
    Give those dogs extra bones!
  • WM
    William M.
    15 May 2020 @ 23:30
    The US is special versus the emperor has no clothes. Perfect!
  • DS
    David S.
    15 May 2020 @ 22:47
    This is for the 15th, but above the description it shows Published on: May 14th, 2020. I assume it was shot today?
    • DS
      David S.
      15 May 2020 @ 22:53
      It's just an error..it's todays show