Daily Briefing – May 22, 2020

Published on
May 22nd, 2020
Duration
40 minutes


Daily Briefing – May 22, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Nick Correa, Ash Bennington, and Raoul Pal

Published on: May 22nd, 2020 • Duration: 40 minutes

Senior editor Ash Bennington sits down with Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to explore the latest developments in markets and macro. They dive into why debt mutualization won’t be enough to save Europe, what the elimination of GDP targeting means for China, and how Hong Kong's limited autonomy is slipping from its grasp with China's latest security law announcement. The pair also discuss the challenges of a solvency crisis, the rising threat of deflation, and the plummeting two year U.S. Treasury yield.

Comments

Transcript

  • SK
    Sung K.
    27 May 2020 @ 02:36
    Raoul’s dogs should be a permanent part of his backstage scenery
  • WM
    Will M.
    25 May 2020 @ 19:45
    Raoul at some point we need to confirm what you mean by "this is the end game" under the deflation scenario and rising real rates. This implies financial chaos and serious government intervention in markets. I am assuming you are referring to a deflationary debt collapse. I assume this means markets will collapse or be shut. Given the fragility of todays financial system and social construct, this feels like revolution and civil war to me. Sorry if thats overly negative, but I am wondering if I have any options as a retiree, or if the 2 metals, brass & lead become paramount.
  • SS
    Scott S.
    25 May 2020 @ 18:48
    Also the S&P and DOW have what "could be" the "Mother of all H&S patterns forming - now in right shoulder? The Nasdaq perhaps the "Mother of all Double Tops"? Love to hear Raoul's or anyone else's thoughts?
  • SS
    Scott S.
    25 May 2020 @ 18:47
    Look at the monthly AUD/USD and EURO/USD charts. Is the "Mother of all Head & Shoulders" patterns forming?
  • CL
    Christopher L.
    25 May 2020 @ 16:52
    Great interview. One thing I would like to be further described is that Raoul has said on a number of occasions in regard to debt/solvency is that if xyz happens it's "game over." I have in my mind what "game over" means, but it may be something entirely different than Raoul. It would be interesting and helpful to hear what Raoul means - what "game over" looks like in reality. Thanks for all you guys do.
  • AP
    Alfonso P.
    25 May 2020 @ 14:35
    would like if today you can touch issues with LA an Mexico
  • SL
    Sean L.
    22 May 2020 @ 22:16
    Ash mentions that the AMA should be available to Plus and Pro members - is this correct? I can't access it as a plus acct...
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 May 2020 @ 22:35
      Sorry, mistake. It was for the Pro tier.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      22 May 2020 @ 23:39
      Yes. My mistake. Pro Tier.
    • CA
      Craig A.
      25 May 2020 @ 13:51
      You can right the wrong by gifting that AMA episode to the Plus world. Another "teaser" as per Sean L. It's a week old. Seems fair.
  • jk
    johan k.
    25 May 2020 @ 10:13
    Hi Gents. Love the show. Real Vision continues to fuel my passion for finance! US UK markets are closed, it would be interesting to hear some of Raoul's and Ash's opinions on more of the Emerging Markets, what this will do for bond holders (Lebanon defaulted $1.2billion before the crisis!, Argentina defer $500 million bond payment, 7th or 9th time, i forget exactly, already too many! and who is next, South Africa perhaps?) , and how the global financial order might change with China the only real contender to US led SWIFT with their own digital wallet system, particularly interested to hear Raoul's thoughts on China anti-bitcoin with the launch of its new digital currency this June or July as a pilot project! Would this encourage such diversity away from SWIFT?
  • CB
    Chris B.
    23 May 2020 @ 21:07
    Raoul, would you mind at some point commenting on two possible threats to the BTC thesis - one is that BTC is going to zero due to government regulation (refer Jim Rogers most recent interview on RV), and another is the idea that crypto will eventually crumble due to quantum computing enabled hacking - thank you.
    • DW
      David W.
      23 May 2020 @ 23:40
      These are my two main concerns too (the other commonly pointed out reasons like EMP and other things don't matter as much imo or are v significantly less unlikely) ....Chris, if you look over YouTube, there are some answers to these points on Crypto channels. But all the same, I'd also really welcome a RealVision perspective on this....perhaps could bring back Michael Novogratz for a chat?...and/or someone like Simon Dixon or Andreas Antonopoulous. I hope I am not teaching you to suck eggs here Chris - I am only 1 year in the space. But my take on this is even IF one or both of these things occurred, I think the big point is to be on the overall fintech/blockchain bandwagon - especially if you are an accredited investor who can invest in some of the companies behind things....for example, maybe XRP will be "it"££ or maybe it will fizzle out, but if you own some of Ripple the company behind it then they have all kinds of other cool things going on (and they were even referenced recently in Bank of France's tender document relating to CBDCs). My plan is: to be within this overall space in various ways - and yes Bitcoin direct ownership is a part of that of course, but it isn't the whole story. Even if you can identify the future winning companies or tokens involved in the "plumbing" or some mundane detail within the overall ecosystem could be huge....if we are in the space and watching then we will be in a position to move into things sooner rather than later at least...
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      24 May 2020 @ 00:12
      In the end, the risk reward is all about how comfortable you are with the risk. I'd suggest the reward is potentially so huge, it doesn't matter. Size accordingly.
    • rf
      radjiv f.
      25 May 2020 @ 07:16
      Programmer here. 1-/ The ownership of crypto is the private keys, so 12 words. You don't own bitcoin you own the access of the bitcoin with a private key. So how governments can stop you to use words. 2-/ Exchange, exchanges are the real problem: first, all the governments will have to come together to ban mining and exchange and VPN. With decentralize exchange it is even harder because they will have to break the blockchain. They cant even come together for taxes, climate policies or any policies really. 3-/ Breaking the blockchain will include breaking the cryptographic of the world. In this case, we will be in deeper troubles and no information will be ever crypted, imagine nation-state secret, banking no more secured... etc Andreas Antonopoulos talks about much better than me and in details check his youtube channel.
    • rf
      radjiv f.
      25 May 2020 @ 07:17
      the private key is composed of 24 words my bad
  • JC
    Jacqui C.
    25 May 2020 @ 04:24
    Hi Raoul and Ash, love your work. I am trying to identify 4-5 metrics that I can follow that are not lagging indicators that will help in allocating cash. I know you follow the bond yields closely, are there any others eg PMI that help? Thanks for this extremely valuable resource.
  • FF
    Fernando F.
    25 May 2020 @ 04:21
    My issue with Gold in a deflationary situation is that it goes down. I have noticed that Gold moves along with an inverted Real Rates chart spot on. We need CPI to stay positive.
  • fk
    frederick k.
    24 May 2020 @ 22:39
    On the Corona side: right now we can estimate between 10MM and 20MM people have been infected in the US -- with 100K confirmed deaths. So there is a LOT of room for growth. The "plateau" of the last 2 months in the US could easily break out into a 5-10x between here and November. This could have a material impact on consumer psychology.
  • AJ
    Ambarish J.
    24 May 2020 @ 21:04
    Hi Raoul Thanks for a very insightful take on the week. A lot is bring talked about the possible Japanification of the US/ UK. Can this happen without a solvency crisis? Back in 2009-10 the banks came out of this mess by creating a good c bank and a bad bank. Nothing stops fed from doing that for all its borrowers.
  • DK
    Dominik K.
    24 May 2020 @ 20:03
    Your (pool) balls are in wrong order
  • DI
    Dimitri I.
    24 May 2020 @ 18:21
    I understood Richard that it is bad for the economy to have only one bank in the country with different branches like in Soviet Union. Successful economies should have many small banks like Japan before the restructuring and like Germany before the ECB. ECB wants more power and with negative interest rates it will kill all the banks in EU.
  • Am
    Alex m.
    23 May 2020 @ 04:01
    Great stuff gents, if you do a round the world on Monday I would love to hear thoughts on australia re great virus outcome and trade tensions up with China. Cheers
    • KB
      Keith B.
      23 May 2020 @ 04:48
      I second Australia. I would also like to know more about India. I am tentatively bullish India long term because of their demographics, but fear that the short term because of the virus is extremely grim.
    • TC
      Thomas C.
      23 May 2020 @ 05:55
      Yep would love to hear about australia. The currency and economy given the relative success with dealing with coronavirus would be interesting topics
    • AS
      Ash S.
      23 May 2020 @ 06:43
      Would love to hear about Australia. Economy and currency are very interesting.
    • AP
      A P.
      23 May 2020 @ 08:11
      I'd also like to hear about Australia. Thanks gents.
    • JS
      James S.
      23 May 2020 @ 10:12
      Great call
    • WK
      Warren K.
      23 May 2020 @ 12:32
      Yes indeed. Let's hear about Oz! I think that a low Aussie dollar will help us with exports of uranium, a market which looks like it might do well.
    • MG
      Malcolm G.
      23 May 2020 @ 12:58
      also interesting to hear thoughts on markets with interesting liquidity in the Global South: 1. India - 2. South African Rand and Bonds 3. Brazil and Chile Also interested in the idea of "re-localisation" - as we move away from optimisation to resilience.... are some countries better positioned for resilience - sovereign currencies, well resourced for basic needs.... hmmm
    • KB
      Keith B.
      23 May 2020 @ 14:52
      I think Russia is very well positioned. Energy independent, de-dollarised, no debt, and an economy localised by sanctions since 2014. Long MOEX since oil went negative.
    • CH
      Clive H.
      24 May 2020 @ 00:27
      Could we throw NZ in there too?
    • LC
      Leigh C.
      24 May 2020 @ 11:21
      Yes please Raoul. A little check in with Australia would be great. Maybe even an interview idea. Real estate bubble, mining, China trade, currency. Plenty of potential for a great interview with the right person.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    23 May 2020 @ 03:08
    Ash: So grateful to hear you say "primer" as you did. Next "prescient" will roll off the tongue in two syllables. Thanks for the great interview(s)!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      23 May 2020 @ 03:26
      Primer is one of those words where when you say it correctly — short i — people think you’re wrong. It’s a paradox...
    • PC
      Philip C.
      24 May 2020 @ 03:11
      'Primer' has a long i in British English. Same as in 'prime', 'primary', or 'primeval'.
  • DW
    David W.
    24 May 2020 @ 00:18
    Thank you for this overview and update on things.....I'm trying to get some kind of a grip on this - now and as it evolves. I'm grateful - I'll post some of our dog treats to you!...perfect with coconut lol.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      24 May 2020 @ 01:26
      The Coconut Girls run this place. I just live in their world...
  • JS
    Jon S.
    22 May 2020 @ 23:21
    Raoul, what do you see for mortgage rates as the 2 year goes negative? Currently, we are at around 3% for 30 year fixed in the US. I saw a headline in Germany of a negative 0.14% "teaser" mortgage. Do you see a 1% 30 year mortgage or lower for the US?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 May 2020 @ 04:00
      yup
    • JS
      Jon S.
      24 May 2020 @ 00:49
      First, thanks Raoul for the response. Second, I'm shocked that over 24 hours since I commented there are only two "thumbs" either up or down. I would think the US mortgage rate prognostications would draw a huge crowd. Interesting.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      24 May 2020 @ 00:50
      I wonder if I asked Raoul if US 30 year fixed was destined to go negative?
  • NJ
    Nimitt J.
    23 May 2020 @ 04:26
    Hi Raoul While I believe with your assessment that asset class like Gold and crypto currencies like Bitcoin might find preference in the current period of crisis. However I think the obsession will be only with hedge funds and HNIs. In case of the majority of common people often labelled as middle class / emerging economies / undeveloped countries, land will see a huge rise in terms of store of value. Esp. land parcels which have access to fresh water, sunlight and less prone to extreme weather. These can also be residential projects with access to good infrastructure facilities. It will be back to basics and hence value of exotics will burst over a period of time. I also think countries like China are expanding their area of influence over vast areas of land for probably the same considerations. The developed world is fast losing that influence and control. Appreciate your comments.
    • DW
      David W.
      23 May 2020 @ 23:56
      An episode on Land in various countries would be really interesting - can I vote for this too please RealVision? As for here in the UK, there will presumably be an army of people seeking a bit of "The Good Life" (TV series). And, anecdotally, I know several people (as well as me and my dad) who are looking for parcels of non-developmental horticultural or agricultural land right now..I am not a HNI but he is.......The only thing that makes me nervous with Land is it would perhaps be affected by any wider deflationary busts, and in the future I bet governments will tax property and inheritance a lot more in our country (maybe land too was my worry...but it looks more attractive than conventional real estate).
  • ML
    Mehdi L.
    23 May 2020 @ 23:19
    Great discussion! Well prepared and executed guys!
  • JD
    John D.
    23 May 2020 @ 03:18
    I'm so saddened for the people of Hong Kong. To have democracy, freedom of speech and then have it taken away and replaced with suppression and fear.... hard to believe such a thing could happen in 2020.
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      23 May 2020 @ 14:05
      Agreed. I think people are underestimating how badly HK is going to be effected. Would love to hear more of Kyle Bass and other experts on the HK situation as things are now developing quickly.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      23 May 2020 @ 21:27
      Seems the CCP/Xi is just doing what they've been going for many a year now - ignoring the agreements they've made to pursue their own agenda. Kyle Bass has a number of RV and TY videos, all worth watching IMHO.
  • AT
    ALAN T.
    23 May 2020 @ 20:27
    My impression is that we already had a global solvency issue albeit less acute going into this. We've had anemic GDP growth even with large chronic deficits at least since GFC1 with the root issues coming well before. Have we really had growth? Would the fantasy coming true of getting back to normal really solve anything or simply provide more time?
  • BH
    Bernard H.
    23 May 2020 @ 00:30
    Meanwhile on main street, here's a sobering report from the BBC's Nick Bryant on how middle-class Americans are queuing at food banks as US unemployment hits 38 million: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWT9aOE0OGo&feature=youtu.be
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      23 May 2020 @ 00:40
      BBC, almost as bad as quoting CNN.
    • NJ
      Nimitt J.
      23 May 2020 @ 10:45
      this got me scared https://www.livemint.com/news/world/us-discussed-holding-first-nuclear-test-in-decades-report-11590223420237.html
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      23 May 2020 @ 14:09
      8 downvotes on my anti BBC and CNN comment. I thought RV viewers would be a bit more discerning than this, after all, that's why we sign up for alternative sources like RV. You can't trust MSM news sources guys, if you haven't realised this yet, then you have no hope in seeing the woods through the trees when things really start to kick off.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      23 May 2020 @ 20:21
      Matt, your politics are not going to make you or us any money, I suspect that’s the reason for the downvotes.
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    23 May 2020 @ 19:49
    Debt is rising exponentially just like covid numbers if you put the charts together you will see the covid numbers are showing where the debt is going.
  • vd
    vipen d.
    23 May 2020 @ 16:49
    UK is extending the mortgage holidays by another 3 months on top of the initial 3. Seems like the free money train is here to stay for quite some time...
  • aj
    arjun j.
    23 May 2020 @ 16:01
    `Hi all basic question if i dont mind- is the rational behind negative yields and why this is a sign of a global depression is that central banks buying bonds pushing down yields ? could someone explain further ?
  • JI
    Jose I.
    23 May 2020 @ 15:59
    Raoul. I like your framework and the direction/trends you point to. It would be great if you could share (maybe on the Monday briefing) some thoughts on potential timeframes (or its triggers). Maybe there is a scenario for a faster unfolding of the trends you say and a much slower one. It could very well be that CBs can go on for much much longer and “the music continues to play” a long time before it “stops”?. Excellent ideas too early could then be wrong? Thoughts on timeframes/triggers? I’d appreciate your thoughts. Thanks!
  • HD
    Hannelore D.
    23 May 2020 @ 15:34
    Great tandem these two.. Ash, splendid interviewer, seems to have all the right information at hand to make valuable episodes with whoever is sitting at the other end. Bolted to the chair, esp every friday because of the great information in these noisy and uncertain times. Raoul dissects and gets to the core of what really matters and what might be at hand.
  • JV
    Jonas V.
    23 May 2020 @ 14:50
    here in Belgium +90% of the people also say WIEFIE instead of WIFI (correct pronounced)
    • HD
      Hannelore D.
      23 May 2020 @ 15:22
      Zo is dat! True that!
  • OM
    Owen M.
    23 May 2020 @ 02:14
    Raoul - true to being attracting to your fears. I was cutting a watermelon today, which I have done 100x. For whatever reason, before I was cutting I was thinking, damn, I better not cut my hand. Sure enough I sliced my finger. It happened. The more one focuses their energies on making sure something does not happen, sure enough it happens. My .02$. Onto our canoe trip this weekend. Cheers RV, ya'll are the best. Rest, Relax, Rejuvenate.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 May 2020 @ 03:59
      100% agree. You'll see it in friends and others - they all attract their biggest fear if its too big... its like a magnet
    • KB
      Keith B.
      23 May 2020 @ 04:55
      There’s a great scene in the movie ‘Kung Fu Panda’ where the snow leopard antagonist escapes jail using the feather of the duck sent to check he cannot escape. “One often meets his destiny on the road he takes to avoid it.” Is the warning master Wugui (the turtle) gives master Shifu (the rat-thing) before he sends the duck to check. I have been thinking about that scene a bit recently, as I watched the movie with my kid, and I feel that this is the situation we are in now with negative rates and insolvency, as you say. The legendary tiger that has been locked up for 100 years is about to escape, and it was the efforts to keep him there that secured his freedom.
    • TM
      Tom M.
      23 May 2020 @ 10:02
      Damn Keith, that is some excellent big picture insight from Kung Fu Panda. Beautiful.
    • KB
      Keith B.
      23 May 2020 @ 14:54
      The movie is just a retelling of Confucius’ analects for kids. There’s quite a lot of depth there.... I know, as I’ve had to watch it at least 50 times!
  • JL
    John L.
    22 May 2020 @ 22:17
    Can you folks not show the locked videos. It’s kind of space consuming in the app and teasing a subscriber.
    • WK
      Warren K.
      23 May 2020 @ 12:41
      Or maybe add a pay per video if there is a one off that interests us.
    • SL
      Sean L.
      23 May 2020 @ 14:52
      Lol that's never going to happen, it's the point. Wait until they start putting teasers for new pro vids in at the end of plus and lower vids with a link to upgrade - then you'll be really antsy. All respect to RV for teasing us, it demonstrates the value of what they do. They are, rightfully, constantly bragging about the quality of content of the higher tiers ON PURPOSE. Upgrading to Plus was some of the best money I've ever spent. This is all a hobby for me and I don't trade so I can't justify Pro... all of my assets are in small biz and hodling bitcoin and USD... there's no profitability in it for me... I'm basically just here to get a better understanding of what's happening in the world, more or less as a hobby... would love Pro content but can't justify the price tag. I always respect the hustle of the teasing though.
  • SD
    Serhii D.
    23 May 2020 @ 11:24
    What is the Robinhood effect?
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      23 May 2020 @ 13:56
      Retail traders.
  • NL
    Nicholas L.
    23 May 2020 @ 13:31
    Great discussion as usual guys! Could you please consider for Monday’s discussion. What areas of the world are likely (If any) to benefit from the solvency crisis?
  • MG
    Malcolm G.
    23 May 2020 @ 12:54
    Guys, nice one, "timeframes" and "patience" are the really important insights here - and this is what many of us lack as we move open to close and day to day. Standing back and looking at the whole picture is hard - importantly too living with real "uncertainty" - in a Keynesian sense - is even harder for a generation and an industry raised and built on a probabilistic paradigm. Enjoying (in a terrified way - lol) being on the journey with you all! Thanks, really lovin' this!
  • SS
    Steve S.
    22 May 2020 @ 22:20
    Raoul has switched the white cue ball and the rest of the balls in the opposite direction. He's trolling us 🤣 During AMA today which by the way I thought was absolutely epic, the white cueball was in its rightful place on the table. All was right with the world. This has been the case in every single video. Obviously something has seriously worsened since AMA. I'm seriously fearful, I am quaking in my boots fearful. What does this mean? Should I start building a secret bunker? Perhaps this signals that the Hope Phase is over, Hertz is about to go bankrupt, crushing the used cars market even further by unleashing its fleet onto the market. Thank God, I own Bitcoin, Gold, Dollars and Eurodollar calls. Otherwise I was about to about to over-react 🤣
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 May 2020 @ 22:37
      ;-)
    • KB
      Keith B.
      23 May 2020 @ 04:04
      Perhaps something is about to become inverted.....
    • WK
      Warren K.
      23 May 2020 @ 12:39
      Dude, I'm going to take a screen shot and filter out out poor ol' Raoul, then use all that awesome feng shui and those two cute dogs as my background for WFH Zoom meetings!
  • IP
    IDA P.
    23 May 2020 @ 09:47
    Please try to interview Russell Napier on the Eurozone situation, he is writing excellent articles these days
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 May 2020 @ 11:36
      good idea. I'll ask him.
  • IP
    IDA P.
    23 May 2020 @ 09:42
    Raoul, don't you find important these days the head and shoulders on the USDCNY? looks like China is about to devalue?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 May 2020 @ 11:36
      agree.
  • JK
    Jappie K.
    23 May 2020 @ 08:45
    Why does the equity of banks have to go to zero if the central bank is buying up their debt? If they can borrow against a better rate, shouldn't that be good for them? I really don't want to touch banks cause I don't understand how they even make money with a negative interest rate environment.
    • DB
      Daniella B.
      23 May 2020 @ 11:15
      debt-holders will be paid in bankruptcy, while the shareholders will be left with nothing (A - L = E = -XXX)
  • ac
    adam c.
    23 May 2020 @ 10:05
    Hi Raoul, Ed, brilliant briefings. Really enjoy listening to you guys summarising the key points each day. Can I ask about the UK and US housing markets and what you think could happens over the next 2-5 years.
    • ac
      adam c.
      23 May 2020 @ 10:06
      Ash not Ed I meant.
  • GS
    Gary S.
    22 May 2020 @ 22:35
    to be bullish bitcoin you have to be bullish tech. The same millenials , gen-z driving btc up are also driving tech up, its what they know...Raoul seems to accept one and reject the other. your not going to find many boomers dabbling or understanding either
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 May 2020 @ 04:01
      no.
    • JR
      John R.
      23 May 2020 @ 07:16
      One boomer here who is long NASDAQ and long btc.
    • PG
      Petter G.
      23 May 2020 @ 09:02
      Bitcoin has nothing to do with the Silicon Valley tech companies. Totally different industries. Whether or not people realize this is another story.
  • WA
    Wissam A.
    23 May 2020 @ 08:14
    Ash and Raoul in your next daily briefing can you please address whether the slow solvency problem can hit the tech sector specially the "secular growers" the cloud, Microsoft, Amazon etc? Thanks.
  • sz
    shuai z.
    23 May 2020 @ 08:12
    I am in China right now. Things are pretty normal right now with masks,body temp and personal safe code check point everywhere.
  • VS
    Ville S.
    23 May 2020 @ 08:04
    In Monday, please talk about the Saudis, Egypt etc...
  • AS
    Ash S.
    23 May 2020 @ 06:50
    So good, keep up the awesome work. PS I get so puzzled about who the hell gives the thumbs down on any of these videos, you've got to be kidding!? Call me lame but RV is my favourite past time! Haha.
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    23 May 2020 @ 06:29
    I have been addicted to RV, The Bond market is telling but I think Gold also. The first G-SIB failure will initially trigger widespread liquidations of bank-issued bonds and flights of large uninsured deposits from the riskier banks. Capital flight creates funding difficulties for vulnerable banks, and wholesale money markets will seize up. Attempts to proceed with bail-ins, which have been enacted into law by most if not all G20 nations will only make the situation worse. Bail-ins were designed to shift the cost of bank rescues to the private sector instead of governments, which is the case with bail-outs. Therefore, as banks fail there will be added penalties for bondholders and large depositors. Alasdair Macleod words
  • AC
    Alex C.
    23 May 2020 @ 03:06
    Amazing information, learning lots espc with all the excess noise nowdays. Would be great to get some coverage on how Taiwan fits in all this.
    • UJ
      Ulf J.
      23 May 2020 @ 05:56
      Yes next problem will be Taiwan, bigger problem then HK. China could make a move on Taiwan.
  • TL
    Tim L.
    23 May 2020 @ 04:13
    RAOUL: A "SPECTACULAR" MISALLOCATION OF CAPITAL: I'm interested in hearing more about why Raoul says US Corporations have been so "spectacular" at misallocating capital. (~12:30 min). Here are two ideas I'm interested in getting feedback on: 1) BAD INCENTIVES? How much of corporate management's capital allocation decisions have been the rational response to bad incentives? Is this just a case where management's compensation model sees more value to be gained from riskless buybacks than with less lucrative and more risky productive investments? LOW-INTEREST RATES (Low-interest rates are the obvious factor that enables leveraged buybacks, but this doesn't explain why borrowing to finance buybacks is more attractive than borrowing to finance productive investments.) 2) FINANCIAL WEAKNESS LEADS TO CAPITAL MISALLOCATION? Less openly described: How much of these capital misallocation decisions are related to corporations' negative assessment of their consumers' balance sheets and growth prospects? According to this theory: Why invest for productive growth when your consumers can't afford to consume more? (solvency issues can lead to capital misallocation)
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    22 May 2020 @ 22:56
    any good chart to follows the bonds in the world thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 May 2020 @ 04:01
      2 year US bond yields.
  • NJ
    Nimitt J.
    23 May 2020 @ 02:52
    Hey do you script these talks or they are free flowing? just love the format... Re Bitcoin I would rather buy a basket of companies like nvidia, electricity generation and distribution cos etc....
  • RZ
    Richard Z.
    23 May 2020 @ 02:25
    Thank you Raoul for providing such clarity on the current issues. Realy good one Ash.
  • IN
    I N.
    23 May 2020 @ 02:08
    Bonus points for Ash for mentioning Gore Vidal. (His essay books are right by my desk.)
  • JB
    J B.
    23 May 2020 @ 01:45
    Thank you guys
  • LL
    Lukee L.
    23 May 2020 @ 01:32
    CCP is disgusting
  • se
    steve e.
    23 May 2020 @ 01:08
    Great stuff! thank you.
  • JW
    Jude W.
    23 May 2020 @ 00:59
    I LOVED the solvency vs liquidity explanation in the last third of this video. Excellent! Light-bulb moment for me. I keep hearing about this solvency thing and I thought I knew what it was but I realize now it's actually much more encompassing then what I was thinking initially. Thanks for the clarity!!
  • DM
    Darren M.
    23 May 2020 @ 00:29
    Really good conversation. Thanks guys.
  • JZ
    Juerg Z.
    23 May 2020 @ 00:27
    Excellent!
  • JD
    Jeffrey D.
    22 May 2020 @ 23:39
    Bit stoned, so had to keep rewinding to catch the huge insight. Really fast 30 minutes.
    • cs
      connor s.
      23 May 2020 @ 00:01
      these guys don't know much about the nascent cannabis industry, unfortunately. Absolute inflection point in that market right now, COVID-19 being the accelerant as well as essential goods designation by all Govs. Real Vision will cover it one day ... tough for them to find experts in the space
  • cs
    connor s.
    22 May 2020 @ 23:59
    fire!
  • PB
    Paul B.
    22 May 2020 @ 23:55
    Yes I'm watching the World Daily Figures Covid 19 and its going higher
  • MD
    Matt D.
    22 May 2020 @ 23:41
    Thanks Ash and Raoul, Enjoyable to watch/listen to today's video. I was having a bit of a laugh yet at the same could tell that Raoul is dead serious - despite the positive, cheerful demeanour. Cheers.
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    22 May 2020 @ 22:55
    great interview congrats to all real vision team
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      22 May 2020 @ 23:37
      Thanks, Ernesto. Much appreciated.
  • OA
    Oliver A.
    22 May 2020 @ 23:18
    The simplest and most enjoyable explanation of liquidity vs solvency I’ve heard since this began. Cheers!
  • MR
    Matthew R.
    22 May 2020 @ 23:06
    Great interview. Pretty much in line with what I am expecting. The big question I'm trying to get my head around now is why does a negative interest world look like, and for how long is that likely to last. I'm guessing until the fed runs out of ammunition and cannot afford to keep propping up the bond market without destroying the dollar. That could be a long time if all the other countries in the world are playing the same game, either way it's going to be rocket fuel for gold. There are so many scenarios though, and I haven't seen much content on negative interest rates and what that is going to mean.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    22 May 2020 @ 22:41
    I thought we all agreed to only discuss the market index performance excluding the FANG + Microsoft stocks! :-) It's a much less rosy picture.