Comments
Transcript
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SKRaoul’s dogs should be a permanent part of his backstage scenery
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WMRaoul at some point we need to confirm what you mean by "this is the end game" under the deflation scenario and rising real rates. This implies financial chaos and serious government intervention in markets. I am assuming you are referring to a deflationary debt collapse. I assume this means markets will collapse or be shut. Given the fragility of todays financial system and social construct, this feels like revolution and civil war to me. Sorry if thats overly negative, but I am wondering if I have any options as a retiree, or if the 2 metals, brass & lead become paramount.
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SSAlso the S&P and DOW have what "could be" the "Mother of all H&S patterns forming - now in right shoulder? The Nasdaq perhaps the "Mother of all Double Tops"? Love to hear Raoul's or anyone else's thoughts?
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SSLook at the monthly AUD/USD and EURO/USD charts. Is the "Mother of all Head & Shoulders" patterns forming?
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CLGreat interview. One thing I would like to be further described is that Raoul has said on a number of occasions in regard to debt/solvency is that if xyz happens it's "game over." I have in my mind what "game over" means, but it may be something entirely different than Raoul. It would be interesting and helpful to hear what Raoul means - what "game over" looks like in reality. Thanks for all you guys do.
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APwould like if today you can touch issues with LA an Mexico
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SLAsh mentions that the AMA should be available to Plus and Pro members - is this correct? I can't access it as a plus acct...
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jkHi Gents. Love the show. Real Vision continues to fuel my passion for finance! US UK markets are closed, it would be interesting to hear some of Raoul's and Ash's opinions on more of the Emerging Markets, what this will do for bond holders (Lebanon defaulted $1.2billion before the crisis!, Argentina defer $500 million bond payment, 7th or 9th time, i forget exactly, already too many! and who is next, South Africa perhaps?) , and how the global financial order might change with China the only real contender to US led SWIFT with their own digital wallet system, particularly interested to hear Raoul's thoughts on China anti-bitcoin with the launch of its new digital currency this June or July as a pilot project! Would this encourage such diversity away from SWIFT?
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CBRaoul, would you mind at some point commenting on two possible threats to the BTC thesis - one is that BTC is going to zero due to government regulation (refer Jim Rogers most recent interview on RV), and another is the idea that crypto will eventually crumble due to quantum computing enabled hacking - thank you.
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JCHi Raoul and Ash, love your work. I am trying to identify 4-5 metrics that I can follow that are not lagging indicators that will help in allocating cash. I know you follow the bond yields closely, are there any others eg PMI that help? Thanks for this extremely valuable resource.
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FFMy issue with Gold in a deflationary situation is that it goes down. I have noticed that Gold moves along with an inverted Real Rates chart spot on. We need CPI to stay positive.
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fkOn the Corona side: right now we can estimate between 10MM and 20MM people have been infected in the US -- with 100K confirmed deaths. So there is a LOT of room for growth. The "plateau" of the last 2 months in the US could easily break out into a 5-10x between here and November. This could have a material impact on consumer psychology.
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AJHi Raoul Thanks for a very insightful take on the week. A lot is bring talked about the possible Japanification of the US/ UK. Can this happen without a solvency crisis? Back in 2009-10 the banks came out of this mess by creating a good c bank and a bad bank. Nothing stops fed from doing that for all its borrowers.
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DKYour (pool) balls are in wrong order
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DII understood Richard that it is bad for the economy to have only one bank in the country with different branches like in Soviet Union. Successful economies should have many small banks like Japan before the restructuring and like Germany before the ECB. ECB wants more power and with negative interest rates it will kill all the banks in EU.
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AmGreat stuff gents, if you do a round the world on Monday I would love to hear thoughts on australia re great virus outcome and trade tensions up with China. Cheers
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CMAsh: So grateful to hear you say "primer" as you did. Next "prescient" will roll off the tongue in two syllables. Thanks for the great interview(s)!
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DWThank you for this overview and update on things.....I'm trying to get some kind of a grip on this - now and as it evolves. I'm grateful - I'll post some of our dog treats to you!...perfect with coconut lol.
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JSRaoul, what do you see for mortgage rates as the 2 year goes negative? Currently, we are at around 3% for 30 year fixed in the US. I saw a headline in Germany of a negative 0.14% "teaser" mortgage. Do you see a 1% 30 year mortgage or lower for the US?
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NJHi Raoul While I believe with your assessment that asset class like Gold and crypto currencies like Bitcoin might find preference in the current period of crisis. However I think the obsession will be only with hedge funds and HNIs. In case of the majority of common people often labelled as middle class / emerging economies / undeveloped countries, land will see a huge rise in terms of store of value. Esp. land parcels which have access to fresh water, sunlight and less prone to extreme weather. These can also be residential projects with access to good infrastructure facilities. It will be back to basics and hence value of exotics will burst over a period of time. I also think countries like China are expanding their area of influence over vast areas of land for probably the same considerations. The developed world is fast losing that influence and control. Appreciate your comments.
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MLGreat discussion! Well prepared and executed guys!
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JDI'm so saddened for the people of Hong Kong. To have democracy, freedom of speech and then have it taken away and replaced with suppression and fear.... hard to believe such a thing could happen in 2020.
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ATMy impression is that we already had a global solvency issue albeit less acute going into this. We've had anemic GDP growth even with large chronic deficits at least since GFC1 with the root issues coming well before. Have we really had growth? Would the fantasy coming true of getting back to normal really solve anything or simply provide more time?
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BHMeanwhile on main street, here's a sobering report from the BBC's Nick Bryant on how middle-class Americans are queuing at food banks as US unemployment hits 38 million: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWT9aOE0OGo&feature=youtu.be
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wjDebt is rising exponentially just like covid numbers if you put the charts together you will see the covid numbers are showing where the debt is going.
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vdUK is extending the mortgage holidays by another 3 months on top of the initial 3. Seems like the free money train is here to stay for quite some time...
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aj`Hi all basic question if i dont mind- is the rational behind negative yields and why this is a sign of a global depression is that central banks buying bonds pushing down yields ? could someone explain further ?
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JIRaoul. I like your framework and the direction/trends you point to. It would be great if you could share (maybe on the Monday briefing) some thoughts on potential timeframes (or its triggers). Maybe there is a scenario for a faster unfolding of the trends you say and a much slower one. It could very well be that CBs can go on for much much longer and “the music continues to play” a long time before it “stops”?. Excellent ideas too early could then be wrong? Thoughts on timeframes/triggers? I’d appreciate your thoughts. Thanks!
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HDGreat tandem these two.. Ash, splendid interviewer, seems to have all the right information at hand to make valuable episodes with whoever is sitting at the other end. Bolted to the chair, esp every friday because of the great information in these noisy and uncertain times. Raoul dissects and gets to the core of what really matters and what might be at hand.
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JVhere in Belgium +90% of the people also say WIEFIE instead of WIFI (correct pronounced)
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OMRaoul - true to being attracting to your fears. I was cutting a watermelon today, which I have done 100x. For whatever reason, before I was cutting I was thinking, damn, I better not cut my hand. Sure enough I sliced my finger. It happened. The more one focuses their energies on making sure something does not happen, sure enough it happens. My .02$. Onto our canoe trip this weekend. Cheers RV, ya'll are the best. Rest, Relax, Rejuvenate.
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JLCan you folks not show the locked videos. It’s kind of space consuming in the app and teasing a subscriber.
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SDWhat is the Robinhood effect?
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NLGreat discussion as usual guys! Could you please consider for Monday’s discussion. What areas of the world are likely (If any) to benefit from the solvency crisis?
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MGGuys, nice one, "timeframes" and "patience" are the really important insights here - and this is what many of us lack as we move open to close and day to day. Standing back and looking at the whole picture is hard - importantly too living with real "uncertainty" - in a Keynesian sense - is even harder for a generation and an industry raised and built on a probabilistic paradigm. Enjoying (in a terrified way - lol) being on the journey with you all! Thanks, really lovin' this!
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SSRaoul has switched the white cue ball and the rest of the balls in the opposite direction. He's trolling us 🤣 During AMA today which by the way I thought was absolutely epic, the white cueball was in its rightful place on the table. All was right with the world. This has been the case in every single video. Obviously something has seriously worsened since AMA. I'm seriously fearful, I am quaking in my boots fearful. What does this mean? Should I start building a secret bunker? Perhaps this signals that the Hope Phase is over, Hertz is about to go bankrupt, crushing the used cars market even further by unleashing its fleet onto the market. Thank God, I own Bitcoin, Gold, Dollars and Eurodollar calls. Otherwise I was about to about to over-react 🤣
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IPPlease try to interview Russell Napier on the Eurozone situation, he is writing excellent articles these days
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IPRaoul, don't you find important these days the head and shoulders on the USDCNY? looks like China is about to devalue?
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JKWhy does the equity of banks have to go to zero if the central bank is buying up their debt? If they can borrow against a better rate, shouldn't that be good for them? I really don't want to touch banks cause I don't understand how they even make money with a negative interest rate environment.
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acHi Raoul, Ed, brilliant briefings. Really enjoy listening to you guys summarising the key points each day. Can I ask about the UK and US housing markets and what you think could happens over the next 2-5 years.
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GSto be bullish bitcoin you have to be bullish tech. The same millenials , gen-z driving btc up are also driving tech up, its what they know...Raoul seems to accept one and reject the other. your not going to find many boomers dabbling or understanding either
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WAAsh and Raoul in your next daily briefing can you please address whether the slow solvency problem can hit the tech sector specially the "secular growers" the cloud, Microsoft, Amazon etc? Thanks.
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szI am in China right now. Things are pretty normal right now with masks,body temp and personal safe code check point everywhere.
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VSIn Monday, please talk about the Saudis, Egypt etc...
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ASSo good, keep up the awesome work. PS I get so puzzled about who the hell gives the thumbs down on any of these videos, you've got to be kidding!? Call me lame but RV is my favourite past time! Haha.
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UJI have been addicted to RV, The Bond market is telling but I think Gold also. The first G-SIB failure will initially trigger widespread liquidations of bank-issued bonds and flights of large uninsured deposits from the riskier banks. Capital flight creates funding difficulties for vulnerable banks, and wholesale money markets will seize up. Attempts to proceed with bail-ins, which have been enacted into law by most if not all G20 nations will only make the situation worse. Bail-ins were designed to shift the cost of bank rescues to the private sector instead of governments, which is the case with bail-outs. Therefore, as banks fail there will be added penalties for bondholders and large depositors. Alasdair Macleod words
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ACAmazing information, learning lots espc with all the excess noise nowdays. Would be great to get some coverage on how Taiwan fits in all this.
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TLRAOUL: A "SPECTACULAR" MISALLOCATION OF CAPITAL: I'm interested in hearing more about why Raoul says US Corporations have been so "spectacular" at misallocating capital. (~12:30 min). Here are two ideas I'm interested in getting feedback on: 1) BAD INCENTIVES? How much of corporate management's capital allocation decisions have been the rational response to bad incentives? Is this just a case where management's compensation model sees more value to be gained from riskless buybacks than with less lucrative and more risky productive investments? LOW-INTEREST RATES (Low-interest rates are the obvious factor that enables leveraged buybacks, but this doesn't explain why borrowing to finance buybacks is more attractive than borrowing to finance productive investments.) 2) FINANCIAL WEAKNESS LEADS TO CAPITAL MISALLOCATION? Less openly described: How much of these capital misallocation decisions are related to corporations' negative assessment of their consumers' balance sheets and growth prospects? According to this theory: Why invest for productive growth when your consumers can't afford to consume more? (solvency issues can lead to capital misallocation)
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ERany good chart to follows the bonds in the world thanks
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NJHey do you script these talks or they are free flowing? just love the format... Re Bitcoin I would rather buy a basket of companies like nvidia, electricity generation and distribution cos etc....
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RZThank you Raoul for providing such clarity on the current issues. Realy good one Ash.
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INBonus points for Ash for mentioning Gore Vidal. (His essay books are right by my desk.)
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JBThank you guys
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LLCCP is disgusting
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seGreat stuff! thank you.
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JWI LOVED the solvency vs liquidity explanation in the last third of this video. Excellent! Light-bulb moment for me. I keep hearing about this solvency thing and I thought I knew what it was but I realize now it's actually much more encompassing then what I was thinking initially. Thanks for the clarity!!
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DMReally good conversation. Thanks guys.
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JZExcellent!
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JDBit stoned, so had to keep rewinding to catch the huge insight. Really fast 30 minutes.
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csfire!
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PBYes I'm watching the World Daily Figures Covid 19 and its going higher
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MDThanks Ash and Raoul, Enjoyable to watch/listen to today's video. I was having a bit of a laugh yet at the same could tell that Raoul is dead serious - despite the positive, cheerful demeanour. Cheers.
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ERgreat interview congrats to all real vision team
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OAThe simplest and most enjoyable explanation of liquidity vs solvency I’ve heard since this began. Cheers!
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MRGreat interview. Pretty much in line with what I am expecting. The big question I'm trying to get my head around now is why does a negative interest world look like, and for how long is that likely to last. I'm guessing until the fed runs out of ammunition and cannot afford to keep propping up the bond market without destroying the dollar. That could be a long time if all the other countries in the world are playing the same game, either way it's going to be rocket fuel for gold. There are so many scenarios though, and I haven't seen much content on negative interest rates and what that is going to mean.
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MTI thought we all agreed to only discuss the market index performance excluding the FANG + Microsoft stocks! :-) It's a much less rosy picture.