Comments
Transcript
-
VRMichael Lewis in The Fifth Risk talked about the electrical grid collapse being a big risk. Nice to hear Tony thinking along these lines. Our world continues to use more and more energy. Beautiful back and forth interview with two smart people.
-
MPAs they say, ***k the haters! Please, bring Tony back as often as possible. I lack the technical skills he has, that's why his perspective is extremely valuable to many and many others here I imagine. Thanks Tony and Ash for an excellent segment! I am wondering what Tony thinks about the tech stocks and their short term future based on his analysis.
-
BPExcellent, love the nightly update and the variation of guests. Tony is great to have on for his views on the tape/trade/sectors, etc. Great piece Ash
-
MRI'm glad to hear the short term perspective from an expert in the field as a change of pace. We get a lot of speculation in the mid to long term, but it's often hard to come by good short term perspectives without resorting to someone drawing pictures and arrows on charts. For that reason, I like this video. Plus I really like these daily briefings, and will keep my sub going if these become permanent.
-
RTWhat about that last hour for S&P?
-
CWTony Greer is so short term in his observations. I don't feel it's advantageous to listen. He says home building is going to be at close to full capacity. I mean, don't even know where to start with that. 100% the reason I'm not renewing my Pro Sub.
-
JLThis is WS and investors chasing low price and believing the fed will not let it fail or they will buy everything Tony can not name one factor related to solid economic reasons other than a chase. Investors chased Norwegian Cruise Lines from 11-19 on NCL was a low stock price. Today NCL is 11 again after saying the do not have enough $ for this year, next year or maybe ever again Algos and idiots at there worst No one connecting a dot 30MM+ unemployed and broke. 40% of US consumers have no savings now. Msot of them will owe from 2-3 months of back rent/mortgages and car payments. they have no more credit either. They had 2+ jobs and will be lucky to get 1 job back. Whoever thins there is a restart, they are nuts. Home construction is nutter than ever Tony is off base here
-
ABHi, guys. Interesting comments. Let me jump with my view — and tell you why I think Tony's perspective is so valuable and insightful on this show. I ran Nouriel Roubini's macroeconomics blog — and I worked on a big bank trading desk, supporting trading ops. In my experience, the guys sitting on desks who are tactically trading markets, on time frames in the range of hours to days, think, talk, and view the world the way Tony does — and he's a master at communicating his insights with precision and clarity. (If you're following these markets, and thinking like a Ph.D. macroeconomist, or a fundamental analyst in the Graham/Dodd sense, the price action we're seeing in markets right now doesn't make any sense.) One of the reasons I'm excited to get out of bed every day is that I know my view of the way the world works is going to get challenged. Where else am I going to get to see Stan Druckenmiller, Raoul and Hugh Hendry, Paul Krugman — and Tony Greer? Getting to listen to all of these divergent opinions, from grand-macro to hyper-tactical, and to learn from all of these guys, is, for me at least, part of the magic of RV. I read pretty much every comment every day...Very curious to hear what you guys think...
-
TDA problem with a lot of us macro guys is that we think too far out and miss the massive moves in between. It's great to have on people like Tony who can articulate, with good reasoning, how things might play out in a shorter time-frame. Keep it up, Tony! Hope to see you on here more often.
-
ASGrab yourself a proper podcasting mic Ash, it will decrease the room reverberation noise. :)
-
KBGreat video and really informative. Give us more of this!!!
-
RDLearnt a long time ago to leave idealism at the market door when you walk in... trade the ticker and not your idealism. Great to have Tony on for a refreshing contra perspective!
-
SRwhat does "40 Vol" mean??
-
PWHas of the last month or so, my trading range has been 1 to 4ish days. There are very little fundamentals in these markets. If I see $500 to 1k to the green I take it! snipers-are-us. I see where you are coming from Tony, good thinking
-
RKWith all respect man, for somebody who spends his day looking at moving averages on his screen pushing buttons one would expect a bit more humility when talking about real investors like the old fart Omaha main man Buffet.
-
CSHow are you going to “bang nails” and bring back housing when you have extremely high unemployment and no one to purchase those homes?
-
PBDoes this Guy even look at International Travel, Unemployment, forward looking Company Earnings...Love these charts Guys, they live in there own little World, you Americans are in for a world of Pain...I'd be betting on anything other than the Stock Market about to go into the Insolvency Phase. Keep watching your Tape Buddy.
-
MCTony may be successful at what he does, good for him and I wish him luck. But I would like to question whether tape chasing talk with its bluster and bravado and the incoherent narratives plucked from all over the place pretending to be some form of due dilligence is something that adds value to RV or dilutes value. Chasing the tape is just what it is. Chase the tape. There isn't much else to it. I think this style of coversation should be left to those who do it best at CNBC. Everyone at RV does a great job and delivers awesome content. I am very happy with my subscription. But its not possible and not realistic to expect that you are going to get amazing insights about markets everyday. In fact its usually rare. On these days it would be better to cut the daily video down to 5 or 10 minutes. Nobody will respect you less for it. Quality over quantity.
-
TSFor some reason, Tony reminds me of Nassim Taleb's Fat Tony
-
CDSo Tony would you be one of those people that would be willing to go to a restaurant or the Apple store in NY for a grand reopening?
-
HEAre there any "discounts" available to TG Macro for Real Vision clients?
-
RAI am always so disappointed when they choose Tony for the daily briefing. Who cares what short term speculators are doing trying to pick up pennies in front of bull dozers. I am paying for a Real Vision, subscription not Real Traders. I have never heard anything from Tony and thought to myself wow, that is really insightful. Please have more briefings with Raoul.
-
LLHey Tony I appreciate your input. The comments have been really nasty today - and I am sorry. We need to hear views that may be opposed to our own. I just cant afford to pick up quarters in front of a bus. So I will wait until 3300 or so, and hopefully the market and the real economy will get more in sync. Once I see that Ill feel safer putting $ to work. Please continue to participate - we need your perspective
-
EHI have to completely disagree with anyone complaining about having Tony on. He’s a great change of pace from the broader macro discussion. Most macro conversations have to obviously lean towards the real economic conditions but that doesn’t always translate to the shorter/medium term market opportunities. Love the content!
-
SHI think a lot of people here (including myself when I started watching the video), are experiencing a lot of cognitive dissonance because the global macro situation is really grim whereas Tony is talking about the short term upside in the market and the factors that are driving it. One I think people need to consider when watching RV videos is that guests are using different time horizons as the basis of their analysis and they don’t always explicitly outline the duration of that horizon. Most guests on RV are typically assessing specific industries with respect to its stage in its own market cycle or looking at the global macro over its market cycle. So, they are looking on much longer TF’s i.e. somewhere between 1-5 years from what I’ve observed. Tony is talking about reassessing his bullish bias when the S&P reaches a strong technical resistance at 3030 ( 5.8% up from close). With vol at ~40 and S&P closing yesterday at 2868 that could literally happen within the next couple of days/weeks. So, you’ve got to remember that his thesis is very short term and heavily based on the impact of re-opening which I believe makes it very fitting to have on a daily update. From watching Tony’s previous RV video it sounds like he trades in >3 month TF’s and so when I watch his videos I weigh the strength of his opinions accordingly. i.e. anything in the next couple months may be very valid and beyond that, there is probably better real vision guests to pay attention to.
-
JLLets remind ourselves of one thing...We are the RV community.... Why quibble and insult contributors. Ok so they may not be your cup of tea. Maybe hand gestures bother you..get over it ! Not all daily briefings will suit everyone. Its so valuable to have at our fingertips, one interview about Global Macro, another about short term technicals, tale of the tape type info that TG provides, right at the coal face. One minute, I'm looking at the chart of truth by Raoul, the next click, I see the double top around 3030 on the SP500 to which TG refers during last Fall. It all has value..We learn more from both. It doesn't have to be either/or. FA and TA. For mine, Godspeed Iron Man (TG). May you navigate well each morn.
-
NLHaving watched Tony’s interviews several times. I have signed up to his news letter. Along with other services. The idea that most want to make the world a fairer place! Unfortunately, this is not how the world works.
-
RKTonyG the market realist! thank you.
-
MDKeep Tony on, we need the mix! Went with puts at the last fib retracement, to early clearly. Best with RV is the mix och global macro and tech hard on trader. Ash, could you get some macro guy on who knows Basel updates and how it puts gold back in to the global financial markets in pair with cash and gov bonds?
-
OMTony is great, a great guest. keep him coming back.
-
AKThis was an endorsement deal for Bitcoin, "do not bet against the FED". Yes I am definitely betting against them, I am calling bs on their unit of account, and I am calling bs on their right to print crap and claim it has value.
-
DSCoach John Wooden - "it is ok to disagree, it is not ok to be disagreeable." Why would anyone want to listen to someone they agree with completely. The reason is simple, they are stupid. DLS
-
PBFantastic conversation! Thanks a lot guys!
-
DSIt is in every person's interest in the United States to have excellent testing and follow up as we reopen. This will help keep the casualties lower. Yes, casualties as this is a national war against the Coronavirus. If the federal government can do it, then do it. If federal government is not able to set up a workable program, then a basic state grant to each state should be made by the federal government for setting up - we are printing money helter skelter anyway. This should be followed by a grant to each state based on population for testing. I hope we get some terrific medications to make the treatment radically better at home. I hope we get a vaccine as soon as possible. At the same time in a country that has so many people traveling from state to state, we need national testing as we open up. It should be a top priority. DLS
-
AWAsh, firstly want to say you have a wonderful interview style. So respectful, thoughtful and encouraging of your guests. You do a wonderful job! Secondly, I love the way RV provides lots of different perspectives, for your audience to consider. I was interested in Tony’s view on $25 oil and energy producers. Erik Townsend is an oil specialist investor. Have you listened to his Macro Voices interview with Jim Bianco (Hot Topic 14) on April 28th on the subject of Crude Oil? They take the opposite view. Very interesting times we live in!
-
ASNice interview and good to hear various perspectives. thank you team.
-
DSGreat. Thank you for having Tony back. With the historic shocks to the economy, I'm big-picture bearish, but Tony's insights protect my bull flank. If you watch the market over the past month, anytime we have a sell-off, or even a "sell-signal" there's a strong bid waiting just down at the next support level.
-
DSAlways good to hear Mr. Greer's trading advice. The tape is a momentary reality. You must forget the non-essentials. Thanks. DLS
-
NSThe cases outside NY continue to grow exponentially. Unfortunately this is not going away fast. Heres the graph. https://rpubs.com/covid_tracker/609934
-
BROutstanding.
-
JDI work O&G and while reduced capex will greatly reduce supply, there is still way too much oil out there. Oil should plummet again or at least all the companies will when next quarters earnings are out. Way more companies need to go bankrupt before I buy back in.
-
PBSo the Story is the Americans are all in on the one bet "The Fed" and the rest of the World is taking the Inverse Bet. Good luck with that, considering 65% of your Economy relies on a tapped out consumer
-
PBNot sure why such a high percentage of downvotes. The guest was sober and objective. Just the tape. Optics. Perception. Fed. I'm with others that I wanted to buy and missed the five trading days in late March to do so. Oh, well, my fault. The guest is near-term, nay, immediate-term, data focused. Re Buffett, who cares. Sure, one of the greatest. But, Buffett built a mythology and milked it for decades. Good riddance once he and his co-manager retire. Go now, already. Can't wait til they are gone from the picture. Buffet adds very little to the discussion about our collective future. Buffett doesn't care about you. (@buffett please retire already.) The guest also included some trading tips on sectors. What's to downvote? Just the facts. Not emotional. Not attached to a position. Even for the macro-oriented like myself, what's not to like.
-
PBIn future I wont be watching the video's with this Clown
-
JAFedWatching might be profitable, but it ain't investing. I like this guy Tony because he recognizes the difference. Such a crude view into the way moral hazard plays out is valuable. Sad, but valuable.
-
SLPolitely, it's tough to digest a "macro" view that's provided by a technical, tape-focused trader with a 6 monitor setup that looks like the control center of the USS Nautilus. I think that this type of analysis belongs on the menu here, but not necessarily as part of the macro daily briefing line up.
-
JAJust read through all the comments. So many people hating on Tony with the old "he'll get his in the end' bit. Dude reads tape, if the market turns he'll know way before anyone else and get short, and then you'll hate him for being right about the market going down.
-
JAThis dude is awesome. I love this guy. Please, more tape and TA traders! Tony is a savage xoxo
-
GWTony - great job. Couldn’t agree with your oil outlook anymore. Many thanks for that I needed the reinforcement in my framework.
-
DHThe comments are fair. Nevertheless, I enjoyed the interview because it gave me a clearer look at how this particular trader approaches the market and might help me with my modest bets. In the May Insider Talks Raoul described himself as long term and Julian as perhaps somewhat shorter term, all in months and perhaps years. This guy is days and weeks, but some of his ideas were interesting. Real Vision has a macro bias and that is why I subscribe, but I wouldn’t throw Tony overboard for being focused on what is happening next week. An occasional reminder of that perspective seems worthwhile.
-
SGHow quickly can narrative change from one video to another. One day we hear about empty streets in NY and how demand collapsed and the other day we hear how demand for housing can snap back as if people are sitting on a pile of cash and just waiting for an opportunity to buy their house. Even if rates remain low for a foreseeable future if less than half of working age Americans will be earning a wage this month how could a demand for houses snap back? I think once Tony adopts a humble presenting style more people would listen to him.
-
RMThanks Tony, joining your newsletter last week saved my arse after I blew 50% of my March put gains. I was being dogmatic and the market was handing my arse to me. I have no doubt I would be up over $800k had I changed my Apple puts to calls in early April.
-
JSThe Fed can’t keep this market propped up forever...
-
FAThe bond market has been betting against the Fed....and guess what...they’ve been right