Daily Briefing – November 9, 2020

Published on
November 9th, 2020
Duration
42 minutes


Daily Briefing – November 9, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Ash Bennington and Ed Harrison

Published on: November 9th, 2020 • Duration: 42 minutes

NOTE: THIS DAILY BRIEFING WAS FILMED THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5. Fielding questions from Real Vision subscribers, senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, analyze how the various outcomes of the 2020 U.S. election will impact markets. Ash and Ed talk about the future of Real Vision content, price action across bitcoin, bonds, and equities, and the likely underperformance of the 60/40 portfolio should the economy enter a cyclical downturn. Ash and Ed analyze how the prospect of divided government (i.e., a Biden presidency coinciding with a Republican senate) will affect earnings potential and fiscal stimulus. They also share their views on potential cabinets picks for the next U.S. President.

Comments

Transcript

  • AP
    Alfonso P.
    12 November 2020 @ 14:50
    Doing prerecordings in daily briefings should be questioned
  • ZM
    Zane M.
    11 November 2020 @ 21:21
    Politics aside, with 128k covid cases per day, -what Biden decisions are on the horizon.
  • DS
    David S.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:54
    Can somebody that's clear thinking explain to me how a Bitcoin as an asset class/commodity is expressed by a line of code.....are you friggin' kidding me? Hand me a tulip, at least I can hold it.
    • DT
      David T.
      10 November 2020 @ 00:58
      U can't hold the digital tulips ;)
    • RM
      Robert M.
      10 November 2020 @ 01:38
      In your camp on this one.
    • Sp
      Scott p.
      10 November 2020 @ 01:47
      I'm not a computer scientist but I'm going to try a rough explainer and probably butcher it. Bitcoin was the invention of digital scarcity and it turns out in economics, scarcity is worth a lot especially when alternatives are being debased. This is why we've historically valued gold as money. Read the Bitcoin Standard by Safeidean Ammous, you'll thank me later. It uses cryptography and a blockchain, which are basically mathematical tricks to create what seems like magic. It's not magic though, it's just clever mathematics run on computers. The cryptography allows us to generate bitcoin wallets (like a bank account) that come with a public address and a private key. You can generate unique wallets using mathematics (don't even need a computer). In doing so you will create one of 1,461,501,637,330,902,918,203,684,832,716,283,019,655,932,542,976 possible secret keys and addresses! (https://cryptalker.com/how-many-addresses/). I've heard that it's so unlikely to generate the same keys twice that you're more likely to win the lottery a million time in a row. Using encryption (why your passwords are secure online), It's possible to use the secret key to spend bitcoin from the address without anyone ever knowing. So this is just like a bank account, except remember, the secret key is just a hexadecimal, which can also be expressed as 12 words (clever maths again). So basically you can remember these words or number, and destroy everything else, but the bitcoin balance will still exist. So it's like a bank account without the need for a bank, but nobody knows you created it, and nobody knows you have it, and it doesn't exist in the physical realm. But the really big thing here that that it has a FIXED supply. There can never be more than 21M bitcoin. It will never be debased by a government. It's unconfiscatible in this example, and can be transferred instantly to anyone in the world simply by uttering 12 basic words. So It's gold without inflation, and with the bonus of not being tied down to being physical, Magic Gold. Turns out that Magic Gold is worth a lot... and it makes sense to be worth a lot more than boring non-magic gold. So yes, it's an asset, and the best asset in the world to own right now because only a small percentage of people understand it. They don't have to understand it though, because in history (as you'll see when you read the bitcoin standard), Good money always beats out bad.
    • Sp
      Scott p.
      10 November 2020 @ 01:53
      Also go here, www.bitcoin-resources.com. The answers to all you're questions about Bitcoin can be found in the resources on that site. People smarter than you and I have already asked and answered any question we can think of. The Smartest people in the world are getting into bitcoin, take a week off and do some reading, The only investment in the world that's better than bitcoin itself.
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      10 November 2020 @ 07:05
      If there is enough trust in Bitcoin and that trust persists, it becomes an asset class. Just like Gold.
    • FL
      Fabrizio L.
      10 November 2020 @ 08:17
      This everything bubble started bursting in late 2018, air is being let out from thousands of little cracks and the industry, the regulators and politics is trying hard to patch them up, in order to keep the bubble from blowing the biggest bang of the last 100 years. The essence of capitalism has gone, economies grow with debt not with productivity, there are a limited number of outcomes and they will fail, and at the bottom of the big bang, when risk aversion will be out of the scale, the great reset will be at its top, then all speculative fads will be telling us their real worth, this will apply for cannabis for bitcoin for tech for tulips and for debt. I am looking forward to stoking up in those times, maybe bitcoin will tell us its true worth then! in the meantime I wait and continue doing what I do well, olive oil, and since i do not have to earn fees, or sell advertisements I can look at financial markets without FOMO or lack of alternative! so keep safe and sell too soon!
    • MS
      Mark S.
      10 November 2020 @ 16:36
      @Scott P: Excellent clear writing. I just finished the Bitcoin Standard. Can you post this in the EXCHANGE?
    • Sp
      Scott p.
      11 November 2020 @ 21:01
      Thanks Mark, no worries I will, Caveat I am not an expert DYOR.
  • MA
    Martinez A.
    10 November 2020 @ 07:46
    Be careful. Lightning Network relies on pre-funded channels. As far as international remittance, that's status quo. There are technical limitations like the reliance on the underlying network (BTC Layer 1 - still slow). I just don't see the usecase for LN as world class enterprise solution for trade given the competition from CBDCs and other digital payments options. Time will tell.
    • Sp
      Scott p.
      11 November 2020 @ 21:00
      Perhaps there will be shadow chains seperate from LN. An enterprised specialised chain. Liquid network is pretty fast.
  • LH
    Luis H.
    11 November 2020 @ 00:35
    Bad luck, you guys choose one of the worst possible days for a pre-record !
  • dl
    donald l.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:14
    Way off on election from hell, IMO. Massive fraud from Dems is so obvious to even mainstream debt serfs that the election system is doomed. And the SC will absolutely be required to take this very seriously. I believe they will find for Trump. This will prove to be a transformational event for the US. The bid by the media to manipulate the election for the Dems is another aspect of this disaster that will have serious repercussions. I am positive about how this will help the citizens to see through the corruption and will lead to a very positive outcome after the dust settles and the system collapses into a reset.
    • LF
      Liam F.
      10 November 2020 @ 23:11
      Evidence, or go away!
  • DB
    Donald B.
    10 November 2020 @ 02:41
    I'm a Veteran. Veterans Day is on 11 November-Wednesday. Wednesday, November 11th marks the Armistice and it is a day designated to show appreciation to living Veterans, not dead ones, that day "celebrated" on Memorial Day. It is insulting to me to "celebrate" Veterans Day on any other day. Go find some old bugger who served, shake their hand, thank them, let them talk about themselves and buy him or her dinner FFS. Today is Monday, 9 November AKA Tuesday morning 10 November here in Bangkok, Thailand. I turned on RVDB to get some knowledgable perspective on today's (last nights) market. Adding insult to injury to some nonsense about Veterans Day there was no talk of today's markets. Don't call it a Daily briefing if there is no UTD timely analysis on the day. I love you guys and appreciate your insights and such but if there is a market that day, your focus needs to revolve on that market on this day IMO. Thanks.
    • PB
      Patrick B.
      10 November 2020 @ 19:35
      Thank you for your service
  • PD
    Pierre-Luc D.
    10 November 2020 @ 16:02
    I found that there was good information in this video and I enjoyed the discussion between Ash and Ed as usual. However, I was definitely looking forward for a daily briefing yesterday following the wild moves in the markets and I found it disappointing that this was not one.
  • UM
    Ulf M.
    9 November 2020 @ 22:58
    Actually quite disappointing to see a pre recorded clip on a day as volatile as today.
    • MS
      Mark S.
      9 November 2020 @ 23:49
      Agree. Couldn't they have gotten Roger Hirst on live to discuss the EU markets, Brexit impact. Perhaps with a lead-in from Remi on Covid stats.
    • DS
      David S.
      10 November 2020 @ 00:49
      #freecontenttrollingfornewsubs
    • TL
      Tom L.
      10 November 2020 @ 13:28
      Agreed I stopped watching as soon as they said it was perecorded on Thursday, and saw the video rating!
  • GT
    Gary T.
    10 November 2020 @ 12:25
    I found value in this. Would rather have quality info than quick hot-take or sound bytes anyway. Let's see what the next DB brings. Chill & cheers.
  • MT
    Mike T.
    10 November 2020 @ 11:51
    $0.02 cents on the vaccine "news" to those getting overly excited and what it means for America, look up the term COVAX, yes Covax which is not a typo. COVAX is a WHO programme to ensure worldwide fair and equitable access to approved vaccines. Procurement and Distribution decisions will be made through COVAX not just by individual governments. The basic premise is all countries irrespective of rich or poor will get 'some' vaccine, it will not be some countries (the rich ones) get all the vaccine. To all intents and purposes with the exception of the USA at present not part of WHO (Trump decision) the entire rest of the World, including China have signed up. Biden is already on record as saying the US will get back into WHO again and therefore is it not reasonable to suggest if once the US is back in the WHO must be highly likely US will soon sign up as a participating country to COVAX. https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax. Unlike the Pfizer vaccine, and many other of the promising candidates which during storage and distribution has to be kept at -70C, the UK Imperial College/Oxford University candidate (also in final stage 3) can be kept stable at room temperatures.
  • RJ
    Raoul J.
    10 November 2020 @ 11:48
    Gold was green yesterday? Was he smoking pot?
    • RJ
      Raoul J.
      10 November 2020 @ 11:49
      ok my bad, pre-recorded 'daily brief' lol
  • PW
    Patrick W.
    10 November 2020 @ 11:24
    Was going to watch, but after the comments, Il just go watch something else more useful...
  • TR
    Tadej R.
    10 November 2020 @ 10:02
    RealVision > Netflix :)
  • RD
    Riki D.
    10 November 2020 @ 05:43
    There's plenty of reason to question the veracity of the media annoucement from Pfizer last night. Not to say they don't have a potential vaccine, but the press release is atypical for medical breakthroughs, although not in these times apparently. Moderna did something similar in th recent past because the pressure is on these big Pharma companies to beat the competition. 1. The trial is not double blinded and therefore subject to bias - Pfizer has access to data when typically that would only be given to the sponsoring third party such as the FDA or NIH. 2. The data has not been released on efficacy, short, mid or long term. 3. No peer reviews have been made. 4. Initial data is based on 94 patients only. 5. Pfizer is one of the few companies not to adhere to the US FDA COVID19 trial protocols. Add to the above, Pfizer shares only clocked up a 7.69% gain for the day and ended toward the bottom of the range. For such a significant potential treatment breakthrough with global implications, you'd expect at least a 50%+ gain. The market is not confident and seen similar press releases which subsequently went south. This feels like a marketing release to get ahead of those companies that are adhereing to the USA COVID19 trial protocols.
    • CD
      Christopher D.
      10 November 2020 @ 08:25
      Great points which i haven't seen in the non specialised press i read (they focused on market impact and quoted Pfizer and BioNtech reps who said its a great day for the world...). If you have a source that would be fab. I'll check the lancet in the meantime.
  • CD
    C D.
    10 November 2020 @ 05:41
    I don't think he's in a position to "burn down the house".
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    10 November 2020 @ 05:21
    Hopefully the lack of DB today will be made up with some expert interviews to figure out what this vaccine really means...
  • CN
    Christopher N.
    10 November 2020 @ 05:09
    As another said, I cannot see the comments anymore on my iPhone app. I signed to the desktop to see these comments below which appear as normal. many a little tough on the show today, big day to miss the daily commentary, but still enjoyed show.
  • DG
    David G.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:02
    Relax everyone, I'll update. The market popped on vaccine news, led by energy, transportation, industrials, and things of that nature, leading to profit taking on things not of that nature due to the gift in market strength this morning. The thinking is probably that the vaccine news puts a clock on the extended tech names that benefit from lock downs, as well as the threat of interest rate rising economic activity. We will have to see if there is further follow through going into the rest of the week. Since the averages are tech heavy at the top, the vaccine news could lead to a sell off of the extended tech names, and a filling of the gaps on the strong sectors. Timing is everything, but the thought should be to rotate in to Industrials, gaming, energy after this time, as well as the longer term reflation plays of Gold, and commodities in general. Be on the look out deep sector rotation, Trump shenanigans, government shut down, delayed stimulus, and short term Covid-19 problems, leading to a dollar run up. Watch the dollar closely, once it has its last hurrah, the reflation play will be a lay-up. That's my opinion based on market observations, and hours of RV over the last two months or so. Godspeed.
    • VR
      Vladimir R.
      10 November 2020 @ 00:14
      Haha.. well done ;-)
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      10 November 2020 @ 00:23
      David .... YOU'RE HIRED !
    • RA
      Robert A.
      10 November 2020 @ 00:26
      Well played David.
    • DA
      Dina A.
      10 November 2020 @ 05:04
      Thanks! This is exactly what I came here looking for :)
  • AD
    Adam D.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:25
    I'm 35 seconds in. I think: uhoh, another "plug real vision" episode. I scroll down to comment. Read the comments. Don't even bother watching. Thank you fellow subscribers for commenting on this crap before I did, and saving my time.
    • RA
      Robert A.
      10 November 2020 @ 04:35
      Hate to say it as I have RARELY had occasion to thumb down a DB, but I agree Adam. Based on RV’s excellent curation I was really looking forward to today’s DB.....Gold and the Miners hammered, US $ action, VIX dropped, KBE and KRE screamed higher, Nasdaq traded juxtaposed to many of the other markets and Raoul “cleaned up” some of his positions on today’s “Pro” Macro Insiders posting....really thought RV’s curation secret sauce would be forthcoming. Not sure who dropped the ball, but a day like this is when the DB should come through for us. Ash, Ed, Max, Raoul—lesson learned?
  • JM
    Jason M.
    10 November 2020 @ 04:06
    Getting a little "woke" on the rvdb
  • DM
    Damien M.
    10 November 2020 @ 03:44
    Wow if there ever was a day not to do a pre recorded show.
  • JD
    Jesse D.
    10 November 2020 @ 03:31
    I can’t see comments anymore?
  • MT
    Mark T.
    10 November 2020 @ 03:31
    My first thumbs down for Real Vision. The weekend and yesterday saw big risk events occur. Very disappointed that you did not cover this. My main motivation for paying the fees is to get daily commentary which I build into my schedule. This video is a waste of my time.
  • GD
    Greg D.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:59
    The first real vision video that I have turned off. The biggest day on markets in a very long time and they have completely missed it.
    • VD
      Violeta D.
      10 November 2020 @ 03:06
      I agree. I listen to the DB because it provides a summary of what happened that day. I like when the discussion after is related to it. Today was even more important for me because I was trying to make sense of asset classes moves that seemed contrary.
  • GS
    GEORGE S.
    10 November 2020 @ 02:53
    Had to double check i was looking at a video from Nov 10th and not from 3 days ago.
  • lv
    leon v.
    10 November 2020 @ 02:52
    I was going to watch the DB, but decided not to waste my 30 minutes precious time after I saw the comments below. I am a Pro member, love the Flash Update Report from Raoul though.
  • DM
    Don M.
    10 November 2020 @ 02:35
    On a day they announced a vaccine, this was very disappointing.
  • SN
    Stefan N.
    10 November 2020 @ 02:34
    Shame RV couldn’t provide real time commentary on the vaccine and election developments. Hopefully we get some insights over the next 24 hours..
  • RL
    Remmelt L.
    10 November 2020 @ 01:48
    Please could we see Roger every Thursday. His analysis gives me always.....
  • DT
    David T.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:49
    The DB needs to rediscover itself. It's not clear what the DB is about anymore. No mentioning of USD whole last week, while it was a major story. However, they plug Bitcoin in every video now.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      10 November 2020 @ 01:39
      Hate to say it, talking Raoul's book on that topic. Wonder if it is like our politics the percentage of investors into bitcoin and those that aren't.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    10 November 2020 @ 01:37
    RV continues to work through their formatting. Believe they have made some positive changes by focusing on certain topics on certain days. It is a macro site, so argument can be made that interviews are not based on what happened in the market that day as macro is a longer term discussion. However, with a daily briefing show, it suggests that there is an overview of that day. Like many, have found this to be an interesting segment. And as others stated, with the wild market today, may have wanted to do a short overview to introduce this segment vs missing today's market all together. Don't let getting a polished video published interfere with what your subscribers are seeking. Down and dirty would have been OK today. Very entrepreneurial. I too quit listening as I have too much other stuff to go read for tomorrow.
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    10 November 2020 @ 01:18
    I enjoyed the discussion, and found it worthwhile, but it was NOT a Daily Briefing, and filing it under that title is misleading, to say the least. I would much prefer to have had Haley, Peter, or any of the regulars just give us the 3-4 minute daily update and call it done. I understand the need to take holidays, although probably not on days the market is trading, at least with respect to the DB. This is particularly the case for today, where the market action was so extreme, along with the news that went along with it. Clearly no one could know last week that it would be so, but that's part of rolling with the punches.
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:50
    One would have thought that as the day's news unfolded, someone would have said "we may actually need to do a live show today"... At least get Max and Jack on
    • DT
      David T.
      10 November 2020 @ 00:59
      Yap, get Jack over at least.
  • RT
    Richard T.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:54
    Hey Guys! "Denial is not a river in Egypt."
  • IM
    Indranath M.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:50
    This is not a briefing for the day of Nov 9 , 2020. By far. There was a lot of market action today amid vaccine news ; was expecting commentary on that.
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:19
    Big news day ... Big market day .. and the DB is AWOL ?? C'mon Man....save the questions and answers for Saturdays.
    • DS
      David S.
      10 November 2020 @ 00:45
      #dumbeddown
  • DS
    David S.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:44
    Meg Whitman....Good Lord. Why not Julia Roberts?
  • DS
    David S.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:41
    Ed....Come on' man...SCOTUS will cancel the "extra" middle of the night ballots per the PA legislature and not the PA courts...PA constitution and US constitution breach....State by state with these scumbags. What a flamed republic this has become. Chasing the president with these fools for 4 years before he even took the oath. #Travesity
  • MB
    Mickel B.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:19
    I was looking forward to today's analysis, but, well... Guess not. Not a good day for a pre-recorded episode unfortunately.
  • SN
    Stefan N.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:17
    Shame RV couldn’t hustle together some bodies for commentary on vaccine and election. Hopefully we get some up to date analysis at least tomorrow...🤷‍♂️
  • SN
    Stefan N.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:15
    Shame RV couldn’t provide up to date commentary on the vaccine, the election, and it’s possible impact going forward. Hopefully the team can hustle some bodies together at least for tomorrow...🤷‍♂️
  • MT
    MICHAEL T.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:06
    A little less self-advertising please. Yawn.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:04
    Ha - French league? Thanks Ash and Ed. Enjoyed the discussion. Not the easiest topics to talk about.
  • MJ
    Marc J.
    10 November 2020 @ 00:02
    To echo all previous comments, really, today, prerecorded?
  • DH
    David H.
    9 November 2020 @ 23:56
    Great discussion. Heavy educational value as always. I can read the Wall Street Journal to find out what happened in the "news" today but these conversations substantially enhance my thinking.
  • NG
    Neil G.
    9 November 2020 @ 23:50
    Usually love these, but couldn't have been worse timing for a pre-filming. Bad luck I suppose.
  • MM
    Melissa M.
    9 November 2020 @ 23:46
    Had to stop. Nothing but an RV commercial. Will go find the news elsewhere today.
  • WT
    William T.
    9 November 2020 @ 23:36
    Really?? Thursday. Hold on, I need to finish reading last week's newspaper
  • JA
    Jordan A.
    9 November 2020 @ 23:25
    Wtf is this! You guys are just going to leave us hanging on a day like today? I guess you get what you pay for.
  • RC
    Robert C.
    9 November 2020 @ 23:03
    Where are the comments?
  • AK
    Aurimas K.
    9 November 2020 @ 22:56
    We need todays discussion!