Comments
Transcript
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RYLove the special guests ... Superb
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CMSolid. Always prefer Long Term thinking in RVDB.
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SBExtremely good interview
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RMOn GDP annual growth, just to be clear for viewers, sounds like Jared is talking nominal growth rates while the chart appeared to show real GDP growth rates. Real GDP has not exceeded 3% since 2005 per US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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RSOh Myrtle Beach describes this guy well
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JBReal vision essential is now just underwhelming and very disappointing to older members: a bit of crypto content, a bit of CEO industry or company insights, a bit of Macro. So Macro is 1/3 and majority of the exciting content is under RV pro.. I can also access a lot of the content directly on your pro guest’s other platforms at no cost. You need to rethink your sub packages.
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TCHYG might be ok due to diversification and they Fed supporting HYG in terms of liquidity (so it feels like Jared has a valid point there). That said, the Fed can't underpin bankruptcies of zombies, so we are going to have a huge insolvency phase moving forward. That feels like if it gets big enough, it will eventually snowball into the NAV of HYG and drive the price down naturally, although that could take a long time... Flows...
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AAGreat discussion!
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TCOk, one other thing. The Q2 GDP number is not exactly misleading, it simply needs to be taken into context as numbers that follow it. The calculation of quarterly GDP numbers has a form of weighted moving average that can produce extreme values when month to month data over the measurement period is volatile. Makes the upside numbers misleading as well. When a formula doesn't work as intended, relying on it is risky outside of the assumption that others are relying on it and using that as input to your respective decisions...
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JADoesn't like Treasuries, but HYG is ok? If you believe the Fed is going to support HYG, then you kind of have to believe the Fed is going to lock the curve into place no matter what happens. So in the end, the spread is simply a function of risk of defaults reducing the actual payout of the bonds held in HYG. Not sure I get that point of view, unless the idea is simply to damn the torpedos and go for the highest yield and ignore the underlying issues.
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DRReally good. All simple stuff but loaded of common sense, always good to get back to basics. I liked the tech bubble analogy to BTC behavior, brilliant.
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AGJared is probably one of my favorite guests. I've gotten to follow so many brilliant people on Twitter due to RV. Appreciate y'all!
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SY"MMT is currency debasement with an academic veneer." "Selling too early is the biggest sin!" "Bitcoin is 10 to 20 years trade." Great interview! Jared Dillian just became one of my favourites!
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sjJared's asset allocation is intresting, its seems a modified Golden Butterfly portfolio with a small change, instead of 20% SCV(small cap value) it has 20% real estate.
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JKDoes anyone have a link to the leaked Stan druckenmiller speech that is talked about near the end of the video ?
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XMWhat can you say? Mr. Dillian is a tour de force in the world of personal finance. When I listen to him I find myself hanging on every word. I highly recommend listening to his excellent radio show weekdays at 6 PM (EST). The link is on his website. Cheers.
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DSI can see the dollar declining against gold, land and Bitcoin. Do investors really think it will decline a substantially against the Euro, Pound, Yen, Yuan, Ruble? I thought everyone was rushing to the basement. DLS
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NITony Greer says the market has priced in Trump. Jared Dillian says the market has priced in Biden. Are you the tiebreaker Ash?
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RBAsh, is Jared referring to Jawad Mian when he quotes the "if you want to bet against America, buy stocks" tweet?
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JMI thought Jared said he had an investment in Canadian equities in his portfolio but I believe he was short CIBC for quite some time. I wonder if he is still short?
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DSExcellent discussion. Mr. Dillian is smart, experienced, and straight forward. Within a topic Mr. Bennington used each question to learn more about the prior answer. This requires a lot of interviewing skills and experience on Mr. Bennington's part a la the interview with Dr. Roubini. This cannot be done often. You need to dialog on a Socratic level where understanding Mr. Dillian’s approach to markets is the end game. As you know, I am not always so effusive. Following up on Mr. Harrison's point that seasonally adjusted data can be misleading, I would suggest that you put up both charts when possible just to see if there is a difference. If there is no real difference, the non-seasonally adjusted chart is my preference. DLS
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MAA lot of traders here are doing the inflation play. Interesting..Probably this is what Druckenmiller said. The problem is he can change is mind at any time and you would never know it until it's too late..
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VNnot a particularly new idea https://www.permanentportfoliofunds.com/permanent-portfolio.html also replacing Fixed Income with HYG, which has a correlation of what? 0.9 to stocks defeats the purpose
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FGI'm very impressed by Jared
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INOne of my favourite segments on RV DB. And my guy Jared said "Beyond Meat" which is a favourite of mine and where my ideology aligns.
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MCMr Dillian is using something similar to Chris Cole's Artemis 100 year portfolio. Rebalancing after 1 year and a day (for LT capital gains) when the target allocation gets out of whack, say 10% or more, would be the other part.
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LB"The next five years...." I think the end of the line is a LOT closer than that...