Daily Briefing – October 8, 2020

Published on
October 8th, 2020
Duration
25 minutes


Daily Briefing – October 8, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ed Harrison, and Roger Hirst

Published on: October 8th, 2020 • Duration: 25 minutes

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by managing editor, Roger Hirst, to talk stimulus, currencies, and the Treasury market. Roger provides his thoughts on the latest Fed minutes by discussing how the Fed is setting up inflation expectations through TIPS as well as holding rates low for the next few years. The difficulties, he says, will be in maintaining inflation expectations while not allowing for yields to be drive upward. This leads into a discussion about currencies where Roger elaborates how a weaker dollar will lead to a stronger euro and yen, setting the stage for an unfavorable deflationary scenario for Europe and Japan. They also talk about the dollar's slow grind to the downside, how increasing bond volatility would creep into other assets, and how U.S. markets are pricing in for fiscal stimulus regardless of who wins the presidential election. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin explains the back-and-forth on fiscal stimulus negotiations and why the Fed could issue a monetary policy offset to try and sustain economic momentum. Click here to go to Lyn Alden's forum on the impact of fiscal policy on different asset classes and submit questions ahead of time: http://rvtv.io/lyn-alden

Comments

Transcript

  • GB
    GREGORY B.
    12 October 2020 @ 11:43
    Is that a landline behind Roger? Or does Roger display his old rotary phone as antique retro art?
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    8 October 2020 @ 23:54
    Still hold a view that there won't be any stimulus before the elections and I don't think it's Trump because it suits him to have stimulus. As long as Dems think they can hurt Trump by not doing a deal they will stick with $2.4tn but if their polls show people are seeing them as responsible for not getting free money then Dems will settle for lower stimulus. In the meantime I expect markets to fall again and just bought some shorts - with very tight stop losses in case I am wrong. Let's see if I this will be three out of three of I'll give some of the profits. Last two times it worked but as they say.. previous performance is not an indicator of future.. lol.
    • AT
      Adelina T.
      12 October 2020 @ 11:22
      Agree on the stimulus. Incentives for Dems are low and Trump have not played his hand well. Although no longer as convinced about how sensitive the market is to this now, after that big initial reaction to the Trump tweet I wonder if it is more accepted now that there will not be anything before the election, but there will be something big after in most scenarios. Biden with Mitch M still in charge of the Senate is probably the worst scenario from a stimulus perspective.
  • MJ
    Marcus J.
    8 October 2020 @ 22:21
    You're punking us with that hair Roger
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      8 October 2020 @ 22:29
      He is totally punking you. Actually it’s me because right before we came on I told him he should puff his hair up to get a rise out of you lot
    • jG
      james G.
      8 October 2020 @ 23:34
      Got me ... looks like Little Richard. :-))
    • wm
      william m.
      9 October 2020 @ 04:05
      Hair by sideshow Bob! ;-)
    • JF
      James F.
      9 October 2020 @ 11:17
      It's early days, but increased hair puffiness seems to inversely correlate with the Citi Economic Surprise index. As if the surprises to the downside are accompanied by much head scratching and hair roughing. Not sure how to use this information though. It is, of course, infrequent and lagging, which is a shame. And far less nuanced than the wine rack index of earlier in the year. I miss that one. Can we get it back Roger? It was instrumental in my decision to go 1000% irresponsibly long during in the June pullbacks. I definitely know the bottom (of a bottle) when I see one....
    • DG
      Dave G.
      9 October 2020 @ 18:33
      Really who f'in cares about his hair. Ashes mic or what's on Raouls pool table. 🥱
  • EP
    Elton P.
    9 October 2020 @ 06:57
    TG and RH are my fav. Not into all that other crypto stuff
    • CP
      Carlos P.
      9 October 2020 @ 15:42
      I agree!
    • PB
      Patrick B.
      9 October 2020 @ 17:31
      TG?
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    9 October 2020 @ 17:21
    Roger you talk of REAL YIELDS But never define what your inflation measure Is?
  • LS
    Lewis S.
    9 October 2020 @ 05:18
    Roger 'Cosmo Kramer' Hirst
  • WA
    Wissam A.
    9 October 2020 @ 04:46
    Where is Tyler Neville?
  • dm
    darren m.
    9 October 2020 @ 03:43
    Roger is the smartest man on real vision!
  • BK
    Binyam K.
    9 October 2020 @ 02:03
    Great discussion. Thank you!
  • MH
    Muddshir H.
    8 October 2020 @ 22:47
    Can anyone explain whats rogers was saying about vix 32?
    • HB
      Herman B.
      9 October 2020 @ 00:55
      Hi Muddshir H, I believe he is referring to VIX future prices around election date. https://www.cboe.com/products/futures/vx-cboe-volatility-index-vix-futures
  • DF
    David F.
    9 October 2020 @ 00:31
    RVDU’s are packed full of information and I truly enjoy the mix of individuals who participate! I am here in NYC and there is real concern about further episodes of social unrest... Is there a reason there has been no discussion with regard to the extreme polarization within the US as it relates to VAR? The news stories about the FBI arresting militia group members who were plotting to kidnap a sitting governor and the president unwilling to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should pose a risk to markets?
  • MT
    Mark T.
    8 October 2020 @ 23:22
    It's hard for me to believe that trump is introducing confusion and chaos into stimulus talks. It's just not like him to do things without a plan or acting on impulse and only being motivated by personal interests.
    • LF
      Liam F.
      8 October 2020 @ 23:34
      In fact and indeed! A master strategist. A brilliant tactician. A genius of the very best stability. A General's General, and a Doctor from the school of "I talked to some while in hospital U".
    • NL
      Nikola L.
      8 October 2020 @ 23:58
      love your sarcasm.. and you are right about "..to do things without a plan or acting on impulse and only being motivated by personal interests". That is what he does but on the stimulus I think he is listening to someone else who actually has a plan because Trump's offer I find it reasonable - for once. I might be wrong but the way I see it it's the Dems who are not coming to the table by going for such massive package.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    8 October 2020 @ 22:58
    If possible and if not.. I still love Daily Brief: Ed, any chance to upload Morning Briefing bit earlier? I am in Sydney and love listening to the Daily Brief before ASX opens. Helps me reinforce my opinion on my trading strategy.. May not be possible but if it is I will really appreciate if you can upload 20min earlier. I hate daylight saving.. Until time changed Daily Brief had perfect timing - for me.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      8 October 2020 @ 23:06
      Dang. Sorry about that. My understanding is the production team want it to go out the same time every day and need until 6PM ET to edit video and add in charts. I am not sure they can make it 5:40 but I will ask. Also in 3 weeks, we end DAT. So things will go back to normal then.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    8 October 2020 @ 22:43
    Nice job by Haley today. As usual, the Ed/Roger show was first rate analysis.
  • SS
    S S.
    8 October 2020 @ 22:26
    RogHAIR Hirst strikes again.